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Squamous Lntraepithelial Lesions of Vulva Phase 2 Binary Endpoint NCT03937791

Immunotherapy With E7 T Cell Receptor T Cells for Vulvar High-Grade Squamous Intraepithelial Lesions: Complete Statistical Analysis

This analysis concerns a terminated, single-group phase II study of E7 T-cell receptor T cells for vulvar high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions. The registry record reports enrollment of 1 participant but does not report the primary response result or an analysis.

Trial start: 2019-10-09  ·  Enrollment: 1  ·  Sponsor: National Cancer Institute (NCI)
Scope of this record

This page provides an independent statistical analysis and educational interpretation of publicly reported results. ClinicalTrials.gov provides the official trial registry record. Numerical trial results on this page are restricted to the results posted in the ClinicalTrials.gov record; calculations added by Clinical Biostats are labelled as such.

1. Trial at a Glance

This page covers the registry results for Immunotherapy With E7 T Cell Receptor T Cells for Vulvar High-Grade Squamous Intraepithelial Lesions (NCT03937791), a na phase 2 study. The primary outcome is Fraction of Participants With Vulvar High-Grade Squamous Intraepithelial Lesions (HSIL) Who Experience a Complete Response for E7 T-Cell Receptor (TCR) T Cells Treatment.

1
Enrollment
Phase 2
n/a
Arms
In the primary outcome
n/a
Effect
No re-analysis shown
n/a
95% CI
See limitations
FeatureRegistry value
ClinicalTrials.gov identifierNCT03937791
PhasePhase 2
ConditionSquamous Lntraepithelial Lesions of Vulva, Neoplasms, Squamous Cell, Vulvar HSIL
AllocationNot applicable (single group)
Design modelSingle Group
MaskingNone (open label)
Enrollment1
Arms in the primary outcomen/a
Lead sponsorNational Cancer Institute (NCI)
Results postedYes

2. Clinical Question

Population

Adults with vulvar high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (HSIL) that could not be removed with surgery, or for which surgery had failed. The registry record reports enrollment of 1 participant.

Intervention

E7 T-cell receptor (TCR) T cells. The listed arm describes intravenous administration of 1x10^11 cells over 20 to 30 minutes on day 0.

Comparator

There was no comparison group. The registry record describes a single-group study with no masking and no allocation to different treatments.

Primary question

What proportion of participants experienced a complete response by 3 months? Complete response was defined as disappearance of all target lesions with no new lesions appearing.

The registry record describes a phase II study of an immune-cell treatment for vulvar HSIL. Its background states that human papillomavirus can cause vulvar HSIL and that the lesions can sometimes become cancer. The stated objective was to test whether a personalized immune treatment could cure vulvar HSIL. The primary endpoint, however, was a complete response at 3 months, defined by lesion status rather than by a broader measure of cure.

The intended population was adults with HSIL that could not be removed surgically or for which surgery had failed. The record gives no further details about participant characteristics, such as the disease extent or prior treatments actually represented among enrolled participants. Those details are not reported in the registry record.

This was not a randomized comparison. Without a control group, the study cannot estimate how outcomes under this treatment compare with outcomes under another treatment or with no study treatment. The registry record also reports no masking. The clinical question is therefore limited to the response proportion observed in the treated group, if a response result is available. The primary response result is not reported in the registry record, so the recorded information does not answer that question.

3. Trial Design

This was a phase II, single-group study of E7 TCR T cells for vulvar HSIL. The registry record lists the study as terminated and reports enrollment of 1 participant. It gives a start date of 2019-10-09 and a primary completion date of 2020-06-22. The reason for termination is not reported in the registry record.

The listed intervention was E7 TCR T cells. The arm description states that 1x10^11 cells were to be administered intravenously over 20 to 30 minutes on day 0. The study summary describes screening, a baseline visit, and leukapheresis to collect white blood cells for growing treatment cells. It also describes hospital recovery after treatment, blood tests, supportive medications, and follow-up visits. These are descriptions of the study plan; the registry record does not establish which of these activities were completed by the enrolled participant.

