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Essential Hypertension Phase 2, Phase 3 Continuous Endpoint NCT03514641

An Integrated Assessment of the Safety and Effectiveness of Bexagliflozin for the Management of Essential Hypertension: Complete Statistical Analysis

The registry record describes an integrated assessment of bexagliflozin and placebo for essential hypertension. The primary result is the change in 24-hour mean systolic blood pressure from baseline to week 12, with additional blood-pressure outcomes and safety counts reported.

Trial start: 2017-10-18  ·  Enrollment: 673  ·  Sponsor: Theracos
Scope of this record

This page provides an independent statistical analysis and educational interpretation of publicly reported results. ClinicalTrials.gov provides the official trial registry record. Numerical trial results on this page are restricted to the results posted in the ClinicalTrials.gov record; calculations added by Clinical Biostats are labelled as such.

1. Trial at a Glance

This page covers the registry results for An Integrated Assessment of the Safety and Effectiveness of Bexagliflozin for the Management of Essential Hypertension (NCT03514641), a randomized phase 2, phase 3 study. The primary outcome is Change of the 24 Hour Mean Systolic Blood Pressure From Baseline (Day 1) to Week 12.

673
Enrollment
Phase 2, Phase 3
2
Arms
In the primary outcome
-2.71
Mean difference
Bexagliflozin Tablets, 20 mg
-4.46–-0.96
95% CI
Two-sided
FeatureRegistry value
ClinicalTrials.gov identifierNCT03514641
PhasePhase 2, Phase 3
ConditionEssential Hypertension
AllocationRandomized
Design modelParallel
MaskingQuadruple
Enrollment673
Arms in the primary outcome2
Lead sponsorTheracos
Results postedYes

2. Clinical Question

Population

Adults with essential hypertension were eligible for the integrated assessment. The record describes approximately 680 male or female adult subjects as the enrollment target and reports enrollment of 673. It does not report the primary analysis population's detailed eligibility criteria or baseline characteristics.

Intervention

Bexagliflozin tablets, 20 mg. The primary outcome record reports 334 participants in this group.

Comparator

Placebo tablets. The primary outcome record reports 339 participants in this group.

Primary question

What was the difference between bexagliflozin and placebo in the change in 24-hour mean systolic blood pressure from baseline (Day 1) to week 12? The posted primary comparison is a difference in least-squares mean change, measured in mm Hg.

The question concerns an average change in a continuous blood-pressure measure, rather than the proportion of participants who crossed a threshold. The registry describes bexagliflozin in relation to placebo and reports both groups' average changes, along with a sponsor-reported between-group estimate. These results address the recorded endpoint and timeframe. They do not, on their own, answer questions about outcomes beyond week 12, other populations, or effects on health outcomes not reported in the record.

The assessment comprises studies 603A and 603B, described as sequential and involving a common study population. The primary endpoint results are presented for the 603A comparison. Detailed primary results for 603B are not reported in the registry record. The record also does not report a fuller description of the primary analysis population, such as eligibility criteria beyond the stated condition and adult population.

3. Trial Design

The registry identifies this as a randomized, quadruple-masked, parallel study at Phase 2 and Phase 3. Its status is completed. The record gives a start date of 2017-10-18 and a primary completion date of 2018-11-30. It reports enrollment of 673; the brief summary describes an intended enrollment of approximately 680 male or female adults.

The integrated assessment consists of studies 603A and 603B, described as carried out sequentially in a common study population. Participants were to be informed about the design, and consent to participate in both studies was to be obtained using one consent form. The record lists four treatment sequences across three periods. In each sequence, the period assignments differ: some include placebo in Period 1, some in Period 3, and others list bexagliflozin across all periods. These assignments describe the recorded sequences, but detailed timing, washout arrangements, and the rationale for the sequence structure are not reported in the registry record.

Although the registry labels the model parallel, the listed period sequences should be read as the record describes them rather than used to infer unreported design details. The identities of the parties included in quadruple masking, the randomization procedure, allocation concealment, and the sequence-generation method are not reported in the registry record.

The primary outcome is the change in 24-hour mean systolic blood pressure from baseline (Day 1) to week 12. The primary results list 334 participants for bexagliflozin and 339 for placebo. The record does not report whether those counts represent all randomized participants, participants with evaluable outcome data, or a particular analysis population. It also does not report the original sample-size justification or the trial's detailed statistical analysis plan.

4. Participant Flow and Accounting

The registry reports how participants moved through each stage of the study. All counts below are exactly as posted; missing counts are not inferred from other stages.

Before assignment: In the first part of the study (603A), the subjects were randomized to receive bexagliflozin or placebo for 12 weeks.

603A: 0-12 Week Study Period

Stage603A: Bexagliflozin Tablets, 20 mg603A: Placebo Tablets603B: Bexagliflozin Tablets, 20 mg603B: Placebo Tablets
STARTED33433900
COMPLETED30731900
NOT COMPLETED272000

Reasons for not completing this period:

Reason603A: Bexagliflozin Tablets, 20 mg603A: Placebo Tablets603B: Bexagliflozin Tablets, 20 mg603B: Placebo Tablets
Protocol Violation3300
Adverse Event5200
Withdrawal by Subject7500
Lost to Follow-up10900
Physician Decision1000
Lack of Efficacy1000
24 hr ABPM not enough readings0100

603B: 24-36 Week Study Period

Stage603A: Bexagliflozin Tablets, 20 mg603A: Placebo Tablets603B: Bexagliflozin Tablets, 20 mg603B: Placebo Tablets
STARTED00281281
COMPLETED00267266
NOT COMPLETED001415

Reasons for not completing this period:

Reason603A: Bexagliflozin Tablets, 20 mg603A: Placebo Tablets603B: Bexagliflozin Tablets, 20 mg603B: Placebo Tablets
Protocol Violation0002
Adverse Event0031
Withdrawal by Subject0023
Lost to Follow-up0066
24 hr ABPM not enough readings0033

5. Baseline Characteristics

The table reproduces the baseline characteristics posted in the registry, which describe the participants analysed at baseline and help show whether the randomized groups were comparable.

