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Tobacco Smoking NA Continuous Endpoint NCT06191419

Human Perception of Odors and Odor Blockers: Complete Statistical Analysis

This analysis examines a completed, single-group study of odor perception and cigarette-related measures among participants who smoke. The registry record describes the study design and primary measure but does not report numerical outcome results.

Trial start: 2024-04-05  ·  Enrollment: 27  ·  Sponsor: Tim McClintock
Scope of this record

This page provides an independent statistical analysis and educational interpretation of publicly reported results. ClinicalTrials.gov provides the official trial registry record. Numerical trial results on this page are restricted to the results posted in the ClinicalTrials.gov record; calculations added by Clinical Biostats are labelled as such.

1. Trial at a Glance

This page covers the registry results for Human Perception of Odors and Odor Blockers (NCT06191419), a na na study. The primary outcome is Cigarette Purchase Task.

27
Enrollment
NA
n/a
Arms
In the primary outcome
n/a
Effect
No re-analysis shown
n/a
95% CI
See limitations
FeatureRegistry value
ClinicalTrials.gov identifierNCT06191419
PhaseNA
ConditionTobacco Smoking, Smoking Behaviors
AllocationNot applicable (single group)
Design modelSingle Group
MaskingNone (open label)
Enrollment27
Arms in the primary outcomen/a
Lead sponsorTim McClintock
Results postedYes

2. Clinical Question

Population

The registry record describes participants who smoke. The registered enrollment is 27. The record does not report further eligibility details or characteristics of the enrolled participants.

Intervention

Participants were asked to smell odor samples, including blocking odors and cigarette smoke mixed with blocking or irrelevant odors, and to report on odor pleasantness and desire to smoke. The registered intervention is named Odorants.

Comparator

This is a single-group study, not a randomized comparison. The described samples include controls such as clean air and irrelevant odor, but these are sample conditions within the study, not separately randomized trial arms.

Primary question

The study asks whether odor blockers can suppress the perceived intensity of key cigarette-smoke odorants in a way that reduces the ability of cigarette-smoke odor to increase the urge to smoke. The primary registered measure is the Cigarette Purchase Task, which records willingness to spend for a cigarette.

The registry frames the broader aim as determining whether blockers of cigarette-smoke odor perception have utility in smoking cessation. Participants were to smell up to 20 odor samples per session and report odor pleasantness and desire to smoke. These tasks examine responses to odor conditions; they do not, by themselves, establish whether a blocker changes smoking behavior over time or supports cessation.

The distinction between the stated research question and the registered primary measure matters. The question focuses on perceived odor intensity and urge to smoke, while the primary endpoint is a purchase-task measure. Odor pleasantness is listed as a secondary outcome. Numerical results for these measures are not reported in the registry record, so the record does not show the observed pattern of responses or quantify how closely the primary endpoint addresses the stated question.

3. Trial Design

The registry record identifies this as a completed, single-group study with an enrollment of 27. Allocation is listed as NA and masking as NONE. The study is therefore not a randomized, masked, between-arm comparison. Its design description concerns participants who smoke smelling odor samples and reporting their responses.

The described samples include clean air, an irrelevant odor, blocking odors, cigarette smoke, and cigarette smoke combined with blocking odors or irrelevant odors. These sample types provide different odor experiences within the study task. The record does not describe a separate randomized control arm, and the listed sample conditions should not be interpreted as independently assigned trial groups.

The registered intervention is Odorants, classified as OTHER. Participants were asked to smell up to 20 samples per session. The registry does not report the number of sessions each participant completed, the order in which samples were presented, or whether presentation order was randomized. It also does not report details about participant instructions beyond smelling samples and reporting on pleasantness and desire to smoke.

The study is marked COMPLETED, with a primary completion date of 2025-05-15 and a start date of 2024-04-05. Those status and date fields describe the registry record; they do not establish how many participants completed every task or contributed data to each outcome. The registered enrollment is 27, but the number analyzed for each measure is not reported in the registry record.

Because there is no randomized comparison, any observed response differences among odor samples would need to be interpreted as within-study contrasts rather than evidence from a like-for-like comparison of treatment arms. The registry record does not report outcome estimates or analyses that would show the size or precision of any such contrasts. It also does not report a protocol-level account of the statistical analysis plan or sample-size justification.

4. Participant Flow and Accounting

The registry reports how participants moved through each stage of the study. All counts below are exactly as posted; missing counts are not inferred from other stages.

