← Clinical Trials
Endometrial Neoplasms Phase 3 Time-to-Event Analysis NCT03884101

Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) Plus Lenvatinib (E7080/MK-7902) Versus Chemotherapy for Endometrial Carcinoma (ENGOT-en9 / MK-7902-001): Complete Statistical Analysis

This analysis examines the primary progression-free survival comparison in the randomized LEAP-001 trial of lenvatinib plus pembrolizumab versus paclitaxel plus carboplatin. It also explains the posted response-rate results, safety counts, confidence intervals, and planning illustrations.

Trial start: 2019-04-11  ·  Enrollment: 842  ·  Sponsor: Merck Sharp & Dohme LLC
Scope of this record

This page provides an independent statistical analysis and educational interpretation of publicly reported results. ClinicalTrials.gov provides the official trial registry record. Numerical trial results on this page are restricted to the results posted in the ClinicalTrials.gov record; calculations added by Clinical Biostats are labelled as such.

1. Trial at a Glance

This page covers the registry results for Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) Plus Lenvatinib (E7080/MK-7902) Versus Chemotherapy for Endometrial Carcinoma (ENGOT-en9 / MK-7902-001) (NCT03884101), a randomized phase 3 study. The primary outcome is Progression-free Survival (PFS) Based on Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors Version 1.1 (RECIST 1.1) as Assessed by Blinded Independent Central Review (BICR) in Mismatch Repair Proficient (pMMR) Participants.

842
Enrollment
Phase 3
2
Arms
In the primary outcome
1.01
Hazard ratio
Lenvatinib + Pembrolizumab vs Paclitaxel
0.83–1.24
95% CI
Two-sided
FeatureRegistry value
ClinicalTrials.gov identifierNCT03884101
PhasePhase 3
ConditionEndometrial Neoplasms
AllocationRandomized
Design modelParallel
MaskingNone (open label)
Enrollment842
Arms in the primary outcome2
Lead sponsorMerck Sharp & Dohme LLC
Results postedYes

2. Clinical Question

Population

Female participants with Stage III, IV, or recurrent endometrial carcinoma were eligible for the trial. The primary endpoint analysis was restricted to randomized participants with mismatch repair proficient (pMMR) tumors. The registry record describes participants as analyzed according to the treatment arm to which they were randomized.

Intervention

Participants assigned to the combination received lenvatinib daily and pembrolizumab at the start of each 3-week treatment cycle. The registry describes the primary PFS analysis for this randomized treatment group.

Comparator

The comparison group received paclitaxel and carboplatin at the start of each 3-week treatment cycle. The trial was open-label, so treatment assignment was not masked to participants or study personnel; the primary endpoint, however, was assessed by blinded independent central review.

Primary question

The primary question was whether PFS differed between the randomized groups among pMMR participants. PFS was measured from randomization until documented disease progression under RECIST 1.1, as assessed by blinded independent central review, or death from any cause, whichever came first. The registry also states an overall-survival hypothesis, but the primary endpoint analyzed in these results is PFS.

3. Trial Design

LEAP-001 (NCT03884101) was a Phase 3, randomized, open-label, parallel-group study comparing lenvatinib plus pembrolizumab with paclitaxel plus carboplatin as first-line treatment for advanced or recurrent endometrial carcinoma. The registry lists an enrollment of 842 participants and a completed study status. The recorded study start was 2019-04-11, and primary completion was 2023-10-02.

The primary analysis concerned PFS in pMMR participants. The registry lists 320 participants in the lenvatinib plus pembrolizumab group and 322 in the paclitaxel plus carboplatin group for this endpoint. Participants were analyzed according to their randomized assignment. This preserves the randomized comparison as the basis for the treatment-group estimate, even when treatment received later differs from assignment.

The study was not masked. That matters when outcomes or decisions can be influenced by knowledge of treatment assignment. For the primary endpoint, the registry specifies blinded independent central review of RECIST 1.1 disease assessments. This provides an assessment process separate from the treating team, although it does not make the entire trial blinded.

The stated study purpose also included comparing overall survival, and the registry lists secondary outcomes involving response, quality of life, and adverse events. The registry record does not report the original sample-size justification, the full analysis plan, or details of any interim analyses. Amendment 7 allowed eligible participants completing the study to transition to an extension study, if available, for continued treatment with one or both study drugs.

