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Cutaneous Melanoma Phase 2 Binary Endpoint NCT02129075

A Vaccine (CDX-1401) With or Without a Biologic Drug (CDX-301) for the Treatment of Patients With Stage IIB-IV Melanoma: Complete Statistical Analysis

This phase II randomized study compared CDX-1401 plus poly-ICLC with the same regimen preceded by CDX-301 in patients with stage IIB-IV melanoma. The primary outcome was a T-cell response to NY-ESO-1 at 12 weeks after final vaccination.

Trial start: 2014-04-09  ·  Enrollment: 60  ·  Sponsor: National Cancer Institute (NCI)
Scope of this record

This page provides an independent statistical analysis and educational interpretation of publicly reported results. ClinicalTrials.gov provides the official trial registry record. Numerical trial results on this page are restricted to the results posted in the ClinicalTrials.gov record; calculations added by Clinical Biostats are labelled as such.

1. Trial at a Glance

This page covers the registry results for A Vaccine (CDX-1401) With or Without a Biologic Drug (CDX-301) for the Treatment of Patients With Stage IIB-IV Melanoma (NCT02129075), a randomized phase 2 study. The primary outcome is Immune T-cell Response to NY-ESO-1.

60
Enrollment
Phase 2
2
Arms
In the primary outcome
-15.1 pts
Risk difference
Arm II (CDX-1401 and Poly-ICLC)
-41.4 to 11.2 pts
95% CI
Two-sided
FeatureRegistry value
ClinicalTrials.gov identifierNCT02129075
PhasePhase 2
ConditionCutaneous Melanoma, Melanoma, Melanoma of Unknown Primary
AllocationRandomized
Design modelParallel
MaskingNone (open label)
Enrollment60
Arms in the primary outcome2
Lead sponsorNational Cancer Institute (NCI)
Results postedYes

2. Clinical Question

Population

Patients with stage IIB-IV melanoma, including the melanoma types and stages listed in the registry record. The primary outcome counts participants with a positive immune response; the record does not report the primary outcome population in more detail.

Intervention

CDX-301, a recombinant Flt3 ligand, given with CDX-1401 and poly-ICLC. In Arm I, CDX-301 was scheduled around the first cycle and on days 1-3 of the second cycle; CDX-1401 and poly-ICLC were given during treatment cycles.

Comparator

CDX-1401 and poly-ICLC without CDX-301, as in Arm II. The registry describes treatment repeating every 28 days for 4 cycles in the absence of disease progression or unacceptable toxicity.

Primary question

How many participants in each arm had an immune T-cell response to NY-ESO-1 at 12 weeks after final vaccination, and how did the response compare between the arms?

The study addresses whether adding CDX-301 is associated with a different measured immune response when CDX-1401 and poly-ICLC are also administered. The registry describes CDX-1401 as a vaccine directed at NY-ESO-1 and describes CDX-301 as a biologic drug that may increase dendritic cells. These descriptions provide the biological rationale for measuring an immune response; they do not establish that a measured response translates into a clinical benefit.

The primary endpoint is an immune assay outcome, not tumor recurrence or survival. Those outcomes appear among the secondary outcomes, but the posted record does not include analyses for them. The study therefore chiefly informs the recorded immune-response comparison, and the endpoint should be interpreted on that basis.

3. Trial Design

The registry classifies this as a phase II, randomized, open-label, multicenter study with a parallel-group design. Participants were assigned to one of two treatment arms. Masking was listed as none, so the trial was open-label. The sponsor was the National Cancer Institute.

Arm I received CDX-301, CDX-1401, and poly-ICLC. The schedule describes CDX-301 injections around the first cycle and during days 1-3 of the second cycle. CDX-1401 was given on day 1 of each cycle, and poly-ICLC on days 1-2 of each cycle. Arm II received CDX-1401 and poly-ICLC without CDX-301. The record describes treatment repeating every 28 days for 4 cycles in the absence of disease progression or unacceptable toxicity. The Arm I schedule description ends before completing its final sentence, so the record does not report the full corresponding stopping-condition wording for that arm.

The registry lists planned enrollment as 60. The primary endpoint listings use denominators of 28 in Arm I and 26 in Arm II; the secondary immune-response listing uses 30 and 28. These endpoint-specific denominators are not identical, and the registry record does not report why. The adverse-event record lists 30 participants at risk in each arm. These are different reported measures and should not be combined into a newly calculated participant total.