Population: * To avoid being double-counting of the participants, the number of baseline participants has been entered as "0" for 603B. * Subjects in 603B study had completed 603A study and were qualified to be re-randomized in 603B study.

CharacteristicUnit603A: Bexagliflozin Tablets, 20 mg603 A: Placebo Tablets603B: Bexagliflozin Tablets, 20 mg603B: Placebo TabletsTotal
Participants analysed3343392812811235
Age, Continuous: 603A: 0-12 Week Study Periodyears59.4 (SD 11.32)58.3 (SD 12.06)——58.9 (SD 11.71)
Age, Continuous: 603B: 12-36 Week Study Periodyears——59.9 (SD 11.39)59.2 (SD 11.78)59.6 (SD 11.58)
Sex: Female, Male: 603A: 0-12 Week Study Period – FemaleParticipants12713900266
Sex: Female, Male: 603A: 0-12 Week Study Period – MaleParticipants20720000407
Sex: Female, Male: 603B: 12-36 Week Study Period – FemaleParticipants00110114224
Sex: Female, Male: 603B: 12-36 Week Study Period – MaleParticipants00171167338
Ethnicity (NIH/OMB): 603A: 0-12 Week Study Period – Hispanic or LatinoParticipants27270054
Ethnicity (NIH/OMB): 603A: 0-12 Week Study Period – Not Hispanic or LatinoParticipants30731200619
Ethnicity (NIH/OMB): 603A: 0-12 Week Study Period – Unknown or Not ReportedParticipants00000
Ethnicity (NIH/OMB): 603B: 12-36 Week Study Period – Hispanic or LatinoParticipants00271946
Ethnicity (NIH/OMB): 603B: 12-36 Week Study Period – Not Hispanic or LatinoParticipants00254262516
Ethnicity (NIH/OMB): 603B: 12-36 Week Study Period – Unknown or Not ReportedParticipants00000
Race (NIH/OMB): 603A: 0-12 Week Study Period – American Indian or Alaska NativeParticipants02002
Race (NIH/OMB): 603A: 0-12 Week Study Period – AsianParticipants740011
Race (NIH/OMB): 603A: 0-12 Week Study Period – Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific IslanderParticipants10001
Race (NIH/OMB): 603A: 0-12 Week Study Period – Black or African AmericanParticipants9410400198
Race (NIH/OMB): 603A: 0-12 Week Study Period – WhiteParticipants21922000439
Race (NIH/OMB): 603A: 0-12 Week Study Period – More than one raceParticipants43007
Race (NIH/OMB): 603A: 0-12 Week Study Period – Unknown or Not ReportedParticipants960015
Race (NIH/OMB): 603B: 12-36 Week Study Period – American Indian or Alaska NativeParticipants00112
Race (NIH/OMB): 603B: 12-36 Week Study Period – AsianParticipants00448
Race (NIH/OMB): 603B: 12-36 Week Study Period – Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific IslanderParticipants00000
Race (NIH/OMB): 603B: 12-36 Week Study Period – Black or African AmericanParticipants009270162
Race (NIH/OMB): 603B: 12-36 Week Study Period – WhiteParticipants00178195373
Race (NIH/OMB): 603B: 12-36 Week Study Period – More than one raceParticipants00246
Race (NIH/OMB): 603B: 12-36 Week Study Period – Unknown or Not ReportedParticipants004711
Body Mass Index: 603A: 0-12 Week Study Periodkg/m^232.29 (SD 6.522)32.90 (SD 6.527)——32.59 (SD 6.527)
Body Mass Index: 603B: 12-36 Week Study Periodkg/m^2——32.22 (SD 6.952)33.17 (SD 6.144)32.69 (SD 6.572)
Body Weight at Baseline: 603A: 0-12 Week Study Periodkg95.36 (SD 22.643)97.47 (SD 22.673)——96.42 (SD 22.666)
Body Weight at Baseline: 603B: 12-36 Week Study Periodkg——95.71 (SD 24.321)97.55 (SD 21.003)96.63 (SD 22.721)
History of Diabetes: 603A: 0-12 Week Study Period – YesParticipants8384——167
History of Diabetes: 603A: 0-12 Week Study Period – NoParticipants251255——506
History of Diabetes: 603B: 12-36 Week Study Period – YesParticipants——7866144
History of Diabetes: 603B: 12-36 Week Study Period – NoParticipants——203215418
Use of any antihypertension medication: 603A: 0-12 Week Study PeriodParticipants269276——545
Use of any antihypertension medication: 603B: 12-36 Week Study PeriodParticipants——233226459
Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate (eGFR) Mean: 603A: 0-12 Week Study PeriodmL/min/1.73 m^282.64 (SD 17.438)84.42 (SD 19.710)——83.53 (SD 18.625)
Estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate (eGFR) Mean: 603B: 12-36 Week Study PeriodmL/min/1.73 m^2——78.75 (SD 18.971)77.95 (SD 18.871)78.35 (SD 18.908)
Ambulatory Blood Pressure Monitoring (ABPM) at baseline: 603A: 0-12 Week Study Period; SBPmm Hg147.58 (SD 9.640)147.48 (SD 10.064)——147.53 (SD 9.850)
Ambulatory Blood Pressure Monitoring (ABPM) at baseline: 603A: 0-12 Week Study Period; DBPmm Hg85.04 (SD 9.240)84.97 (SD 10.216)——85.01 (SD 9.740)
Ambulatory Blood Pressure Monitoring (ABPM) at baseline: 603B: 12-36 Week Study Period; SBPmm Hg——136.30 (SD 13.844)135.62 (SD 13.510)135.96 (SD 13.67)
Ambulatory Blood Pressure Monitoring (ABPM) at baseline: 603B: 12-36 Week Study Period; DBPmm Hg——79.58 (SD 10.471)79.20 (SD 10.571)79.39 (SD 10.513)
Office seated SBP and DBP at baseline: 603A: 0-12 Week Study Period; SBPmm Hg156.44 (SD 10.513)155.84 (SD 10.335)——156.14 (SD 10.420)
Office seated SBP and DBP at baseline: 603A: 0-12 Week Study Period; DBPmm Hg91.29 (SD 10.269)91.48 (SD 10.619)——91.39 (SD 10.439)
Office seated SBP and DBP at baseline: 603B: 12-36 Week Study Period; SBPmm Hg——141.18 (SD 16.231)140.69 (SD 14.960)140.94 (SD 15.596)
Office seated SBP and DBP at baseline: 603B: 12-36 Week Study Period; DBPmm Hg——84.75 (SD 11.623)85.28 (SD 11.588)84.55 (SD 10.985)

