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Carcinoma, Non-Small-Cell Lung Phase 2 Binary Endpoint NCT00711594

LUX-Lung 4: BIBW 2992 (Afatinib) Phase I Trial in Advanced Non Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients & Phase II Trial in Non Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients Failing Erlotinib or Gefitinib: Complete Statistical Analysis

NCT00711594 records a non-randomized, open-label Phase I/II study of BIBW 2992 in non-small-cell lung cancer. The registry describes a Phase I safety and dose-finding step and a Phase II monotherapy step, but does not report the primary endpoint results.

Trial start: 2008-04  ·  Enrollment: 74  ·  Sponsor: Boehringer Ingelheim
Scope of this record

This page provides an independent statistical analysis and educational interpretation of publicly reported results. ClinicalTrials.gov provides the official trial registry record. Numerical trial results on this page are restricted to the results posted in the ClinicalTrials.gov record; calculations added by Clinical Biostats are labelled as such.

1. Trial at a Glance

This page covers the registry results for LUX-Lung 4: BIBW 2992 (Afatinib) Phase I Trial in Advanced Non Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients & Phase II Trial in Non Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients Failing Erlotinib or Gefitinib (NCT00711594), a non-randomized phase 2 study. The primary outcome is Phase I Step: Safety of BIBW 2992 Assessed Based on Incidence of Dose Limiting Toxicity (DLT) and Incidence & Intensity of Adverse Events According to CTCAE.

74
Enrollment
Phase 2
n/a
Arms
In the primary outcome
n/a
Effect
No re-analysis shown
n/a
95% CI
See limitations
FeatureRegistry value
ClinicalTrials.gov identifierNCT00711594
PhasePhase 2
ConditionCarcinoma, Non-Small-Cell Lung
AllocationNon-Randomized
Design modelSingle Group
MaskingNone (open label)
Enrollment74
Arms in the primary outcomen/a
Lead sponsorBoehringer Ingelheim
Results postedYes

2. Clinical Question

Population

People with advanced non-small-cell lung cancer were included in the Phase I step. The Phase II step focused on people with advanced disease resistant to first-generation EGFR tyrosine kinase inhibitors; the trial title also describes patients failing erlotinib or gefitinib. The Phase I safety population was the treated set: participants who received at least one dose of BIBW 2992. The registry does not report further eligibility details in this record.

Intervention

BIBW 2992, also called afatinib in the trial title, was given orally. The Phase I step escalated doses starting at 20mg daily to estimate the maximum tolerated dose, with a dose level up to 50 mg/day described in the study objective. In Phase II, participants received continuous once-daily oral treatment at the high dose selected for that step, with treatment continuing until progression or undue adverse events. Dose reductions were permitted after temporary discontinuation for drug-related adverse events.

Comparator

There was no randomized control group. The registry identifies the study as non-randomized and single-group, and its intervention arms represent doses and study steps rather than a like-for-like control comparison. Comparisons among the listed dose groups therefore should not be read as randomized treatment contrasts.

Primary question

The registered primary outcome is a Phase I safety assessment: incidence of dose-limiting toxicity and incidence and intensity of adverse events according to CTCAE, from treatment start to treatment end. The Phase II objective was to estimate efficacy of BIBW 2992 monotherapy in the specified resistant advanced disease population. The registry record does not report the primary endpoint results, so the posted information does not establish the observed dose-limiting toxicity findings or the Phase II efficacy results.

3. Trial Design

NCT00711594 is a completed, open-label, non-randomized Phase I/II trial of BIBW 2992 in non-small-cell lung cancer. The registry lists an enrollment of 74. Its design is described as single-group, with no masking. The trial combines two distinct steps, so its dose-finding and safety aims should be separated from its later monotherapy efficacy aim when interpreting the record.

In the Phase I step, escalating oral doses began at 20mg daily. The stated objective was to estimate the maximum tolerated dose at a level up to 50 mg/day and determine the recommended dose for Phase II. The listed dose groups include 20mg, 40mg, and 50mg in Phase I. These dose groups are not randomized arms, and differences among them could reflect the dose-escalation sequence or other differences in who entered each step. The registry does not report the escalation rules or the decision process used to select a dose.

