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Peripheral Artery Disease Phase 2 Continuous Endpoint NCT01774097

Patients With Intermittent Claudication Injected With ALDH Bright Cells: Complete Statistical Analysis

A randomized, quadruple-masked phase 2 trial compared intramuscular ALD-301 with placebo in people with intermittent claudication. The primary analysis assessed peak walking time, with additional outcomes covering walking performance, ankle-brachial index, and patient-reported function.

Trial start: 2013-06  ·  Enrollment: 82  ·  Sponsor: The University of Texas Health Science Center, Houston
Scope of this record

This page provides an independent statistical analysis and educational interpretation of publicly reported results. ClinicalTrials.gov provides the official trial registry record. Numerical trial results on this page are restricted to the results posted in the ClinicalTrials.gov record; calculations added by Clinical Biostats are labelled as such.

1. Trial at a Glance

This page covers the registry results for Patients With Intermittent Claudication Injected With ALDH Bright Cells (NCT01774097), a randomized phase 2 study. The primary outcome is Peak Walking Time (PWT).

82
Enrollment
Phase 2
2
Arms
In the primary outcome
1.00
Mean difference
ALDHbr
-0.52–2.52
95% CI
Two-sided
FeatureRegistry value
ClinicalTrials.gov identifierNCT01774097
PhasePhase 2
ConditionPeripheral Artery Disease, Intermittent Claudication
AllocationRandomized
Design modelParallel
MaskingQuadruple
Enrollment82
Arms in the primary outcome2
Lead sponsorThe University of Texas Health Science Center, Houston
Results postedYes

2. Clinical Question

Population

Participants had peripheral artery disease with intermittent claudication, meaning pain associated with blocked blood vessels in the leg. The primary analysis included participants with analyzable treadmill test results at baseline and 6 months.

Intervention

ALD-301, described as bone marrow-derived aldehyde dehydrogenase bright cells, was given by intramuscular injection. The study purpose was to assess whether cells placed in affected calf and lower thigh muscles could be administered safely and improve blood flow or walking performance.

Comparator

The comparison group received placebo (vehicle) by intramuscular injection. The study used a randomized, parallel-group design with quadruple masking.

Primary question

Did the average change in peak walking time from baseline to 6 months differ between participants assigned to ALD-301 and those assigned to placebo? Peak walking time was measured on a treadmill under standardized conditions, with the test ending when claudication symptoms made walking no longer tolerable.

3. Trial Design

This completed phase 2 study was randomized, quadruple-masked, and used a parallel-group model. The registry reports enrollment of 82. Participants were assigned to ALD-301 or placebo (vehicle), both administered by intramuscular injection. The sponsor was The University of Texas Health Science Center, Houston. The recorded study start was 2013-06, and primary completion was 2016-08.

The condition records identify peripheral artery disease and intermittent claudication. The study description focuses on whether cells taken from a participant’s bone marrow could be injected into affected calf and lower thigh muscles and whether this approach could be administered safely and improve blood flow or peak walking time. The registry does not report additional details about the cell preparation or the injection procedure.

The primary outcome was peak walking time, assessed at baseline and 6 months. Its description defines the measure as the placebo-adjusted average change over time in the maximum duration a participant could walk on a treadmill under standardized conditions before claudication symptoms prevented continuing. The primary analysis population is described as participants with available analyzable baseline and 6-month treadmill test results.

The registry lists ankle-brachial index before and after exercise, claudication onset time, peak walking time, and patient-reported measures of walking and peripheral artery disease-related function among the outcomes. The registry record does not report the original sample-size justification, the detailed allocation procedure, or the operational details of masking.

4. Participant Flow and Accounting

The registry reports how participants moved through each stage of the study. All counts below are exactly as posted; missing counts are not inferred from other stages.

Overall Study

StageALDHbrPlacebo (Vehicle)
STARTED4042
COMPLETED3840
NOT COMPLETED22

Reasons for not completing this period:

ReasonALDHbrPlacebo (Vehicle)
Withdrawal by Subject11
Adverse Event11

Analysis population for the primary outcome, as defined in the registry: Participants who had available analyzable baseline and 6 month treadmill test results.