The start date is 2014-04-09, primary completion is listed as 2016-03-28, and study status is completed. The record does not report the original sample-size justification, the detailed allocation procedure, or further information about the participating centers.

4. Participant Flow and Accounting

The registry reports how participants moved through each stage of the study. All counts below are exactly as posted; missing counts are not inferred from other stages.

Before assignment: No enrolled participants were excluded from the study before assignment to groups.

Overall Study

StageArm I (CDX-301, CDX-1401, and Poly-ICLC)Arm II (CDX-1401 and Poly-ICLC)
STARTED3030
COMPLETED3030
NOT COMPLETED00

5. Baseline Characteristics

The table reproduces the baseline characteristics posted in the registry, which describe the participants analysed at baseline and help show whether the randomized groups were comparable.

CharacteristicUnitArm I (CDX-301, CDX-1401, and Poly-ICLC)Arm II (CDX-1401 and Poly-ICLC)Total
Participants analysed303060
Age, Categorical: <=18 yearsParticipants000
Age, Categorical: Between 18 and 65 yearsParticipants222547
Age, Categorical: >=65 yearsParticipants8513
Age, Continuousyears54.6 (SD 13.4)51.6 (SD 14.5)53.1 (SD 13.9)
Sex: Female, Male: FemaleParticipants10919
Sex: Female, Male: MaleParticipants202141
Ethnicity (NIH/OMB): Hispanic or LatinoParticipants011
Ethnicity (NIH/OMB): Not Hispanic or LatinoParticipants302858
Ethnicity (NIH/OMB): Unknown or Not ReportedParticipants011
Race (NIH/OMB): American Indian or Alaska NativeParticipants000
Race (NIH/OMB): AsianParticipants000
Race (NIH/OMB): Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific IslanderParticipants000
Race (NIH/OMB): Black or African AmericanParticipants011
Race (NIH/OMB): WhiteParticipants302858
Race (NIH/OMB): More than one raceParticipants000
Race (NIH/OMB): Unknown or Not ReportedParticipants011

6. Primary Endpoint

The registry lists the primary outcome as Immune T-cell Response to NY-ESO-1, measured over At 12 weeks after final vaccination.

ElementRegistry entry
Result typeCount Of Participants
Measure of spreadnot applicable
UnitParticipants
Endpoint classificationBinary Endpoint

The primary endpoint is the count of participants with an immune T-cell response to NY-ESO-1, assessed at 12 weeks after final vaccination. The registry says response rates were to be presented for each assay, antigen, treatment arm, and assessed time point, with corresponding 95% confidence intervals calculated using the score test method. The endpoint is therefore a binary participant-level outcome: a participant is counted according to whether the assay indicates a positive response.

Measuring an immune response is relevant to the stated biological rationale: CDX-1401 targets NY-ESO-1, and CDX-301 is intended to affect dendritic-cell availability. The outcome can describe whether the recorded immune response differs between treatment arms. It does not directly measure tumor control, recurrence, or survival, and it cannot by itself establish whether any immune response changes those clinical outcomes.

The registry also describes a comparison of the cohorts at the peak time point using Fisher's exact test, with a one-sided significance threshold of 0.10. The endpoint listing does not give assay-level response definitions, the number of assessments contributing to the primary result, or additional details about how peak time was selected. Those details are not reported in the registry record.

7. Results Posted in the Registry

Risk difference: Arm II (CDX-1401 and Poly-ICLC)

-15.1

95% CI: -41.4 to 11.2 percentage points

Recalculated from the posted summary statistics

Primary outcome by arm, with 95% confidence intervals
Primary outcome by arm with 95% confidence intervals17.629.240.752.263.775.3Arm I (CDX-301, CDX-1401, and… (n=28)Arm II (CDX-1401 and Poly-ICL… (n=26)% of participants (95% CI)
Treatment effect versus the control arm
Forest plot of risk difference (percentage points) vs control (95% CI)Arm II (CDX-1401 and Poly-ICL…-46-33-21-9.013.1815risk difference (percentage points) vs control (95% CI)

8. Secondary Efficacy Endpoints

The registry also posts results for secondary outcomes. For each outcome below, the endpoint type, the test applied to the posted summary statistics, the result and its interpretation are given in turn. Secondary endpoints are usually not adjusted for multiple testing, so they support rather than confirm the primary finding.