The Phase II step evaluated continuous once-daily oral BIBW 2992 at the high dose determined in Phase I. Treatment was to continue until progression or undue adverse events, with up to two dose reductions permitted if needed after temporary discontinuation for drug-related adverse events. The registry describes this step as enrolling patients with advanced non-small-cell lung cancer resistant to first-generation EGFR inhibitors. It lists a 50mg Phase II group, but does not report a randomized comparator.

The record lists a start date of 2008-04, primary completion in 2013-11, and status as completed. Open-label, single-group designs can describe safety and outcomes observed during treatment, but without a randomized control they do not by themselves isolate the effect of treatment from other influences. Detailed protocol methods, including the specific analysis plan and eligibility rules, are not reported in the registry record.

4. Participant Flow and Accounting

The registry reports how participants moved through each stage of the study. All counts below are exactly as posted; missing counts are not inferred from other stages.

Overall Study

StageBIBW 20mgBIBW 40mgBIBW 50mg (Phase I)BIBW 50mg (Phase II)
STARTED33662
COMPLETED0000
NOT COMPLETED33662

Reasons for not completing this period:

ReasonBIBW 20mgBIBW 40mgBIBW 50mg (Phase I)BIBW 50mg (Phase II)
Progressive disease22644
Other Adverse Event10016
Withdrawal by Subject0102

Analysis population for the primary outcome, as defined in the registry: The "treated set" of patients was defined as all patients who received at least 1 dose of BIBW 2992 medication.

5. Baseline Characteristics

The table reproduces the baseline characteristics posted in the registry, which describe the participants analysed at baseline and help show whether the randomized groups were comparable.

Population: Until the snapshot for CTR

CharacteristicUnitBIBW 20mgBIBW 40mgBIBW 50mg (Phase I)BIBW 50mg (Phase II)Total
Participants analysed3366274
Age, Continuousyears65.0 (64 to 67)56.0 (46 to 57)63.0 (39 to 67)65.0 (33 to 84)65.0 (33 to 84)
Sex: Female, Male: FemaleParticipants2234855
Sex: Female, Male: MaleParticipants1131419

6. Primary Endpoint

The registry lists the primary outcome as Phase I Step: Safety of BIBW 2992 Assessed Based on Incidence of Dose Limiting Toxicity (DLT) and Incidence & Intensity of Adverse Events According to CTCAE, measured over start of treatment to end of treatment.

ElementRegistry entry
Result typeNumber
Measure of spreadnot applicable
Unitparticipants
Endpoint classificationBinary Endpoint

The registered primary endpoint concerns safety in the Phase I step. It includes the incidence of dose-limiting toxicity and the incidence and intensity of adverse events classified according to CTCAE. The stated observation period runs from the start of treatment to the end of treatment. The endpoint population is the treated set, defined as all patients who received at least one dose of BIBW 2992.

In general, dose-limiting toxicity is used in early dose-finding research to identify toxicities that constrain dose escalation or help guide selection of a dose for later study. Recording adverse-event incidence and intensity adds a broader description of tolerability than a dose-limiting-toxicity count alone. CTCAE provides a framework for classifying adverse-event intensity; however, the registry record does not give the grading rules, event-specific definitions, or the threshold used to count a toxicity as dose limiting.

The record names the primary safety endpoint but does not report its results. It therefore does not show the number of participants with dose-limiting toxicity or the distribution of adverse-event intensity for the primary endpoint. The separately posted serious and other adverse-event counts offer safety information, but they are not a substitute for the missing primary endpoint results or its detailed CTCAE analysis.

7. Why No Re-analysis Is Shown

Reported as posted, not recalculated. Not a randomized comparison (allocation: non-randomized); arms are not a like-for-like control comparison. A result is recalculated only when the posted data support a clean two-arm comparison, so no result is shown beyond what the sponsor posted.