5. Baseline Characteristics

The table reproduces the baseline characteristics posted in the registry, which describe the participants analysed at baseline and help show whether the randomized groups were comparable.

Population: Information for 4 participants is not available due to patient withdrawal from the study.

CharacteristicUnitALDHbrPlacebo (Vehicle)Total
Participants analysed384078
Age, ContinuousYears66.3 (SD 8.6)66.2 (SD 8.7)66.2 (SD 8.65)
Sex: Female, Male: FemaleParticipants12921
Sex: Female, Male: MaleParticipants263157
Race (NIH/OMB): American Indian or Alaska NativeParticipants000
Race (NIH/OMB): AsianParticipants101
Race (NIH/OMB): Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific IslanderParticipants000
Race (NIH/OMB): Black or African AmericanParticipants369
Race (NIH/OMB): WhiteParticipants343468
Race (NIH/OMB): More than one raceParticipants000
Race (NIH/OMB): Unknown or Not ReportedParticipants000
Region of Enrollment: United Statesparticipants384078

6. Primary Endpoint

The registry lists the primary outcome as Peak Walking Time (PWT), measured over Assessed at baseline and 6 months.

ElementRegistry entry
Result typeMean
Measure of spreadStandard Deviation
Unitminutes
Endpoint classificationContinuous Endpoint

Peak walking time measures how long a participant can continue walking on a treadmill under standardized conditions before claudication symptoms make walking intolerable. It is a functional measure: it captures walking performance during a defined exercise test rather than asking participants to estimate their usual walking in daily life. The registry describes the primary outcome as the placebo-adjusted average change over time, assessed from baseline to 6 months.

The measure is relevant to this trial because intermittent claudication is associated with pain during walking, and the study’s stated purpose included assessing whether the intervention could improve peak walking time. A change in duration can summarize a participant’s performance on the test, while comparing changes between randomized groups helps separate the difference associated with assignment to ALD-301 from changes also seen in the placebo group. That comparison does not by itself establish why any change occurred.

In the posted arm summaries, the mean values are 2.2 minutes for ALDHbr and 1.2 minutes for placebo, with standard deviations of 3.9 and 2.7, respectively. The primary outcome description identifies the analysis population as participants with analyzable treadmill results at both baseline and 6 months. The registry record does not report further detail about how unavailable or non-analyzable treadmill results were handled in the primary analysis.

7. Results Posted in the Registry

Mean difference: ALDHbr

1.00

95% CI: -0.52 to 2.52

Recalculated from the posted summary statistics

Primary outcome by arm, with 95% confidence intervals
Primary outcome by arm with 95% confidence intervals0.00.81.52.33.03.8ALDHbr (n=37)Placebo (Vehicle) (n=39)minutes (95% CI)
Treatment effect versus the control arm
Forest plot of mean difference vs control (95% CI)ALDHbr-0.76-0.050.651.352.052.76mean difference vs control (95% CI)

8. Secondary Efficacy Endpoints

The registry also posts results for secondary outcomes. For each outcome below, the endpoint type, the test applied to the posted summary statistics, the result and its interpretation are given in turn. Secondary endpoints are usually not adjusted for multiple testing, so they support rather than confirm the primary finding.

Secondary outcomeTypeEffect measureEstimate (95% CI)Planning size, 80% power
Pre-exercise Ankle-Brachial Index (ABI)Continuous EndpointMean difference-0.03 (-0.10 to 0.04)420 per arm
Post-exercise Ankle-Brachial Index (ABI)Continuous EndpointMean difference-0.04 (-0.12 to 0.04)291 per arm
Claudication Onset Time (COT)Continuous EndpointMean difference0.30 (-0.55 to 1.15)566 per arm

Pre-exercise Ankle-Brachial Index (ABI)

Treatment effect versus the control arm
Forest plot of mean difference vs control (95% CI)ALDHbr-0.11-0.08-0.05-0.010.020.05mean difference vs control (95% CI)

Post-exercise Ankle-Brachial Index (ABI)

Treatment effect versus the control arm
Forest plot of mean difference vs control (95% CI)ALDHbr-0.13-0.09-0.06-0.020.010.05mean difference vs control (95% CI)

Claudication Onset Time (COT)

Treatment effect versus the control arm
Forest plot of mean difference vs control (95% CI)ALDHbr-0.69-0.290.100.500.891.29mean difference vs control (95% CI)

The secondary outcomes extend the assessment beyond treadmill peak walking time. They include ankle-brachial index measured before and after exercise, claudication onset time, and patient-reported measures of peripheral artery disease and walking ability. Together, these outcomes address physiological measurements, when symptoms begin during walking, and participants’ reported functional limitations. They can add context to the primary result, but they address different aspects of the condition and are not substitutes for the primary endpoint.