Secondary outcomeTypeEffect measureEstimate (95% CI)Planning size, 80% power
T Cell Responses to Other Ongoing and Nascent Antitumor Response Antigens Associated With Melanoma (e.g. PRAME, MAGE-A3, p53, and gp1000) as Well as Memory and Chronic Viral Responses (CMV, EBV)Binary EndpointRisk difference+1.7 pts (-20.4 to 23.7)10,356 per arm

T Cell Responses to Other Ongoing and Nascent Antitumor Response Antigens Associated With Melanoma (e.g. PRAME, MAGE-A3, p53, and gp1000) as Well as Memory and Chronic Viral Responses (CMV, EBV)

Treatment effect versus the control arm
Forest plot of risk difference (percentage points) vs control (95% CI)Arm II (CDX-1401 and Poly-ICL…-24-14-3.456.781727risk difference (percentage points) vs control (95% CI)

The secondary outcomes broaden the study beyond the primary NY-ESO-1 immune-response question. They include T-cell responses to other antigens and memory or chronic viral responses, changes in peripheral blood cell subsets, tumor recurrence, and overall survival. The posted outcome information is uneven: an additional immune-response comparison has counts and a comparative summary, while the registry does not post analyses for the other listed outcomes.

The available secondary immune-response comparison does not add a clear, precise between-arm contrast to the primary result. Its uncertainty is broad, and its unadjusted p-value is 0.882. It is best regarded as contextual evidence about the wider immune-response measurements, not as an independent confirmation of the primary finding or as a clinical outcome result.

Secondary outcomes generally carry less weight than a prespecified primary endpoint because they may be exploratory, may involve multiple comparisons, and may be measured in smaller or different analysis populations. In this registry, the number of posted analyses is zero, and the record does not report a multiplicity plan. The possibility of many assays, antigens, time points, or outcome measures makes isolated secondary comparisons especially difficult to interpret without a clearly stated testing strategy.

The secondary listings also have different denominators and time frames. For the additional T-cell response outcome, the stated time frame is up to 12 weeks after final vaccination, whereas the primary outcome is specified at 12 weeks after final vaccination. The registry does not explain the denominator differences or describe how missing measurements were handled. The secondary findings therefore add limited context and cannot settle the primary uncertainty or support conclusions about recurrence or survival.

Secondary outcomes registered for this trial, for reference (only those above were recalculated):

9. Statistical Interpretation

Clinical Biostats interpretation

For the primary immune-response outcome, the posted counts are 15 participants in Arm I and 10 in Arm II. The denominators are 28 and 26, respectively. The posted comparative estimate is a negative risk difference for Arm II relative to Arm I, so its direction corresponds to a lower estimated response proportion in Arm II. The confidence interval spans values on both sides of no difference, and the unadjusted p-value is 0.266. Taken together, these figures do not provide a precise distinction between the arms: the data are compatible with effects in either direction.

The record describes a planned Fisher exact comparison with a one-sided threshold of 0.10 at the peak time point. It also contains no reported analyses in the outcome-analysis listings. The posted comparison should therefore be read as the result displayed for the outcome, not as confirmation that every detail of the described analysis was carried out as specified. There is no discrepancy flag in the record, but the registry does not provide a separate full statistical report or analysis output that would resolve those details.

The secondary immune-response outcome records 7 participants in each arm, with denominators of 30 and 28. Its posted risk-difference estimate is close to zero in direction and magnitude as represented by the listed estimate, while its confidence interval spans both positive and negative differences. Its unadjusted p-value is 0.882. This is another imprecise comparison; it does not establish equivalence between the arms. The secondary record describes responses to other antigens and memory or chronic viral responses, rather than the primary NY-ESO-1 outcome.

Neither the primary nor the posted secondary immune-response comparison should be treated as evidence about tumor recurrence or overall survival. Those outcomes are listed as secondary outcomes, but their analyses are not posted. Likewise, the counts cannot establish whether the treatment regimen changes patient-important outcomes. Interpretation should remain limited to the immune-response measurements and the uncertainty in their between-arm comparisons.