4. Participant Flow and Accounting

The registry reports how participants moved through each stage of the study. All counts below are exactly as posted; missing counts are not inferred from other stages.

Before assignment: Per protocol, response/progression or adverse events (AEs) that occurred during the second course were not counted towards efficacy outcome measures or safety outcome measures, respectively.

Overall Study

StageLenvatinib + PembrolizumabPaclitaxel + Carboplatin
STARTED420422
Treated420411
Received a Second Course of Pembrolizumab170
COMPLETED00
NOT COMPLETED420422

Reasons for not completing this period:

ReasonLenvatinib + PembrolizumabPaclitaxel + Carboplatin
Death234248
Lost to Follow-up11
Physician Decision98126
Sponsor Decision7932
Withdrawal by Subject815

Analysis population for the primary outcome, as defined in the registry: All randomized pMMR participants were analyzed according to the treatment arm to which they were randomized.

5. Baseline Characteristics

The table reproduces the baseline characteristics posted in the registry, which describe the participants analysed at baseline and help show whether the randomized groups were comparable.

CharacteristicUnitLenvatinib + PembrolizumabPaclitaxel + CarboplatinTotal
Participants analysed420422842
Age, ContinuousYears62.5 (SD 10.1)64.0 (SD 9.1)63.3 (SD 9.7)
Sex: Female, Male: FemaleParticipants420422842
Sex: Female, Male: MaleParticipants000
Ethnicity (NIH/OMB): Hispanic or LatinoParticipants6467131
Ethnicity (NIH/OMB): Not Hispanic or LatinoParticipants347343690
Ethnicity (NIH/OMB): Unknown or Not ReportedParticipants91221
Race (NIH/OMB): American Indian or Alaska NativeParticipants000
Race (NIH/OMB): AsianParticipants114102216
Race (NIH/OMB): Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific IslanderParticipants011
Race (NIH/OMB): Black or African AmericanParticipants101424
Race (NIH/OMB): WhiteParticipants288300588
Race (NIH/OMB): More than one raceParticipants8513
Race (NIH/OMB): Unknown or Not ReportedParticipants000
Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) Performance Status: ECOG=0Participants250240490
Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) Performance Status: ECOG=1Participants170182352
Prior Chemotherapy and/or Chemoradiation: YesParticipants7468142
Prior Chemotherapy and/or Chemoradiation: NoParticipants346354700
Mismatch Repair (MMR) Status: dMMRParticipants100100200
Mismatch Repair (MMR) Status: pMMRParticipants320322642

6. Primary Endpoint

The registry lists the primary outcome as Progression-free Survival (PFS) Based on Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors Version 1.1 (RECIST 1.1) as Assessed by Blinded Independent Central Review (BICR) in Mismatch Repair Proficient (pMMR) Participants, measured over Up to approximately 44 months.

ElementRegistry entry
Result typeMedian
Measure of spread95% Confidence Interval
UnitMonths
Endpoint classificationTime-to-Event Analysis

The primary endpoint was PFS in pMMR participants. It measures the time from randomization to the first documented progression or death from any cause, whichever occurred first. Progression was assessed under RECIST 1.1 by blinded independent central review. Under the registry definition, progression included at least a 20% increase in the sum of target-lesion diameters, with an absolute increase of at least 5 mm, or the appearance of one or more new lesions.

Time-to-event endpoints such as PFS retain information about when an event occurs, rather than reducing follow-up to a simple count of participants with an event. A median summarizes the time by which half of the observed group has experienced the endpoint, subject to the survival-analysis method and follow-up available. Comparing medians alone does not fully describe the relative event pattern over follow-up, which is why the registry also reports a hazard ratio.

PFS is used in oncology trials because progression and death are clinically meaningful events that can be observed during follow-up. It is not the same as overall survival: the primary PFS definition includes documented progression as well as death, while overall survival concerns death. The reported PFS timeframe is up to approximately 44 months. The registry record does not report further details about assessment schedules or handling of particular intercurrent events.

7. Results Posted in the Registry

Hazard ratio: Lenvatinib + Pembrolizumab vs Paclitaxel + Carboplatin

1.01

95% CI: 0.83 to 1.24

As reported in the registry

Treatment effect versus the control arm
Forest plot of hazard ratio (as reported) vs control (95% CI)Lenvatinib + Pembrolizumab vs…0.800.880.971.061.171.28hazard ratio (as reported) vs control (95% CI)

8. Secondary Efficacy Endpoints

The registry also posts results for secondary outcomes. For each outcome below, the endpoint type, the test applied to the posted summary statistics, the result and its interpretation are given in turn. Secondary endpoints are usually not adjusted for multiple testing, so they support rather than confirm the primary finding.

