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Muscle Spasticity Phase 4 Binary Endpoint NCT00549783

BOTOX® Economic Spasticity Trial (BEST): Complete Statistical Analysis

The BOTOX® Economic Spasticity Trial compared botulinum toxin type A 900kD with placebo for physician-assessed achievement of a functional goal at week 24. The registry record also lists secondary outcomes, participant counts, and safety results.

Trial start: 2007-10  ·  Enrollment: 274  ·  Sponsor: Allergan
Scope of this record

This page provides an independent statistical analysis and educational interpretation of publicly reported results. ClinicalTrials.gov provides the official trial registry record. Numerical trial results on this page are restricted to the results posted in the ClinicalTrials.gov record; calculations added by Clinical Biostats are labelled as such.

1. Trial at a Glance

This page covers the registry results for BOTOX® Economic Spasticity Trial (BEST) (NCT00549783), a randomized phase 4 study. The primary outcome is Physician Assessment of Success, as Determined by Percentage of Patients Who Achieve Their Principal Active Functional Goal at Week 24.

274
Enrollment
Phase 4
2
Arms
In the primary outcome
+7.4 pts
Risk difference
Botulinum Toxin Type A 900kD
-4.0 to 18.9 pts
95% CI
Two-sided
FeatureRegistry value
ClinicalTrials.gov identifierNCT00549783
PhasePhase 4
ConditionMuscle Spasticity
AllocationRandomized
Design modelParallel
MaskingDouble
Enrollment274
Arms in the primary outcome2
Lead sponsorAllergan
Results postedYes

2. Clinical Question

Population

Patients who had experienced a stroke and had spasticity. The primary endpoint population is described as all randomized patients who started the study and received a baseline injection.

Intervention

Botulinum toxin type A 900kD, given as an intramuscular injection at baseline, with an optional second injection after a minimum of 12 weeks to a maximum of 24 weeks following baseline.

Comparator

Placebo, also given as an intramuscular injection at baseline, with an optional second injection on the same stated schedule.

Primary question

At week 24, what percentage of patients in each group achieved their principal active functional goal, as assessed by a physician using the goal attainment scale?

The study addressed whether adding botulinum toxin type A to standard care was associated with a different rate of physician-assessed functional goal attainment than placebo. The registry summary describes spasticity as stiffness or frequent cramps, sometimes accompanied by pain and abnormal movements, that can interfere with everyday tasks. The endpoint focuses on an individual patient’s stated functional goal rather than a single common task applied to everyone.

The registry record describes a randomized, double-blind, parallel-group study and reports 274 participants enrolled. The primary assessment was at week 24, or 10 weeks after a second injection where one was given. The treatment schedule allowed a second injection, but the registry record does not report how many participants received one or the reasons for receiving or not receiving it. The posted primary results describe the proportion meeting the endpoint in each group; they do not by themselves establish why any difference arose or how the result relates to every aspect of function or quality of life.

3. Trial Design

The registry record identifies this as a phase 4, randomized, double-blind, parallel-group trial sponsored by Allergan. It lists a total enrollment of 274 and a completed status. The recorded start is 2007-10 and primary completion is 2010-01. The study summary describes recruitment at about 33 locations in Europe and Canada and participation lasting about 1 year.

Participants were assigned to botulinum toxin type A 900kD or placebo. Both groups were scheduled to receive an intramuscular injection at the baseline visit, with an optional second injection of the randomized treatment after a minimum of 12 weeks to a maximum of 24 weeks after baseline. Although the record calls the trial double-blind, it does not specify in the posted record which groups of people were blinded or how blinding was maintained. Details of the randomization sequence and allocation concealment are not reported in the registry record.

The primary outcome population is described as intent-to-treat, consisting of all patients who were randomized, started the study, and received a baseline injection. The arm-level outcome counts reported for the primary endpoint are 139 for botulinum toxin type A 900kD and 134 for placebo. The registry record does not explain the relationship between the total enrollment figure and those endpoint denominators, or report a participant flow account that would show exclusions, withdrawals, or missing endpoint assessments.

