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Breast Cancer Phase 3 Binary Endpoint NCT00009945

Clodronate With or Without Chemotherapy and/or Hormonal Therapy in Treating Women With Stage I or Stage II Breast Cancer: Complete Statistical Analysis

A randomized phase III trial compared adjuvant clodronate with placebo in women with stage I or stage II breast cancer. The primary posted result is disease-free survival at 8 years, with additional survival and metastasis outcomes.

Trial start: 2001-01  ·  Enrollment: 3323  ·  Sponsor: NSABP Foundation Inc
Scope of this record

This page provides an independent statistical analysis and educational interpretation of publicly reported results. ClinicalTrials.gov provides the official trial registry record. Numerical trial results on this page are restricted to the results posted in the ClinicalTrials.gov record; calculations added by Clinical Biostats are labelled as such.

1. Trial at a Glance

This page covers the registry results for Clodronate With or Without Chemotherapy and/or Hormonal Therapy in Treating Women With Stage I or Stage II Breast Cancer (NCT00009945), a randomized phase 3 study. The primary outcome is Disease Free Survival..

3323
Enrollment
Phase 3
2
Arms
In the primary outcome
+1.4 pts
Risk difference
Arm 1: Clodronate
-1.3 to 4.1 pts
95% CI
Two-sided
FeatureRegistry value
ClinicalTrials.gov identifierNCT00009945
PhasePhase 3
ConditionBreast Cancer
AllocationRandomized
Design modelParallel
MaskingQuadruple
Enrollment3323
Arms in the primary outcome2
Lead sponsorNSABP Foundation Inc
Results postedYes

2. Clinical Question

Population

Women with stage I or stage II breast cancer. The registry record describes a total enrollment of 3323, with the primary outcome reported for the clodronate and placebo groups. It does not further specify the characteristics of the population included in the outcome analysis.

Intervention

Clodronate, taken as 2 tablets once daily for 3 years. The trial description frames its use alongside systemic chemotherapy and/or hormonal therapy, or without those treatments. The registry record does not report how participants were distributed across those background-treatment circumstances.

Comparator

Placebo, also taken as 2 tablets once daily for 3 years. The comparison is randomized and parallel, with the posted primary outcome showing the percentage of participants disease free at 8 years in each group.

Primary question

Whether the percentage of women disease free at 8 years differed between those assigned clodronate and those assigned placebo. The registry defines an event as recurrence, a second primary cancer, or death. Its posted result is a binary percentage at the stated time point; it does not by itself describe the timing or type of each event.

The trial’s rationale was to evaluate clodronate in preventing metastatic disease in early-stage breast cancer. The registry lists skeletal metastasis-free survival, overall survival, relapse-free survival, and incidence of non-skeletal metastasis as secondary outcomes. These broaden the clinical questions beyond the primary composite outcome, but do not replace it: each measures a different aspect of survival or disease spread.

The registry record does not report separate primary comparisons within chemotherapy or hormonal-therapy subgroups. It also does not report the eligibility details beyond women with stage I or stage II breast cancer. Accordingly, the posted comparison addresses the randomized groups as recorded, not a particular subgroup or background-treatment combination.

3. Trial Design

This was a randomized, phase III, parallel-group trial with quadruple masking. The registry lists NSABP Foundation Inc as the sponsor and records enrollment of 3323. The trial status is completed. Those design features identify the broad structure of the study, but do not fill in details about the allocation procedure, the identities of the masked parties, or how concealment was implemented; those details are not reported in the registry record.

Participants were assigned to clodronate or placebo. Each arm description specifies 2 tablets once daily for 3 years. The official title describes the comparison in patients receiving systemic chemotherapy and/or hormonal therapy or no therapy, and the brief summary similarly describes clodronate with or without those treatments. However, the registry record does not report the number of participants in each background-treatment category or the manner in which those treatments were selected.

The posted primary outcome is disease-free survival, expressed as the percentage of patients disease free at 8 years. The record defines an event as any recurrence, second primary, or death. Secondary outcomes include skeletal metastasis-free survival, overall survival, relapse-free survival, and incidence of non-skeletal metastasis. Posted results are present for the first three secondary survival outcomes; results for incidence of non-skeletal metastasis are not reported in the registry record.