Before assignment: All participants assessed for eligibility were enrolled and started the study procedures.

Overall Study

StageParticipants That Smoke
STARTED27
Assessed for Eligibility27
Cigarette Smoke Alone27
Cigarette Smoke and Citronella Methyl 2 Methylbutyrate27
Cigarette Smoke and Lemon Oil27
Cigarette Smoke and Pentanethiol27
Cigarette Smoke and Mineral Oil27
COMPLETED22
NOT COMPLETED5

5. Baseline Characteristics

The table reproduces the baseline characteristics posted in the registry, which describe the participants analysed at baseline and help show whether the randomized groups were comparable.

CharacteristicUnitParticipants That Smoke
Participants analysed27
Age, Categorical: <=18 yearsParticipants0
Age, Categorical: Between 18 and 65 yearsParticipants27
Age, Categorical: >=65 yearsParticipants0
Sex: Female, Male: FemaleParticipants18
Sex: Female, Male: MaleParticipants9
Ethnicity (NIH/OMB): Hispanic or LatinoParticipants4
Ethnicity (NIH/OMB): Not Hispanic or LatinoParticipants23
Ethnicity (NIH/OMB): Unknown or Not ReportedParticipants0
Race (NIH/OMB): American Indian or Alaska NativeParticipants0
Race (NIH/OMB): AsianParticipants0
Race (NIH/OMB): Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific IslanderParticipants0
Race (NIH/OMB): Black or African AmericanParticipants3
Race (NIH/OMB): WhiteParticipants24
Race (NIH/OMB): More than one raceParticipants0
Race (NIH/OMB): Unknown or Not ReportedParticipants0
Region of Enrollment: United Statesparticipants27

6. Primary Endpoint

The registry lists the primary outcome as Cigarette Purchase Task, measured over 3 hours (total for all outcome measures).

ElementRegistry entry
Result typeMean
Measure of spreadStandard Deviation
UnitLog (US Dollars)
Endpoint classificationContinuous Endpoint

The primary endpoint is the Cigarette Purchase Task, measured as a mean on a log (US Dollars) scale, with standard deviation as the registered measure of dispersion. In the task, a smoker selects how much they are willing to spend for a single cigarette of their preferred brand from 19 listed amounts ranging from $0.00 (free) to $1,120. The measure is the breakpoint at which the participant is no longer willing to purchase.

A purchase task is used to characterize stated demand for a cigarette under the task’s hypothetical price choices. A breakpoint condenses a sequence of choices into a point where willingness to purchase stops. It is a behavioral measure within the task, not a direct count of cigarettes smoked, a record of actual purchases, or a measure of cessation.

The registry describes the task data as skewed and says they are log transformed after adding 0.01 for statistical analysis. A log transformation can make a strongly right-skewed distribution more suitable for some statistical summaries and models. The registered endpoint is therefore on a transformed scale; its mean is not directly a mean amount of money spent in ordinary US dollars.

The timeframe is 3 hours (total for all outcome measures). The registry does not report numerical endpoint results, a confidence interval, or an analysis estimate. Thus, the endpoint’s definition and scale are available, but the observed mean and its precision are not reported in the registry record.

7. Why No Re-analysis Is Shown

Reported as posted, not recalculated. Not a randomized comparison (allocation: NA); arms are not a like-for-like control comparison. A result is recalculated only when the posted data support a clean two-arm comparison, so no result is shown beyond what the sponsor posted.

8. Statistical Interpretation

Clinical Biostats interpretation

The registry record supplies design and endpoint descriptions but no numerical outcome estimates. It lists 3 outcome measures and 0 analyses. The primary Cigarette Purchase Task is described, and Odor Pleasantness Score is named as a secondary outcome, but numerical findings for these measures are not reported in the registry record. Without estimates, there is no basis in this record for describing the direction, size, or precision of a result.

The study’s research question concerns whether odor blockers can suppress perception of cigarette-smoke intensity in a way that reduces the ability of smoke odor to increase urge to smoke. The described task asks participants to smell samples and report responses, while the primary endpoint measures a purchase-task breakpoint. These are related to the study’s stated interest in smoking behavior, but the record does not report an estimate connecting odor condition to either the purchase-task measure or urge to smoke.

The single-group design also shapes what could be concluded from any observations. The sample conditions include controls and combinations of odors, but the registry does not list randomized arms. Comparisons among sample conditions, if analyzed, would not be equivalent to a randomized comparison between treatment groups. The record gives no analysis results with which to assess within-participant contrasts, order effects, or other possible influences on responses.

