← Clinical Trials
Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder Phase 4 Continuous Endpoint NCT01985581

Efficacy of GXR as Adjunctive Therapy With Psycho-stimulant on Executive Function in Children With ADHD: Complete Statistical Analysis

This randomized crossover trial examined guanfacine extended release added to stimulant therapy in children with ADHD, with parent-rated executive function as the primary outcome. The registry’s sponsor-reported analysis and an unadjusted recalculation give different estimates, so the sponsor’s analysis takes precedence.

Trial start: 2013-10  ·  Enrollment: 50  ·  Sponsor: JPM van Stralen Medicine Professional
Scope of this record

This page provides an independent statistical analysis and educational interpretation of publicly reported results. ClinicalTrials.gov provides the official trial registry record. Numerical trial results on this page are restricted to the results posted in the ClinicalTrials.gov record; calculations added by Clinical Biostats are labelled as such.

1. Trial at a Glance

This page covers the registry results for Efficacy of GXR as Adjunctive Therapy With Psycho-stimulant on Executive Function in Children With ADHD (NCT01985581), a randomized phase 4 study. The primary outcome is Effect of Adjunctive INTUNIV Extended Release Treatment on Executive Function as Assessed by Change From Baseline on the BRIEF-parent Questionnaires.

50
Enrollment
Phase 4
2
Arms
In the primary outcome
-1.60
Mean difference
GXR and Stimulant
-5.74–2.54
95% CI
Two-sided
FeatureRegistry value
ClinicalTrials.gov identifierNCT01985581
PhasePhase 4
ConditionAttention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder
AllocationRandomized
Design modelCrossover
MaskingQuadruple
Enrollment50
Arms in the primary outcome2
Lead sponsorJPM van Stralen Medicine Professional
Results postedYes

2. Clinical Question

Population

Children aged 6–12 years diagnosed with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), continuing stable stimulant therapy. The primary analysis population was defined as participants who took at least one dose of treatment and completed at least one non-baseline BRIEF questionnaire during either treatment period.

Intervention

Guanfacine extended release (GXR), also referred to in the registry record as INTUNIV extended release, added to usual stimulant therapy. The dose was optimized to between 1 and 4mg.

Comparator

Placebo added to the participant’s usual stimulant therapy. Participants continued a stable stimulant dosage during both intervention periods.

Primary question

Did change from baseline in parent-rated executive function, measured with the BRIEF-parent questionnaire at the end of each treatment period, differ between GXR plus stimulant and placebo plus stimulant?

The registry describes a crossover evaluation: participants received both adjunctive treatments in different sequences, with one sequence starting with placebo and the other starting with GXR. The central statistical question is therefore a comparison of the reported changes under the two treatment conditions, rather than a comparison of two unrelated groups. The registry record gives arm-level summaries and a sponsor-reported analysis, but does not report enough detail to reconstruct the full crossover model or its assumptions. The primary outcome concerns parent assessments of everyday executive function; quality of life, ADHD symptom ratings, and safety outcomes were also included among the secondary outcomes.

3. Trial Design

NCT01985581 is recorded as a completed Phase 4, randomized, quadruple-masked, placebo-controlled, single-center crossover study. The registry lists enrollment of 50 participants. The study began in 2013-10, and primary completion was recorded as 2015-03. The official title describes an evaluation of GXR as adjunctive treatment with stimulant therapy in children with ADHD, focusing on executive function and quality of life at home and school.

Participants continued their stable usual stimulant therapy while receiving adjunctive GXR and placebo in separate intervention periods. One sequence was placebo first and GXR second; the other was GXR first and placebo second. Each intervention period is described as 12 weeks. The GXR dose was optimized to between 1 and 4mg. The stimulant medicines listed in the arm descriptions include Ritalin, Ritalin SR, Biphentin, Concerta, Vyvanse, Adderall, or Dexedrine.

For a crossover design, each participant can contribute observations under both treatment conditions. In general, this can make a within-participant comparison informative because stable differences between participants may be less influential than in a parallel-group comparison. However, the registry record does not report a washout period, the timing of any washout, or the detailed statistical handling of period and sequence effects. It also does not report the trial’s original sample-size justification or the full analysis plan. The enrollment figure is the planned or recorded enrollment, whereas the outcome-specific counts differ by measure; the primary outcome summaries include 48 participants in the placebo-and-stimulant condition and 47 in the GXR-and-stimulant condition.