The primary endpoint was physician-assessed achievement of the principal active functional goal at week 24. Secondary outcomes listed in the record include physician and patient assessments of functional goal achievement at other time points and activities of daily living quality-of-life scores. Some secondary results are posted, while results for the remaining listed secondary outcomes are not reported in the registry record. The trial’s original sample-size justification, detailed statistical analysis plan, and any planned interim analyses are not reported in the registry record.

4. Participant Flow and Accounting

The registry reports how participants moved through each stage of the study. All counts below are exactly as posted; missing counts are not inferred from other stages.

Overall Study

StageBotulinum Toxin Type A 900kDPlacebo
STARTED139135
COMPLETED131122
NOT COMPLETED813

Analysis population for the primary outcome, as defined in the registry: Intent-to-treat, which consists of all patients who were randomized (started study) and received a baseline injection.

5. Baseline Characteristics

The table reproduces the baseline characteristics posted in the registry, which describe the participants analysed at baseline and help show whether the randomized groups were comparable.

CharacteristicUnitBotulinum Toxin Type A 900kDPlaceboTotal
Participants analysed139135274
Age Continuousyears64.11 (22.6 to 81.2)61.86 (26.8 to 82.4)62.60 (22.6 to 82.4)
Sex: Female, Male: FemaleParticipants5459113
Sex: Female, Male: MaleParticipants8576161

6. Primary Endpoint

The registry lists the primary outcome as Physician Assessment of Success, as Determined by Percentage of Patients Who Achieve Their Principal Active Functional Goal at Week 24, measured over Week 24.

ElementRegistry entry
Result typeNumber
Measure of spreadnot applicable
UnitPercentage of Patients
Endpoint classificationBinary Endpoint

The primary endpoint is the percentage of patients who achieved their principal active functional goal at week 24, as assessed by a physician. The registry description defines achievement as a goal attainment scale score from 0 to +2 inclusive. The scale has six points: -3 means function is worse than at the start, 0 means the expected goal was attained, and +2 means function is much better than expected. The endpoint is also described as being assessed at week 24 or 10 weeks after a second injection.

This outcome represents whether an individualized functional goal was judged to have been reached, rather than a change in a single standardized task for every participant. That can make the result relevant to patients’ varied functional priorities, while also making the outcome dependent on the goal selected and on the assessment process. The registry record does not provide further details about how goals were selected, how assessments were standardized, or whether the assessment was independently reviewed.

A percentage is useful for describing the share of participants meeting a defined binary criterion: each participant is counted as having achieved the endpoint or not having achieved it. The measure does not show the size of improvement among participants who did achieve their goal, nor does it summarize every dimension of spasticity or daily function. The posted result should therefore be read as a comparison of the proportion meeting this specific physician-assessed threshold at the stated time point.

7. Results Posted in the Registry

Risk difference: Botulinum Toxin Type A 900kD

+7.4

95% CI: -4.0 to 18.9 percentage points

Recalculated from the posted summary statistics

Primary outcome by arm, with 95% confidence intervals
Primary outcome by arm with 95% confidence intervals23.829.434.940.546.151.6Botulinum Toxin Type A 900kD (n=139)Placebo (n=134)% of participants (95% CI)
Treatment effect versus the control arm
Forest plot of risk difference (percentage points) vs control (95% CI)Botulinum Toxin Type A 900kD-5.84-0.534.77101521risk difference (percentage points) vs control (95% CI)

8. Secondary Efficacy Endpoints

The registry also posts results for secondary outcomes. For each outcome below, the endpoint type, the test applied to the posted summary statistics, the result and its interpretation are given in turn. Secondary endpoints are usually not adjusted for multiple testing, so they support rather than confirm the primary finding.