The arm sizes accompanying the primary outcome are 1655.0 for clodronate and 1656.0 for placebo. These outcome denominators should not be assumed to describe every stage of follow-up or every analysis population. The registry record does not report participant flow, exclusions after randomization, the handling of missing outcome data, or the analysis population used for the posted estimates. It also does not report the trial’s original statistical analysis plan, including its intended modeling approach or whether any interim analyses were conducted.

4. Participant Flow and Accounting

The registry reports how participants moved through each stage of the study. All counts below are exactly as posted; missing counts are not inferred from other stages.

Overall Study

StageArm 1: ClodronateArm 2: Placebo
STARTED16621661
COMPLETED16551656
NOT COMPLETED75

Reasons for not completing this period:

ReasonArm 1: ClodronateArm 2: Placebo
no follow up data75

5. Baseline Characteristics

The table reproduces the baseline characteristics posted in the registry, which describe the participants analysed at baseline and help show whether the randomized groups were comparable.

CharacteristicUnitClodronatePlaceboTotal
Participants analysed166216613323
Age, Continuousyears54 (SD 10.5)53 (SD 10.4)54 (SD 10.4)
Sex: Female, Male: FemaleParticipants166216613323
Sex: Female, Male: MaleParticipants000

6. Primary Endpoint

The registry lists the primary outcome as Disease Free Survival., measured over 8 years.

ElementRegistry entry
Result typeNumber
Measure of spreadnot applicable
Unitpercentage of patients
Endpoint classificationBinary Endpoint

The primary endpoint is disease-free survival at 8 years, reported as the percentage of patients. The registry’s description defines an event as recurrence, a second primary cancer, or death, and describes the measure as time to the first such event. The posted result is therefore a fixed-time summary of whether participants remained disease free through the stated follow-up point, rather than a breakdown of event types or a display of the full event-time experience.

A composite endpoint combines multiple kinds of events into one outcome. This can capture several clinically important ways in which disease-free status may end, but it also means that the overall result does not reveal which event types contributed most. The registry record does not report the separate counts for recurrence, second primary cancer, or death within the primary endpoint, nor does it give a definition of recurrence or second primary cancer beyond the brief description.

A fixed-time percentage is useful for describing the proportion disease free at a clinically specified point in follow-up. It gives a direct group-level summary, but does not on its own show when events occurred, how follow-up varied between participants, or how censoring and incomplete follow-up were handled. Those analysis details are not reported in the registry record. The endpoint should therefore be interpreted as the posted percentage at 8 years, with the stated event definition, rather than as a complete account of the survival analysis.

7. Results Posted in the Registry

Risk difference: Arm 1: Clodronate

+1.4

95% CI: -1.3 to 4.1 percentage points

Recalculated from the posted summary statistics

Primary outcome by arm, with 95% confidence intervals
Primary outcome by arm with 95% confidence intervals77.178.379.680.882.183.4Arm 1: Clodronate (n=1655)Arm 2: Placebo (n=1656)% of participants (95% CI)
Treatment effect versus the control arm
Forest plot of risk difference (percentage points) vs control (95% CI)Arm 1: Clodronate-1.70-0.450.812.073.324.58risk difference (percentage points) vs control (95% CI)

8. Secondary Efficacy Endpoints

The registry also posts results for secondary outcomes. For each outcome below, the endpoint type, the test applied to the posted summary statistics, the result and its interpretation are given in turn. Secondary endpoints are usually not adjusted for multiple testing, so they support rather than confirm the primary finding.

Secondary outcomeTypeEffect measureEstimate (95% CI)Planning size, 80% power
Skeletal Metastasis Free SurvivalBinary EndpointRisk difference+1.1 pts (-0.4 to 2.5)6,139 per arm
Overall SurvivalBinary EndpointRisk difference+1.3 pts (-0.8 to 3.3)8,909 per arm
Relapse Free SurvivalBinary EndpointRisk difference+1.6 pts (-0.5 to 3.7)5,779 per arm

Skeletal Metastasis Free Survival

Treatment effect versus the control arm
Forest plot of risk difference (percentage points) vs control (95% CI)Arm 1: Clodronate-0.610.070.751.422.102.78risk difference (percentage points) vs control (95% CI)