8. Statistical Interpretation

Clinical Biostats interpretation

The registry describes two study aims: dose finding and safety in Phase I, followed by an efficacy estimate in Phase II. The design information and posted safety counts can be read as descriptions of the study, but the record does not report the primary endpoint results or the Phase II efficacy results. In particular, it does not provide an observed dose-limiting-toxicity result. The named secondary outcomes include clinical benefit, time to and duration of objective response, duration of clinical benefit, progression-free survival, and overall survival, but outcome values are not included in the registry record recorded for this trial.

The adverse-event summary lists serious adverse-event counts of 1 among 3 participants in the BIBW 20mg group, 0 among 3 in BIBW 40mg, 2 among 6 in BIBW 50mg (Phase I), and 16 among 62 in BIBW 50mg (Phase II). These are descriptive counts by registry group. Because allocation was non-randomized, the groups are not like-for-like controls, and their counts should not be interpreted as evidence that one dose caused more or fewer events than another. Differences in group composition, treatment step, and time under observation could affect the observed counts; details needed to assess those factors are not reported in the registry record.

The record also lists participants affected by other adverse events in each group: 3 of 3, 3 of 3, 6 of 6, and 62 of 62, respectively. These entries describe reported counts, not a comparison of severity or treatment benefit. Death counts are not reported in the registry record. The serious-event terms listed include bile duct cancer, enteritis, mucosal inflammation, diarrhoea, dehydration, and bronchitis; the record presents percentages for these terms but does not explain their denominators in the registry record, so they should not be combined or reinterpreted.

No effect estimate, uncertainty interval, test result, or adjusted analysis is reported in the registry record. Without those results, the observed precision of an efficacy estimate cannot be assessed. Even if outcomes were reported, the single-group, open-label design would limit causal interpretation: observed clinical outcomes could not be separated confidently from the natural course of disease, selection, or other influences using a randomized concurrent comparator. The registry does not report a comparison that would resolve those issues.

9. Statistical Methods Explained

What does the single-group design imply?

In general, a single-group study describes outcomes among participants receiving the study treatment without a randomized concurrent control group. It can document events and outcomes during treatment and can support dose-finding work, but it does not provide the protection against confounding that random assignment is intended to provide. This trial is registered as non-randomized, unmasked, and single-group. Its listed dose groups correspond to different doses and study steps, not to randomized treatment arms. Consequently, a direct numerical contrast between those groups would not establish a causal dose effect.

Open-label means that masking was absent according to the record. In general, knowledge of treatment can influence reporting, assessment, or management of outcomes, particularly for outcomes requiring clinical judgment. The registry does not report whether any outcome assessment was independently reviewed or whether specific procedures were used to limit such influence. Those details should not be assumed.

How should event counts be understood?

The primary safety endpoint is expressed as participant counts for dose-limiting toxicity and adverse events, with adverse-event intensity assessed according to CTCAE. In general, a count states how many participants met a defined event criterion; interpretation depends on the event definition, observation period, and population at risk. Here, the endpoint timeframe is from treatment start to treatment end, and the treated set includes anyone who received at least one dose. The registry does not report a primary-endpoint count or the detailed counting rules.

The separately reported serious and other adverse-event figures are also participant counts. They describe the number affected within the named groups, rather than the number of event episodes. The record does not provide the event-level data or clarify all counting conventions. A participant with more than one event may not be represented in the same way as a count of unique event episodes; the registry record does not report enough detail to resolve that distinction. The serious-event percentages listed by term should be interpreted only as recorded because their denominators are not described in the registry record for this trial.

What role do uncertainty intervals and tests play?

In general, a confidence interval describes a range of values compatible with the data under a statistical model and conveys the precision of an estimate. A narrow interval indicates greater precision than a wide interval, while neither interval width nor a test result alone establishes clinical importance. The registry record does not report confidence intervals, standard errors, p-values, or treatment-effect estimates for the outcomes named in this trial. The absence of those values means precision and statistical compatibility cannot be evaluated from this record.

What can be said about planning illustrations?