Secondary outcomeTypeEffect measureEstimate (95% CI)Planning size, 80% power
Physician Assessment of Success, as Determined by Percentage of Patients Who Achieve Their Principal Functional Goal at Week 12Binary EndpointRisk difference+4.0 pts (-7.0 to 15.0)2,113 per arm
Physician Assessment of Success, as Determined by Percentage of Patients Who Achieve Their Principal Functional Goal at Week 52Binary EndpointRisk difference-6.9 pts (-18.7 to 4.9)820 per arm
Patient Assessment of Success, as Determined by Percentage of Patients Who Achieve Their Principal Functional Goal at Week 12Binary EndpointRisk difference+5.5 pts (-5.4 to 16.4)1,104 per arm

Physician Assessment of Success, as Determined by Percentage of Patients Who Achieve Their Principal Functional Goal at Week 12

Treatment effect versus the control arm
Forest plot of risk difference (percentage points) vs control (95% CI)Botulinum Toxin Type A 900kD-8.74-3.651.446.531217risk difference (percentage points) vs control (95% CI)

Physician Assessment of Success, as Determined by Percentage of Patients Who Achieve Their Principal Functional Goal at Week 52

Treatment effect versus the control arm
Forest plot of risk difference (percentage points) vs control (95% CI)Botulinum Toxin Type A 900kD-21-15-9.66-4.171.326.81risk difference (percentage points) vs control (95% CI)

Patient Assessment of Success, as Determined by Percentage of Patients Who Achieve Their Principal Functional Goal at Week 12

Treatment effect versus the control arm
Forest plot of risk difference (percentage points) vs control (95% CI)Botulinum Toxin Type A 900kD-7.15-2.092.968.011318risk difference (percentage points) vs control (95% CI)

The registry record lists secondary assessments of physician- and patient-rated goal achievement at multiple follow-up times, along with activities of daily living quality-of-life scores. Results are posted for a limited subset of these outcomes: physician assessments at week 12 and week 52, and a patient assessment at week 12. The other listed secondary outcome results, including the week-24 and week-52 patient assessments and the quality-of-life scores, are not reported in the registry record.

Across the posted secondary goal assessments, the observed direction is not uniform across assessment time and assessor. The physician and patient assessments at week 12 have higher reported percentages in the botulinum toxin group than in the placebo group, while the physician assessment at week 52 has a higher reported percentage in the placebo group. This mixed pattern gives context to the week-24 primary comparison, but it does not replace it: the primary endpoint is a distinct physician assessment at a specified time point and uses the active functional goal definition.

Secondary outcomes are often used to explore other dimensions of an intervention or to assess whether a pattern is consistent over time. They generally carry less confirmatory weight when many outcomes and time points are considered, particularly when the registry record does not explain how multiplicity was handled. Looking at several results increases the chance that some differences will appear notable by chance alone. The record does not report a multiplicity adjustment or a complete analysis plan, so the secondary results are best treated as exploratory descriptions rather than independent confirmation of the primary finding.

The absence of results for some listed outcomes also limits an overall account of function and quality of life. It is not possible from the registry record to determine whether those results were collected but not posted, were not analyzed, or were unavailable for another reason. No explanation is reported in the registry record.

Secondary outcomes registered for this trial, for reference (only those above were recalculated):

9. Statistical Interpretation

Clinical Biostats interpretation

At week 24, the posted arm results report physician-assessed goal achievement for 40.9% of participants in the botulinum toxin type A 900kD group and 33.3% in the placebo group. The unadjusted recalculated risk difference is 0.074, with a confidence interval from -0.040 to 0.189 and an unadjusted p-value of 0.205. These statistics describe the observed difference and its uncertainty; they are not a conclusion that one treatment works or does not work.

The confidence interval includes zero and extends to values on either side of zero. Thus, the posted data are compatible with a range of possible differences, including no difference and differences in either direction. The interval is also consistent with a positive difference larger than the point estimate. The p-value is a measure of how unusual data at least this discrepant from a no-difference model would be under the assumptions of the unadjusted comparison. It is not the probability that the no-difference model is true, nor does it quantify the probability that a treatment benefit exists.

The registry record does not list sponsor-reported analyses for this endpoint. The comparison statistics are unadjusted recalculations from the posted summary counts, and there is no discrepancy flag. They should be understood as simple comparisons rather than as evidence that the trial’s full prespecified analysis has been reproduced. The registry record does not report whether the original analysis adjusted for other variables or followed a different analysis plan.

The result also depends on the endpoint definition and its measurement. Participants had individualized functional goals, and success was defined using the specified portion of the goal attainment scale. The result does not indicate whether a participant’s goal was easy or difficult to attain, how much function changed for those not meeting the threshold, or whether the outcome persisted beyond the assessed time point. The primary assessment is one measure among several functional and quality-of-life outcomes listed in the record.