Overall Survival

Treatment effect versus the control arm
Forest plot of risk difference (percentage points) vs control (95% CI)Arm 1: Clodronate-1.11-0.160.791.742.693.64risk difference (percentage points) vs control (95% CI)

Relapse Free Survival

Treatment effect versus the control arm
Forest plot of risk difference (percentage points) vs control (95% CI)Arm 1: Clodronate-0.840.151.132.123.104.09risk difference (percentage points) vs control (95% CI)

The reported secondary survival outcomes follow a pattern broadly aligned with the primary result: their point estimates are positive for clodronate, and their unadjusted confidence intervals include no difference. They address different outcomes, so they add context rather than simply repeating the primary question. Overall survival concerns death, while skeletal metastasis-free survival and relapse-free survival concern other aspects of disease course, as indicated by their registry outcome names.

The secondary outcomes relate to the primary result because they provide additional views of survival and metastasis during the same stated follow-up period. Consistency in the direction of the point estimates can be noted, but should not be treated as proof of a common effect or as a collection of independent replications. The outcomes may be related, and the registry record does not report their correlation or the full definitions used to classify events.

Unadjusted secondary results generally carry less inferential weight than a prespecified primary result because multiple outcome tests increase the chance of at least one apparently notable result occurring by chance. In general, multiplicity procedures can address that issue, but the registry record does not report whether an adjustment was planned or used. The posted comparisons are therefore best interpreted as descriptive, endpoint-specific results rather than as a definitive set of confirmatory claims.

Incidence of non-skeletal metastasis is listed as a secondary outcome, but its result is not reported in the registry record. This missing result limits the completeness of the secondary-outcome picture. No inference about that endpoint can be made from the survival summaries or from the other posted secondary results.

Secondary outcomes registered for this trial, for reference (only those above were recalculated):

9. Statistical Interpretation

Clinical Biostats interpretation

At 8 years, the registry reports that 81.0 of participants in the clodronate group were disease free and 79.6 in the placebo group. The unadjusted risk-difference re-calculation is 0.014, with a 95% confidence interval from -0.013 to 0.042 and an unadjusted p-value of 0.298. This describes a modest positive point estimate for clodronate on the posted proportion scale, while the interval includes values on either side of no difference.

The confidence interval is important because the point estimate alone does not convey precision. Values compatible with the interval include a small difference in the direction of a lower disease-free percentage with clodronate as well as a difference in the direction of a higher percentage. The posted results therefore do not establish a precise difference between the groups. The p-value is also not a measure of the probability that either treatment is better; it is a measure of how compatible the observed data are with a specified no-difference statistical model, subject to the assumptions of that calculation.

The percentage values are presented as registry outcome summaries, while the risk difference, interval, and unadjusted p-value are simple unadjusted re-calculations from the posted summary statistics. The registry record does not report a corresponding sponsor analysis for this endpoint. There is no discrepancy flag, so there is no conflicting sponsor estimate in the posted information that would take precedence over the re-calculation. The absence of a reported analysis is still important: the re-calculation cannot establish that it follows the trial’s original planned analysis.

The secondary outcomes show a broadly similar pattern of small positive point estimates for clodronate, with confidence intervals that include no difference. They cover related but distinct questions, such as overall survival and metastasis-free survival, and should not be treated as independent confirmations of the primary outcome. The record lists an additional secondary outcome, incidence of non-skeletal metastasis, but its result is not reported in the registry record.

These results are descriptive of the randomized groups and the posted follow-up summaries. The registry does not report subgroup estimates, adjustment for background chemotherapy or hormonal therapy, a missing-data analysis, or the analysis population. Those omissions limit how far the findings can be interpreted beyond the reported group-level percentages. In particular, the data shown do not identify whether any observed difference is attributable to clodronate within a specific background-treatment category.

Statistical interpretation should distinguish the absence of a clear difference in these unadjusted results from proof that the groups are exactly equivalent. Equivalence or non-inferiority requires a prespecified margin and an analysis designed for that question; neither is reported in the registry record. The posted confidence intervals communicate the range of differences compatible with the summary data under the calculation used, but they do not settle all questions about clinical importance, analysis choices, or generalizability.