The summary says participants might receive one more treatment and that follow-up would include 5 visits in the first 3 months after treatment, with additional visits possible if disease was growing. The registry record does not report whether a second treatment or all planned follow-up visits occurred. It also does not report the actual treatment date or the duration of follow-up for the enrolled participant.

Allocation is listed as not applicable, consistent with a single group rather than an assigned treatment comparison. Masking is listed as none. There was no concurrent control group in the registry design, so outcomes cannot be interpreted as a direct comparison between interventions. Details such as a protocol-defined analysis population, sample-size justification, interim analyses, and the statistical analysis plan are not reported in the registry record. The enrollment of 1 participant is the recorded enrollment, not evidence that the intended study size or follow-up plan was completed.

4. Participant Flow and Accounting

The registry reports how participants moved through each stage of the study. All counts below are exactly as posted; missing counts are not inferred from other stages.

Overall Study

StageArm 1/1x10^11 E7 T Cell Receptor (TCR) T Cells
STARTED1
COMPLETED1
NOT COMPLETED0

5. Baseline Characteristics

The table reproduces the baseline characteristics posted in the registry, which describe the participants analysed at baseline and help show whether the randomized groups were comparable.

CharacteristicUnitArm 1/1x10^11 E7 T Cell Receptor (TCR) T Cells
Participants analysed1
Age, Categorical: <=18 yearsParticipants0
Age, Categorical: Between 18 and 65 yearsParticipants1
Age, Categorical: >=65 yearsParticipants0
Age, Continuousyears59.2 (SD 0)
Sex: Female, Male: FemaleParticipants1
Sex: Female, Male: MaleParticipants0
Ethnicity (NIH/OMB): Hispanic or LatinoParticipants0
Ethnicity (NIH/OMB): Not Hispanic or LatinoParticipants1
Ethnicity (NIH/OMB): Unknown or Not ReportedParticipants0
Race (NIH/OMB): American Indian or Alaska NativeParticipants0
Race (NIH/OMB): AsianParticipants0
Race (NIH/OMB): Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific IslanderParticipants0
Race (NIH/OMB): Black or African AmericanParticipants0
Race (NIH/OMB): WhiteParticipants1
Race (NIH/OMB): More than one raceParticipants0
Race (NIH/OMB): Unknown or Not ReportedParticipants0
Region of Enrollment: United Statesparticipants1

6. Primary Endpoint

The registry lists the primary outcome as Fraction of Participants With Vulvar High-Grade Squamous Intraepithelial Lesions (HSIL) Who Experience a Complete Response for E7 T-Cell Receptor (TCR) T Cells Treatment, measured over 3 months.

ElementRegistry entry
Result typeNumber
Measure of spread95% Confidence Interval
UnitProportion of participants
Endpoint classificationBinary Endpoint

The primary endpoint was the fraction of participants with vulvar HSIL who experienced a complete response following E7 TCR T-cell treatment. The assessment timeframe was 3 months. A complete response was defined as disappearance of all target lesions and no appearance of new lesions. This is a binary outcome for each participant: the response definition is either met or not met at the specified assessment.

A lesion-based endpoint is relevant to a study intended to assess treatment response in HSIL because it describes whether the lesions targeted for assessment remain present and whether new lesions have appeared. A prespecified time point also makes clear when response is to be assessed. The registry record specifies a 95% confidence interval as the dispersion measure for the response fraction. A confidence interval communicates uncertainty around an estimated proportion; it does not by itself establish whether a treatment caused the observed outcome.

The endpoint is narrower than the stated objective of testing whether treatment could cure HSIL. A complete response at 3 months records lesion status at that assessment, but the registry definition does not establish the durability of response or address outcomes beyond that timeframe. The primary response estimate and its confidence interval are not reported in the registry record. With enrollment of 1 participant and no posted primary analysis, the endpoint cannot be evaluated from the recorded results.

7. Why No Re-analysis Is Shown

Reported as posted, not recalculated. Not a randomized comparison (allocation: NA); arms are not a like-for-like control comparison. A result is recalculated only when the posted data support a clean two-arm comparison, so no result is shown beyond what the sponsor posted.