Secondary outcomeTypeEffect measureEstimate (95% CI)Planning size, 80% power
Objective Response Rate (ORR) Based on RECIST 1.1 as Assessed by BICR in pMMR ParticipantsBinary EndpointRisk difference+4.3 pts (-3.5 to 12.0)2,152 per arm
ORR Based on RECIST 1.1 as Assessed by BICR in All Randomized ParticipantsBinary EndpointRisk difference+0.0 pts (-6.7 to 6.8)46,782,955 per arm

Objective Response Rate (ORR) Based on RECIST 1.1 as Assessed by BICR in pMMR Participants

Treatment effect versus the control arm
Forest plot of risk difference (percentage points) vs control (95% CI)Paclitaxel + Carboplatin-4.74-1.142.466.069.6613risk difference (percentage points) vs control (95% CI)

ORR Based on RECIST 1.1 as Assessed by BICR in All Randomized Participants

Treatment effect versus the control arm
Forest plot of risk difference (percentage points) vs control (95% CI)Paclitaxel + Carboplatin-7.79-4.66-1.531.594.727.84risk difference (percentage points) vs control (95% CI)

The registry lists secondary outcomes spanning objective response, quality of life, and adverse events. Numerical response-rate results are posted for pMMR participants and for all randomized participants. They provide a broader descriptive view of tumor response, but they do not supersede the primary PFS comparison, which concerns time to progression or death in the pMMR population. Response and PFS measure different aspects of outcome and need not move in parallel.

The available secondary results do not support a single comprehensive conclusion across all listed outcomes. In particular, the registry record lists quality-of-life outcomes but does not include numerical results for them in the results. Safety outcomes have their own denominators and definitions and should be interpreted separately. A finding on one secondary outcome cannot establish a consistent pattern across response, quality of life, and safety.

Secondary analyses commonly have less evidential weight than the primary analysis when many outcomes or comparisons are examined. In general, conducting multiple tests increases the chance that at least one result appears notable by chance. Adjustments or a prespecified testing hierarchy can address this, but the registry record does not report a multiplicity procedure for the outcomes discussed. Therefore, secondary p-values should be treated as exploratory unless the analysis plan establishes otherwise.

The registry also includes unadjusted recalculations from summary statistics. Those are not replacements for the sponsor’s stratified response analyses and should not be used to claim confirmation of the primary time-to-event result. The overall secondary evidence is best read as additional context, with attention to population, endpoint definition, analysis method, and the absence of reported results for some listed outcomes.

Secondary outcomes registered for this trial, for reference (only those above were recalculated):

9. Statistical Interpretation

Clinical Biostats interpretation

Among pMMR participants, the reported median PFS was 9.6 months for lenvatinib plus pembrolizumab, with a 95% confidence interval of 8.2 to 11.9 months. For paclitaxel plus carboplatin, the median was 10.2 months, with a 95% confidence interval of 8.4 to 10.4 months. These medians are descriptive summaries of the observed time-to-event distributions; they do not, by themselves, establish a difference between treatments.

The sponsor-reported hazard ratio was 1.01, with a 95% confidence interval of 0.83 to 1.24. The estimate is close to 1, while the confidence interval includes 1 and allows values on either side. In general, a hazard ratio of 1 represents equal instantaneous event rates under the model’s comparison; values above or below 1 indicate a relative difference in the direction defined by the group ordering. The registry labels the comparison as lenvatinib plus pembrolizumab versus paclitaxel plus carboplatin. The result does not provide persuasive evidence of a difference in PFS in this analysis, while the interval also shows that a range of relative effects remains compatible with the data.

The registry reports a log-rank analysis for the hazard ratio. This is the sponsor’s reported inferential result for the primary comparison; a separate recalculated time-to-event estimate is not used. The p-value is one element of that analysis, not a measure of the size or clinical importance of an effect. The estimate and its confidence interval are more informative about direction and precision than a binary conclusion based only on a significance threshold.