6. Primary Endpoint

The registry lists the primary outcome as Change of the 24 Hour Mean Systolic Blood Pressure From Baseline (Day 1) to Week 12, measured over Baseline (Day 1) to week 12.

ElementRegistry entry
Result typeLeast Squares Mean
Measure of spreadStandard Error
Unitmm Hg
Endpoint classificationContinuous Endpoint

The primary endpoint is change in 24-hour mean systolic blood pressure from baseline (Day 1) to week 12, measured in mm Hg. “Change” refers to the difference between a participant's measurement at the later assessment and the baseline value; the group-level results are reported as least-squares means. Negative changes in the posted results indicate lower mean systolic blood pressure at week 12 than at baseline.

A 24-hour mean summarizes blood-pressure measurements across a full day, rather than relying on a single office reading. As a general statistical point, repeated measurements across a day can characterize the average level over that measurement period; the registry record does not provide the measurement schedule or device details. The outcome is continuous, so the main comparison estimates a difference in average change between groups. This retains information about the size and direction of change, rather than reducing the result to whether each participant did or did not meet a threshold.

The record describes the endpoint as comparing bexagliflozin with placebo. The primary result is not a comparison of the two within-group changes in isolation: the key estimate is the between-group difference in least-squares mean change. The outcome and its timeframe do not establish effects beyond week 12 or on outcomes not included in the registry record.

7. Results Posted in the Registry

Mean difference: Bexagliflozin Tablets, 20 mg

-2.71

95% CI: -4.46 to -0.96

Recalculated from the posted summary statistics

Primary outcome by arm, with 95% confidence intervals
Primary outcome by arm with 95% confidence intervals-10.6-9.4-8.1-6.9-5.7-4.4Bexagliflozin Tablets, 20 mg (n=334)Placebo Tablets (n=339)mm Hg (95% CI)
Treatment effect versus the control arm
Forest plot of mean difference vs control (95% CI)Bexagliflozin Tablets, 20 mg-4.82-3.78-2.75-1.71-0.680.36mean difference vs control (95% CI)

8. Secondary Efficacy Endpoints

The registry also posts results for secondary outcomes. For each outcome below, the endpoint type, the test applied to the posted summary statistics, the result and its interpretation are given in turn. Secondary endpoints are usually not adjusted for multiple testing, so they support rather than confirm the primary finding.

Secondary outcomeTypeEffect measureEstimate (95% CI)Planning size, 80% power
603A, Reduction of Mean Ambulatory Systolic Blood PressureBinary EndpointRisk difference+0.0 pts (-0.8 to 0.8)23,852,630 per arm
603A, Mean Ambulatory Systolic Blood Pressure of 135 mm Hg or LessBinary EndpointRisk difference+0.0 pts (-0.8 to 0.8)23,852,630 per arm
603A, Change in Seated Office Systolic Blood PressureContinuous EndpointMean difference-4.63 (-6.83 to -2.43)155 per arm

603A, Reduction of Mean Ambulatory Systolic Blood Pressure

Treatment effect versus the control arm
Forest plot of risk difference (percentage points) vs control (95% CI)Bexagliflozin Tablets, 20 mg-0.95-0.57-0.190.200.580.96risk difference (percentage points) vs control (95% CI)

603A, Mean Ambulatory Systolic Blood Pressure of 135 mm Hg or Less

Treatment effect versus the control arm
Forest plot of risk difference (percentage points) vs control (95% CI)Bexagliflozin Tablets, 20 mg-0.95-0.57-0.190.200.580.96risk difference (percentage points) vs control (95% CI)