4. Participant Flow and Accounting

The registry reports how participants moved through each stage of the study. All counts below are exactly as posted; missing counts are not inferred from other stages.

First Intervention

StagePlacebo First Then GXRGXR First Then Placebo
STARTED2525
COMPLETED2223
NOT COMPLETED32

Second Intervention

StagePlacebo First Then GXRGXR First Then Placebo
STARTED2223
COMPLETED2019
NOT COMPLETED24

Analysis population for the primary outcome, as defined in the registry: ITT population - consisting of subjects who took at least one dose of treatment and completed at least one non-baseline BRIEF questionnaire during either period 1 or period 2.

5. Baseline Characteristics

The table reproduces the baseline characteristics posted in the registry, which describe the participants analysed at baseline and help show whether the randomized groups were comparable.

CharacteristicUnitPLB First Then GXRGXR First Then PLBTotal
Participants analysed252550
Age, Continuousyears9.0 (7 to 11)10 (7 to 12)9.5 (7 to 12)
Sex: Female, Male: FemaleParticipants538
Sex: Female, Male: MaleParticipants202242
Region of Enrollment: Canadaparticipants252550

6. Primary Endpoint

The registry lists the primary outcome as Effect of Adjunctive INTUNIV Extended Release Treatment on Executive Function as Assessed by Change From Baseline on the BRIEF-parent Questionnaires, measured over measured at baseline and end of each 12 week treament arm.

ElementRegistry entry
Result typeMean
Measure of spreadStandard Error
Unitunits on a scale
Endpoint classificationContinuous Endpoint

The primary endpoint is change from baseline in the parent-completed Behavioural Rating Inventory of Executive Function (BRIEF-parent). The registry describes the questionnaire as an 86 item measure of real-world expressions of executive function at home. Executive functions include processes such as emotional control, planning, organization, working memory, behavioral inhibition, and managing time and space. These are assessed through a parent’s report rather than by a direct performance test in the endpoint described.

The questionnaire score is converted to a t-score. The registry states that a score less than 65 is considered within the normal range and that higher scores indicate worsening function. Because the endpoint is change from baseline, the treatment comparison concerns how the score changed over each treatment period, not simply the score at one time point. A negative change indicates a reduction in the score; given the stated score direction, that is a change toward lower reported difficulty. The registry does not provide the baseline or end-of-period mean score levels in the posted outcome summaries, so the change estimates alone do not establish the participants’ absolute level of functioning.

Parent ratings are relevant to the stated focus on everyday functioning at home, but the outcome is still a questionnaire-based assessment. The registry also describes teacher ratings in its study summary, while the posted primary endpoint is specifically the BRIEF-parent measure. The endpoint was measured at baseline and at the end of each 12 week treatment arm.

7. Results Posted in the Registry

Mean difference: GXR and Stimulant

-1.60

95% CI: -5.74 to 2.54

Recalculated from the posted summary statistics

Primary outcome by arm, with 95% confidence intervals
Primary outcome by arm with 95% confidence intervals-10.6-8.9-7.1-5.3-3.5-1.7Placebo and Stimulant (n=48)GXR and Stimulant (n=47)units on a scale (95% CI)
Treatment effect versus the control arm
Forest plot of mean difference vs control (95% CI)GXR and Stimulant-6.41-4.48-2.56-0.641.283.21mean difference vs control (95% CI)

8. Secondary Efficacy Endpoints

The registry also posts results for secondary outcomes. For each outcome below, the endpoint type, the test applied to the posted summary statistics, the result and its interpretation are given in turn. Secondary endpoints are usually not adjusted for multiple testing, so they support rather than confirm the primary finding.

Secondary outcomeTypeEffect measureEstimate (95% CI)Planning size, 80% power
Effect of Adjunctive INTUNIV Extended Release Treatment on Change in Quality of Life as Assessed by the KINDL®-Child Questionnaire.Continuous EndpointMean difference0.40 (-4.04 to 4.84)11,676 per arm
Effect of Adjunct Therapy on ADHD Symptom Control as Assessed by the Change in the ADHD Rating Scale (ADHD-RS-IV)Continuous EndpointMean difference-5.60 (-9.95 to -1.25)59 per arm
Evaluate the Effect of Adjunctive INTUNIV Extended Release Treatment on Change in Quality of Life as Assessed by the KINDL®-Parent Questionnaire.Continuous EndpointMean difference-2.00 (-6.03 to 2.03)395 per arm

Effect of Adjunctive INTUNIV Extended Release Treatment on Change in Quality of Life as Assessed by the KINDL®-Child Questionnaire.