10. Statistical Methods Explained

The posted outcome is a percentage, and the associated comparison is expressed as a risk difference. These measures answer related but distinct questions. The percentage describes each randomized group separately; the risk difference describes the difference between the group proportions on the proportion scale. A positive estimate indicates a larger proportion in the clodronate group for this endpoint, while a negative estimate would indicate a smaller proportion. The comparison reported for the primary outcome is 0.014.

What does a confidence interval describe?

In general, a confidence interval describes the uncertainty around an estimate under a stated statistical method. A narrower interval indicates greater precision under that method; a wider interval indicates less precision. For a risk difference, the value corresponding to no difference is zero. The primary interval, from -0.013 to 0.042, spans zero, so the posted summary is compatible with differences in either direction. This does not mean every value in the interval is equally likely, and it does not account for sources of uncertainty that the calculation did not model.

The intervals and p-values accompanying these comparisons are unadjusted re-calculations from posted summary statistics. They should not be mistaken for the trial’s original analysis. The registry record does not report the trial’s original statistical methods, such as whether the primary endpoint was analyzed using a time-to-event model, how censoring was handled, or whether covariates were included. It also does not report the planned test, significance threshold, or model diagnostics. Without those details, the re-calculated comparisons are useful summaries but cannot reproduce or verify an unreported trial analysis.

Why is a binary summary not the whole time-to-event result?

The primary outcome description refers to time to the first event, but the posted measure is the percentage of patients disease free at 8 years. A time-to-event analysis can use the timing of events and account for participants whose event status is not observed throughout follow-up through methods such as censoring. A single percentage does not reveal the event-time distribution or show how those features were handled. This is a general distinction between a fixed-time percentage and a full time-to-event analysis; the registry record does not report the actual analysis method used for the primary endpoint.

The listed secondary outcomes are also reported as percentages at 8 years. Their definitions and analysis details are not fully described in the registry record. For example, the record gives the names skeletal metastasis-free survival, overall survival, and relapse-free survival, but does not provide full operational definitions for each. It is therefore safest to interpret the outcome labels as posted, without assuming additional event rules or methods.

What does an unadjusted comparison leave out?

An unadjusted comparison uses the posted group summaries without accounting for additional variables. It does not necessarily reproduce a stratified or covariate-adjusted analysis. Random assignment is intended to support a fair group comparison, but an unadjusted re-calculation does not reveal how the trial’s planned analysis may have treated baseline characteristics, stratification factors, or background therapy. The registry record does not report such details, so no claim about their role in the official analysis can be made.

The unadjusted p-value for the primary comparison is 0.298. In general, a p-value assesses compatibility between data and a statistical null hypothesis under the calculation’s assumptions. It is not the probability that the null hypothesis is true, nor does it measure the size or importance of the observed difference. Its interpretation depends on the analysis plan, and the registry record does not report whether the trial’s own analysis used this test or how it handled testing across outcomes.

Why does over-dispersion matter in general?

For outcomes modeled as counts or rates, over-dispersion means that variation is greater than a model expects. If ignored, standard errors may be too small and intervals too narrow. This is a general modeling issue, not a feature established for the posted binary endpoint. The primary result is a percentage, and the registry record does not report a count or rate model, dispersion estimate, or any over-dispersion assessment. It would not be appropriate to attribute an over-dispersion correction to this trial.

Likewise, the record does not report interim monitoring, stopping rules, multiplicity adjustments, prespecified subgroup analyses, or a sample-size justification. Absence from the registry is not proof that such procedures were never used; it means their use and details are not reported in the registry record. The statistical interpretation should remain anchored to the posted arm summaries and clearly identified unadjusted re-calculations.

11. Confidence Intervals and Precision

The primary estimate is 0.014, with a 95% confidence interval from -0.013 to 0.042. Since the interval includes zero, the summary data do not distinguish a difference from no difference under this unadjusted calculation. The interval also extends in both directions, so the point estimate should not be read as a precise estimate of the underlying group contrast.