In the detailed secondary analyses, the reported estimates do not form a consistent pattern of clear between-group separation. The confidence intervals include zero, and the registry reports linear-regression interaction terms for the ankle-brachial index and claudication onset time outcomes. Those model-based results concern the pattern over the assessed trajectory rather than simply repeating the primary endpoint’s comparison. The registry record does not report detailed results for every listed patient-reported measure.

Secondary findings generally carry less confirmatory weight when many outcomes are examined and the analysis plan does not report how multiplicity was handled. With multiple comparisons, the chance of an apparently notable result arising by chance can increase. The registry record does not report a multiplicity adjustment plan. Accordingly, secondary outcomes are best read as supportive or exploratory evidence, and individual results should not be treated as independent confirmation of the primary finding.

The overall secondary pattern does not resolve the primary analysis’s uncertainty. It also does not establish that no changes occurred. Interpretation depends on the specific outcome, the model, the completeness of measurements, and whether the analysis was prespecified; those details are not all reported in the registry record.

Secondary outcomes registered for this trial, for reference (only those above were recalculated):

9. Statistical Interpretation

Clinical Biostats interpretation

The registry’s primary analysis reports a net mean difference in peak walking time of 0.9 minutes for ALDHbr compared with placebo. The reported 95% confidence interval ranges from -0.6 to 2.5 minutes, and the two-sided t-test p-value is 0.238. The interval includes no difference and also spans estimates in either direction. Thus, the posted result does not establish a clear between-group difference in the primary outcome. It also does not show that the groups were equivalent: the interval remains compatible with a range of possible differences.

A simple unadjusted re-calculation from the posted arm summaries gives a mean difference of 1.0 minutes and an unadjusted p-value of 0.196. The reported arm means are 2.2 minutes for ALDHbr and 1.2 minutes for placebo. These summaries describe the available results; they do not establish that assignment caused a change in walking performance. The sponsor’s own analysis is the primary reported analysis and should be read as such. The registry record does not flag a discrepancy between the sponsor’s analysis and the re-calculation.

The uncertainty matters as much as the point estimate. The sponsor’s interval extends from a value favoring placebo to a value favoring ALDHbr, and includes zero. A p-value of 0.238 indicates that the reported test did not provide strong evidence against the no-difference hypothesis under its assumptions. It is not the probability that the treatment has no effect, nor does it describe the probability that the result is due to chance.

The study reports other measures, including pre-exercise and post-exercise ankle-brachial index and claudication onset time. Across the detailed secondary analyses in the registry, estimated changes do not present a uniform pattern of clear separation between groups; the reported confidence intervals include zero. Those outcomes provide context but do not replace the primary endpoint. Patient-reported scales and other listed outcomes also broaden the set of questions, but their findings should not be inferred from the primary result.

These are results from a phase 2 trial with analyzable primary outcome data reported for 37 ALDHbr participants and 39 placebo participants. The registry record does not provide the original design assumptions or a complete account of missing outcome handling. The findings therefore describe the posted analysis and its precision, not a definitive conclusion about treatment effects or safety.

10. Statistical Methods Explained

What does a mean difference represent?

Peak walking time is continuous, so it can be summarized with a mean. A mean difference compares the average outcome in the ALDHbr group with the average in the placebo group. A positive estimate in the posted comparison indicates a higher mean for ALDHbr; a negative estimate would indicate a higher mean for placebo. The primary registry analysis calls its result a net mean difference. The separate unadjusted re-calculation uses the posted arm-level summaries and is not a substitute for the sponsor’s analysis.

