Topic: Decision Analysis for Development Programs

Expected Value of Sample Information

Eliciting Phase-Transition Probabilities from Evidence

Dependence Among Development Risks

Deriving Go Or No-Go Thresholds from Payoffs

Defining Success by Estimand and Endpoint

Decision Trees for Sequential Development

Conditional Versus Cumulative Probability of Success

Common Misinterpretations of Probability of Success

Choosing Sample Size by EVSI

Calibration Diagnostics for Probability-of-Success Models