In general, a confidence interval reflects sampling uncertainty under the method used to calculate it. It does not automatically incorporate every uncertainty relevant to the result, including uncertainties about outcome measurement, missing follow-up, model choice, or selective reporting. The registry record does not report enough analysis detail to assess those issues for the trial’s original analysis. The reported interval is thus best read as precision for the simple unadjusted re-calculation from the posted summaries.

There are no confidence limits beside the separate arm percentages in the record. The comparison interval is more informative about the group contrast than comparing the two percentages in isolation, because it directly quantifies uncertainty around their difference. However, it should not be extended to claims about a particular subgroup, a particular event type, or a different follow-up time.

The secondary comparisons also have intervals that include zero. Their precision differs by endpoint, but their results are not independent tests of one underlying question. Looking across several outcomes makes the full inferential picture broader, while also raising the issue of multiplicity. The registry record does not report an adjustment for multiple comparisons, so the unadjusted intervals should be interpreted as endpoint-specific summaries rather than as a family of jointly controlled inferences.

12. Planning a Similar Trial: Sample Size

This is a planning illustration, not a re-evaluation of the original trial. It asks: if a new study wanted to detect a difference like the one observed, or a smaller one, how large would it need to be? It is deliberately not “observed power” of the finished trial, which is not a meaningful quantity.

Effect to detectParticipants per arm, 80% powerParticipants per arm, 90% power
100% of the observed effect12,00716,074
75% of the observed effect21,49428,773
50% of the observed effect48,69065,181
Sample size needed versus the size of the effect to detect
Sample size needed versus size of effect to detect10,00020,00050,000100,000200,00040%60%80%100%80% power90% powersize of effect to detect, as % of the effect observed (log vertical scale: participants per arm)
Treat these figures cautiously. The observed difference is imprecise: its confidence interval includes no difference at all. A sample size built on a noisy estimate can be far too small or too large, so the smaller-effect rows are the more cautious guide.
Method and assumptions. Two-sided α = 0.05, 1:1 allocation, pooled-variance normal approximation for two proportions. Counts were reconstructed from the posted percentages and arm sizes, so small rounding differences are possible. Calculated for the comparison: Arm 1: Clodronate.

The sample-size display is a planning illustration based on the observed effect, not the trial’s own original design justification. For these binary percentage outcomes, the displayed figures are participants per arm. No event-total interpretation should be applied: the listed assumption for these outcomes specifies participants per arm, whereas the general note about total event counts applies to time-to-event planning displays.

The listed planning assumptions are a two-sided significance level of 0.05, equal allocation between the two arms, and a normal approximation. The effect to detect is set to a stated fraction of the observed effect. The registry record does not report the assumptions used for the trial’s original design, so these illustrations should not be taken as a reconstruction of its planning.

The 80% power column gives the planned number of participants per arm for a hypothetical study to have an 80% chance of detecting the specified effect under the stated assumptions, if that effect is real and the assumptions hold. The 90% power column gives the corresponding planning target for a 90% chance. These are design calculations, not probabilities that the trial result is correct and not a measure of the trial’s achieved ability to detect an effect.

Rows planning for 100%, 75%, and 50% of the observed effect show how the illustrative target changes as the assumed effect becomes smaller. Smaller effects need more participants to be detected with the same target power, all else held to the listed assumptions. These figures are not observed power; they are planning illustrations that depend on the effect selected and the specified calculation assumptions.

13. How the Sample Size Is Derived

Power is the probability that a study of a given size rejects the null hypothesis when a specific true effect exists. It depends on four things: the effect to detect, the variability of the outcome, the significance level (here a two-sided α of 0.05, so z1−α/2 = 1.960) and the desired power (z1−β = 0.842 for 80% and 1.282 for 90%).

Formula

n = [ z1−α/2 √(2p̄(1−p̄)) + z1−β √(p0(1−p0) + p1(1−p1)) ]2 / (p1 − p0)2

n is the number of participants in each arm, p0 and p1 are the control and treatment proportions, and p̄ is their average.

Worked calculation for this trial

  1. Control proportion p0 = 0.796; treatment proportion p1 = 0.810; average p̄ = 0.803.
  2. First term: z1−α/2 × √[2p̄(1−p̄)] = 1.96 × 0.5624 = 1.1023.
  3. Second term: z1−β × √[p0(1−p0) + p1(1−p1)] = 0.842 × 0.5623 = 0.4732.
  4. n = (1.1023 + 0.4732)2 / (0.0144)2 = 12,006.9, rounded up to 12,007 participants per arm for 80% power.