603A, Change in Seated Office Systolic Blood Pressure

Treatment effect versus the control arm
Forest plot of mean difference vs control (95% CI)Bexagliflozin Tablets, 20 mg-7.37-5.79-4.21-2.62-1.040.55mean difference vs control (95% CI)

The secondary outcomes extend the primary question to other blood-pressure measures, including ambulatory and seated office readings and threshold-based outcomes. This offers related perspectives on blood-pressure change and target attainment, but these endpoints do not replace the primary continuous measure of change in 24-hour mean systolic pressure. The detailed secondary results reported in the registry record do not all point to equally strong statistical evidence. Some sponsor analyses report a difference, while another reported analysis does not provide evidence of a difference under its stated test. Detailed results for all 12 posted secondary outcomes are not reported in the registry record.

The secondary outcomes are related to the primary result in subject matter, but they address different measurements or definitions. A threshold outcome reduces a continuous measurement to whether a cutoff was met, so it may tell a different statistical story from comparing average changes. Ambulatory and seated office measures also differ in how blood pressure is assessed. Results across these outcomes should therefore be considered complementary rather than treated as interchangeable confirmations.

Multiplicity is an important qualification. When several outcomes are examined, the chance of at least one apparently notable result can increase if each is tested without adjustment. The registry record does not report whether a hierarchy, multiplicity adjustment, or other prespecified strategy governed these secondary tests. Consequently, secondary p-values should generally carry less weight than the primary result, especially when considered individually and without a documented testing plan. This is a general statistical caution, not a claim about which procedure was used.

The record lists 12 secondary outcomes and 14 analyses, but the complete set of outcome estimates and analysis details is not reported in the registry record. The available secondary findings can be described as additional, endpoint-specific results; they cannot establish a complete pattern across every planned or posted outcome.

Secondary outcomes registered for this trial, for reference (only those above were recalculated):

9. Statistical Interpretation

Clinical Biostats interpretation

In the primary results, the least-squares mean change was -8.86 mm Hg for bexagliflozin and -6.15 mm Hg for placebo. The posted unadjusted re-calculation of the difference, expressed as bexagliflozin minus placebo, is -2.71 mm Hg, with a confidence interval from -4.462 to -0.958. The negative estimate indicates a greater average reduction in the bexagliflozin group over the recorded timeframe. This is a description of the posted endpoint result, not a conclusion about clinical benefit.

The sponsor's reported analysis gives a least-squares mean difference of -2.72 mm Hg, with a 95% confidence interval from -4.47 to -0.96 and a reported p-value of 0.003. The sponsor's estimate and interval are close to the simple unadjusted re-calculation. The sponsor's own analysis takes precedence because it is the registry's reported analysis; the re-calculation is a separate, unadjusted check based on posted summary statistics.

The interval is compatible with a range of negative between-group differences, rather than identifying a single exact effect. It does not include zero, and the sponsor's reported analysis labels the result as superiority. The interval's width also matters: the observed estimate has uncertainty, so it should not be read as an exact or guaranteed difference for another study or population. The registry record does not state the covariates or model details behind the sponsor's covariance analysis, so the adjustment underlying that analysis cannot be independently characterized from this record.

Both groups had negative mean changes. Therefore, the primary finding is not that change occurred in one group and not the other; it is that the estimated average change differed between groups. A within-group decline alone would not establish a treatment contrast, because change can occur in both groups for reasons not isolated by that within-group comparison. The between-group estimate is the relevant result for the recorded question.

The secondary outcomes include additional ambulatory and seated office blood-pressure measures, including threshold-based outcomes. Those results provide related perspectives, but they are not interchangeable with the primary continuous endpoint. The detailed secondary outcomes reported in the record are mixed in the amount of evidence they provide, and their interpretation is limited by the number of outcomes and the absence of a reported multiplicity plan. The registry lists 12 secondary outcomes, but detailed results for all of them are not reported in the registry record.

These results describe the recorded outcome at week 12 in the listed study groups. They do not establish a long-term effect, establish effects on clinical events, or show what would occur in populations not described by the registry. No medical recommendation follows from the statistical comparison alone.

10. Statistical Methods Explained

The primary outcome is continuous: it measures change in blood pressure in mm Hg. The registry reports least-squares means for each group and a least-squares mean difference from the sponsor's analysis. Least-squares means are model-based group averages. As a general statistical explanation, they can account for terms included in the fitted model, but the registry record does not report the model's covariates or full specification. They should therefore be interpreted as the sponsor-reported estimates, not as raw arithmetic averages whose construction is fully documented in the record.

What does the between-group estimate represent?

The posted re-calculation uses the two reported group means to form an unadjusted mean difference. It is labelled as a re-calculation because it is a simple calculation from posted summary statistics, rather than the sponsor's full model-based analysis. Its estimate is -2.71 mm Hg. The sign convention is bexagliflozin minus placebo: a negative estimate means the group mean change was more negative for bexagliflozin. The registry's reported covariance analysis gives a closely aligned estimate of -2.72 mm Hg. Because the sponsor's analysis is the analysis reported by the registry, it takes precedence over the simple re-calculation.

What does a confidence interval add?