Treatment effect versus the control arm
Forest plot of mean difference vs control (95% CI)GXR and Stimulant-4.74-2.69-0.631.433.495.54mean difference vs control (95% CI)

Effect of Adjunct Therapy on ADHD Symptom Control as Assessed by the Change in the ADHD Rating Scale (ADHD-RS-IV)

Treatment effect versus the control arm
Forest plot of mean difference vs control (95% CI)GXR and Stimulant-11-8.44-6.13-3.82-1.510.80mean difference vs control (95% CI)

Evaluate the Effect of Adjunctive INTUNIV Extended Release Treatment on Change in Quality of Life as Assessed by the KINDL®-Parent Questionnaire.

Treatment effect versus the control arm
Forest plot of mean difference vs control (95% CI)GXR and Stimulant-6.68-4.81-2.94-1.060.812.68mean difference vs control (95% CI)

The posted secondary outcomes cover quality of life, ADHD symptoms, and safety. Across the continuous outcomes with posted numerical comparisons, the broad pattern is not uniform: the symptom-rating outcome has more consistent evidence of a difference across the sponsor analysis and the simple recalculation, while quality-of-life outcomes do not show similarly clear evidence. One quality-of-life comparison also illustrates that model-based and unadjusted results need not align exactly. The detailed outcome estimates are best read with their respective outcome definitions and analysis methods, rather than combined into one overall claim.

This pattern provides context for the primary BRIEF-parent result, but it does not independently settle the discrepancy between the sponsor’s primary model and the primary recalculation. The outcomes measure different constructs, use different questionnaires or ratings, and may have different analysis populations. In addition, the registry lists six secondary outcomes, while numerical summaries are posted for only some of them. The registry record does not explain the absence of numerical results for the remaining secondary outcomes.

Secondary outcomes generally carry less confirmatory weight than the primary endpoint because they are not the main stated question and because multiple outcomes create more opportunities for apparently notable findings. No multiplicity adjustment is reported in the registry record. Therefore, unadjusted secondary p-values should be regarded as exploratory evidence rather than treated as a set of independent confirmations. The secondary pattern may help identify areas for further study, but it does not establish an overall treatment effect across executive function, symptoms, and quality of life.

Secondary outcomes registered for this trial, for reference (only those above were recalculated):

9. Statistical Interpretation

Clinical Biostats interpretation

For the primary outcome, the unadjusted recalculation from the posted arm summaries gives a mean change of -5.3 for placebo plus stimulant and -6.9 for GXR plus stimulant. The unadjusted mean difference, expressed as GXR plus stimulant compared with placebo plus stimulant, is -1.6, with a 95% confidence interval from -5.745 to 2.545 and p = 0.449. The estimate is in the direction of a larger decrease in BRIEF-parent score with GXR, but the interval includes no difference and also includes values in the opposite direction. This recalculation therefore does not provide a precise estimate of a difference between conditions.

The sponsor-reported ANOVA gives an LS mean difference of -3.0, with a 95% confidence interval from -5.9 to -0.2 and p = 0.039. That interval excludes zero. The sponsor analysis and the unadjusted recalculation differ, and the registry record does not explain the source of the discrepancy in sufficient detail to reconcile them. Because the discrepancy is flagged, the sponsor’s own analysis takes precedence over the simple unadjusted recalculation. These estimates should not be blended or treated as interchangeable: one is the sponsor-reported model result, and the other is a recalculation based on posted summary statistics.

The direction of the primary estimates is consistent with lower BRIEF-parent scores under GXR plus stimulant, but the statistical evidence depends on which analysis is considered. The posted sponsor analysis supports a difference under its model; the unadjusted summary-statistic recalculation is less conclusive and much less precise. The registry record does not report a clinically important difference threshold for this measure, so statistical evidence alone cannot establish whether an estimated change is large enough to matter to families or to daily functioning.