The smaller-effect rows in the table above repeat the same calculation with the effect multiplied by 0.75 and 0.5 (for ratios, applied to the logarithm of the ratio).

R code

alpha <- 0.05
z_a   <- qnorm(1 - alpha / 2)          # two-sided
p0 <- 0.795893719806763                          # control proportion
p1 <- 0.810271903323263                          # treatment proportion
n_per_arm <- function(power, frac = 1) {
  q1 <- p0 + (p1 - p0) * frac               # smaller effect = fraction of the observed difference
  pbar <- (p0 + q1) / 2
  z_b <- qnorm(power)
  ceiling(round((z_a * sqrt(2 * pbar * (1 - pbar)) + z_b * sqrt(p0 * (1 - p0) + q1 * (1 - q1)))^2 / (q1 - p0)^2, 6))
}
for (f in c(1, 0.75, 0.5))
  cat(sprintf("%3.0f%% of observed effect: n per arm = %s (80%% power), %s (90%% power)\n", 100 * f,
              format(n_per_arm(0.80, f), big.mark = ","), format(n_per_arm(0.90, f), big.mark = ",")))

# Check against R's built-in function (unrounded n per arm)
cat("power.prop.test:", round(power.prop.test(p1 = p0, p2 = p1, power = 0.80)$n, 1), "\n")

# Simulation: how often does the z-test reject at the 80%-power sample size?
set.seed(9945)
n    <- n_per_arm(0.80)
reps <- 20000
x0 <- rbinom(reps, n, p0); x1 <- rbinom(reps, n, p1)
ph <- (x0 + x1) / (2 * n)
z  <- ((x1 - x0) / n) / sqrt(ph * (1 - ph) * 2 / n)
cat(sprintf("Simulated power at n = %s per arm: %.3f (%d replicates)\n", format(n, big.mark = ","), mean(abs(z) > z_a, na.rm = TRUE), reps))

Output from running the code

100% of observed effect: n per arm = 12,007 (80% power), 16,074 (90% power)
 75% of observed effect: n per arm = 21,494 (80% power), 28,773 (90% power)
 50% of observed effect: n per arm = 48,690 (80% power), 65,181 (90% power)
power.prop.test: 12006.9 
Simulated power at n = 12,007 per arm: 0.800 (20000 replicates)

The simulation draws many pairs of event counts at the planned sample size and counts how often the two-proportion z-test rejects the null. It should land close to the target power; at very small required sample sizes it can fall below it, because the normal approximation is rough there.

14. Multiplicity, Missing Data and Analysis Populations

The registry lists a primary outcome and several secondary outcomes, but it does not report how the trial handled multiple statistical tests. When multiple outcomes are tested, the chance of finding at least one apparently unusual result can rise. In general, a prespecified testing hierarchy or adjustment can control that issue, but the registry record does not report whether either was used. The secondary p-values and intervals should therefore be read as unadjusted endpoint-specific summaries, not as results with documented family-wise error control.

The registry record also does not report an analysis plan describing how missing outcome data were handled. It gives no account of loss to follow-up, censoring rules, imputation, or sensitivity analyses. For a fixed-time survival percentage, these details can affect how participants with incomplete follow-up contribute to the estimate. The posted outcome denominators do not, by themselves, explain the status or follow-up of participants who are not represented in a given result.

The analysis population is not reported in the registry record. It is therefore not possible to determine from the posted information whether the displayed outcome results follow an intention-to-treat approach, a per-protocol approach, or another defined population. Nor does the record explain whether participants were analyzed according to assigned group regardless of treatment received. This is a key distinction when interpreting randomized trial results.

Subgroup analysis plans and treatment-by-subgroup interaction tests are also not reported. The trial description includes participants receiving chemotherapy and/or hormonal therapy or no therapy, but the posted results do not establish separate effects within those background-treatment categories. Without reported subgroup definitions, sample sizes, and analysis methods, group-level results should not be extended to specific treatment combinations.