The pMMR endpoint population is narrower than the full enrollment. The primary endpoint counts listed for the groups are 320 and 322, whereas safety records use different numbers at risk. Those totals refer to distinct analyses and should not be treated as interchangeable. The trial’s randomized design supports a treatment-group comparison, but open-label conduct, endpoint assessment procedures, follow-up, and the analysis population all matter when interpreting the result.

The posted response-rate results offer context but do not replace the primary PFS analysis. They concern tumor response at a point in time and are secondary outcomes. The registry also lists quality-of-life and safety outcomes, but the available numerical results do not establish a comprehensive pattern across all those domains. No conclusion about overall survival can be drawn from the PFS estimate alone.

10. Statistical Methods Explained

For PFS, the registry reports medians with 95% confidence intervals and a hazard ratio from a log-rank analysis. These quantities describe different aspects of the time-to-event data. The median locates a point in each group’s event-time distribution. The hazard ratio summarizes the relative rate of experiencing the event at a given time, under the assumptions of the analysis. Neither quantity is a direct percentage reduction in risk, and the hazard ratio should not be interpreted as a comparison of the two medians.

What does a hazard ratio summarize?

In general, a hazard is the event rate among participants who have not yet experienced the event, considered over follow-up. A hazard ratio compares those rates between groups. A value of 1 corresponds to no relative difference under the model; values below or above 1 indicate a relative difference in opposite directions, according to the stated group order. The reported estimate is 1.01. Its 95% confidence interval, 0.83 to 1.24, includes 1, so the data are compatible with no relative difference as well as with effects in either direction within the interval.

A hazard ratio is not automatically a constant biological or clinical effect throughout follow-up. Its interpretation depends on the time-to-event analysis and assumptions about how relative hazards behave. The registry record identifies the log-rank method but does not report enough detail to assess all modeling choices, proportional-hazards diagnostics, or sensitivity analyses.

What does the log-rank method do?

In general, the log-rank method compares the observed timing of events with the timing expected under a no-difference hypothesis, accounting for the fact that participants can have different lengths of follow-up. Participants without a recorded event by their last follow-up are censored rather than treated as if an event had occurred. This method uses the sequence of events over time, whereas a comparison of medians alone does not use all event-time information. The registry names the method but does not report detailed censoring rules or all implementation details.

Why report medians and confidence intervals?

A median offers a recognizable summary of event timing. The accompanying confidence interval expresses statistical uncertainty around that estimate. In general, a confidence interval is a range produced by a method that, under its assumptions, would cover the underlying parameter at the stated rate in repeated use. It is not a guarantee that the true value lies within the particular interval, nor does it describe the range of individual participants’ outcomes.

The group medians are close in magnitude, and the reported confidence intervals overlap. Overlap is not itself a formal test of the treatment comparison. The hazard ratio and its own confidence interval provide the registry’s direct relative comparison. A reader should avoid inferring statistical significance by visually comparing separate group intervals; the uncertainty of a between-group contrast is evaluated using the contrast’s own analysis.

How should the response-rate analyses be understood?

Objective response rate is a binary outcome: a participant is classified as having or not having a response under the stated response criteria. The registry reports response percentages and 95% confidence intervals for pMMR participants and for all randomized participants. It also lists sponsor analyses using a stratified Miettinen & Nurminen method for differences in percentage. That method estimates a difference between group response proportions while accounting for the stated stratification approach. The registry does not give further details about the strata in the available record.

Unadjusted recalculations based on posted summary statistics are not the same analysis as the sponsor’s stratified method. Differences between their estimates or p-values can arise from the method and its assumptions, not necessarily from an error. The recalculated values should be read as simple, unadjusted comparisons; the sponsor’s reported analyses are the trial’s official analyses. They should not be combined as though they were identical estimates from one model.

Why can over-dispersion matter?

In general, over-dispersion occurs when observed variability is greater than a model assumes. It can make standard errors too small if the model fails to account for that extra variability, resulting in confidence intervals that are too narrow and tests that are too optimistic. This is a general statistical issue, not a specific finding established by this registry record. The record does not report whether over-dispersion was assessed for any endpoint or whether a correction was used.

The study’s randomized assignment and analysis of participants according to assigned group are relevant to interpretation. Randomization aims to make groups comparable at assignment, while an intention-to-treat style analysis retains that assignment-based comparison. However, the registry record does not provide the full statistical analysis plan, handling of missing endpoint data, details of protocol deviations, or a complete account of all sensitivity analyses. Those omissions limit independent evaluation of analytic choices.