The continuous primary measure is reported on a log (US Dollars) scale, and the registry notes that the task data are skewed. A mean on a transformed scale summarizes the transformed values, not the typical amount a participant would spend in dollars. The standard deviation describes dispersion on the registered scale, but neither the mean nor standard deviation is reported numerically. It is therefore not possible to assess the observed variability or judge the precision of an estimate from the registry record.

The record does not report confidence intervals or p-values. In general, a confidence interval describes uncertainty around an estimate and a p-value addresses compatibility between data and a specified statistical model or null hypothesis. Neither can be interpreted without reported estimates and analysis details. The record also does not report the number of participants contributing data to each outcome, so the enrolled count cannot be treated as the analysis count.

A planning illustration is described as based on a fraction of the observed effect, with a two-sided significance level of 0.05, equal allocation between two arms, and a normal approximation. Such an illustration is not the study’s own design and does not make this single-group study a two-arm trial. Since the observed effect and the illustration’s numerical results are not reported in the registry record, the planning implications cannot be assessed. They should not be read as observed power or as evidence about the outcome.

Overall, the record supports a description of what was planned and how the primary endpoint was defined, but not an estimate of whether responses differed across odor conditions. The completed status does not substitute for results. Interpretation of the study’s findings requires outcome estimates, analysis methods, and participant counts that are not reported in the registry record.

9. Statistical Methods Explained

The registry identifies a continuous primary measure summarized as a mean, with standard deviation as its dispersion measure. It also describes the measure as log (US Dollars). These fields specify the intended scale and summary, but they do not provide a numerical estimate or a full account of the statistical methods used. No analyses are listed in the registry record.

What does a mean summarize?

For a continuous outcome, the mean is an average of the measured values on the scale being analyzed. It provides a measure of location, while the standard deviation describes how spread out values are around that mean. These summaries are most directly interpretable when the distribution is reasonably represented by its center and spread. If observations are strongly skewed, a small number of large values can influence the mean and standard deviation, and those summaries may not describe a typical participant’s response particularly well.

The registry specifically says Cigarette Purchase Task data are skewed. It also says the values are log transformed after adding 0.01 for statistical analysis. Log transformation changes the scale: equal differences on a log scale do not correspond to equal differences in dollars. A mean calculated after transformation is an average of transformed values, not the arithmetic average of the original spending amounts. The registry does not identify the logarithm base, so that detail is not reported in the registry record.

Why add a constant before transformation?

As a general statistical point, the logarithm of zero is undefined. A task that permits a free option can therefore create a zero amount, and adding a constant before taking a logarithm is one approach to making zero-valued observations transformable. The record specifies that 0.01 is added, but it does not provide a fuller justification for that choice. The constant affects the transformed values, especially values near zero, so the result should be interpreted on the stated transformed scale rather than casually translated into ordinary dollar amounts.

What does the standard deviation tell the reader?

The standard deviation is a measure of dispersion, not an estimate of uncertainty in the mean. It describes variation among observations on the scale used for analysis. A confidence interval for a mean, by contrast, would quantify uncertainty around the estimated mean under the analysis assumptions. The registry gives the dispersion measure planned for the endpoint, but it reports neither a numerical standard deviation nor a confidence interval. The amount of variability and the precision of the primary estimate therefore cannot be evaluated from the record.

What would a comparison mean in a single-group study?

The study is listed as SINGLE GROUP, with allocation NA and masking NONE. Its odor samples include controls and odor combinations, but these are not registered as separate randomized arms. In general, a comparison of repeated responses to different samples can describe how responses vary across those conditions. It does not automatically support the same interpretation as a randomized treatment-control contrast. The registry does not report how samples were ordered or assigned, or the methods used to account for repeated observations from the same participant.

Repeated observations from a participant tend to be related rather than independent. General statistical methods for repeated measurements account for this dependence when estimating uncertainty. Treating each response as unrelated could understate or otherwise misstate uncertainty. The registry record does not describe the unit of analysis, a repeated-measures model, or another method for handling within-participant dependence. These details are not reported in the registry record.

Why does over-dispersion matter?