The randomized design supports a comparative question, but open-label conduct and the small endpoint denominators constrain how much can be inferred from the observed comparisons. The registry does not report details of assay adjudication, handling of missing assessments, or analysis populations. Without those details, it is not possible to determine whether all randomized participants were included in each endpoint analysis or how incomplete measurements were handled.

10. Statistical Methods Explained

For a binary endpoint, the response proportion is the number of participants recorded with a positive response divided by the endpoint denominator for that arm. A risk difference compares those proportions by subtraction. Its sign depends on the comparison order: the posted comparison is Arm II relative to Arm I, so a negative estimate indicates a lower estimated response proportion for Arm II. This is a description of the statistical measure, not a statement about treatment benefit.

What does a risk difference describe?

A risk difference is expressed on the probability scale and gives an absolute contrast between two response proportions. It is different from a risk ratio, which compares proportions multiplicatively, and an odds ratio, which compares odds. The posted comparison includes all three types of estimates. Because the endpoint is a participant count, each measure summarizes the observed positive-response outcomes in the two arms; none conveys the reasons for a response or its clinical importance.

The primary comparison lists a risk difference, a risk ratio, and an odds ratio, along with confidence limits and an unadjusted p-value. The secondary immune-response comparison has the same types of summary. The risk-difference interval is particularly useful for seeing the range of absolute between-arm contrasts compatible with the data under the method used. In both comparisons, the interval includes no difference. The interval should be considered alongside the estimate rather than reduced to a significant-or-not label.

Why use a confidence interval?

In general, a confidence interval expresses uncertainty in an estimate: it identifies a range of values compatible with the observed data under the method's assumptions. It does not give the probability that the true effect lies inside the particular interval, and it does not account automatically for every source of uncertainty, such as missing outcome data or selective reporting. The registry says that response rates were to have 95% confidence intervals calculated using the score test method. The comparative summaries also display confidence limits, but the posted record does not give a full description of the calculation used for each comparative interval.

For the planned primary test, the registry describes Fisher's exact test to compare the cohorts at the peak time point. This test is used for categorical outcomes in small samples and evaluates how compatible the observed allocation of positive responses is with the null hypothesis of no association, conditional on the margins. The registry states a one-sided p-value threshold of 0.10. A one-sided test assesses evidence in a specified direction; the registry record does not state the directional hypothesis in further detail. The displayed unadjusted p-value should not be assumed to be the same analysis as that planned test unless the record confirms the calculation and direction.

What does an unadjusted p-value tell the reader?

In general, a p-value describes how unusual the observed data, or data more extreme, would be under a specified null model and test. It is not the probability that the null hypothesis is true, nor is it a measure of the size or clinical importance of an effect. The posted primary comparison gives an unadjusted p-value of 0.266, and the secondary comparison gives an unadjusted p-value of 0.882. Those values should be interpreted with the estimates and intervals, and with caution because the record does not report a multiplicity adjustment or full analysis specification.

The primary outcome description discusses positive-response frequencies by assay, antigen, arm, and time point, and a comparison at peak time. That structure can involve multiple measurements. The record does not say how the peak time was selected or whether the displayed comparison accounts for the set of possible assays and time points. Such choices matter because repeated testing can increase the chance of a seemingly notable result arising by chance. No correction or other multiplicity strategy is reported in the registry record.

Why do denominators differ?

The endpoint denominators differ across the posted primary and secondary immune-response results, and the adverse-event risk sets are reported separately. In general, endpoint denominators can differ when outcome availability or analysis eligibility differs, but the reason in this trial is not reported in the registry record. The record also does not describe how missing assays were handled, whether participants were analyzed according to randomized assignment, or which population was intended for each analysis. It would be inappropriate to infer those procedures from the counts alone.

There are no reported analyses in the outcome-analysis listings. Thus, the registry supplies outcome counts and comparative summaries, while important implementation details remain unavailable. The statistical interpretation should be limited to the posted summaries and should not imply that the full planned analysis, missing-data approach, or analysis population can be reconstructed from them.

11. Confidence Intervals and Precision

The primary comparison is uncertain: its confidence interval for the risk difference extends across zero, meaning the posted data are compatible with a lower response proportion in Arm II, little or no difference, or a higher response proportion. The displayed estimate points toward a lower proportion in Arm II, but the interval does not pin down the size or even the direction of the underlying difference with precision. The unadjusted p-value is 0.266.