Interpretation should account for the study’s reported population and the missing methodological details. The registry defines the primary population as randomized patients who received a baseline injection, but it does not report the extent or handling of missing week-24 assessments. It also does not report the original sample-size rationale or multiplicity plan. These omissions limit assessment of how the posted comparison relates to the trial’s planned inferential framework. The arm percentages and unadjusted comparison are informative descriptions of the available posted results, but they do not resolve those uncertainties.

10. Statistical Methods Explained

The primary outcome is binary at the participant level: a patient either met the defined goal-attainment threshold or did not. A percentage expresses the number meeting that threshold relative to the number in the reported group. For this endpoint, the registry reports 40.9% in the botulinum toxin type A 900kD group and 33.3% in the placebo group. The denominators reported for the groups are 139 and 134, respectively.

What does a risk difference describe?

A risk difference compares the proportion experiencing an outcome in one group with the proportion in another group, on the same proportion scale. The posted unadjusted recalculated risk difference is 0.074 for botulinum toxin type A 900kD relative to placebo. A positive estimate indicates that the observed proportion was higher in the botulinum toxin group in this comparison; it does not, on its own, establish that the difference is reliable or attributable to the assigned treatment. A negative estimate would indicate the reverse direction. The confidence interval describes uncertainty around the estimated difference.

How should a confidence interval be read?

A confidence interval is a range of values compatible with the observed data under the statistical method’s assumptions. For the primary risk difference, the interval runs from -0.040 to 0.189. Because it contains zero, the data do not rule out no difference under this unadjusted comparison. The interval also spans values in both directions, so it does not establish a single direction or a precise magnitude. The interval is not a range that contains a fixed proportion of individual patient outcomes, and it is not a probability statement about the true effect after the data have been observed.

What does the p-value add?

The unadjusted p-value is 0.205. In general, a p-value measures how compatible the observed data are with a specified null model, assuming the model and analysis conditions hold. Smaller values indicate that the data would be less expected under that model. A p-value is not the probability that the null hypothesis is correct, and it does not measure the clinical importance of an effect. The registry record does not report a sponsor analysis for the endpoint, so the posted p-value should be treated as an unadjusted recalculation from summary results rather than as a reported sponsor result.

Why distinguish unadjusted from adjusted analyses?

An unadjusted comparison looks at the group results without accounting for other variables or a more complex model. It can be a useful transparent description of the posted counts. A prespecified analysis might use adjustment or other methods, but the registry record does not report whether such methods were planned or used. There are no reported analyses listed for the primary outcome in the record, and the original detailed statistical plan is not reported in the registry record. The unadjusted comparison therefore should not be presented as a substitute for an undocumented sponsor analysis.

Why can over-dispersion matter?

Over-dispersion is a general concern for outcomes modeled as counts or rates when variability exceeds what a chosen statistical model expects. It can make standard errors too small if ignored, which can make confidence intervals too narrow and p-values too small. The primary endpoint is reported as a percentage of participants meeting a binary criterion, not as a count or event rate over person-time. The registry record does not report use of a model that requires an over-dispersion adjustment, so there is no basis to claim that over-dispersion affected this endpoint’s posted comparison.

The population description matters when interpreting any estimate. The registry defines the primary outcome population as all randomized patients who started the study and received a baseline injection. That definition is narrower than simply referring to everyone enrolled, and the record does not describe missing endpoint data or how any such data were handled. The reported arm denominators and percentages are the available basis for the unadjusted comparison; the record does not give enough detail to reconstruct any additional analyses.

11. Confidence Intervals and Precision

Precision concerns how narrowly the data locate the estimated group difference. The primary unadjusted recalculated risk difference is 0.074, and its confidence interval extends from -0.040 to 0.189. The interval is wide enough to include zero as well as values on both sides of zero. This means that the observed point estimate should not be read as a precise measure of the underlying difference.

The interval conveys uncertainty under the assumptions of the calculation. It does not account for uncertainties that cannot be evaluated from the posted summary results, such as the effects of missing assessments, departures from the planned analysis, or choices in defining and assessing individualized goals. Those issues are particularly difficult to evaluate because the registry record does not report a detailed analysis plan or missing-data procedures.