Finally, the registry record does not report interim analyses, monitoring boundaries, stopping criteria, or the trial’s original statistical plan. These details cannot be inferred from completion status or from the final posted summaries. Their absence from the registry record should be understood as a reporting limitation, rather than evidence for or against any particular procedure.

15. Safety Results

The registry reports serious adverse events as affected participants divided by participants at risk.

ArmParticipants with serious adverse eventsParticipants at riskPercentage
Clodronate340161221.1%
Placebo350162321.6%
Participants with at least one serious adverse event
Serious adverse events by armClodronate21.1%Placebo21.6%% of participants with at least one serious adverse event

Deaths

ArmDeaths (participants affected of at risk)
Clodronate5 of 1612
Placebo12 of 1623

Other (non-serious) adverse events

Participants with at least one non-serious event at or above the registry's 5% reporting threshold.

ArmParticipants affected of at risk
Clodronate73 of 1612
Placebo107 of 1623

Most frequent serious adverse event terms

Event termOrgan systemClodronatePlacebo
Neutrophil count decreasedInvestigations73 of 1612107 of 1623
White blood cell decreasedInvestigations45 of 161266 of 1623
Infections and infestations - Other, specifyInfections and infestations27 of 161228 of 1623
Thromboembolic eventVascular disorders18 of 161230 of 1623
DiarrheaGastrointestinal disorders29 of 161210 of 1623
Wound infectionInfections and infestations17 of 161217 of 1623
HypertensionVascular disorders11 of 161214 of 1623
Alanine aminotransferase increased (ALT/SGPT)Investigations15 of 16127 of 1623
DyspneaRespiratory, thoracic and mediastinal disorders9 of 161213 of 1623
HyperglycemiaMetabolism and nutrition disorders8 of 161213 of 1623

Most frequent non-serious adverse event terms

Event termOrgan systemClodronatePlacebo
Neutrophil count decreasedInvestigations73 of 1612107 of 1623

Serious events with the highest arm-level rate: neutrophil count decreased (6.6%), white blood cell decreased (4.1%), thromboembolic event (1.8%), diarrhea (1.8%), infections and infestations - other, specify (1.7%).

Do not overextend the safety comparison. Serious-adverse-event counts are safety observations, not efficacy outcomes, and should not be combined with the primary result into a single benefit-risk number.

The adverse-event record lists serious adverse events for groups with 1612 participants at risk in the clodronate group and 1623 at risk in the placebo group. It records 340 and 350 participants with a serious adverse event, respectively. For other adverse events, the corresponding numbers at risk are also 1612 and 1623, with 73 and 107 participants affected. The record lists 5 deaths for clodronate and 12 for placebo.

These are counts and denominators as recorded, not a complete safety comparison. The registry record does not report a statistical comparison, confidence intervals, adjustment for exposure time, or details about how events were attributed to treatment. The serious-event terms listed most often include neutrophil count decreased at 6.6%, white blood cell decreased at 4.1%, thromboembolic event at 1.8%, diarrhea at 1.8%, infections and infestations - Other, specify at 1.7%, and wound infection at 1.1%.

Adverse-event categories and event-term frequencies should be read as descriptive registry entries. They do not, on their own, establish whether an event was caused by study treatment or whether the groups differed statistically.

16. What the Result Does, and Does Not, Mean

The primary posted result describes disease-free status at 8 years in the randomized clodronate and placebo groups. The clodronate group’s reported percentage is 81.0 and the placebo group’s is 79.6. The unadjusted re-calculated risk difference is 0.014, with a 95% confidence interval from -0.013 to 0.042. This is a group-level estimate with uncertainty, not a direct prediction for any individual participant.

The confidence interval includes zero, and the unadjusted p-value is 0.298. These features mean the posted summary does not provide a clear statistical distinction between the groups under the simple comparison reported. They do not prove that the groups are identical, nor do they prove that an effect is absent. The interval remains compatible with effects in either direction, and the registry record does not provide a prespecified equivalence margin or an equivalence analysis.

The outcome is a composite: recurrence, a second primary cancer, or death. Consequently, the overall percentage does not show which of those events contributed to the group summaries. It also does not describe the detailed timing of events or the handling of participants with incomplete follow-up. The registry record does not report those components or methods.