The arm summaries also report standard deviations. A standard deviation describes how spread out individual measurements are around their group mean. It is not a confidence interval and does not describe the uncertainty in the group mean itself. In the primary outcome summaries, the reported standard deviations are 3.9 minutes for ALDHbr and 2.7 minutes for placebo. Variation among participants is relevant because greater variability generally makes a group comparison less precise when other features are similar.

How should the confidence interval be read?

A confidence interval gives a range of values reasonably compatible with the data and the statistical model used to calculate it. The sponsor reports a 95% confidence interval for the primary mean difference, from -0.6 to 2.5 minutes. Because this range includes zero, it is compatible with no mean difference as well as with differences favoring either group. The interval does not assign a probability to each possible effect, and it is not a guarantee that the true effect lies inside the observed limits.

The width of an interval is a practical indication of precision: a narrower interval leaves fewer effect sizes compatible with the analysis, while a wider interval leaves more. Precision depends on factors including the amount of outcome variability, the number of analyzable observations, and the analysis method. An interval that includes zero should not be interpreted as proof of no effect. Conversely, a positive point estimate alone does not establish a difference when uncertainty remains substantial.

What does the p-value add?

The registry reports a two-sided t-test for the primary comparison and a p-value of 0.238. In general, a p-value describes how unusual a test statistic at least as incompatible with the null hypothesis would be if the null hypothesis and test assumptions held. It is not the probability that the null hypothesis is true, and it is not a measure of clinical importance. The p-value should be considered alongside the effect estimate, its confidence interval, and the design and completeness of the data.

The unadjusted re-calculation reports p = 0.196. This is a separate calculation based on posted summary statistics, rather than the trial’s own analysis. The values need not match because the registry’s analysis and the simple re-calculation may not use identical inputs or methods. The registry record does not report enough detail to reconstruct every feature of the sponsor’s analysis. The primary reported result remains the sponsor’s analysis.

Why can variability and over-dispersion matter?

For a continuous outcome, variation in participant measurements affects how precisely a group mean and a between-group difference can be estimated. If observations are more variable than a model anticipates, standard errors may be underestimated and confidence intervals may be too narrow. This issue is often described as over-dispersion when the observed variability exceeds what a model assumes. It is a general statistical concern; the registry record does not report that over-dispersion was identified or that a correction for it was used in this trial.

The displayed standardized effect in the re-calculation is based on the mean difference relative to a pooled standard deviation. Such a standardized measure can help describe the size of a continuous-outcome difference relative to variability, but it does not replace the difference in minutes, which is directly interpretable for peak walking time. The registry record does not report a clinically meaningful threshold for peak walking time, so the clinical importance of a given difference cannot be assessed from a threshold defined in the record.

How do the secondary analyses differ?

The registry reports linear-regression interaction terms for the detailed ankle-brachial index and claudication onset time analyses. An interaction term in a repeated-time analysis can represent whether the pattern of change over time differs between groups. That is not the same estimand as a simple comparison of one mean at one visit. The reported estimates, confidence intervals, and p-values should therefore be understood in the context of the model description rather than treated as interchangeable with the primary t-test.

The detailed secondary analyses include pre-exercise ankle-brachial index, post-exercise ankle-brachial index, and claudication onset time. Their reported confidence intervals include zero. The registry also lists patient-reported outcomes, but the registry record does not report detailed results for every listed secondary measure in the registry record for interpretation. It does not report a multiplicity adjustment plan, so individual secondary p-values should be viewed as exploratory rather than as confirmatory evidence.

These methods explain how estimates can be interpreted; they do not identify the original analysis plan. The registry record does not report the trial’s full statistical analysis plan, the handling of missing data, or whether any interim analyses were conducted.

11. Confidence Intervals and Precision

The primary estimate is 0.9 minutes, with a reported 95% confidence interval from -0.6 to 2.5 minutes. This range is wide enough to include zero, a modest difference in the direction of placebo, and a larger difference in the direction of ALDHbr. The point estimate is therefore only one part of the result; the interval shows that the data do not pin down the magnitude or direction with high precision.

The interval’s inclusion of zero does not establish that the groups have the same mean change. It means the analysis does not rule out no difference at the confidence level reported. Nor does the upper limit prove that an effect of that size is present. Confidence limits represent uncertainty under the analysis, rather than a set of outcomes guaranteed to contain the true effect.