The unadjusted p-value of 0.205 is another summary of the data’s compatibility with a no-difference model, but it is not a measure of precision and does not replace the interval. The range of the confidence interval is more informative about the variety of effect values compatible with the comparison. Because the interval includes both no difference and nonzero values, the posted data leave substantial uncertainty about the magnitude and direction of the group difference.

Precision also depends on the outcome and the number of participants with usable assessments. The record reports group denominators for the primary result, but does not provide a participant flow or report how many week-24 outcomes were missing. As a result, the impact of missingness on the estimate cannot be assessed from the registry record.

12. Planning a Similar Trial: Sample Size

This is a planning illustration, not a re-evaluation of the original trial. It asks: if a new study wanted to detect a difference like the one observed, or a smaller one, how large would it need to be? It is deliberately not “observed power” of the finished trial, which is not a meaningful quantity.

Effect to detectParticipants per arm, 80% powerParticipants per arm, 90% power
100% of the observed effect665890
75% of the observed effect1,1711,567
50% of the observed effect2,6053,487
Sample size needed versus the size of the effect to detect
Sample size needed versus size of effect to detect5001,0002,0005,00010,00040%60%80%100%80% power90% powersize of effect to detect, as % of the effect observed (log vertical scale: participants per arm)
Treat these figures cautiously. The observed difference is imprecise: its confidence interval includes no difference at all. A sample size built on a noisy estimate can be far too small or too large, so the smaller-effect rows are the more cautious guide.
Method and assumptions. Two-sided α = 0.05, 1:1 allocation, pooled-variance normal approximation for two proportions. Counts were reconstructed from the posted percentages and arm sizes, so small rounding differences are possible. Calculated for the comparison: Botulinum Toxin Type A 900kD.

The planning estimates are illustrations based on the observed effect, not the trial’s original design calculation. For these binary outcomes, the figures are participants per arm, not total events. The planning assumptions are a two-sided significance level of 0.05, equal allocation between the two arms, and a normal approximation. Each planning scenario targets the stated fraction of the observed effect.

For the primary endpoint, planning for 100% of the observed effect gives 665 participants per arm for 80% power and 890 participants per arm for 90% power. Planning for 75% of the observed effect gives 1,171 participants per arm for 80% power and 1,567 participants per arm for 90% power. Planning for 50% of the observed effect gives 2,605 participants per arm for 80% power and 3,487 participants per arm for 90% power. These are scenario-based planning figures, not descriptions of the participants enrolled in this trial.

In general, 80% power means that a study designed under the stated assumptions would have an 80% chance of detecting the target effect if that effect were the true one. The 90% power column describes the corresponding design with a higher chance of detecting that target effect, under the same assumptions. Smaller target effects require more participants because they are harder to distinguish from random variation. A curve representing such planning scenarios should be read as illustrating how the required sample size changes with the effect being targeted, not as a result observed in the trial.

These figures are not observed power. They do not show the probability that the completed trial detected an effect, and they do not revise the trial’s original sample-size justification. That original justification and its assumptions are not reported in the registry record.

13. How the Sample Size Is Derived

Power is the probability that a study of a given size rejects the null hypothesis when a specific true effect exists. It depends on four things: the effect to detect, the variability of the outcome, the significance level (here a two-sided α of 0.05, so z1−α/2 = 1.960) and the desired power (z1−β = 0.842 for 80% and 1.282 for 90%).

Formula

n = [ z1−α/2 √(2p̄(1−p̄)) + z1−β √(p0(1−p0) + p1(1−p1)) ]2 / (p1 − p0)2

n is the number of participants in each arm, p0 and p1 are the control and treatment proportions, and p̄ is their average.

Worked calculation for this trial

  1. Control proportion p0 = 0.336; treatment proportion p1 = 0.410; average p̄ = 0.373.
  2. First term: z1−α/2 × √[2p̄(1−p̄)] = 1.96 × 0.6839 = 1.3404.
  3. Second term: z1−β × √[p0(1−p0) + p1(1−p1)] = 0.842 × 0.6819 = 0.5739.
  4. n = (1.3404 + 0.5739)2 / (0.0743)2 = 664.7, rounded up to 665 participants per arm for 80% power.