In general, sample-size planning asks how many participants or events a future study might need under specified assumptions. It is distinct from the number actually observed and is not a measure of the trial’s observed power. The planning method described for the illustrations uses a two-sided significance level of 0.05, equal allocation between two arms, and a normal approximation. It defines the effect to detect as a stated fraction of the observed effect. For time-to-event outcomes, the planning quantity is the total number of events using the Schoenfeld approach; for other outcomes, it is participants per arm.

Those assumptions describe an illustration, not the design justification for this trial. The registry does not report the trial’s own sample-size justification or a randomized two-arm comparison. No numerical planning outputs are reported in the registry record for this trial, and no observed effect value is available from which to interpret such outputs. Planning figures, if considered, would therefore be hypothetical illustrations rather than evidence about the actual precision or power of this study.

How should multiple outcomes be considered?

The record lists 17 outcome measures and 0 analysis entries. In general, testing many outcomes can increase the chance of chance findings when results are interpreted as confirmatory. Methods such as prespecifying a primary outcome or adjusting for multiple comparisons can address that issue, but the registry entries do not describe a multiplicity strategy. The named secondary outcomes should therefore be understood as registered outcome areas, not as a set of results whose statistical interpretation is documented. The record also does not report an analysis plan specifying models, covariates, or handling of repeated assessments.

10. Multiplicity, Missing Data and Analysis Populations

The registry lists 17 outcome measures, including a Phase I primary safety endpoint and several Phase II secondary outcomes related to clinical benefit, response, progression-free survival, and overall survival. It lists 0 analysis entries. The record does not describe which outcomes were included in each analysis, how many statistical tests were planned, or whether any multiplicity adjustment was specified. In general, when several outcomes are examined, selective emphasis or chance findings can complicate interpretation; a prespecified analysis plan helps readers distinguish confirmatory from exploratory results. Such a plan is not reported in the registry record.

The primary safety endpoint defines its population as the treated set: patients who received at least one dose of BIBW 2992. This is the only analysis-population definition included in the registry record. The record does not report a separate Phase II efficacy population, rules for excluding participants from analyses, or whether the analysis followed any other population principle.

Missing-data methods are not reported in the registry record. There is no information about missing outcome assessments, censoring rules, withdrawal handling, imputation, or sensitivity analyses. For time-to-event outcomes, such as progression-free and overall survival, the registry names the outcomes but does not give the event definitions, censoring procedures, or analysis dates. These omissions limit assessment of how complete follow-up was handled and whether the analysis could be affected by missing observations.

The registry’s lack of reported methods is not evidence that no analyses or procedures took place; it means they cannot be evaluated from the record. No statistical plan, interim analysis procedure, or sample-size justification is reported in the registry record.

11. Safety Results

The registry reports serious adverse events as affected participants divided by participants at risk.

ArmParticipants with serious adverse eventsParticipants at riskPercentage
BIBW 20mg1333.3%
BIBW 40mg030.0%
BIBW 50mg (Phase I)2633.3%
BIBW 50mg (Phase II)166225.8%
Participants with at least one serious adverse event
Serious adverse events by armBIBW 20mg33.3%BIBW 40mg0.0%BIBW 50mg (Phase I)33.3%BIBW 50mg (Phase II)25.8%% of participants with at least one serious adverse event

Other (non-serious) adverse events

Participants with at least one non-serious event at or above the registry's 5% reporting threshold.

ArmParticipants affected of at risk
BIBW 20mg3 of 3
BIBW 40mg3 of 3
BIBW 50mg (Phase I)6 of 6
BIBW 50mg (Phase II)62 of 62

Most frequent serious adverse event terms

Event termOrgan systemBIBW 20mgBIBW 40mgBIBW 50mg (Phase I)BIBW 50mg (Phase II)
DiarrhoeaGastrointestinal disorders0 of 30 of 30 of 64 of 62
DehydrationMetabolism and nutrition disorders0 of 30 of 30 of 62 of 62
BronchitisInfections and infestations0 of 30 of 30 of 61 of 62
Pneumonia bacterialInfections and infestations0 of 30 of 30 of 61 of 62
SepsisInfections and infestations0 of 30 of 30 of 61 of 62
Bile duct cancerNeoplasms benign, malignant and unspecified (incl cysts and polyps)1 of 30 of 30 of 60 of 62
Metastases to central nervous systemNeoplasms benign, malignant and unspecified (incl cysts and polyps)0 of 30 of 30 of 61 of 62
Metastatic painNeoplasms benign, malignant and unspecified (incl cysts and polyps)0 of 30 of 30 of 61 of 62
Decreased appetiteMetabolism and nutrition disorders0 of 30 of 30 of 61 of 62
SyncopeNervous system disorders0 of 30 of 30 of 61 of 62