The reported analyzable primary outcome groups include 37 participants assigned to ALDHbr and 39 assigned to placebo. The arm-level standard deviations, 3.9 and 2.7 minutes, indicate substantial variation in observed peak walking time relative to the estimated group means. Variation and the available analyzable observations both contribute to uncertainty. The registry record does not report a clinically meaningful threshold for interpreting the interval, so statistical uncertainty cannot be translated into a judgment about whether particular differences would matter to participants.

The secondary confidence intervals also include zero in the detailed analyses. That pattern is consistent with uncertainty about the direction and size of those between-group differences. It should not be treated as evidence of equivalence, especially because the record does not report equivalence margins or a design intended to test equivalence.

12. Planning a Similar Trial: Sample Size

This is a planning illustration, not a re-evaluation of the original trial. It asks: if a new study wanted to detect a difference like the one observed, or a smaller one, how large would it need to be? It is deliberately not “observed power” of the finished trial, which is not a meaningful quantity.

Effect to detectParticipants per arm, 80% powerParticipants per arm, 90% power
100% of the observed effect175235
75% of the observed effect311417
50% of the observed effect700937
Sample size needed versus the size of the effect to detect
Sample size needed versus size of effect to detect1002005001,0002,00040%60%80%100%80% power90% powersize of effect to detect, as % of the effect observed (log vertical scale: participants per arm)
Treat these figures cautiously. The observed difference is imprecise: its confidence interval includes no difference at all. A sample size built on a noisy estimate can be far too small or too large, so the smaller-effect rows are the more cautious guide.
Method and assumptions. Two-sided α = 0.05, 1:1 allocation, two-sample comparison of means with the pooled standard deviation. Calculated for the comparison: ALDHbr.

The planning illustrations express sample sizes as participants per arm, not as total events. They are calculations based on the observed effect, rather than the trial’s original design. The stated assumptions are a two-sided significance level of 0.05, equal allocation between the two arms, and a normal approximation. Each planning scenario asks what sample size would be needed to detect a specified fraction of the observed effect.

The 80% power column represents the planned chance of detecting the stated effect under the calculation’s assumptions if that effect were the true effect. The 90% power column uses a higher target chance of detection under the same kind of assumptions. Neither column describes the probability that the trial’s conclusion is correct. These are planning illustrations, not observed power.

The rows for 100% of the observed effect, 75% of the observed effect, and 50% of the observed effect show how the assumed target effect changes the planning estimate. Smaller effects are harder to distinguish from random variation, so they require more participants for a given power target. The posted planning values are not a recommendation for a future study by themselves: they rely on an effect estimated from this trial, and that estimate is uncertain. The original protocol’s sample-size justification and design assumptions are not reported in the registry record.

For the continuous outcomes in this study, the listed quantities refer to participants per arm. The registry record’s planning description distinguishes these from time-to-event calculations, which would be expressed as total events; no time-to-event planning results are described for these continuous outcomes.

13. How the Sample Size Is Derived

Power is the probability that a study of a given size rejects the null hypothesis when a specific true effect exists. It depends on four things: the effect to detect, the variability of the outcome, the significance level (here a two-sided α of 0.05, so z1−α/2 = 1.960) and the desired power (z1−β = 0.842 for 80% and 1.282 for 90%).

Formula

n = 2 (z1−α/2 + z1−β)2 σ2 / Δ2

n is the number of participants in each arm, Δ is the difference in means to detect and σ is the common standard deviation.

Worked calculation for this trial

  1. Observed difference Δ = 1.000; pooled standard deviation σ = 3.338.
  2. n = 2 × (1.96 + 0.842)2 × 3.3382 / 1.0002 = 174.9, rounded up to 175 participants per arm for 80% power.

The smaller-effect rows in the table above repeat the same calculation with the effect multiplied by 0.75 and 0.5 (for ratios, applied to the logarithm of the ratio).