Across the secondary outcomes, the ADHD symptom rating shows a similar direction of change in the sponsor analysis and the unadjusted recalculation. The quality-of-life outcomes do not show comparably clear evidence of a difference, and the secondary results include another contrast where the sponsor analysis and simple recalculation are not alike. These outcomes are secondary and are considered without a reported multiplicity adjustment. They offer context about the range of outcomes assessed, but should not be treated as independent confirmation of the primary result.

The registry’s safety summaries report zero participants with serious adverse events in either treatment condition, while 41 participants in each condition experienced other adverse events. The record does not list serious adverse event terms. These counts describe what was posted for the trial and do not, by themselves, establish comparative safety or attribute events to a treatment.

10. Statistical Methods Explained

The primary measure is continuous: it is a score on a scale, and the registry reports means and standard errors. A mean describes the average observed change among participants contributing data to a treatment condition. A standard error describes the precision of an estimated mean, rather than the spread of individual participants’ scores. The registry’s primary summaries report 48 participants for placebo plus stimulant and 47 for GXR plus stimulant.

What does the unadjusted recalculation compare?

The recalculation subtracts the posted mean change for placebo plus stimulant from the posted mean change for GXR plus stimulant. The resulting mean difference is -1.6. It is an unadjusted comparison derived from the arm-level summary statistics; it is not the sponsor’s crossover-model estimate. In general, an unadjusted comparison of separate condition summaries does not necessarily reproduce a model that uses the crossover structure or other adjustments. The registry record does not provide the detailed model specification needed to identify exactly which features account for the difference between the two estimates.

The recalculation also gives a standardized effect estimate of -0.155 using the posted pooled standard deviation of 10.3. A standardized effect expresses a difference relative to a measure of variability, so it can describe the estimated difference without retaining the original scale units. It does not replace the scale-based mean difference, and it does not establish clinical importance. The registry record does not report a threshold for a clinically important BRIEF-parent change.

How should the confidence interval and p-value be read?

A confidence interval expresses the uncertainty around an estimated difference under the assumptions of the analysis. The recalculated 95% confidence interval extends from -5.745 to 2.545. Since it includes zero, the posted summary statistics are compatible with no difference as well as with differences in either direction under this calculation. A p-value describes how unusual data at least as inconsistent with a specified no-difference model would be, if that model and its assumptions were correct. The recalculated p-value is 0.449. It is not the probability that the treatments are the same, nor does it measure the size or importance of an effect.

The sponsor’s reported primary analysis is an ANOVA with an LS mean difference of -3.0, a 95% confidence interval from -5.9 to -0.2, and p = 0.039. An LS mean is a model-based mean adjusted according to the model’s terms; the record does not state the full set of terms or the precise contrast coding. The reported interval excludes zero, unlike the recalculated interval. Because the record flags a discrepancy, the sponsor’s analysis takes precedence. The reported and recalculated results should be interpreted as distinct analyses rather than as two estimates of a fully specified common model.

Why does the crossover design matter?

In general, a crossover study compares treatments received by the same participants in separate periods. That can account for stable participant characteristics when the analysis explicitly uses within-participant information. Period effects, order effects, and carryover from one treatment period to another can also matter. The registry record does not report whether or how these effects were assessed, the details of any washout, or the model’s handling of repeated observations. Therefore, the full appropriateness and assumptions of the sponsor’s analysis cannot be evaluated from the posted description alone.

For general context, when repeated observations from one participant are related, an analysis that treats them as independent can misrepresent uncertainty. A model designed for the study structure may account for that relationship, but the details matter. The available record identifies an ANOVA and reports LS mean differences; it does not give enough detail to explain the treatment of within-participant correlation or missing observations.

What can the secondary analyses add?

The secondary outcomes include continuous questionnaire and rating-scale changes, along with safety outcomes. The registry reports sponsor ANOVA results for the posted continuous secondary outcomes and also supplies summary-statistic recalculations. These analyses are not all equivalent: the ANOVA reports model-based LS mean differences, while the recalculations are unadjusted comparisons based on posted means and standard errors. The additional analyses can show whether outcome patterns are broadly consistent, but should be read with attention to their secondary status and the number of outcomes considered.

In general, testing multiple outcomes can increase the chance that at least one result appears statistically notable even when there is no true effect across the outcomes. No multiplicity adjustment is reported in the registry record. That absence does not invalidate an individual result, but it means unadjusted secondary p-values are less persuasive as confirmatory evidence. The record also does not report a complete statistical analysis plan, missing-data method, or interim-analysis plan. Those omissions limit assessment of whether the reported analyses were prespecified and how incomplete outcome data were handled.