A confidence interval expresses uncertainty around an estimated effect. In general, it gives a range of values compatible with the data and the method used to construct the interval. It is not a guarantee that the true effect lies within that particular interval, nor does it describe the range of individual participants' responses. The sponsor reports a 95% confidence interval for the primary comparison, from -4.47 to -0.96 mm Hg. A separate unadjusted interval is calculated from the posted summary statistics. The two intervals are similar, but the sponsor's model and analysis remain the authoritative reported analysis.

How should p-values be read?

A p-value describes how unusual results at least as incompatible with a specified null hypothesis would be under the assumptions of a statistical model. It is not the probability that the null hypothesis is true, and it does not measure the clinical importance of an effect. The primary sponsor-reported p-value is 0.003, and the unadjusted re-calculation reports 0.002. These values relate to the primary between-group comparison; they do not adjust for the many outcomes in the integrated assessment. The full hypothesis-testing procedure and whether any multiplicity adjustment was prespecified are not reported in the registry record.

Why is the re-calculation not the same as the reported analysis?

The re-calculation is based on posted means, standard errors, and group sizes, and is unadjusted. The sponsor reports a covariance analysis and labels it as a superiority analysis. Model-based estimates can differ slightly from a calculation based only on summary statistics because they may use a different model, variance estimate, or analysis population. The details needed to identify the exact cause of any difference are not reported in the registry record. In this case, the reported estimates are close; that closeness does not make the two methods identical.

What does over-dispersion mean in general?

For count or binary outcomes, a statistical model can assume a particular degree of variability. Over-dispersion means the observed variability is greater than the model assumes. If ignored, uncertainty estimates can be too small and evidence can appear more precise than it is. This is a general concept, not a finding about this trial: the registry record does not report an over-dispersion assessment for the primary continuous endpoint.

The primary result uses a continuous endpoint and a mean-difference interpretation. The secondary outcomes include both continuous measures and threshold-based proportions, which require different statistical summaries. The registry's secondary analysis details are incomplete in the record, so it is not possible to establish that a particular statistical model or adjustment was used for every secondary outcome. The reported secondary results should be read according to their stated measure and with that reporting limitation in mind.

Finally, the registry identifies randomized allocation and quadruple masking, but the record does not explain the randomization method, the masked roles, handling of missing outcome data, or analysis-population definitions. Those details affect how confidently the analysis can be reproduced and how it should be interpreted. They should not be inferred from the labels alone.

11. Confidence Intervals and Precision

The primary sponsor-reported estimate is -2.72 mm Hg, with a 95% confidence interval from -4.47 to -0.96. The interval describes uncertainty in the estimated difference in mean change. Its endpoints are both negative, so the interval is consistent with a greater average reduction in the bexagliflozin group than in the placebo group for this endpoint and timeframe. It does not show the distribution of individual responses or guarantee an effect of any particular size in future participants.

The simple unadjusted re-calculation gives an estimate of -2.71 mm Hg and an interval from -4.462 to -0.958. This interval is also entirely negative and is close to the sponsor-reported interval. The difference between these estimates is small in the posted results, but the sponsor's own model-based analysis remains the primary reported analysis. The registry record does not provide enough model detail to assess why the estimates and interval endpoints differ slightly.

Precision depends on both the estimated effect and its uncertainty. A confidence interval that spans multiple plausible values reminds readers that the point estimate is not exact. Statistical precision is also distinct from clinical importance: the registry record does not define a threshold for a clinically important difference, and the interval alone cannot supply that judgment.

The reported standard errors for the group means are 0.642 for bexagliflozin and 0.622 for placebo. These quantify uncertainty around the respective least-squares means, not the spread of individual blood-pressure changes. The record does not report participant-level data or detailed missing-data information, so the precision calculations cannot be independently reproduced beyond the posted summaries.

12. Planning a Similar Trial: Sample Size

This is a planning illustration, not a re-evaluation of the original trial. It asks: if a new study wanted to detect a difference like the one observed, or a smaller one, how large would it need to be? It is deliberately not “observed power” of the finished trial, which is not a meaningful quantity.

Effect to detectParticipants per arm, 80% powerParticipants per arm, 90% power
100% of the observed effect288385
75% of the observed effect511684
50% of the observed effect1,1491,539
Sample size needed versus the size of the effect to detect
Sample size needed versus size of effect to detect2005001,0002,0005,00040%60%80%100%80% power90% powersize of effect to detect, as % of the effect observed (log vertical scale: participants per arm)
Method and assumptions. Two-sided α = 0.05, 1:1 allocation, two-sample comparison of means with the pooled standard deviation. Standard deviation was approximated from model-based standard errors, so treat it as rough. Calculated for the comparison: Bexagliflozin Tablets, 20 mg.

The planning estimates for this continuous primary comparison are participants per arm, not total events. The calculations are illustrations based on the observed effect, not the trial's original design assumptions. The listed assumptions are a two-sided significance level of 0.05, equal allocation between two arms, and a normal approximation. The effect to detect is set to the stated fraction of the observed effect. The original trial's sample-size assumptions and justification are not reported in the registry record.

The 80% power column describes the estimated participants per arm for a planning scenario with an 80% chance of detecting the specified effect under the calculation's assumptions. The 90% power column gives the corresponding planning estimate for a 90% chance. These are prospective planning concepts; they do not tell whether the completed trial had a particular probability of finding a result, and they are not observed power.

For the primary endpoint, planning for 100% of the observed effect gives estimates of 288 participants per arm for 80% power and 385 participants per arm for 90% power. Planning for a smaller effect increases the required number of participants: the illustration for 75% of the observed effect gives 511 participants per arm for 80% power and 684 for 90% power. The rows for 50% of the observed effect require still larger estimates. This pattern is expected in general: smaller effects are harder to distinguish from random variation, so more participants are needed to achieve the same planned power.