The endpoint counts are 15 of 28 in Arm I and 10 of 26 in Arm II. Those denominators are modest, so each participant's outcome has a meaningful influence on the observed proportion. The confidence interval communicates this sampling uncertainty, but it does not cover uncertainty from possible missing assessments, assay variation, or choices among measurement times and tests. The record does not report enough detail to quantify those additional sources.

The secondary immune-response comparison is also imprecise. Its risk-difference interval extends on both sides of no difference, and the unadjusted p-value is 0.882. The interval does not establish that the arms are alike; rather, it indicates that the data do not narrowly identify the magnitude or direction of a between-arm difference.

Confidence intervals are more informative when read as ranges of plausible effects under the statistical method, rather than as a pass/fail boundary. Here, the breadth of the intervals and the limited endpoint denominators argue against strong claims about the size of an immune-response contrast. The registry record does not report a prespecified precision target or the original design assumptions that would help judge the intended certainty.

12. Planning a Similar Trial: Sample Size

This is a planning illustration, not a re-evaluation of the original trial. It asks: if a new study wanted to detect a difference like the one observed, or a smaller one, how large would it need to be? It is deliberately not “observed power” of the finished trial, which is not a meaningful quantity.

Effect to detectParticipants per arm, 80% powerParticipants per arm, 90% power
100% of the observed effect170227
75% of the observed effect304407
50% of the observed effect687919
Sample size needed versus the size of the effect to detect
Sample size needed versus size of effect to detect1002005001,0002,00040%60%80%100%80% power90% powersize of effect to detect, as % of the effect observed (log vertical scale: participants per arm)
Treat these figures cautiously. The observed difference is imprecise: its confidence interval includes no difference at all. A sample size built on a noisy estimate can be far too small or too large, so the smaller-effect rows are the more cautious guide.
Method and assumptions. Two-sided α = 0.05, 1:1 allocation, pooled-variance normal approximation for two proportions (control proportion held at the observed value). Calculated for the comparison: Arm II (CDX-1401 and Poly-ICLC).

The sample-size figures are planning illustrations derived from the observed effect, not the trial's original design calculation. They are expressed as participants per arm, not as total participants or total events. The stated assumptions are a two-sided significance level of 0.05, equal allocation between the two arms, and a normal approximation. The effect used in each row is the stated fraction of the observed effect. The original sample-size assumptions are not reported in the registry record.

For the primary immune-response comparison, planning for 100% of the observed effect gives 170 participants per arm for 80% power and 227 participants per arm for 90% power. Planning for 75% of the observed effect gives 304 participants per arm for 80% power and 407 participants per arm for 90% power. Planning for 50% of the observed effect gives 687 participants per arm for 80% power and 919 participants per arm for 90% power.

In plain language, the 80% power column represents a planning target for the chance of detecting the specified effect under the stated assumptions if that effect is present. The 90% column uses a higher target chance of detection. These are design illustrations, not observed power. A smaller target effect requires more participants per arm because it is harder to distinguish from random variation.

The secondary immune-response planning figures are much larger: 10,356 and 13,863 participants per arm for 100% of the observed effect, 18,302 and 24,501 for 75%, and 40,935 and 54,800 for 50%, with the lower and higher figures in each pair corresponding to the 80% and 90% power targets. These values reflect the small observed secondary contrast used in the illustration; they should not be read as the trial's enrollment plan or as evidence that the study had a particular probability of success.

13. How the Sample Size Is Derived

Power is the probability that a study of a given size rejects the null hypothesis when a specific true effect exists. It depends on four things: the effect to detect, the variability of the outcome, the significance level (here a two-sided α of 0.05, so z1−α/2 = 1.960) and the desired power (z1−β = 0.842 for 80% and 1.282 for 90%).

Formula

n = [ z1−α/2 √(2p̄(1−p̄)) + z1−β √(p0(1−p0) + p1(1−p1)) ]2 / (p1 − p0)2

n is the number of participants in each arm, p0 and p1 are the control and treatment proportions, and p̄ is their average.