In general, over-dispersion means that observed variability is greater than a statistical model assumes. When the model understates variability, standard errors and confidence intervals may be too narrow, and significance tests may be poorly calibrated. The registry does not state that an over-dispersion adjustment was used, and the primary endpoint is described as a transformed continuous outcome rather than a count outcome. The broader point is that uncertainty calculations depend on whether the model represents the observed spread and dependence adequately.

The registry describes a planning illustration based on an observed effect fraction, a two-sided significance level of 0.05, equal allocation between two arms, and a normal approximation. This is a planning convention, not a description of the registered single-group design. Planning sample sizes are hypothetical estimates of the participants needed under stated assumptions; they are not observed results, and they are not observed power. The registry’s effect estimate and numerical planning outputs are not reported in the registry record, so the illustration cannot be checked or interpreted as a design justification.

In short, the endpoint definition identifies a transformed continuous measure and its intended descriptive summaries. The record does not provide the observed values, a model specification, an uncertainty estimate, or sufficient analysis detail to assess assumptions. Those omissions limit statistical interpretation even though the outcome’s task and scale are described.

10. Multiplicity, Missing Data and Analysis Populations

The registry lists 3 outcome measures and 0 analyses. It names the Cigarette Purchase Task as the primary outcome and Odor Pleasantness Score as a secondary outcome. Numerical results and analysis details are not reported in the registry record. The record does not describe a multiplicity adjustment, a hierarchy among outcome tests, or which outcomes were included in any statistical testing. Therefore, the potential effect of examining multiple outcomes cannot be assessed.

Multiplicity is a general concern when several outcomes or comparisons are examined: the more opportunities to identify a nominally notable result, the greater the chance that some apparent finding arises by chance. Methods such as prespecifying a primary endpoint or adjusting inference can address particular multiplicity concerns, but the registry record does not establish whether such methods were planned or applied. The listed primary and secondary outcomes alone do not establish the full analysis plan.

The record also does not report how missing observations were handled, how many participants contributed data to each outcome, or whether any participants were excluded from an analysis. Enrollment is 27, but enrollment is not the same as the analysis population. There is no information about incomplete sessions, missing task responses, or reasons for missing data. It would be inappropriate to assume that all enrolled participants completed every measure or that missingness had no effect.

Analysis populations are not described. The record does not report whether analyses included all enrolled participants, only participants with usable measurements, or another defined group. It also does not provide participant flow or outcome-specific denominators. These omissions prevent readers from checking how the analyzed participants relate to the registered enrollment and from assessing whether results may be sensitive to missing-data decisions.

11. Safety Results

The registry reports serious adverse events as affected participants divided by participants at risk.

ArmParticipants with serious adverse eventsParticipants at riskPercentage
Participants That Smoke0270.0%

Deaths

ArmDeaths (participants affected of at risk)
Participants That Smoke0 of 27

Other (non-serious) adverse events

Participants with at least one non-serious event at or above the registry's 0% reporting threshold.

ArmParticipants affected of at risk
Participants That Smoke0 of 27
Do not overextend the safety comparison. Serious-adverse-event counts are safety observations, not efficacy outcomes, and should not be combined with the primary result into a single benefit-risk number.

The registry safety fields report that 27 participants were at risk for serious adverse events and 0 were affected. For other adverse events, 27 were at risk and 0 were affected. Deaths are reported as 0. No top serious adverse-event terms are listed.

These figures describe the adverse-event counts recorded in the registry for the listed group, Participants That Smoke. They do not show that every possible adverse event was measured, nor do they establish the completeness of event reporting. The registry record does not describe event definitions, monitoring procedures, the observation period for safety, or whether events were judged related to the odor samples.

A count of zero means that no events in that category are reported in this record; it does not prove that the risk is absent. The number at risk is the reported safety denominator, not necessarily the number with complete data for every outcome. The safety counts should be read as registry-recorded events for this study, rather than as a comparison of safety between randomized groups, because the design is single-group.

12. What the Result Does, and Does Not, Mean

The registry record establishes that a completed, single-group study of odor perception and cigarette-related measures was registered, with an enrollment of 27. It describes odor samples, participant reports about pleasantness and desire to smoke, and a primary Cigarette Purchase Task endpoint. It also gives the endpoint’s transformed scale and the intended mean and standard deviation summaries.

Those details do not reveal whether odor blockers changed perceived intensity, desire to smoke, or purchase-task responses. Numerical outcome results are not reported in the registry record, so the direction and magnitude of any observed response are unknown from this record. No confidence interval, p-value, or analysis estimate is available to describe precision or statistical compatibility.