The smaller-effect rows in the table above repeat the same calculation with the effect multiplied by 0.75 and 0.5 (for ratios, applied to the logarithm of the ratio).

R code

alpha <- 0.05
z_a   <- qnorm(1 - alpha / 2)          # two-sided
p0 <- 0.335820895522388                          # control proportion
p1 <- 0.410071942446043                          # treatment proportion
n_per_arm <- function(power, frac = 1) {
  q1 <- p0 + (p1 - p0) * frac               # smaller effect = fraction of the observed difference
  pbar <- (p0 + q1) / 2
  z_b <- qnorm(power)
  ceiling(round((z_a * sqrt(2 * pbar * (1 - pbar)) + z_b * sqrt(p0 * (1 - p0) + q1 * (1 - q1)))^2 / (q1 - p0)^2, 6))
}
for (f in c(1, 0.75, 0.5))
  cat(sprintf("%3.0f%% of observed effect: n per arm = %s (80%% power), %s (90%% power)\n", 100 * f,
              format(n_per_arm(0.80, f), big.mark = ","), format(n_per_arm(0.90, f), big.mark = ",")))

# Check against R's built-in function (unrounded n per arm)
cat("power.prop.test:", round(power.prop.test(p1 = p0, p2 = p1, power = 0.80)$n, 1), "\n")

# Simulation: how often does the z-test reject at the 80%-power sample size?
set.seed(549783)
n    <- n_per_arm(0.80)
reps <- 20000
x0 <- rbinom(reps, n, p0); x1 <- rbinom(reps, n, p1)
ph <- (x0 + x1) / (2 * n)
z  <- ((x1 - x0) / n) / sqrt(ph * (1 - ph) * 2 / n)
cat(sprintf("Simulated power at n = %s per arm: %.3f (%d replicates)\n", format(n, big.mark = ","), mean(abs(z) > z_a, na.rm = TRUE), reps))

Output from running the code

100% of observed effect: n per arm = 665 (80% power), 890 (90% power)
 75% of observed effect: n per arm = 1,171 (80% power), 1,567 (90% power)
 50% of observed effect: n per arm = 2,605 (80% power), 3,487 (90% power)
power.prop.test: 664.7 
Simulated power at n = 665 per arm: 0.802 (20000 replicates)

The simulation draws many pairs of event counts at the planned sample size and counts how often the two-proportion z-test rejects the null. It should land close to the target power; at very small required sample sizes it can fall below it, because the normal approximation is rough there.

14. Multiplicity, Missing Data and Analysis Populations

The registry record lists multiple secondary endpoints across physician and patient assessments, different follow-up times, and activities of daily living quality-of-life scores. Considering many outcomes creates a multiplicity issue: even if there is no underlying group difference for any outcome, a collection of statistical tests can produce an apparently unusual result by chance. A prespecified approach to multiplicity can help define which comparisons are confirmatory and how uncertainty should be interpreted across the outcome family.

The registry record does not report whether multiplicity was addressed, what testing hierarchy was planned, or whether any secondary results were intended to be confirmatory. It also does not report a full statistical analysis plan. This matters when interpreting the secondary outcomes because their p-values and estimates cannot be placed within a documented overall testing strategy. The primary comparison is presented as an unadjusted recalculation, and the record lists no reported analyses for the primary outcome.

Missing-data handling is also not reported in the registry record. The primary population is defined as randomized patients who started the study and received a baseline injection, but there is no account of missing week-24 assessments, withdrawals, or the methods used for any incomplete outcomes. It is therefore not possible to assess whether the observed percentages are affected by missingness or to establish how participants without an observed endpoint were treated in the underlying analysis.

The arm counts for the posted primary result are 139 and 134, while total enrollment is reported as 274. The registry record does not include a participant flow that explains the relationship between these figures. It also does not describe any per-protocol or other analysis populations, so it is not possible to compare the stated intent-to-treat population with additional populations.