11. Confidence Intervals and Precision

The primary PFS estimate is accompanied by a 95% confidence interval for each group median and for the hazard ratio. The interval around the lenvatinib plus pembrolizumab median is 8.2 to 11.9 months; the interval around the chemotherapy median is 8.4 to 10.4 months. For the hazard ratio, the interval is 0.83 to 1.24. The values within these intervals are estimates compatible with the data and method at the stated confidence level; they are not a prediction interval for individual outcomes.

The hazard-ratio interval includes 1. That makes the data compatible with no relative difference, as well as with a range of relative differences in either direction. The estimate of 1.01 lies close to 1, but proximity to 1 should not be confused with proof that the treatments have identical effects. The interval is the more useful guide to the precision of the relative estimate.

Confidence intervals for each group’s median do not directly answer the same question as the confidence interval for the between-group hazard ratio. Nor does overlap between separate intervals serve as a substitute for the formal comparison. The registry reports the hazard-ratio interval for the primary comparison, which should guide interpretation of the relative result.

General explanation: wider confidence intervals indicate greater uncertainty about the parameter, while narrower intervals indicate greater precision under the analysis assumptions. Precision depends on factors such as the amount of information and the event pattern. The registry record does not provide enough information to attribute the observed interval width to particular causes or to evaluate all assumptions underlying the intervals.

12. Planning a Similar Trial: Sample Size

This is a planning illustration, not a re-evaluation of the original trial. It asks: if a new study wanted to detect a difference like the one observed, or a smaller one, how large would it need to be? It is deliberately not “observed power” of the finished trial, which is not a meaningful quantity.

Effect to detect (log scale)Hazard ratioEvents, 80% powerEvents, 90% power
100% of the observed effect1.01317,098424,504
75% of the observed effect1.01563,729754,673
50% of the observed effect1.001,268,3901,698,014
Sample size needed versus the size of the effect to detect
Sample size needed versus size of effect to detect200,000500,0001,000,0002,000,0005,000,00040%60%80%100%80% power90% powersize of effect to detect, as % of the effect observed (log vertical scale: events required (total))
Treat these figures cautiously. The observed difference is imprecise: its confidence interval includes no difference at all. A sample size built on a noisy estimate can be far too small or too large, so the smaller-effect rows are the more cautious guide.
Method and assumptions. Two-sided α = 0.05, 1:1 allocation, Schoenfeld approximation for the log-rank test or Cox model. The answer is the total number of events, not participants; the number of participants depends on how quickly events accrue. Calculated for the comparison: Lenvatinib + Pembrolizumab vs Paclitaxel + Carboplatin.

The planning illustrations show the number of total events for the time-to-event comparison, not participants per arm. Other endpoint illustrations use participants per arm. The rows vary the planning effect from 100% of the observed effect to 75% and 50% of that effect. Smaller effects require more information to detect, so the illustrations show larger required totals as the effect to detect becomes smaller.

The stated planning assumptions are a two-sided significance level of 0.05, equal allocation between the two arms, and a normal approximation. The target effect is the stated fraction of the observed effect. For the time-to-event endpoint, event totals are based on the Schoenfeld method. The registry record does not report the original trial’s own design assumptions or sample-size justification, so these calculations should not be mistaken for the basis on which the trial was planned.

The 80% power column describes the number of events or participants the illustration estimates would be needed for an 80% chance of detecting the chosen effect under the assumptions, if that effect were real. The 90% power column gives the corresponding requirement for a higher chance of detection. These are planning concepts, not probabilities that the observed result is true. The values are sensitive to the assumed effect size and method.

These figures are planning illustrations based on the observed effect, not observed power. They do not measure the probability that the trial’s result is correct, and they do not change the interpretation of the confidence interval or sponsor-reported analysis.

13. How the Sample Size Is Derived

Power is the probability that a study of a given size rejects the null hypothesis when a specific true effect exists. It depends on four things: the effect to detect, the variability of the outcome, the significance level (here a two-sided α of 0.05, so z1−α/2 = 1.960) and the desired power (z1−β = 0.842 for 80% and 1.282 for 90%).

Formula

d = 4 (z1−α/2 + z1−β)2 / [ln(HR)]2

d is the total number of events needed (Schoenfeld's formula) with 1:1 allocation and proportional hazards.