8. Statistical Interpretation

Clinical Biostats interpretation

The registry record identifies a clinically focused question: whether participants with vulvar HSIL experience a complete response by 3 months after E7 TCR T-cell treatment. It reports enrollment of 1 participant, but it does not report the primary response count, estimated fraction, or confidence interval. The registry record lists 3 outcome measures and 0 analyses. Consequently, there is no posted primary outcome estimate to interpret and no basis in the registry record for saying whether the response criterion was met.

Even if a response count were available, a single-group study would describe outcomes among treated participants rather than estimate a treatment effect relative to a control. Without a comparison group, changes in lesion status cannot be separated from other influences on the observed outcome. The lack of masking is also relevant to outcome assessment: knowledge of treatment assignment can affect some aspects of care or assessment. The record does not provide enough detail to determine how the lesion assessment was conducted or whether it was independently reviewed.

The small recorded enrollment is a central constraint. With only 1 participant enrolled, an outcome for that individual would not provide a stable estimate of the response proportion in the broader eligible population. A confidence interval can express uncertainty, but it cannot compensate for sparse information or make a single participant representative of all adults who meet the eligibility description. The primary response estimate and interval are not reported in any case.

The study is listed as terminated. That status does not by itself explain why the study ended, whether treatment was completed, or whether the termination was related to safety, feasibility, recruitment, or another reason. The reason is not reported in the registry record. The listed dates document study timing, but they do not clarify the circumstances of termination.

The registry includes safety counts for the arm: 0 serious adverse events among 1 participant at risk, 1 other adverse event among 1 participant at risk, and 0 deaths. These counts should be read as recorded event summaries, not as a complete characterization of safety. The record does not list the event term for the other event, and it does not provide enough detail to assess the event’s nature, timing, severity, or relationship to treatment.

The posted information therefore supports a description of the study design, intended endpoint, enrollment, and limited safety counts. It does not support a quantitative conclusion about the primary response outcome, comparative effectiveness, or the frequency of adverse events in a larger population. The results are not reported in the registry record, and the absence of a posted analysis should not be mistaken for evidence that no response occurred.

9. Statistical Methods Explained

The registry describes a binary primary outcome: each participant either meets the complete-response definition at the assessment or does not. The study-level response fraction would express the number meeting that definition relative to the number assessed. The record specifies a 95% confidence interval for this fraction, but it does not report the response count, fraction, or interval. No primary analysis is listed.

What does a confidence interval communicate?

In general, a confidence interval describes statistical uncertainty around an estimate. For a response fraction, it gives a range of values compatible with the observed data under the method used. The interval is not a guarantee that the true value lies within its endpoints, and it does not describe the range of outcomes for individual participants. Its width depends on the amount of information in the data and on the statistical method. With very sparse data, estimates and intervals can be especially limited. The registry record does not state which interval method was used.

The 95% confidence level is specified for the primary endpoint. That specification alone does not reveal how the endpoint was analyzed, how missing assessments were handled, or whether the analysis was prespecified in a protocol. Those details are not reported in the registry record. Because no primary result is posted, there is no estimate or interval to evaluate for precision, direction, or compatibility with different response rates.

Why does the single-group design matter?

In a single-group study, the observed response fraction describes the participants who received the intervention and were assessed. It is not a between-group treatment effect. A randomized or otherwise suitable comparison can help distinguish treatment-associated outcomes from changes that might occur for other reasons. This registry design has no comparison group, so it cannot make that distinction directly. This is a general limitation of interpreting outcomes from an uncontrolled study, not a claim about what happened to the enrolled participant.

The record lists no masking. In general, masking can reduce the chance that expectations influence care, assessment, or reporting. Its absence does not prove that an assessment was biased, but it makes the methods used to assess lesions important for interpreting a response outcome. Details of assessor masking, independent review, and assessment procedures beyond the response definition are not reported in the registry record.

What do the planning assumptions mean?