Interim analyses and any associated stopping rules are not reported in the registry record. Their absence from the record should not be taken as evidence that they were or were not conducted. The same applies to the original sample-size assumptions and other prespecified analysis decisions: without those details, the posted results cannot be fully compared with a documented analysis plan.

15. Safety Results

The registry reports serious adverse events as affected participants divided by participants at risk.

ArmParticipants with serious adverse eventsParticipants at riskPercentage
Botulinum Toxin Type A 900kD4713933.8%
Placebo4513433.6%
Participants with at least one serious adverse event
Serious adverse events by armBotulinum Toxin Type A 900kD33.8%Placebo33.6%% of participants with at least one serious adverse event

Other (non-serious) adverse events

Participants with at least one non-serious event at or above the registry's 5% reporting threshold.

ArmParticipants affected of at risk
Botulinum Toxin Type A 900kD60 of 139
Placebo45 of 134

Most frequent serious adverse event terms

Event termOrgan systemBotulinum Toxin Type A 900kDPlacebo
PneumoniaInfections and infestations2 of 1394 of 134
EpilepsyNervous system disorders2 of 1394 of 134
ConvulsionNervous system disorders3 of 1391 of 134
Cardiac FailureCardiac disorders1 of 1392 of 134
Urinary Tract InfectionInfections and infestations2 of 1391 of 134
FallInjury, poisoning and procedural complications3 of 1390 of 134
Hip FractureInjury, poisoning and procedural complications2 of 1391 of 134
Cerebral InfarctionNervous system disorders1 of 1392 of 134
DizzinessNervous system disorders1 of 1392 of 134
Angina PectorisCardiac disorders0 of 1392 of 134

Most frequent non-serious adverse event terms

Event termOrgan systemBotulinum Toxin Type A 900kDPlacebo
FallInjury, poisoning and procedural complications18 of 13915 of 134
NasopharyngitisInfections and infestations13 of 13911 of 134
Urinary Tract InfectionInfections and infestations12 of 1397 of 134
Upper Respiratory Tract InfectionInfections and infestations3 of 1398 of 134
Pain in ExtremityMusculoskeletal and connective tissue disorders7 of 1393 of 134
Muscular WeaknessMusculoskeletal and connective tissue disorders7 of 1391 of 134

Serious events with the highest arm-level rate: pneumonia (3.0%), epilepsy (3.0%), fall (2.2%), convulsion (2.2%), angina pectoris (1.5%).

Do not overextend the safety comparison. Serious-adverse-event counts are safety observations, not efficacy outcomes, and should not be combined with the primary result into a single benefit-risk number.

The registry record reports serious adverse event counts for 47 of 139 participants in the botulinum toxin type A 900kD group and 45 of 134 in the placebo group. Other adverse event counts are 60 of 139 and 45 of 134, respectively. These are group-level counts as recorded; they do not, by themselves, describe event severity beyond the serious-event classification or establish that an event was caused by the assigned treatment.

The serious adverse event terms listed most often include Pneumonia and Epilepsy, each reported as 3.0%, and Fall and Convulsion, each reported as 2.2%. Angina Pectoris and Cardiac Failure are each reported as 1.5%. These percentages are registry entries for the listed terms. The record does not provide additional context on overlap between terms, timing, recurrence, or attribution.

Death counts are not reported in the registry record. Safety figures should be read as descriptive summaries from the posted record, not as a complete assessment of comparative safety. The registry record does not report a detailed adverse-event analysis plan or further information about how events were assessed.

16. What the Result Does, and Does Not, Mean

The posted primary data describe physician-assessed functional goal attainment at week 24 in the two randomized groups. The reported percentages were 40.9% for botulinum toxin type A 900kD and 33.3% for placebo. The unadjusted recalculated risk difference was 0.074, with a confidence interval from -0.040 to 0.189 and an unadjusted p-value of 0.205. Together, these values describe an observed difference with considerable uncertainty; they do not establish a definitive direction or magnitude of a group effect.

The endpoint is specific: it records whether the physician judged that a participant achieved an individualized active functional goal according to a defined goal attainment scale threshold. It does not capture every aspect of spasticity, daily activity, or quality of life. A participant who did not meet the threshold may still have experienced some change, while meeting the threshold does not convey the size or durability of improvement. The outcome is also tied to the choice of goal and the assessment process, details not fully described in the registry record.