The study’s stated interest in possible relevance to smoking cessation should not be confused with a direct test of cessation. The described tasks capture responses to odor samples and willingness to spend for a cigarette in a purchase task. The registry does not report a cessation outcome, changes in smoking over time, or actual cigarette purchasing behavior. The task measure is not itself evidence about whether participants stopped smoking.

The design also limits the kind of comparison represented. This is not a randomized comparison between treatment arms, and the sample conditions are described within a single-group study. Any response contrasts would need interpretation in light of that design and the unreported details about sample ordering and analysis. The completion status indicates the study is marked completed, but it does not supply the missing results.

The appropriate conclusion is therefore narrow: the registry documents the research question, study structure, endpoint definition, and safety counts, but does not report findings that answer the primary question. Neither benefit nor lack of benefit can be inferred from the absence of numerical outcome results.

13. Why This Trial Matters Statistically

This study is statistically interesting because its scientific question concerns responses to odor conditions, while its primary endpoint is a purchase-task breakpoint. That makes it important to distinguish what the study measures directly from the broader behavioral question it seeks to inform. Odor pleasantness is listed as a secondary outcome, and the description also mentions reports of desire to smoke, but numerical results are not reported in the registry record.

The endpoint’s transformation is another important interpretive feature. The registry notes skewed task data and specifies a log transformation after adding 0.01. Analysis on a transformed scale may be suitable for data with a skewed distribution, but a mean on that scale is not the same as a mean dollar amount. Clear reporting of the scale, effect estimate, and uncertainty would be needed for readers to understand the result.

The single-group structure also calls for care. Odor controls and mixtures can be part of a structured task without constituting randomized treatment arms. Statistical interpretation depends on how conditions were presented and how repeated responses from a participant were handled. Those details are not reported in the registry record.

Finally, the record illustrates the difference between registration and results reporting. It identifies a completed study, the registered enrollment, and a primary outcome, but it lists no analyses and provides no numerical outcome estimates. Without those results and analysis details, readers cannot judge effect size, precision, or the relationship between the primary measure and the stated question. The study’s statistical relevance lies partly in making these distinctions explicit.

14. Limitations

The main limitation for interpreting this trial from the registry record is the absence of numerical outcome results. Although the study is marked completed and the primary endpoint is defined, the record does not report an endpoint estimate, dispersion value, confidence interval, or p-value. It is therefore not possible to characterize the observed responses or their precision.

The single-group design is another limitation for causal interpretation. The registry lists no randomized allocation and describes multiple odor sample types within the study, not separate randomized arms. The record does not explain sample ordering, assignment, or control of possible order effects. The odor conditions therefore cannot be treated as randomized trial groups on the basis of the registry description.

Some essential analysis details are also absent. The record does not report the statistical model, how repeated responses were handled, the logarithm base, or whether assumptions were assessed. It does not report participant flow, outcome-specific analysis counts, missing-data methods, or the analysis populations. These gaps make it difficult to assess the robustness or reproducibility of any outcome analysis.

The primary measure is a log-transformed purchase-task breakpoint, not a direct measure of actual purchasing or cessation. Although the study’s stated motivation concerns smoking cessation, the registry does not report a cessation outcome or a follow-up measure of smoking behavior. The extent to which the primary endpoint captures the broader research question cannot be established from the record alone.

Finally, the record does not provide a protocol-level sample-size justification or a detailed statistical plan. A planning illustration is described, but the observed effect and numerical planning outputs are not reported in the registry record. The illustration therefore cannot be used to evaluate whether enrollment was adequate for the study’s intended comparisons.

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18. Record Summary

The registry record identifies NCT06191419 as a completed, single-group study titled Human Perception of Odors and Odor Blockers. The registered enrollment is 27, allocation is listed as NA, and masking is listed as NONE. Participants who smoke were asked to smell odor samples and report on odor pleasantness and desire to smoke.

The primary outcome is the Cigarette Purchase Task, summarized as a mean on a log (US Dollars) scale with standard deviation. The registry describes skewed task data and a transformation after adding 0.01. Odor Pleasantness Score is listed as a secondary outcome. The timeframe is 3 hours (total for all outcome measures).

The record lists 3 outcome measures and 0 analyses. Numerical outcome results, analysis details, missing-data handling, and outcome-specific participant counts are not reported in the registry record. Safety fields report 0 serious adverse events, 0 other adverse events, and 0 deaths among the listed group.

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