11. Confidence Intervals and Precision

The primary unadjusted recalculation estimates a mean difference of -1.6, with a 95% confidence interval from -5.745 to 2.545. The interval is wide enough to include a range of plausible differences, including zero and values on either side of zero. It therefore does not locate the primary effect precisely. The recalculated p-value of 0.449 is consistent with that uncertainty, but the interval is more informative about the range of estimates compatible with the calculation than a single significance decision.

The sponsor-reported 95% confidence interval is from -5.9 to -0.2 around an LS mean difference of -3.0. This interval excludes zero, but it also spans more than one possible magnitude of difference. Its interpretation depends on the sponsor model and the contrast used. The registry record does not provide enough detail to reproduce the model or resolve why this interval differs from the unadjusted recalculation’s interval. Given the flagged discrepancy, the sponsor analysis takes precedence, while the recalculation remains a distinct descriptive check.

In general, a confidence interval indicates statistical precision under the analysis assumptions; it does not show the probability that a particular value is true. A narrow interval indicates greater precision than a wide interval, but even a precise estimate may not be clinically important. Conversely, an interval that includes zero does not prove there is no difference. The registry record does not provide a clinically important difference threshold for BRIEF-parent scores, so the clinical importance of the values within either interval cannot be determined from these results alone.

The outcome-specific sample counts are close to the enrollment figure, but the record does not explain missingness by period or provide the reasons for participants not contributing to each analysis. Without that information and the detailed crossover model, precision should be understood as specific to each posted analysis rather than as a complete account of uncertainty arising from study design and missing data.

12. Planning a Similar Trial: Sample Size

This is a planning illustration, not a re-evaluation of the original trial. It asks: if a new study wanted to detect a difference like the one observed, or a smaller one, how large would it need to be? It is deliberately not “observed power” of the finished trial, which is not a meaningful quantity.

Effect to detectParticipants per arm, 80% powerParticipants per arm, 90% power
100% of the observed effect651872
75% of the observed effect1,1571,549
50% of the observed effect2,6043,485
Sample size needed versus the size of the effect to detect
Sample size needed versus size of effect to detect5001,0002,0005,00010,00040%60%80%100%80% power90% powersize of effect to detect, as % of the effect observed (log vertical scale: participants per arm)
Treat these figures cautiously. The observed difference is imprecise: its confidence interval includes no difference at all. A sample size built on a noisy estimate can be far too small or too large, so the smaller-effect rows are the more cautious guide.
Method and assumptions. Two-sided α = 0.05, 1:1 allocation, two-sample comparison of means with the pooled standard deviation. Calculated for the comparison: GXR and Stimulant.

The sample-size figures are planning illustrations based on the observed effect, not the trial’s original design justification. They give participants per arm for the listed power targets. They are not totals of events: the outcomes in this record are continuous, and the displayed quantities refer to participants per arm. The planning assumptions are a two-sided significance level of 0.05, equal allocation between the two arms, and a normal approximation. The effect to detect is the stated fraction of the observed effect.

The 80% power column describes the number of participants per arm in a hypothetical study intended to have an 80% chance of detecting the specified effect under those planning assumptions, if that effect and the assumptions were correct. The 90% power column uses a higher target chance of detection and consequently requires more participants per arm for the same specified effect. These are design calculations, not a summary of what happened in this trial; they are not observed power.

The rows that plan for 100%, 75%, and 50% of the observed effect illustrate how the assumed target effect changes the required sample size. A smaller effect is harder to distinguish from random variation, so the planning calculation requires more participants per arm to target the same power. The numbers can be useful for understanding the scale of a future study under the stated assumptions, but they inherit uncertainty from the observed effect used as their starting point.

The trial’s own sample-size assumptions and original justification are not reported in the registry record. These planning illustrations should therefore not be read as evidence that the completed study was designed for a particular power target, nor as proof that the study was adequately or inadequately sized.

13. How the Sample Size Is Derived

Power is the probability that a study of a given size rejects the null hypothesis when a specific true effect exists. It depends on four things: the effect to detect, the variability of the outcome, the significance level (here a two-sided α of 0.05, so z1−α/2 = 1.960) and the desired power (z1−β = 0.842 for 80% and 1.282 for 90%).