The primary comparison cannot establish that the assigned intervention caused the observed group difference beyond the assumptions of the trial design and analysis. The record describes randomization and double masking, but does not report full implementation details, missing-data handling, or the original analysis plan. The posted comparison is an unadjusted recalculation from summary results, and the registry record does not report a sponsor analysis for the primary endpoint.

The record lists additional functional and quality-of-life outcomes, but only a subset has posted results. The available secondary results vary in direction across assessor and time point, and multiplicity handling is not reported. They therefore provide context, not a definitive resolution of the primary result or a comprehensive picture of all listed outcomes.

These findings are a statistical description of the registry record. They are not medical advice, and they do not answer every question about individual response, long-term function, quality of life, or safety.

17. Why This Trial Matters Statistically

This trial illustrates why a point estimate should be considered alongside its uncertainty. The primary group percentages differ in the observed data, but the confidence interval for the unadjusted risk difference spans values on both sides of zero. Reporting the estimate alone would obscure how much uncertainty remains; reporting only a p-value would likewise fail to show the range of differences compatible with the comparison.

It also demonstrates the importance of defining the outcome precisely. Functional goal attainment is a meaningful type of endpoint for a population with varied needs, but it depends on an individualized goal and a threshold on the goal attainment scale. Statistical interpretation must remain tied to that operational definition rather than treating the percentage as a general measure of all functional change.

The registry record provides group counts, percentages, and a range of outcomes, but does not report a full analysis plan, missing-data methods, multiplicity approach, or original sample-size justification. Such omissions make it harder to judge how closely the posted summaries reflect the trial’s intended analyses. The contrast between a primary endpoint and many secondary outcomes also shows why outcome hierarchy and multiplicity plans matter: broad collections of comparisons need a clear interpretive framework.

Finally, planning estimates based on an observed effect can help illustrate how target effect size and desired power relate to participant requirements. They are useful as planning scenarios, but are not evidence about the power or design assumptions of the completed trial. Keeping those planning illustrations separate from the observed results is essential for sound statistical interpretation.

18. Limitations

The registry record leaves several trial-specific limitations difficult to assess. Although the study is described as randomized and double-blind, details of sequence generation, allocation concealment, blinding roles, and maintenance of blinding are not reported in the registry record. The optional second injection also means that exposure could differ across participants, but the number receiving a second injection and the reasons are not reported.

The primary outcome depends on an individualized functional goal and physician assessment. The registry describes the scale and the achievement threshold, but does not report how goals were selected, whether assessors were trained to a common procedure, or whether assessment reliability was evaluated. The result therefore depends on measurement details that cannot be examined from the posted record.

There is no reported participant flow or account of missing primary endpoint data. The registry defines the primary population as randomized patients who started the study and received a baseline injection, but does not describe exclusions, withdrawals, or missing outcome handling. The enrollment figure and endpoint group denominators are both reported, without an explanation of their relationship.

The record also lacks a reported original sample-size justification, detailed statistical plan, multiplicity approach, and interim-analysis information. Only some listed secondary outcomes have posted results. These gaps limit assessment of the intended analysis, the completeness of outcome reporting, and the extent to which secondary findings should be considered confirmatory.

19. Related Tutorials

20. Related Statistical Calculators

21. Sources

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22. Record Summary

NCT00549783, the BOTOX® Economic Spasticity Trial (BEST), is listed as a completed phase 4 randomized, double-blind, parallel-group trial sponsored by Allergan. It reports enrollment of 274 and compares botulinum toxin type A 900kD with placebo in patients with muscle spasticity following stroke.

The primary endpoint was physician-assessed achievement of a principal active functional goal at week 24. The posted percentages are 40.9% in the botulinum toxin group and 33.3% in the placebo group. The unadjusted recalculated risk difference is 0.074, with a confidence interval from -0.040 to 0.189 and an unadjusted p-value of 0.205.

The record lists additional functional and quality-of-life outcomes, but results are not posted for all of them. It does not report the original sample-size justification, detailed statistical plan, missing-data procedures, or multiplicity approach.

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