These figures are not a retrospective assessment of the trial's design quality, and they do not reconstruct the assumptions used when the trial was planned. They are illustrations tied to the observed estimate, which itself has uncertainty. The planning curve should be read as a visual expression of how required sample size changes with the effect assumed for a future study; it does not add evidence about the treatment comparison.

13. How the Sample Size Is Derived

Power is the probability that a study of a given size rejects the null hypothesis when a specific true effect exists. It depends on four things: the effect to detect, the variability of the outcome, the significance level (here a two-sided α of 0.05, so z1−α/2 = 1.960) and the desired power (z1−β = 0.842 for 80% and 1.282 for 90%).

Formula

n = 2 (z1−α/2 + z1−β)2 σ2 / Δ2

n is the number of participants in each arm, Δ is the difference in means to detect and σ is the common standard deviation.

Worked calculation for this trial

  1. Observed difference Δ = -2.710; pooled standard deviation σ = 11.592.
  2. n = 2 × (1.96 + 0.842)2 × 11.5922 / -2.7102 = 287.2, rounded up to 288 participants per arm for 80% power.

The smaller-effect rows in the table above repeat the same calculation with the effect multiplied by 0.75 and 0.5 (for ratios, applied to the logarithm of the ratio).

R code

alpha <- 0.05
z_a   <- qnorm(1 - alpha / 2)          # two-sided
delta <- -2.71                      # observed difference in means
sigma <- 11.5924102114136                     # pooled standard deviation
n_per_arm <- function(power, frac = 1) {
  ceiling(round(2 * (z_a + qnorm(power))^2 * sigma^2 / (delta * frac)^2, 6))
}
for (f in c(1, 0.75, 0.5))
  cat(sprintf("%3.0f%% of observed effect: n per arm = %s (80%% power), %s (90%% power)\n", 100 * f,
              format(n_per_arm(0.80, f), big.mark = ","), format(n_per_arm(0.90, f), big.mark = ",")))

# Check against R's built-in function (t-based, so very slightly larger)
cat("power.t.test:", round(power.t.test(delta = delta, sd = sigma, power = 0.80)$n, 1), "\n")

# Simulation: exact two-sample t-test using simulated means and variances
set.seed(3514641)
n    <- n_per_arm(0.80)
reps <- 20000
m_diff <- rnorm(reps, delta, sigma * sqrt(2 / n))             # difference in sample means
s2     <- sigma^2 * rchisq(reps, 2 * (n - 1)) / (2 * (n - 1))   # pooled sample variance
tstat  <- m_diff / sqrt(s2 * 2 / n)
cat(sprintf("Simulated power at n = %s per arm: %.3f (%d replicates)\n", format(n, big.mark = ","), mean(abs(tstat) > qt(0.975, 2 * (n - 1))), reps))

Output from running the code

100% of observed effect: n per arm = 288 (80% power), 385 (90% power)
 75% of observed effect: n per arm = 511 (80% power), 684 (90% power)
 50% of observed effect: n per arm = 1,149 (80% power), 1,539 (90% power)
power.t.test: 288.2 
Simulated power at n = 288 per arm: 0.798 (20000 replicates)

The simulation draws many sets of group means and variances at the planned sample size and counts how often the two-sample t-test rejects the null. It should land close to the target power; at very small required sample sizes it can fall below it, because the normal approximation is rough there.

14. Analyses Reported by the Sponsor

MethodEstimate95% CIP-value
CovarianceLS Means difference -2.72-4.47 to -0.960.003

The sponsor's primary analysis reports a least-squares mean difference of -2.72 mm Hg, a 95% confidence interval from -4.47 to -0.96, and a p-value of 0.003. It is described as a covariance analysis and labelled a superiority analysis. This is the registry's own analysis and takes precedence over the simple unadjusted re-calculation.

The re-calculation from the posted group summaries gives a difference of -2.71 mm Hg, an interval from -4.462 to -0.958, and an unadjusted p-value of 0.002. These results are close to the sponsor's estimate. The re-calculation does not reproduce the sponsor's covariance model, and it should not be substituted for the sponsor's analysis. The registry record does not report the model details, covariates, or analysis population needed to reproduce the sponsor's result independently.

The secondary endpoints also include sponsor-reported analyses. For the detailed secondary outcomes in the record, reported p-values and intervals should be understood as results of those sponsor analyses, whereas any simple summary-statistic calculation is a separate unadjusted check. Agreement between a simple calculation and the sponsor estimate would not confirm every modeling assumption; a difference would not, by itself, show that either result is erroneous. The correct interpretation depends on the analysis method and population, details that are not fully reported in the registry record.

15. Multiplicity, Missing Data and Analysis Populations

The registry lists a primary endpoint and multiple secondary outcomes. Testing many outcomes can increase the chance of at least one result appearing statistically notable when all are interpreted without accounting for the number of tests. In general, multiplicity can be addressed through a prespecified hierarchy, adjustment of significance thresholds, or another clearly stated strategy. The registry record does not report whether any such strategy was prespecified or used. The reported secondary p-values should therefore not be treated as though they necessarily represent a single, multiplicity-controlled family of tests.