Most frequent non-serious adverse event terms

Event termOrgan systemBIBW 20mgBIBW 40mgBIBW 50mg (Phase I)BIBW 50mg (Phase II)
DiarrhoeaGastrointestinal disorders2 of 32 of 36 of 658 of 62
RashSkin and subcutaneous tissue disorders3 of 33 of 32 of 653 of 62
ParonychiaInfections and infestations1 of 32 of 33 of 642 of 62
StomatitisGastrointestinal disorders1 of 33 of 33 of 640 of 62
Decreased appetiteMetabolism and nutrition disorders2 of 32 of 33 of 637 of 62
NauseaGastrointestinal disorders1 of 33 of 33 of 624 of 62
Dry skinSkin and subcutaneous tissue disorders3 of 31 of 35 of 615 of 62
Weight decreasedInvestigations1 of 30 of 32 of 619 of 62
VomitingGastrointestinal disorders0 of 31 of 33 of 617 of 62
FatigueGeneral disorders0 of 31 of 32 of 618 of 62

Serious events with the highest arm-level rate: bile duct cancer (33.3%), enteritis (16.7%), mucosal inflammation (16.7%), diarrhoea (6.5%), dehydration (3.2%).

Do not overextend the safety comparison. Serious-adverse-event counts are safety observations, not efficacy outcomes, and should not be combined with the primary result into a single benefit-risk number.

The registry lists serious adverse-event counts by dose group: BIBW 20mg, 1 of 3; BIBW 40mg, 0 of 3; BIBW 50mg (Phase I), 2 of 6; and BIBW 50mg (Phase II), 16 of 62. The corresponding counts for other adverse events are 3 of 3, 3 of 3, 6 of 6, and 62 of 62. These are descriptive entries within the registry’s groups, not randomized comparisons. The group labels distinguish both dose and study step, so a contrast between them should not be treated as a controlled estimate of dose-related risk.

The record lists serious-event terms with percentages: bile duct cancer, 33.3%; enteritis, 16.7%; mucosal inflammation, 16.7%; diarrhoea, 6.5%; dehydration, 3.2%; and bronchitis, 1.6%. It does not report the denominators or clarify how these terms were selected for the list. The percentages should therefore be retained as registry-reported descriptions rather than recalculated or used to infer comparative risks.

Deaths are not reported in the registry record. The serious and other adverse-event counts do not replace the primary Phase I endpoint results, which are not reported. They also do not describe event timing, duration, relatedness, or intensity in enough detail to establish a full safety profile.

12. What the Result Does, and Does Not, Mean

The record establishes that the trial was designed to address dose finding and safety in Phase I and to estimate monotherapy efficacy in Phase II among people with advanced non-small-cell lung cancer resistant to first-generation EGFR inhibitors. It describes oral BIBW 2992 treatment, dose escalation in the early step, and continuous once-daily dosing in the later step. It also includes descriptive adverse-event counts for the listed groups.

What the record does not establish is the primary endpoint result. It does not report the number of participants with dose-limiting toxicity, the primary adverse-event intensity findings, or the Phase II efficacy values for the named outcomes. As a result, it is not possible from these registry entries to quantify the observed efficacy, determine its precision, or assess the statistical evidence for a treatment effect. A list of outcomes and a study objective are not themselves outcome results.

The adverse-event entries show that serious and other events were recorded among participants in the dose groups. Those counts are descriptive, and the groups are not randomized comparisons. They do not show that a dose caused an event, nor do they establish a causal difference between doses or study steps. The record does not provide the detail needed to evaluate event timing, follow-up, or all event definitions.