Formula

n = 2 (z1−α/2 + z1−β)2 σ2 / Δ2

n is the number of participants in each arm, Δ is the difference in means to detect and σ is the common standard deviation.

Worked calculation for this trial

  1. Observed difference Δ = -1.600; pooled standard deviation σ = 10.302.
  2. n = 2 × (1.96 + 0.842)2 × 10.3022 / -1.6002 = 650.8, rounded up to 651 participants per arm for 80% power.

The smaller-effect rows in the table above repeat the same calculation with the effect multiplied by 0.75 and 0.5 (for ratios, applied to the logarithm of the ratio).

R code

alpha <- 0.05
z_a   <- qnorm(1 - alpha / 2)          # two-sided
delta <- -1.6                      # observed difference in means
sigma <- 10.3018504444903                     # pooled standard deviation
n_per_arm <- function(power, frac = 1) {
  ceiling(round(2 * (z_a + qnorm(power))^2 * sigma^2 / (delta * frac)^2, 6))
}
for (f in c(1, 0.75, 0.5))
  cat(sprintf("%3.0f%% of observed effect: n per arm = %s (80%% power), %s (90%% power)\n", 100 * f,
              format(n_per_arm(0.80, f), big.mark = ","), format(n_per_arm(0.90, f), big.mark = ",")))

# Check against R's built-in function (t-based, so very slightly larger)
cat("power.t.test:", round(power.t.test(delta = delta, sd = sigma, power = 0.80)$n, 1), "\n")

# Simulation: exact two-sample t-test using simulated means and variances
set.seed(1985581)
n    <- n_per_arm(0.80)
reps <- 20000
m_diff <- rnorm(reps, delta, sigma * sqrt(2 / n))             # difference in sample means
s2     <- sigma^2 * rchisq(reps, 2 * (n - 1)) / (2 * (n - 1))   # pooled sample variance
tstat  <- m_diff / sqrt(s2 * 2 / n)
cat(sprintf("Simulated power at n = %s per arm: %.3f (%d replicates)\n", format(n, big.mark = ","), mean(abs(tstat) > qt(0.975, 2 * (n - 1))), reps))

Output from running the code

100% of observed effect: n per arm = 651 (80% power), 872 (90% power)
 75% of observed effect: n per arm = 1,157 (80% power), 1,549 (90% power)
 50% of observed effect: n per arm = 2,604 (80% power), 3,485 (90% power)
power.t.test: 651.7 
Simulated power at n = 651 per arm: 0.798 (20000 replicates)

The simulation draws many sets of group means and variances at the planned sample size and counts how often the two-sample t-test rejects the null. It should land close to the target power; at very small required sample sizes it can fall below it, because the normal approximation is rough there.

14. Analyses Reported by the Sponsor

MethodEstimate95% CIP-value
ANOVALS mean difference -3.0-5.9 to -0.20.039
Where the two analyses differ, rely on the sponsor's. The simple re-calculation above reaches a different conclusion from the sponsor's analysis, usually because the sponsor adjusts for covariates, stratification or repeated measures, or (for event rates) uses a negative binomial model that allows for over-dispersion and so gives wider intervals.

The sponsor’s primary analysis is an ANOVA reporting an LS mean difference of -3.0, a 95% confidence interval from -5.9 to -0.2, and p = 0.039. The registry also permits an unadjusted recalculation from the posted means and standard errors: that estimate is -1.6, with a 95% confidence interval from -5.745 to 2.545 and p = 0.449. These results differ in estimate and in whether the interval includes zero.

The recalculation is a simple comparison of posted summary statistics. The sponsor result is model-based, and the registry record does not provide enough detail about the model or contrast to reproduce it. A crossover analysis may use information that is not represented in a simple arm-summary calculation, but the record does not establish which model features explain this discrepancy. It would be inappropriate to choose between the analyses by treating the recalculation as a replacement for the sponsor model.

Because the discrepancy is flagged, the sponsor’s own analysis takes precedence. That means the sponsor-reported estimate is the primary inferential result to emphasize, while the recalculation is useful as a check showing that a simple unadjusted analysis leads to a different conclusion. The available record does not resolve why they differ, so readers should keep the analysis method attached to each estimate rather than presenting either as a universal summary of the primary outcome.