Worked calculation for this trial

  1. Hazard ratio HR = 1.010, so ln(HR) = 0.0100.
  2. d = 4 × (1.96 + 0.842)2 / [ln(1.010)]2 = 317,097.4, rounded up to 317,098 events in total for 80% power.

The smaller-effect rows in the table above repeat the same calculation with the effect multiplied by 0.75 and 0.5 (for ratios, applied to the logarithm of the ratio).

R code

alpha <- 0.05
z_a   <- qnorm(1 - alpha / 2)          # two-sided
hr <- 1.01                              # observed hazard ratio
events_needed <- function(power, frac = 1) ceiling(round(4 * (z_a + qnorm(power))^2 / log(hr^frac)^2, 6))   # Schoenfeld, 1:1 allocation
for (f in c(1, 0.75, 0.5))
  cat(sprintf("%3.0f%% of observed effect: events = %s (80%% power), %s (90%% power)\n", 100 * f,
              format(events_needed(0.80, f), big.mark = ","), format(events_needed(0.90, f), big.mark = ",")))

# Simulation: given d total events under proportional hazards, events in the treatment arm are Binomial(d, hr / (1 + hr)).
# The score (log-rank type) statistic is (D1 - d / 2) / sqrt(d / 4).
set.seed(3884101)
d    <- events_needed(0.80)
reps <- 20000
D1 <- rbinom(reps, d, hr / (1 + hr))
z  <- (D1 - d / 2) / sqrt(d / 4)
cat(sprintf("Simulated power with %s events: %.3f (%d replicates)\n", format(d, big.mark = ","), mean(abs(z) > z_a), reps))

Output from running the code

100% of observed effect: events = 317,098 (80% power), 424,504 (90% power)
 75% of observed effect: events = 563,729 (80% power), 754,673 (90% power)
 50% of observed effect: events = 1,268,390 (80% power), 1,698,014 (90% power)
Simulated power with 317,098 events: 0.799 (20000 replicates)

The simulation uses the fact that, with d events in total and proportional hazards, the number of events in the treatment arm is binomial. It is an approximation that conditions on the total number of events, and it should land close to the target power.

14. Analyses Reported by the Sponsor

MethodEstimate95% CIP-value
Log RankHazard Ratio (HR) 1.010.83 to 1.240.555

The sponsor’s primary analysis reports a hazard ratio of 1.01 with a 95% confidence interval of 0.83 to 1.24, using a log-rank method. The primary time-to-event interpretation relies on this reported analysis; no separate recalculated hazard ratio is presented. The reported group medians and their intervals are descriptive summaries and do not replace the sponsor’s comparative analysis.

For the response-rate outcomes, the sponsor reports stratified Miettinen & Nurminen analyses of the difference in percentage. The unadjusted recalculations use the posted summary counts and do not reproduce that stratified analysis. They are useful as a transparent, simple comparison, but their estimates and p-values need not match the sponsor’s results. The record does not report enough detail to reconstruct the full stratified analysis independently.

There is no identified discrepancy flag for the primary analysis. Even so, the distinct methods should be kept distinct: sponsor-reported results describe the trial’s stated analysis, while recalculated results are unadjusted calculations from summary statistics. Neither should be presented as if it came from the other method. The registry record does not report the complete statistical analysis plan or additional detail needed to resolve every methodological difference.

15. Multiplicity, Missing Data and Analysis Populations

The registry lists a primary PFS endpoint and multiple secondary outcomes, including response, quality of life, and adverse events. Testing several outcomes creates a multiplicity issue: if each is evaluated independently, the chance of at least one apparently unusual result can increase. In general, a prespecified testing hierarchy, adjustment procedure, or clear exploratory designation helps readers understand how to interpret a family of tests.

The registry record does not report a multiplicity adjustment or a complete testing hierarchy for the listed outcomes. It is therefore not possible to determine from this record alone whether the secondary analyses were confirmatory, how error rates were controlled, or whether testing of one outcome depended on results for another. Secondary results should not be treated as equivalent in evidential status to the primary endpoint without that context.

The primary PFS population is identified as randomized pMMR participants analyzed according to randomized treatment arm. The registry also reports response outcomes for pMMR participants and for all randomized participants. Those are different analysis populations and should be kept separate when comparing results. The safety records use still other denominators, so counts from safety summaries cannot be substituted for the endpoint populations.