R code

alpha <- 0.05
z_a   <- qnorm(1 - alpha / 2)          # two-sided
delta <- 1                      # observed difference in means
sigma <- 3.33810919128973                     # pooled standard deviation
n_per_arm <- function(power, frac = 1) {
  ceiling(round(2 * (z_a + qnorm(power))^2 * sigma^2 / (delta * frac)^2, 6))
}
for (f in c(1, 0.75, 0.5))
  cat(sprintf("%3.0f%% of observed effect: n per arm = %s (80%% power), %s (90%% power)\n", 100 * f,
              format(n_per_arm(0.80, f), big.mark = ","), format(n_per_arm(0.90, f), big.mark = ",")))

# Check against R's built-in function (t-based, so very slightly larger)
cat("power.t.test:", round(power.t.test(delta = delta, sd = sigma, power = 0.80)$n, 1), "\n")

# Simulation: exact two-sample t-test using simulated means and variances
set.seed(1774097)
n    <- n_per_arm(0.80)
reps <- 20000
m_diff <- rnorm(reps, delta, sigma * sqrt(2 / n))             # difference in sample means
s2     <- sigma^2 * rchisq(reps, 2 * (n - 1)) / (2 * (n - 1))   # pooled sample variance
tstat  <- m_diff / sqrt(s2 * 2 / n)
cat(sprintf("Simulated power at n = %s per arm: %.3f (%d replicates)\n", format(n, big.mark = ","), mean(abs(tstat) > qt(0.975, 2 * (n - 1))), reps))

Output from running the code

100% of observed effect: n per arm = 175 (80% power), 235 (90% power)
 75% of observed effect: n per arm = 311 (80% power), 417 (90% power)
 50% of observed effect: n per arm = 700 (80% power), 937 (90% power)
power.t.test: 175.9 
Simulated power at n = 175 per arm: 0.799 (20000 replicates)

The simulation draws many sets of group means and variances at the planned sample size and counts how often the two-sample t-test rejects the null. It should land close to the target power; at very small required sample sizes it can fall below it, because the normal approximation is rough there.

14. Analyses Reported by the Sponsor

MethodEstimate95% CIP-value
t-test, 2 sidedMean Difference (Net) 0.9-0.6 to 2.50.238

The sponsor’s reported primary analysis is a two-sided t-test. It gives a net mean difference of 0.9 minutes, a 95% confidence interval from -0.6 to 2.5 minutes, and p = 0.238. The simple unadjusted re-calculation from the posted arm summaries gives a mean difference of 1.0 minutes and p = 0.196. Both analyses place the point estimate in the direction of a higher mean peak walking time for ALDHbr, and both leave substantial uncertainty about the difference.

The re-calculation is useful as a check based on summary statistics, but it is not the sponsor’s analysis and may not reproduce its exact analytic choices. The sponsor’s result is the trial’s own reported analysis. The registry record does not flag a discrepancy between the sponsor’s result and the re-calculation. The slightly different estimates and p-values should therefore be presented as distinct analyses, not combined or treated as interchangeable.

The sponsor’s confidence interval includes zero, as does the interval from the unadjusted re-calculation. Neither result establishes a clear difference, and neither demonstrates equivalence. Details of any covariate adjustment or other analytic features beyond the reported t-test are not reported in the registry record.

15. Multiplicity, Missing Data and Analysis Populations

The registry lists 12 outcome measures and 11 analyses. It identifies the primary endpoint as peak walking time and lists several secondary outcomes, including ankle-brachial index, claudication onset time, and patient-reported walking and peripheral artery disease measures. The registry record does not report a comprehensive statistical analysis plan or whether a hierarchy of secondary hypotheses was prespecified.

The registry record does not report whether p-values were adjusted for multiple comparisons. When several outcomes or analyses are examined, unadjusted p-values can overstate the strength of evidence if each is interpreted as a separate confirmatory test. This general concern is especially relevant for secondary outcomes. Without a reported adjustment strategy or prespecified testing hierarchy, those results are more appropriately treated as exploratory and interpreted in conjunction with their estimates and confidence intervals.

The primary analysis population is described as participants with available analyzable baseline and 6-month treadmill test results. This gives a definition of who contributed to the primary outcome analysis, but the registry record does not report how unavailable or non-analyzable results were handled, why they were unavailable, or whether any imputation was used. The registry record also does not report a detailed missing-data analysis or sensitivity analyses addressing missing outcomes.