The secondary results offer additional descriptive information about survival and metastasis outcomes, but should not be treated as independent confirmation of the primary result. They are unadjusted comparisons, and multiplicity handling is not reported. Results for the listed incidence of non-skeletal metastasis outcome are not reported in the registry record.

These findings do not establish a benefit or lack of benefit for every subgroup or background-treatment context described in the trial title. The record does not give separate comparisons for chemotherapy or hormonal therapy categories. Nor should the posted group results be translated into individual medical decisions. The appropriate statistical conclusion is limited to the stated outcome, at the stated follow-up point, and to the randomized groups as represented in the registry record.

17. Why This Trial Matters Statistically

This trial is statistically informative because it combines random assignment, a placebo comparator, masking, and a large recorded enrollment with a long-term fixed-time outcome. Randomization is a design feature intended to support a comparison between groups, while masking can reduce the influence of expectations on trial conduct and outcome assessment. The registry record describes quadruple masking, but does not detail how it was implemented.

The result also illustrates why a point estimate and its uncertainty must be read together. The primary point estimate favors a higher disease-free percentage in the clodronate group, but the confidence interval spans zero. A single direction or p-value cannot replace consideration of the interval, the endpoint definition, and the analysis method. The reported comparison is an unadjusted re-calculation, rather than a documented reconstruction of the trial’s planned analysis.

The trial’s several survival and metastasis outcomes illustrate the challenge of interpreting a family of related endpoints. Consistent direction across estimates can be descriptively relevant, yet it does not remove the need to consider multiple testing, outcome definitions, and the dependence among measures. The record does not report multiplicity procedures or full analysis specifications.

Finally, the sample-size illustrations show how planning targets depend on the assumed effect size and power goal. They are distinct from the trial’s own design rationale, which is not reported in the registry record. Keeping planning calculations separate from observed results prevents a retrospective calculation from being mistaken for an original protocol decision or evidence of achieved power.

18. Limitations

The registry record provides only limited detail about how the posted survival percentages were estimated. Although the primary endpoint is described as time to first event, the posted result is a percentage at 8 years. The record does not report the statistical estimator, the handling of censoring, follow-up completeness, or whether the percentage is based on a time-to-event analysis or another approach.

Outcome definitions are not fully specified. The primary event includes recurrence, a second primary cancer, or death, but the registry does not provide further operational definitions or component counts. The secondary outcome labels likewise do not provide complete event rules. This restricts comparison of the posted measures with differently defined outcomes in other settings.

The record does not report the trial’s analysis population, participant flow, missing-data methods, original statistical plan, or subgroup analyses. Although the description includes chemotherapy and/or hormonal therapy or no therapy, the reported results do not separate these contexts. The posted group comparison therefore cannot answer whether results differed across those treatment circumstances.

Several statistical details are also unavailable: the original sample-size justification, any interim analysis or stopping rules, the approach to multiplicity, and the planned model. The simple unadjusted re-calculations from posted summary statistics do not resolve these gaps. In addition, incidence of non-skeletal metastasis is listed as a secondary outcome, but its result is not reported in the registry record.

These limitations concern the information available in the registry record and do not establish that particular procedures were absent from the trial. They do mean that the posted results are not sufficient to evaluate every aspect of trial conduct, analysis, or outcome reporting.

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22. Record Summary

The registry describes a completed randomized phase III, parallel-group, quadruple-masked trial sponsored by NSABP Foundation Inc. It enrolled 3323 women with stage I or stage II breast cancer and compared clodronate with placebo; both arm descriptions specify 2 tablets once daily for 3 years.

The primary endpoint is disease-free survival at 8 years, defined by recurrence, a second primary cancer, or death. The posted percentages are 81.0 for clodronate and 79.6 for placebo. The unadjusted re-calculated risk difference is 0.014, with a 95% confidence interval from -0.013 to 0.042 and p = 0.298.

Secondary survival results are also posted, while the result for incidence of non-skeletal metastasis is not reported in the registry record. The registry does not report the original statistical analysis plan, missing-data methods, multiplicity procedures, or subgroup results.

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