The record does not report how missing primary outcome measurements were handled, whether any participants were excluded from analyses, or how analysis populations were defined. It does not specify whether the primary analysis followed an intention-to-treat approach or another population definition. These are consequential details: missingness and exclusions can affect both the estimated effect and its uncertainty. No assumptions about those procedures can be recovered from the group sizes alone.

The record identifies the study as randomized and quadruple-masked, but it does not describe the randomization sequence generation, allocation concealment, or which parties were masked. Nor does it report enough detail to determine whether the analysis model accounted for the sequence and periods described for studies 603A and 603B. These omissions limit independent evaluation of the analysis and its reproducibility.

The trial is described as an integrated assessment of two sequential studies in a common study population. The record does not explain how dependence between observations or participation across the two studies was handled in analyses, or whether the primary result is based on a particular study-level analysis set. The primary results are presented for the 603A comparison, but further analysis-population detail is not reported in the registry record.

These reporting gaps do not negate the posted estimates. They do mean that interpretation should distinguish the observed primary comparison from conclusions that would require additional information about missing data, multiplicity, and analysis populations.

16. Safety Results

The registry reports serious adverse events as affected participants divided by participants at risk.

ArmParticipants with serious adverse eventsParticipants at riskPercentage
603A: Bexagliflozin Tablets, 20 mg113343.3%
603A: Placebo Tablets103392.9%
603B: Bexagliflozin Tablets, 20 mg92813.2%
603B: Placebo Tablets62812.1%
Participants with at least one serious adverse event
Serious adverse events by arm603A: Bexagliflozin Tablets, …3.3%603A: Placebo Tablets2.9%603B: Bexagliflozin Tablets, …3.2%603B: Placebo Tablets2.1%% of participants with at least one serious adverse event

Deaths

ArmDeaths (participants affected of at risk)
603A: Bexagliflozin Tablets, 20 mg0 of 334
603A: Placebo Tablets0 of 339
603B: Bexagliflozin Tablets, 20 mg0 of 281
603B: Placebo Tablets0 of 281

Other (non-serious) adverse events

Participants with at least one non-serious event at or above the registry's 1% reporting threshold.

ArmParticipants affected of at risk
603A: Bexagliflozin Tablets, 20 mg94 of 334
603A: Placebo Tablets88 of 339
603B: Bexagliflozin Tablets, 20 mg32 of 281
603B: Placebo Tablets37 of 281

Most frequent serious adverse event terms

Event termOrgan system603A: Bexagliflozin Tablets, 20 mg603A: Placebo Tablets603B: Bexagliflozin Tablets, 20 mg603B: Placebo Tablets
OsteoarthritisMusculoskeletal and connective tissue disorders2 of 3340 of 3390 of 2811 of 281
Myocardial infarctionCardiac disorders0 of 3341 of 3390 of 2811 of 281
Atrial fibrillationCardiac disorders0 of 3340 of 3392 of 2810 of 281
Chronic obstructive pulmonary diseaseRespiratory, thoracic and mediastinal disorders0 of 3341 of 3390 of 2811 of 281
Pulmonary embolismRespiratory, thoracic and mediastinal disorders1 of 3340 of 3391 of 2810 of 281
Deep vein thrombosisVascular disorders1 of 3340 of 3391 of 2810 of 281
Angina unstableCardiac disorders1 of 3340 of 3390 of 2810 of 281
Atrial flutterCardiac disorders1 of 3340 of 3390 of 2810 of 281
Coronary artery diseaseCardiac disorders0 of 3341 of 3390 of 2810 of 281
Abdominal abscessInfections and infestations0 of 3341 of 3390 of 2810 of 281

Most frequent non-serious adverse event terms

Event termOrgan system603A: Bexagliflozin Tablets, 20 mg603A: Placebo Tablets603B: Bexagliflozin Tablets, 20 mg603B: Placebo Tablets
NasopharyngitisInfections and infestations12 of 33411 of 3394 of 2812 of 281
Urinary tract infectionInfections and infestations7 of 3347 of 3396 of 2816 of 281
Upper respiratory tract infectionInfections and infestations5 of 33410 of 3391 of 2813 of 281
PollakiuriaRenal and urinary disorders13 of 3344 of 3390 of 2810 of 281
NauseaGastrointestinal disorders7 of 3345 of 3391 of 2813 of 281
PolyuriaRenal and urinary disorders4 of 3349 of 3392 of 2811 of 281
HeadacheNervous system disorders4 of 3347 of 3391 of 2812 of 281
DiarrhoeaGastrointestinal disorders4 of 3345 of 3391 of 2812 of 281
VomitingGastrointestinal disorders3 of 3346 of 3391 of 2812 of 281
Back painMusculoskeletal and connective tissue disorders5 of 3345 of 3391 of 2811 of 281

Serious events with the highest arm-level rate: atrial fibrillation (0.7%), osteoarthritis (0.6%), myocardial infarction (0.4%), necrotising fasciitis (0.4%), crohn's disease (0.4%).

Do not overextend the safety comparison. Serious-adverse-event counts are safety observations, not efficacy outcomes, and should not be combined with the primary result into a single benefit-risk number.

The safety results are reported separately for studies 603A and 603B, with serious adverse events and other adverse events shown as counts among the corresponding at-risk group sizes. In 603A, the record lists 11 serious adverse events among 334 at risk in the bexagliflozin group and 10 among 339 at risk in the placebo group. In 603B, it lists 9 among 281 at risk in the bexagliflozin group and 6 among 281 at risk in the placebo group. The record reports zero deaths in each of the four listed groups.