Reported sample sizes vary across outcome summaries. The registry record does not provide enough information to determine the reasons for those differences or their implications for possible bias. The original sample-size justification, interim-analysis plan, and complete analysis-population definitions are not reported in the registry record. These omissions limit assessment of whether all planned analyses were reported and how robust the results are to alternative assumptions.

16. Safety Results

The registry reports serious adverse events as affected participants divided by participants at risk.

ArmParticipants with serious adverse eventsParticipants at riskPercentage
ALDHbr44010.0%
Placebo (Vehicle)84219.0%
Participants with at least one serious adverse event
Serious adverse events by armALDHbr10.0%Placebo (Vehicle)19.0%% of participants with at least one serious adverse event

Other (non-serious) adverse events

Participants with at least one non-serious event at or above the registry's 5% reporting threshold.

ArmParticipants affected of at risk
ALDHbr1 of 40
Placebo (Vehicle)6 of 42

Most frequent serious adverse event terms

Event termOrgan systemALDHbrPlacebo (Vehicle)
Acute AnemiaBlood and lymphatic system disorders0 of 401 of 42
Coronary artery diseaseCardiac disorders1 of 400 of 42
Anginal discomfort (symptomatic)Cardiac disorders0 of 401 of 42
Duodenal ulcerGastrointestinal disorders0 of 401 of 42
Escherichia urinary tract infectionInfections and infestations1 of 400 of 42
Compression of fractured vertebraInjury, poisoning and procedural complications0 of 401 of 42
Post procedural hematoma (left popliteal)Injury, poisoning and procedural complications0 of 401 of 42
Motor vehicle accidentInjury, poisoning and procedural complications0 of 401 of 42
Bladder cancerNeoplasms benign, malignant and unspecified (incl cysts and polyps)0 of 401 of 42
COPD exacerbationRespiratory, thoracic and mediastinal disorders1 of 400 of 42

Most frequent non-serious adverse event terms

Event termOrgan systemALDHbrPlacebo (Vehicle)
Post operative hip painInjury, poisoning and procedural complications1 of 402 of 42
Facial paralysis (Bell's palsy)Nervous system disorders0 of 402 of 42
Chest painGeneral disorders0 of 402 of 42

Serious events with the highest arm-level rate: coronary artery disease (2.5%), escherichia urinary tract infection (2.5%), copd exacerbation (2.5%), ischemic limb pain (2.5%), acute anemia (2.4%).

Do not overextend the safety comparison. Serious-adverse-event counts are safety observations, not efficacy outcomes, and should not be combined with the primary result into a single benefit-risk number.

The registry reports serious adverse events among 4 of 40 participants at risk in the ALDHbr group and 8 of 42 participants at risk in the placebo group. Other adverse events are reported for 1 of 40 participants at risk in the ALDHbr group and 6 of 42 participants at risk in the placebo group. These are descriptive counts within the reported at-risk groups; they do not establish that an event was caused by the assigned intervention.

The serious-event terms listed include coronary artery disease, Escherichia urinary tract infection, COPD exacerbation, ischemic limb pain, acute anemia, and anginal discomfort (symptomatic). The registry gives percentages for these terms but does not identify their group-specific distribution in the record. The categories and counts should not be combined into a total, because the record does not clarify whether participants could contribute to more than one event category.

Death counts are not reported in the registry record. Adverse-event counts alone do not determine comparative safety: interpretation also depends on event definitions, timing, severity, attribution, follow-up, and completeness of reporting. Those details are not reported in the registry record.

17. What the Result Does, and Does Not, Mean

The primary result describes the difference in peak walking time observed between randomized groups in the registry’s analysis. The sponsor reports a mean difference of 0.9 minutes, with a 95% confidence interval from -0.6 to 2.5 minutes and p = 0.238. The result does not establish a clear between-group difference, but it also does not prove that the groups are equivalent or that no effect exists. The interval retains uncertainty about both direction and size.

Because the study was randomized and quadruple-masked, its design was intended to compare assigned groups while limiting some sources of bias. Those design features do not remove uncertainty caused by outcome variability, incomplete outcome availability, or limitations in reported methods. The primary result applies to the registry-defined analysis population with analyzable baseline and 6-month treadmill results; it should not automatically be generalized beyond the studied population and setting.