Worked calculation for this trial

  1. Control proportion p0 = 0.536; treatment proportion p1 = 0.385; average p̄ = 0.460.
  2. First term: z1−α/2 × √[2p̄(1−p̄)] = 1.96 × 0.7049 = 1.3815.
  3. Second term: z1−β × √[p0(1−p0) + p1(1−p1)] = 0.842 × 0.6967 = 0.5864.
  4. n = (1.3815 + 0.5864)2 / (-0.1511)2 = 169.6, rounded up to 170 participants per arm for 80% power.

The smaller-effect rows in the table above repeat the same calculation with the effect multiplied by 0.75 and 0.5 (for ratios, applied to the logarithm of the ratio).

R code

alpha <- 0.05
z_a   <- qnorm(1 - alpha / 2)          # two-sided
p0 <- 0.535714285714286                          # control proportion
p1 <- 0.384615384615385                          # treatment proportion
n_per_arm <- function(power, frac = 1) {
  q1 <- p0 + (p1 - p0) * frac               # smaller effect = fraction of the observed difference
  pbar <- (p0 + q1) / 2
  z_b <- qnorm(power)
  ceiling(round((z_a * sqrt(2 * pbar * (1 - pbar)) + z_b * sqrt(p0 * (1 - p0) + q1 * (1 - q1)))^2 / (q1 - p0)^2, 6))
}
for (f in c(1, 0.75, 0.5))
  cat(sprintf("%3.0f%% of observed effect: n per arm = %s (80%% power), %s (90%% power)\n", 100 * f,
              format(n_per_arm(0.80, f), big.mark = ","), format(n_per_arm(0.90, f), big.mark = ",")))

# Check against R's built-in function (unrounded n per arm)
cat("power.prop.test:", round(power.prop.test(p1 = p0, p2 = p1, power = 0.80)$n, 1), "\n")

# Simulation: how often does the z-test reject at the 80%-power sample size?
set.seed(2129075)
n    <- n_per_arm(0.80)
reps <- 20000
x0 <- rbinom(reps, n, p0); x1 <- rbinom(reps, n, p1)
ph <- (x0 + x1) / (2 * n)
z  <- ((x1 - x0) / n) / sqrt(ph * (1 - ph) * 2 / n)
cat(sprintf("Simulated power at n = %s per arm: %.3f (%d replicates)\n", format(n, big.mark = ","), mean(abs(z) > z_a, na.rm = TRUE), reps))

Output from running the code

100% of observed effect: n per arm = 170 (80% power), 227 (90% power)
 75% of observed effect: n per arm = 304 (80% power), 407 (90% power)
 50% of observed effect: n per arm = 687 (80% power), 919 (90% power)
power.prop.test: 169.6 
Simulated power at n = 170 per arm: 0.801 (20000 replicates)

The simulation draws many pairs of event counts at the planned sample size and counts how often the two-proportion z-test rejects the null. It should land close to the target power; at very small required sample sizes it can fall below it, because the normal approximation is rough there.

14. Multiplicity, Missing Data and Analysis Populations

The registry describes several immune-response assessments by assay, antigen, arm, and time point, including a comparison at the peak time point. It also lists secondary outcomes covering immune-cell subsets, tumor recurrence, and overall survival. With multiple measurements, repeated testing can increase the chance of a statistically notable result appearing by chance. The registry record does not report a multiplicity adjustment, a hierarchy for testing outcomes, or a plan for controlling the overall false-positive rate.

The primary endpoint description gives a 95% confidence-interval method and names Fisher's exact test for a cohort comparison at peak time, with a one-sided threshold of 0.10. This is not a complete account of all analysis decisions. The registry does not report how peak time was selected, whether there was a single assay definition for a positive response, or how the multiple antigens and time points were handled in the inferential plan. The outcome-analysis listings report no analyses.

Missing-data procedures are not reported in the registry record. The primary outcome denominators are 28 and 26, while the secondary immune-response denominators are 30 and 28. The adverse-event risk sets are 30 in each arm. These endpoint-specific counts do not establish why outcomes were unavailable or whether participants were excluded for other reasons. No imputation, sensitivity analysis, or missingness assumption is described.

The analysis population is also not reported in detail. The registry does not state whether the immune-response comparisons include all randomized participants, only participants with an evaluable assay, or another defined population. It is therefore not possible to determine from the posted results whether the estimates preserve the randomized comparison or how departures from the assigned treatment were handled. These omissions limit reproducibility and make the results harder to compare with a fully specified analysis report.