These are descriptive counts. They should not be combined across studies because the record describes a common study population assessed sequentially, and it does not provide the information needed to establish whether participants or event periods overlap. Counts alone do not establish that an adverse event was caused by a study treatment. The registry record does not report event-level timing, exposure duration, statistical comparisons, or a detailed method for attributing events.

The record lists serious adverse-event terms with percentages, including atrial fibrillation, osteoarthritis, myocardial infarction, necrotising fasciitis, Crohn's disease, and intestinal obstruction. It does not provide enough context in the listed terms to infer comparative risks or causal relationships. The safety figures should be read as the registry's reported counts and terms, not as a complete characterization of safety.

17. What the Result Does, and Does Not, Mean

The primary result describes a difference in average change in 24-hour mean systolic blood pressure between the bexagliflozin and placebo groups from baseline (Day 1) to week 12. The sponsor-reported estimate is -2.72 mm Hg, with a 95% confidence interval from -4.47 to -0.96. Both group means changed in the negative direction, and the between-group estimate indicates a more negative average change in the bexagliflozin group over the recorded timeframe.

This finding is specific to the endpoint, groups, and timeframe reported. It does not establish what would happen after week 12, in populations not characterized by the record, or for outcomes not measured in this assessment. It also does not establish that a difference in this measure translates into a particular effect on cardiovascular events, quality of life, or other clinical outcomes; those outcomes are not reported in the primary result.

Statistical evidence and clinical importance are different questions. The sponsor's interval does not include zero, and its analysis reports a p-value of 0.003. Those statistics describe compatibility with a no-difference hypothesis under the analysis assumptions; they do not define whether the estimated difference is important to patients or clinicians. The registry record does not provide a threshold for clinical importance.

The primary result should also be interpreted alongside the incomplete reporting of analysis populations, missing data, model details, and multiplicity procedures. The sponsor analysis is the principal reported analysis, and the simple re-calculation is only an unadjusted check. Neither the estimate nor its p-value is a guarantee of an individual response, an effect in a different setting, or a causal explanation for every change observed.

No treatment recommendation follows from these registry statistics alone. They describe trial results and their uncertainty; decisions about care require evidence and context beyond this record.

18. Why This Trial Matters Statistically

This trial illustrates why the between-group contrast is more informative than looking only at whether each group changed from baseline. Both groups had negative average changes in the primary measure. The analysis that addresses the clinical question is the difference between those average changes, not either within-group change considered alone.

It also shows the value of reporting an effect estimate with an interval. The sponsor's estimate and 95% confidence interval communicate both the direction and the uncertainty of the primary comparison. A p-value alone would not show the range of effect sizes compatible with the analysis or distinguish statistical evidence from clinical importance.

The record includes a range of related outcomes, including continuous blood-pressure measures and threshold-based outcomes. Their measures are not interchangeable, and multiple secondary tests raise questions about how results should be interpreted together. The absence of a reported multiplicity strategy and complete secondary results makes that distinction especially relevant.

Finally, the integrated design description calls for careful attention to the study structure and analysis population. The registry describes sequential studies in a common population and lists period-specific treatment sequences, while some operational and statistical details are not reported. This makes it important to separate clearly documented details from assumptions about periods, participants, missingness, and modeling. Statistical interpretation is strongest when it follows the reported analysis while recognizing where the record leaves uncertainty.

19. Limitations

The registry record does not report the full eligibility criteria, baseline characteristics, or detailed primary analysis population. Although the primary results list group sizes, the record does not explain whether these represent randomized participants, participants with outcome data, or another analysis set. That limits assessment of who contributed to the reported comparison and how representative the analyzed groups were.

The studies are described as sequential and involving a common study population, and four treatment sequences across three periods are listed. The registry record does not provide detailed timing, washout information, adherence, period-specific outcome data, or a full account of how any sequence and period effects were incorporated into the primary analysis. The model is labelled parallel, but the additional structure warrants caution against inferring unreported design features.

The sponsor's covariance analysis is reported, but the model specification and covariates are not. The record also does not report missing-data handling, imputation procedures, sensitivity analyses, or the treatment of protocol deviations. It does not state whether multiplicity was addressed across the primary and secondary outcomes.

Detailed results for all listed secondary outcomes are not reported in the registry record, and the reported safety figures lack event-level timing and a complete account of exposure or attribution. The primary endpoint covers change through week 12; longer-term results are not reported in the record. These limitations concern what can be evaluated from the registry information and should not be filled in by assumption.

20. Related Tutorials

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22. Sources

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23. Record Summary

The registry record describes a completed randomized, quadruple-masked assessment of bexagliflozin tablets, 20 mg, versus placebo for essential hypertension. It identifies Phase 2 and Phase 3 and enrollment of 673. The integrated assessment comprises sequential studies 603A and 603B in a common study population.

The primary outcome is change in 24-hour mean systolic blood pressure from baseline (Day 1) to week 12. The sponsor reports a least-squares mean difference of -2.72 mm Hg, with a 95% confidence interval from -4.47 to -0.96 and a p-value of 0.003. The simple unadjusted re-calculation is similar, but the sponsor's analysis takes precedence.

The record includes additional blood-pressure outcomes and serious adverse-event counts. Complete secondary analyses, multiplicity methods, missing-data procedures, and detailed analysis-population definitions are not reported in the registry record.

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