The registry describes a planning illustration based on the observed effect, with two-sided significance level 0.05, equal allocation between two arms, and a normal approximation. The stated effect to detect is a specified fraction of the observed effect. These assumptions describe a planning framework, not the design of this single-group study: the registry lists no comparison arm and no allocation. No numerical planning outputs are reported in the registry record. Such planning illustrations are not observed power, and they do not show that the study enrolled enough participants or that its primary endpoint was analyzed.

In general, power calculations concern the chance that a planned statistical test will detect an effect under specified assumptions. They depend on the assumed effect, variability or event frequency, significance level, and design. If assumptions do not match the study or the population, planning estimates may not describe the actual ability to answer the research question. No trial-specific sample-size justification or calculation used to set enrollment is reported in the registry record. The enrollment of 1 participant should therefore not be interpreted as a planned sample size based on a documented justification.

What can the posted analysis information establish?

The registry lists 3 outcome measures and 0 analyses. This distinction matters: listing an endpoint describes what the study intended to measure, while an analysis record would report how data were evaluated. The presence of an outcome definition is not itself an outcome result. The primary response count and estimate, the confidence interval, and the analysis population are not reported in the registry record. There is also no reported statistical model, covariate adjustment, or account of how deviations from the intended schedule were handled.

General statistical interpretation should therefore remain descriptive and cautious. The posted information identifies the endpoint and its definition, but without the result it cannot establish the observed response fraction. Even a reported fraction based on this enrollment would be highly limited as an estimate for a broader population, and the uncontrolled design would still prevent a direct treatment comparison. No recalculated primary result is available from the posted summary statistics.

10. Exact Estimates for Each Arm

No two-arm comparison is shown for this trial, but each arm's result can still be summarized with exact interval estimates computed from the posted counts. The Clopper-Pearson interval is exact and conservative; the Wilson interval is a common closer-to-nominal alternative; the Bayesian credible interval uses a uniform Beta(1, 1) prior. For small groups the three can differ noticeably.

ArmParticipantsEventsObserved %Clopper-Pearson 95% CIWilson 95% CIBayesian 95% credible interval
Arm 1/1x10^11 E7 T Cell Receptor (TCR) T Cells100.0%0.0% to 97.5%0.0% to 79.3%1.3% to 84.2%

R code and output

arm    <- c("Arm 1/1x10^11 E7 T Cell Receptor (TCR) T Cells")
n      <- c(1)
events <- c(0)
for (i in seq_along(n)) {
  ci <- binom.test(events[i], n[i])$conf.int          # Clopper-Pearson exact interval
  cr <- qbeta(c(0.025, 0.975), 1 + events[i], 1 + n[i] - events[i])   # Bayesian, uniform Beta(1,1) prior
  wi <- (function(x, n) { p <- x / n; z <- qnorm(0.975); d <- 1 + z^2 / n
    c((p + z^2 / (2 * n) - z * sqrt(p * (1 - p) / n + z^2 / (4 * n^2))) / d, (p + z^2 / (2 * n) + z * sqrt(p * (1 - p) / n + z^2 / (4 * n^2))) / d) })(events[i], n[i])
  cat(sprintf("ARM|%s|%d|%d|%.1f|%.1f|%.1f|%.1f|%.1f|%.1f|%.1f\n", arm[i], n[i], events[i], 100 * events[i] / n[i],
              100 * ci[1], 100 * ci[2], 100 * wi[1], 100 * wi[2], 100 * cr[1], 100 * cr[2]))
}
ARM  Arm 1/1x10^11 E7 T Cell Receptor (TCR) T Cells  1  0  0.0  0.0  97.5  0.0  79.3  1.3  84.2

11. Multiplicity, Missing Data and Analysis Populations

The registry lists a primary outcome and 3 outcome measures overall, but it lists 0 analyses. The primary outcome is the fraction of participants with a complete response at 3 months. A secondary outcome concerns the number of Grade 2 adverse events considered unlikely to be related to the drug in participants who received E7 TCR T cells in a low-intensity setting without conditioning or systemic aldesleukin. The record does not provide analysis results for these outcomes.

When a study evaluates multiple outcomes or multiple statistical tests, the chance of at least one apparently notable result can increase. Statistical approaches can address that issue, but no multiplicity adjustment or testing hierarchy is reported in the registry record. It is not possible to determine from the outcome listings alone whether any adjustment was planned or used. The secondary outcome’s wording does not establish how it was analyzed or whether it was formally tested.