In general, a single-group, open-label study can contribute information about treatment exposure and observed events, but it cannot provide the same causal comparison as a randomized controlled trial. This limitation is especially important for interpreting clinical outcomes, which may also be influenced by disease course and participant characteristics. The record does not report a concurrent control group or an adjusted comparison.

The registry should therefore be read as a description of the study design, its registered outcomes, and selected safety counts—not as a complete statistical report of the trial’s efficacy or primary safety findings. The primary completion date and completed status indicate administrative trial milestones, not the magnitude or certainty of any clinical result.

13. Why This Trial Matters Statistically

This trial is statistically informative as an example of a study with different purposes across its development steps. The Phase I objective was dose finding, including estimation of a maximum tolerated dose and selection of a recommended dose for Phase II. The Phase II objective was to estimate efficacy in a defined resistant-disease population. Separating those aims matters because early dose-finding safety questions and later efficacy questions require different interpretations, populations, and outcome summaries.

The record also illustrates why design labels matter. Its non-randomized, open-label, single-group structure does not support interpreting the dose groups as randomized controls. Although the registry gives counts for serious and other adverse events by group, those counts are not adjusted comparisons and do not establish a causal dose-response relationship. Readers should distinguish a descriptive safety summary from an estimate of comparative treatment effect.

Another statistical issue is the difference between registered outcomes and reported results. The record names a primary safety endpoint and multiple secondary outcomes, but does not include their results or an analysis plan. Without estimates and measures of uncertainty, readers cannot evaluate precision, statistical compatibility, or the extent to which results support the stated objectives. The record’s 0 analysis entries makes that reporting gap especially apparent.

Finally, the listed sample-size assumptions describe planning illustrations rather than the trial’s own design rationale or observed power. Planning calculations depend on assumptions about effect size, allocation, and analysis method; they cannot be interpreted as evidence that the study had a particular probability of detecting an effect. The trial’s own sample-size justification is not reported in the registry record. These distinctions help prevent descriptive counts, planning assumptions, and absent outcome results from being treated as interchangeable evidence.

14. Limitations

Several trial-specific limitations follow from the registry record. The study is non-randomized, open-label, and single-group, with no randomized control group. The dose groups also correspond to different phases and doses, so their adverse-event counts are not direct like-for-like comparisons. The record does not describe adjustment for differences among participants or other factors that could affect outcomes.

The registered primary endpoint concerns Phase I safety, but its results are not reported. The Phase II objective concerns efficacy, yet the record does not give results for its listed clinical-benefit, response, progression-free survival, or overall-survival outcomes. As a result, the record does not allow assessment of effect magnitude or precision. The adverse-event summary is not a substitute for those missing results.

Important statistical details are not reported in the registry record, including the analysis plan, sample-size justification, missing-data procedures, outcome-specific analysis populations, definitions for all events, and handling of time-to-event follow-up. The record also does not provide confidence intervals, p-values, or model specifications. The denominators for the percentages attached to serious-event terms are not reported in the registry record for this trial. Death counts are not reported.

These limitations describe what can be assessed from the registry record; they do not establish that the study lacked procedures or analyses that are not recorded. They do mean that conclusions about efficacy, precision, and comparative safety cannot be drawn from this record alone.

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18. Record Summary

NCT00711594, titled LUX-Lung 4, is a completed, open-label, non-randomized Phase I/II study of BIBW 2992 in non-small-cell lung cancer. Boehringer Ingelheim is listed as sponsor. The registry records a start date of 2008-04, primary completion in 2013-11, and enrollment of 74.

The Phase I step involved oral dose escalation and aimed to estimate the maximum tolerated dose and select a dose for Phase II. The Phase II step evaluated continuous once-daily oral treatment in advanced disease resistant to first-generation EGFR inhibitors. The registered primary outcome is a Phase I safety endpoint based on dose-limiting toxicity and adverse events according to CTCAE.

The record lists safety counts and secondary outcome topics, but does not report the primary endpoint results or the Phase II efficacy results. Its design does not provide randomized dose comparisons, and key statistical details—including the analysis plan and missing-data methods—are not reported in the registry record.

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