15. Safety Results

The registry reports serious adverse events as affected participants divided by participants at risk.

ArmParticipants with serious adverse eventsParticipants at riskPercentage
Arm I (CDX-301, CDX-1401, and Poly-ICLC)0300.0%
Arm II (CDX-1401 and Poly-ICLC)43013.3%
Participants with at least one serious adverse event
Serious adverse events by armArm I (CDX-301, CDX-1401, and…0.0%Arm II (CDX-1401 and Poly-ICL…13.3%% of participants with at least one serious adverse event

Other (non-serious) adverse events

Participants with at least one non-serious event at or above the registry's 0% reporting threshold.

ArmParticipants affected of at risk
Arm I (CDX-301, CDX-1401, and Poly-ICLC)30 of 30
Arm II (CDX-1401 and Poly-ICLC)30 of 30

Most frequent serious adverse event terms

Event termOrgan systemArm I (CDX-301, CDX-1401, and Poly-ICLC)Arm II (CDX-1401 and Poly-ICLC)
General disorders and administration site conditionsGeneral disorders0 of 301 of 30
Infections and infestationsInfections and infestationsn/a of 301 of 30
Nervous system disordersNervous system disordersn/a of 301 of 30
Pregnancy, puerperium and perinatal conditionsPregnancy, puerperium and perinatal conditionsn/a of 301 of 30

Most frequent non-serious adverse event terms

Event termOrgan systemArm I (CDX-301, CDX-1401, and Poly-ICLC)Arm II (CDX-1401 and Poly-ICLC)
General disorders and administration site conditionsGeneral disorders30 of 3030 of 30
Musculoskeletal and connective tissue disordersMusculoskeletal and connective tissue disorders20 of 3018 of 30
Nervous system disordersNervous system disorders17 of 3019 of 30
Gastrointestinal disordersGastrointestinal disorders15 of 3017 of 30
Skin and subcutaneous tissue disordersSkin and subcutaneous tissue disorders15 of 3014 of 30
InvestigationsInvestigations14 of 3014 of 30
Metabolism and nutrition disordersMetabolism and nutrition disorders15 of 3012 of 30
Respiratory, thoracic and mediastinal disordersRespiratory, thoracic and mediastinal disorders13 of 3013 of 30
Blood and lymphatic system disordersBlood and lymphatic system disorders13 of 3010 of 30
Infections and infestationsInfections and infestations7 of 309 of 30

Serious events with the highest arm-level rate: general disorders and administration site conditions (3.3%), infections and infestations (3.3%), nervous system disorders (3.3%), pregnancy, puerperium and perinatal conditions (3.3%).

Do not overextend the safety comparison. Serious-adverse-event counts are safety observations, not efficacy outcomes, and should not be combined with the primary result into a single benefit-risk number.

The adverse-event record lists 30 participants at risk for serious adverse events in each arm. It records 0 participants affected in Arm I and 4 in Arm II. These are counts of participants with a serious adverse event, not counts of all serious-event episodes. The record also lists 30 participants at risk for other adverse events and 30 affected in each arm.

The serious-event terms listed with the highest reported frequencies are general disorders and administration site conditions, infections and infestations, nervous system disorders, and pregnancy, puerperium and perinatal conditions; each is listed as 3.3%. The record does not provide additional detail about severity grades, event timing, relationship to treatment, or whether an individual participant could contribute to more than one term. Deaths are not reported in the registry record.

These safety figures are descriptive. The counts should be interpreted in light of the recorded risk sets and the limited information on event definitions and follow-up. They do not, by themselves, establish a causal treatment difference.

16. What the Result Does, and Does Not, Mean

The posted primary result describes immune T-cell responses to NY-ESO-1 at 12 weeks after final vaccination. The response counts are 15 in Arm I and 10 in Arm II, with endpoint denominators of 28 and 26. The comparative estimate is in the direction of a lower response proportion in Arm II, but its confidence interval spans no difference and the unadjusted p-value is 0.266. The data therefore leave substantial uncertainty about the size and direction of the between-arm contrast.