The record does not describe how missing primary outcome assessments were handled, whether any participant was lost to follow-up, or which participants were included in each outcome analysis. An intention-to-treat, per-protocol, or other analysis population is not reported in the registry record. Nor are rules for incomplete lesion assessment, withdrawal, or assessment outside the stated timeframe. These omissions matter because the response fraction depends on who was assessed and how missing outcomes are treated.

With enrollment of 1 participant and no posted primary analysis, the extent of missing outcome information cannot be established. It would be inappropriate to assume that the participant completed treatment or follow-up, or to treat the absence of an outcome result as a nonresponse. The registry record also does not report interim analyses or a plan for stopping early. The listed terminated status does not supply those details or explain the reason for termination.

12. Safety Results

The registry reports serious adverse events as affected participants divided by participants at risk.

ArmParticipants with serious adverse eventsParticipants at riskPercentage
Arm 1/1x10^11 E7 T Cell Receptor (TCR) T Cells010.0%

Deaths

ArmDeaths (participants affected of at risk)
Arm 1/1x10^11 E7 T Cell Receptor (TCR) T Cells0 of 1

Other (non-serious) adverse events

Participants with at least one non-serious event at or above the registry's 0% reporting threshold.

ArmParticipants affected of at risk
Arm 1/1x10^11 E7 T Cell Receptor (TCR) T Cells1 of 1

Most frequent non-serious adverse event terms

Event termOrgan systemArm 1/1x10^11 E7 T Cell Receptor (TCR) T Cells
Vaginal painReproductive system and breast disorders1 of 1
Do not overextend the safety comparison. Serious-adverse-event counts are safety observations, not efficacy outcomes, and should not be combined with the primary result into a single benefit-risk number.

The registry’s arm-level safety summary reports 0 serious adverse events among 1 participant at risk, 1 other adverse event among 1 participant at risk, and 0 deaths. These are counts from a group with enrollment of 1 participant; they are not a broad estimate of event frequency in a larger population. The record does not list serious adverse event terms.

The other adverse event is not described by term in the posted summary. Its severity, onset, duration, outcome, and relationship to treatment are not reported in the registry record. The listed secondary outcome refers to Grade 2 events considered unlikely to be related to the drug in a low-intensity setting without conditioning or systemic aldesleukin, but the available safety counts do not identify whether the one other event met that definition. The counts should not be used to infer that it did.

Zero recorded serious adverse events and zero deaths describe the posted counts; they do not establish that treatment has no safety risks. Sparse enrollment limits the range of safety experience that can be observed, and the registry record does not provide the detail needed to characterize the event that was counted. These figures are a limited record of reported events, not a complete safety assessment.

13. What the Result Does, and Does Not, Mean

The registry record establishes that a phase II, single-group study of E7 TCR T cells for vulvar HSIL was conducted, that it was terminated, and that enrollment was 1 participant. It also documents a planned primary endpoint: complete response at 3 months, defined as disappearance of all target lesions without new lesions appearing. The record includes limited adverse event counts.

It does not report the primary response result. There is no posted response count, fraction, or 95% confidence interval, and the record lists 0 analyses. Therefore, the available record cannot show whether the participant met the complete-response definition. The absence of a result in the registry is not equivalent to a finding of no response, and it is not evidence of a response.

Even if an outcome were reported for the enrolled participant, the single-group design would not estimate how that outcome compares with an alternative treatment or with no study treatment. A response observed after treatment would be a description of timing and outcome, not proof that treatment caused the response. The small enrollment would also make it difficult to generalize an individual outcome to the broader population of adults with surgically unresectable or previously unsuccessfully treated vulvar HSIL.

The endpoint is a lesion-based assessment at a defined time point. It does not, by itself, establish that any response is durable or that the condition is cured. The registry’s stated objective refers to cure, but the recorded primary endpoint is complete response at 3 months. Longer-term disease status is not reported in the registry record.