The outcome is a standardized treadmill measure of walking duration before claudication symptoms prevent continued walking. It does not directly measure all aspects of daily mobility, quality of life, blood flow, or long-term outcomes. Other listed outcomes may provide complementary information, but the secondary results do not convert an uncertain primary result into a definitive conclusion.

The adverse-event summaries describe events reported in the registry, but they do not establish causality or settle comparative safety. The registry record does not report death counts, complete event-attribution details, or the original sample-size rationale. The results should therefore be understood as the posted clinical and statistical findings, with the reported uncertainty and limitations, rather than as a general claim that the intervention is effective, ineffective, safe, or unsafe.

18. Why This Trial Matters Statistically

This trial illustrates why a point estimate should be read together with its uncertainty. The primary estimate favors a higher mean peak walking time in the ALDHbr group, but the sponsor’s confidence interval includes zero and extends in both directions. A positive estimate alone does not establish a reliable difference. The interval indicates that the data are compatible with a range of possible effects, including no difference.

The study also shows why the sponsor’s analysis and an unadjusted re-calculation need to be distinguished. The re-calculation from posted summaries offers a transparent comparison based on group means and variability, while the sponsor’s reported t-test is the trial’s own analysis. Their estimates and p-values are close in direction but not identical. Treating them as the same result would obscure that methodological distinction.

Secondary measures can help explore whether an outcome pattern extends beyond the primary endpoint, but multiple outcomes also create multiplicity concerns. The registry does not report a multiplicity adjustment plan, so secondary findings warrant restraint. This is a general statistical lesson: a larger set of analyses can generate useful questions, while making isolated results less persuasive unless the analysis strategy is clear.

Finally, the sample-size illustrations demonstrate the dependence of planning on the effect one hopes to detect. A smaller target effect requires more participants under the stated planning assumptions. Such illustrations are not evidence of the trial’s achieved power and cannot replace the original design justification, which is not reported in the registry record.

19. Limitations

The registry record gives a primary analysis population defined by available analyzable treadmill tests at baseline and 6 months, but does not explain the handling or reasons for unavailable or non-analyzable results. It also does not report imputation methods or sensitivity analyses for missing data. As a result, the possible influence of missing outcome information cannot be assessed from the record.

The record does not report the original sample-size justification, detailed allocation procedures, or a full statistical analysis plan. It also does not report whether there were interim analyses, how multiplicity was handled, or whether the primary analysis included adjustments beyond the stated t-test. These gaps limit assessment of prespecification and of the analysis choices behind the posted result.

The primary outcome is a treadmill-based measure, so it captures performance under standardized test conditions rather than every aspect of walking in daily life. The registry does not report a clinically meaningful threshold for interpreting peak walking time. Although several secondary outcomes are listed, detailed results are not reported in the registry record for every listed measure. Their absence from the detailed record means they cannot be used to corroborate or qualify the primary estimate.

The safety information is also limited. The registry reports serious and other adverse-event counts, but the record does not provide the full context needed to assess attribution, timing, recurrence, or completeness. Death counts are not reported in the registry record. These limitations do not invalidate the posted results, but they constrain how broadly and confidently they can be interpreted.

20. Related Tutorials

21. Related Statistical Calculators

22. Sources

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23. Record Summary

The registry identifies a completed, randomized, quadruple-masked, parallel-group phase 2 trial comparing intramuscular ALD-301 with placebo (vehicle) in participants with peripheral artery disease and intermittent claudication. Enrollment was 82. The primary endpoint was peak walking time assessed at baseline and 6 months, in participants with analyzable treadmill results at both assessments.

The sponsor’s primary analysis reported a net mean difference of 0.9 minutes, with a 95% confidence interval from -0.6 to 2.5 minutes and p = 0.238. The interval includes zero, leaving uncertainty about the direction and size of the difference. The registry also reports secondary physiological and patient-reported outcomes and adverse-event counts, but important details about multiplicity, missing data, the original sample-size rationale, and some outcome analyses are not reported in the registry record.

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