15. Multiplicity, Missing Data and Analysis Populations

The registry identifies one primary outcome and six secondary outcomes. Testing multiple outcomes raises a general statistical concern: when each is assessed separately, the chance of obtaining at least one apparently notable result can rise. This is why confirmatory trials may define a multiplicity strategy, such as a hierarchy or adjustment to the testing thresholds. The registry record does not report a multiplicity adjustment or a testing hierarchy. Accordingly, secondary p-values should be read as unadjusted unless the record states otherwise, and they carry less weight as confirmatory findings.

The registry record also does not report a full statistical analysis plan, the original sample-size justification, or whether interim analyses were conducted. The analysis population for the primary endpoint is described as participants who took at least one dose and completed at least one non-baseline BRIEF questionnaire during either period. That is the posted population definition; the record does not provide enough detail to determine how every randomized participant was handled across all outcomes and periods.

Missing data can affect both the estimated treatment difference and its precision, particularly in a crossover study where observations may be incomplete for one period or one treatment. The registry record does not report reasons for missing outcome data, the number missing by sequence or period, or the method used to address missing observations. It also does not state whether sensitivity analyses were conducted. These omissions limit assessment of whether missingness could have influenced the reported results.

The study’s crossover structure makes the analysis plan especially relevant because treatment, period, sequence, and within-participant relationships can be important to interpretation. The record reports an ANOVA and LS mean differences but does not describe its terms or explain how these design features were handled. This does not show that the analysis was inappropriate; it means that the posted information is insufficient to evaluate those details fully.

16. Safety Results

The registry reports serious adverse events as affected participants divided by participants at risk.

ArmParticipants with serious adverse eventsParticipants at riskPercentage
Stimulant and GXR0470.0%
Stimulant and PLB0480.0%

Other (non-serious) adverse events

Participants with at least one non-serious event at or above the registry's 5% reporting threshold.

ArmParticipants affected of at risk
Stimulant and GXR41 of 47
Stimulant and PLB41 of 48

Most frequent non-serious adverse event terms

Event termOrgan systemStimulant and GXRStimulant and PLB
HeadacheNervous system disorders23 of 4716 of 48
Upper Respiratory Tract InfectionRespiratory, thoracic and mediastinal disorders12 of 4718 of 48
Abdominal Upper PainGastrointestinal disorders14 of 475 of 48
InsomniaNervous system disorders5 of 479 of 48
VomitingGastrointestinal disorders5 of 478 of 48
FatigueNervous system disorders11 of 471 of 48
GastroenteritisGastrointestinal disorders6 of 475 of 48
Affect LabilityPsychiatric disorders6 of 471 of 48
SomnolenceNervous system disorders5 of 472 of 48
PyrexiaGeneral disorders3 of 473 of 48
Do not overextend the safety comparison. Serious-adverse-event counts are safety observations, not efficacy outcomes, and should not be combined with the primary result into a single benefit-risk number.

The registry reports zero serious adverse events among 47 participants at risk in the stimulant-and-GXR condition and zero among 48 participants at risk in the stimulant-and-placebo condition. For other adverse events, 41 participants are reported as affected in each condition, with the corresponding at-risk counts of 47 and 48. These are counts of participants with events, not a description of how many separate events each participant experienced.

The record does not list serious adverse event terms, and no deaths figure is reported in the posted safety data. The zero serious-event counts describe the registry entry; they do not show that no other safety events occurred, since other adverse events are separately recorded. Nor do the counts alone establish that the conditions have identical safety profiles. The registry does not provide event-level timing, severity details for other adverse events, or a causal assessment for each event.

These safety summaries should be interpreted within the recorded numbers at risk and the trial’s follow-up structure. The registry record does not report a detailed safety analysis plan or enough information to make a broader comparative safety assessment from these counts alone.

17. What the Result Does, and Does Not, Mean

The posted primary outcome is a parent-rated questionnaire score reflecting everyday executive function at home. The sponsor-reported model estimates a difference between treatment conditions, while the simple recalculation from arm summaries yields a different estimate and a confidence interval that includes zero. Because the discrepancy is flagged, the sponsor’s analysis takes precedence. The results do not support treating the unadjusted calculation as a substitute for that model, and the registry record does not explain the difference in enough detail to reconcile it.