The safety counts should also be interpreted narrowly: 0 serious adverse events, 1 other adverse event, and 0 deaths are recorded for the arm, with 1 participant at risk. The record does not identify the other event or provide enough detail for a fuller safety interpretation. In sum, this record describes a study question and limited study information, but it does not provide results sufficient to determine the primary response outcome or to estimate comparative benefit or safety.

14. Why This Trial Matters Statistically

This trial is statistically notable because it asks a defined response question but the registry record reports enrollment of only 1 participant and no primary analysis. That contrast makes the distinction between an intended endpoint and an analyzable result especially important. A complete-response definition can be clear and clinically relevant while still yielding no interpretable study-level estimate if the result is not reported.

The design also illustrates the difference between describing outcomes and estimating treatment effects. A single group can document what happened among treated participants, but without a comparator it cannot determine whether observed outcomes differ from what would have occurred under another approach. This limitation is not resolved by labeling a study phase II or by specifying a confidence interval. The design and amount of information constrain what can be learned.

The registry specifies a 95% confidence interval for the primary fraction, emphasizing that response proportions require an account of uncertainty as well as a point estimate. But an interval cannot be interpreted when the underlying outcome count and estimate are absent. More broadly, an outcome definition, planned assessment time, and analysis plan are distinct pieces of evidence. The record includes the endpoint definition and timing, but not a result or analysis.

The terminated status and the safety counts also show why registry interpretation requires attention to context. Termination alone does not disclose why enrollment stopped or whether planned treatment and follow-up were completed. Sparse safety counts can document reported events without establishing a comprehensive safety profile. The reason for termination and the detailed event information are not reported in the registry record.

For clinical researchers, this study is a reminder that the value of an endpoint depends not only on its definition but also on the completeness of outcome reporting, the analysis population, and the design’s ability to support the intended inference. Here, the posted information permits a careful description of the question and design, but not a conclusion about the primary response result.

15. Limitations

Several limitations are specific to this study record. Enrollment was 1 participant, which sharply limits the information available about response and safety. The record does not report the primary outcome count or estimate, so the main endpoint cannot be interpreted at all from the posted results. It lists 0 analyses, and it does not state whether the enrolled participant completed treatment or the planned follow-up.

The study had one group, no allocation, and no masking. There was no comparator for estimating a relative treatment effect. The registry record does not describe procedures for independent lesion review or any other method that might clarify how the primary response assessment was protected from assessment bias. The reason for termination is not reported, so the effect of termination on the planned study objectives cannot be determined.

Information about participant characteristics is limited. The eligibility description identifies adults with vulvar HSIL that could not be removed surgically or for which surgery had failed, but detailed baseline disease characteristics and prior treatment histories are not reported in the registry record. The record also does not report actual treatment exposure, the timing of treatment, completion of planned visits, or longer-term lesion outcomes for the enrolled participant.

For safety, the registry reports counts but does not list the serious event terms or identify the other event. Details about event severity, timing, duration, outcome, and treatment relationship are not reported in the registry record. These gaps, combined with enrollment of 1 participant, limit what the safety counts can establish.

Finally, the registry does not report a sample-size justification, missing-data procedures, analysis populations, interim analyses, or a statistical analysis plan. The planning assumptions described for an illustration do not establish how this single-group trial was designed or analyzed. These limitations make the posted record descriptive rather than a basis for firm estimates of response, comparative effects, or safety.

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18. Sources

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19. Record Summary

This is a phase II, single-group study of E7 TCR T cells for adults with vulvar HSIL that could not be removed with surgery or for which surgery had failed. The listed intervention was 1x10^11 cells given intravenously over 20 to 30 minutes on day 0. The primary endpoint was complete response at 3 months, defined as disappearance of all target lesions with no new lesions appearing.

The registry record lists enrollment of 1 participant, no masking, and terminated status. It reports 0 serious adverse events among 1 participant at risk, 1 other adverse event among 1 participant at risk, and 0 deaths. The primary response result and its 95% confidence interval are not reported in the registry record. The record lists 3 outcome measures and 0 analyses. The reason for termination, analysis populations, missing-data methods, and detailed safety event information are not reported in the registry record.

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