The registry record does not report full details of missing-data handling, censoring rules, endpoint assessment schedules, or sensitivity analyses for the primary endpoint. It also does not report a complete account of participants excluded from each analysis or the reasons for any exclusions. These are relevant because incomplete follow-up or missing assessments can affect time-to-event and response analyses. The randomized, assignment-based approach is stated for the primary endpoint, but it does not answer every question about missing observations or protocol deviations.

These omissions do not invalidate the posted estimates; they define what can be assessed from the registry record. Independent evaluation of multiplicity, missingness, and analysis populations would require the full protocol and statistical analysis plan, which are not reported in the registry record.

16. Safety Results

The registry reports serious adverse events as affected participants divided by participants at risk.

ArmParticipants with serious adverse eventsParticipants at riskPercentage
First Course: Lenvatinib + Pembrolizumab23042054.8%
Paclitaxel + Carboplatin8441120.4%
Second Course: Lenvatinib + Pembrolizumab31717.6%
Participants with at least one serious adverse event
Serious adverse events by armFirst Course: Lenvatinib + Pe…54.8%Paclitaxel + Carboplatin20.4%Second Course: Lenvatinib + P…17.6%% of participants with at least one serious adverse event

Deaths

ArmDeaths (participants affected of at risk)
First Course: Lenvatinib + Pembrolizumab233 of 420
Paclitaxel + Carboplatin253 of 422
Second Course: Lenvatinib + Pembrolizumab3 of 17

Other (non-serious) adverse events

Participants with at least one non-serious event at or above the registry's 5% reporting threshold.

ArmParticipants affected of at risk
First Course: Lenvatinib + Pembrolizumab416 of 420
Paclitaxel + Carboplatin397 of 411
Second Course: Lenvatinib + Pembrolizumab15 of 17

Most frequent serious adverse event terms

Event termOrgan systemFirst Course: Lenvatinib + PembrolizumabPaclitaxel + CarboplatinSecond Course: Lenvatinib + Pembrolizumab
DiarrhoeaGastrointestinal disorders11 of 4202 of 4110 of 17
Urinary tract infectionInfections and infestations9 of 4203 of 4111 of 17
AnaemiaBlood and lymphatic system disorders1 of 4209 of 4110 of 17
Abdominal painGastrointestinal disorders6 of 4204 of 4110 of 17
ColitisGastrointestinal disorders9 of 4201 of 4110 of 17
HyponatraemiaMetabolism and nutrition disorders6 of 4204 of 4110 of 17
Pulmonary embolismRespiratory, thoracic and mediastinal disorders7 of 4203 of 4110 of 17
HypertensionVascular disorders10 of 4200 of 4110 of 17
PneumonitisRespiratory, thoracic and mediastinal disorders9 of 4200 of 4110 of 17
DehydrationMetabolism and nutrition disorders7 of 4201 of 4110 of 17

Most frequent non-serious adverse event terms

Event termOrgan systemFirst Course: Lenvatinib + PembrolizumabPaclitaxel + CarboplatinSecond Course: Lenvatinib + Pembrolizumab
HypertensionVascular disorders288 of 42082 of 4112 of 17
NauseaGastrointestinal disorders159 of 420173 of 4111 of 17
DiarrhoeaGastrointestinal disorders214 of 42097 of 4112 of 17
AnaemiaBlood and lymphatic system disorders95 of 420209 of 4114 of 17
HypothyroidismEndocrine disorders261 of 42010 of 4113 of 17
AlopeciaSkin and subcutaneous tissue disorders47 of 420220 of 4110 of 17
FatigueGeneral disorders145 of 420118 of 4111 of 17
ArthralgiaMusculoskeletal and connective tissue disorders132 of 42097 of 4110 of 17
Decreased appetiteMetabolism and nutrition disorders144 of 42082 of 4110 of 17
ConstipationGastrointestinal disorders105 of 420109 of 4111 of 17

Serious events with the highest arm-level rate: intestinal obstruction (5.9%), intra-abdominal haemorrhage (5.9%), diverticulitis (5.9%), urinary tract infection (5.9%), hypokalaemia (5.9%).

Do not overextend the safety comparison. Serious-adverse-event counts are safety observations, not efficacy outcomes, and should not be combined with the primary result into a single benefit-risk number.