The BRIEF-parent score direction is important: higher scores indicate worsening function, and a score less than 65 is described as within the normal range. The posted outcome is change from baseline, not a report of absolute score levels. No clinically important difference threshold is given in the registry record. Therefore, neither statistical significance in the sponsor model nor the direction of a mean change alone establishes the practical importance of the estimated difference.

The secondary results assess other outcomes, including ADHD symptoms and quality of life, but they are not equivalent to the primary endpoint and do not resolve its analysis discrepancy. Their unadjusted status and the number of outcomes assessed limit how strongly they can be treated as confirmatory. The safety counts likewise describe recorded events without establishing causation or a comprehensive comparative safety profile.

These findings are specific to the population, treatment conditions, measures, and analyses recorded for this trial. They do not establish what would happen in other populations or settings, and they are not a basis for individual treatment decisions. The registry record does not provide a complete analysis plan, missing-data account, or full crossover model description, all of which would help readers assess the limits of the reported comparisons.

18. Why This Trial Matters Statistically

This trial illustrates why the analysis method matters as much as the point estimate. A simple recalculation from posted means and standard errors gives a primary result with a confidence interval that includes zero, while the sponsor-reported ANOVA gives a different estimate and an interval that excludes zero. The discrepancy is material to statistical interpretation. Keeping the methods attached to their estimates prevents a recalculation from being mistaken for the sponsor’s analysis or vice versa.

The crossover design is also statistically important. In general, crossover trials can use within-participant comparisons, but those comparisons require attention to period, sequence, and possible carryover effects. The registry record identifies the design and reports an ANOVA, yet does not give enough detail to assess how those features were modeled. The limitation is not merely technical: without those details, the sponsor estimate cannot be fully reconstructed from the registry description.

The record also distinguishes a statistically notable model result from evidence of practical importance. No threshold for a clinically important BRIEF-parent change is reported, and the endpoint is a parent questionnaire rather than a direct measure of all aspects of functioning. Finally, the secondary outcomes and safety counts broaden the set of questions considered, but their interpretation depends on multiplicity, missing-data reporting, and the analysis population. This trial is therefore a useful example of reading estimates alongside design, model, precision, and reporting limitations.

19. Limitations

The registry record provides limited detail about the crossover implementation and analysis. It does not report a washout period, period or sequence effects, carryover assessment, or the full ANOVA specification. These details would help determine how the treatment contrast was estimated and whether the sponsor analysis can be independently reproduced. The record also does not report the original sample-size justification or the statistical analysis plan.

The primary outcome is parent-reported, and the posted result concerns change in a questionnaire score. Although the registry describes the scale direction and a score threshold for the normal range, it does not report a clinically important difference threshold or absolute baseline and end-of-period scores. The practical meaning of the estimated change is therefore difficult to establish from the posted summaries alone.

The primary analysis and unadjusted recalculation differ, and the registry does not explain the source of that discrepancy. The sponsor analysis takes precedence, but the missing model details limit independent appraisal. The record also does not explain missing outcome data, provide counts by period or sequence for all measures, or describe sensitivity analyses. These gaps matter in a crossover study because incomplete observations can affect the within-participant comparison.

Finally, the registry lists six secondary outcomes, but numerical summaries are not posted for all of them, and no multiplicity adjustment is reported. The safety information is limited to participant counts for serious and other adverse events; event details and a deaths figure are not reported in the posted safety data. These limitations constrain the breadth and certainty of conclusions that can be drawn from the registry record.

20. Related Tutorials

21. Related Statistical Calculators

22. Sources

Continue through the Clinical Biostats statistical pathway

Use this trial's endpoint as a starting point for deeper study of effect measures, confidence intervals, and sample-size planning.

23. Record Summary

NCT01985581 is a completed randomized, quadruple-masked, single-center Phase 4 crossover trial with recorded enrollment of 50. Children with ADHD continued stable stimulant therapy and received adjunctive GXR and placebo in separate 12-week periods. The primary outcome was change from baseline in parent-rated BRIEF executive-function score.

The sponsor-reported ANOVA estimated an LS mean difference of -3.0, with a 95% confidence interval from -5.9 to -0.2 and p = 0.039. The unadjusted recalculation differs, with an estimate of -1.6, a 95% confidence interval from -5.745 to 2.545, and p = 0.449. The sponsor analysis takes precedence because the discrepancy is flagged. The record does not report enough detail to reconcile the analyses or fully assess missing data, multiplicity, and crossover-model assumptions.

Clinical Biostats