This finding is about an immune assay outcome. It does not establish that CDX-301 changes tumor recurrence, overall survival, or any other clinical outcome. Those outcomes are listed in the registry, but their analyses are not posted. Nor does a response count by itself show that a measured immune response is clinically meaningful or durable.

The result also does not show that the arms are equivalent. A nonsignificant comparison and an interval spanning no difference do not demonstrate equivalence; a formal equivalence or noninferiority question requires a prespecified margin and an appropriate design and analysis. Such a margin is not reported in the registry record.

Because the study was open-label and the endpoint denominators are limited, the result should be read as an uncertain comparative estimate rather than a definitive answer about the treatment regimens. The record does not report assay-level response criteria, missing-data handling, or a detailed analysis population. Those gaps constrain assessment of how the reported counts were assembled. The most supportable interpretation is limited to the immune-response summaries and their uncertainty.

17. Why This Trial Matters Statistically

This trial illustrates the distinction between a biological measurement and a clinical outcome. The primary endpoint counts participants with a T-cell response to NY-ESO-1, a measure connected to the study's vaccine rationale. Such an endpoint can be useful for describing immune activity, but it does not substitute for outcomes such as tumor recurrence or survival. Keeping that distinction clear prevents an immune-response result from being overstated as evidence about clinical benefit.

It also illustrates why a point estimate should not be interpreted alone. The primary comparative estimate points in one direction, but the confidence interval spans no difference and the unadjusted p-value is 0.266. The secondary immune-response comparison is similarly uncertain. These features show how a study can produce numerical contrasts without providing a precise answer about the underlying effect.

The record is also a useful example of why denominator and analysis details matter. Primary and secondary outcome denominators differ, the record does not explain the differences, and analysis populations and missing-data procedures are not reported. The endpoint listings contain no reported analyses. Without this information, a reader cannot fully reconstruct how outcome eligibility, assay availability, or analysis choices affected the estimates.

Finally, the planning illustrations show how sample-size requirements depend on the effect chosen for planning. Smaller effects require more participants per arm under the stated assumptions. Because these illustrations use observed effects and do not reproduce the trial's original design calculation, they should inform general planning interpretation rather than be treated as a retrospective judgment of the trial's design.

18. Limitations

The registry record leaves several trial-specific uncertainties. The primary outcome is an assay-based immune response, but the record does not report the criteria defining a positive response or describe the assay procedures in sufficient detail to assess measurement reliability. It also does not explain how the peak time point was selected, despite describing a comparison at that time.

Endpoint denominators differ across the primary and secondary immune-response outcomes, and the record does not explain the differences. Missing-data handling, analysis populations, and treatment of participants who did not complete the planned regimen are not reported. These omissions make it difficult to judge the extent to which the displayed comparisons reflect all randomized participants or only participants with available measurements.

The study was open-label, and masking was listed as none. The record does not describe whether laboratory assessment was blinded to treatment assignment. The registry does not report a multiplicity strategy despite describing assessments across assays, antigens, and time points. These gaps limit interpretation of the inferential results and make the analysis difficult to reproduce.

The registry lists tumor recurrence and overall survival as secondary outcomes but does not post analyses for them. The posted immune-response results therefore cannot answer those clinical questions. The record also does not provide a full statistical analysis report, the original sample-size justification, or further detail on allocation procedures. These limitations are specific to what the registry record reports and do not establish that the omitted procedures were not conducted.

19. Related Tutorials

20. Related Statistical Calculators

21. Sources

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22. Record Summary

NCT02129075 is a completed phase II, randomized, open-label, multicenter, parallel-group study sponsored by the National Cancer Institute. It compared CDX-301, CDX-1401, and poly-ICLC with CDX-1401 and poly-ICLC in patients with stage IIB-IV melanoma. Planned enrollment was 60.

The primary outcome was the count of participants with an immune T-cell response to NY-ESO-1 at 12 weeks after final vaccination. The posted counts were 15 of 28 in Arm I and 10 of 26 in Arm II. The comparative interval spans no difference, and the unadjusted p-value is 0.266. Secondary outcome analyses for recurrence, survival, and other listed measures are not reported in the registry record.

The record lists serious adverse events in 0 participants in Arm I and 4 in Arm II, with 30 participants at risk in each arm. Key analysis details, including missing-data handling, analysis populations, and multiplicity procedures, are not reported in the registry record.

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