The safety records report serious adverse events and other adverse events separately, with denominators that differ from the primary PFS population. For the first-course lenvatinib plus pembrolizumab group, 230 of 420 participants at risk experienced a serious adverse event, and 416 of 420 experienced another adverse event. For paclitaxel plus carboplatin, the corresponding figures were 84 of 411 for serious adverse events and 397 of 411 for other adverse events. The registry also lists a second-course lenvatinib plus pembrolizumab group, with 3 of 17 participants experiencing a serious adverse event and 15 of 17 experiencing another adverse event.

These are counts of participants with events, not counts of distinct events, and the registry’s categories should not be combined. The listed serious-event terms include intestinal obstruction, intra-abdominal haemorrhage, diverticulitis, urinary tract infection, and hypokalaemia, each reported as 5.9%, as well as diarrhoea at 2.6%. The record does not clearly identify the treatment-group attribution for these listed term percentages in the information available.

The registry also records deaths of 233 in the first-course combination group and 253 in the chemotherapy group, with 3 in the second-course group. Those safety-record counts should not be interpreted as a treatment effect or as a substitute for the overall-survival analysis. Differences in group size, follow-up, exposure, and event definitions matter; the registry record does not provide all details needed to interpret these counts comparatively.

17. What the Result Does, and Does Not, Mean

The primary analysis estimates PFS in randomized pMMR participants. The reported medians were 9.6 months and 10.2 months, and the sponsor-reported hazard ratio was 1.01 with a 95% confidence interval of 0.83 to 1.24. Taken together, these results do not establish a clear difference in PFS between the randomized groups in this analysis. The interval remains compatible with a range of relative effects, so the result is not proof that the treatments are identical.

The result does not answer every question relevant to the trial. It concerns the specified pMMR population and endpoint, not necessarily every participant or every outcome. The registry also lists an overall-survival hypothesis, but the primary result is PFS. No conclusion about overall survival follows automatically from this estimate. Similarly, response rates, quality of life, and adverse events are distinct outcomes and require their own analyses.

The randomized design helps support a comparison between assigned treatment groups, and central blinded review was used for the primary disease assessments. The open-label design remains relevant to outcomes and processes that may be influenced by awareness of assignment. The available registry record does not give enough detail to assess every aspect of follow-up, missing data, multiplicity, or protocol implementation.

Statistical significance, clinical importance, and precision are separate questions. A p-value addresses compatibility with a specified null model under the analysis assumptions; a confidence interval communicates uncertainty about the estimated effect; and clinical importance requires context beyond either statistic. The posted numbers alone do not establish how a treatment choice should be made for an individual or group. They describe the trial’s comparative evidence for its stated endpoint and population.

18. Why This Trial Matters Statistically

LEAP-001 illustrates why a clinical-trial result should be read through its endpoint, population, and analysis method rather than through a single number. The primary endpoint is time-to-event PFS in pMMR participants, while the response-rate outcomes use binary classifications and broader analysis populations. These endpoints answer related but different questions, and their results cannot be treated as interchangeable.

The trial also illustrates the value of separating a group median from a comparative estimate. The medians describe event timing within each group; the hazard ratio summarizes the relative time-to-event comparison. The hazard-ratio confidence interval includes 1, so the primary result does not establish a clear relative difference. Reporting both the estimate and interval allows readers to consider direction and uncertainty rather than relying only on whether a test crosses a threshold.

Open-label conduct alongside blinded central review is another useful design distinction. Masking of participants and study personnel was absent, while the primary endpoint assessment was assigned to blinded independent review. These design features do not eliminate all potential sources of bias, but they clarify which part of the assessment process was blinded.

Finally, the registry separates efficacy, safety, and quality-of-life outcomes, but does not report every detail needed to evaluate multiplicity, missing data, or the complete analysis plan. That makes transparent interpretation important: the primary result can be described, while uncertainty about secondary testing and unreported analytic details should remain explicit. Planning illustrations based on observed effects are also distinct from the trial’s original design justification.

19. Limitations

The primary comparison is reported for pMMR participants, not for the full enrolled population. Although the registry also reports response results for all randomized participants, those are secondary outcomes and do not broaden the primary PFS inference. The endpoint sample sizes and safety denominators differ, which limits simple cross-comparison of counts.

The trial was open-label. Blinded independent central review was specified for the primary RECIST assessment, but the record does not report the full process for resolving assessment differences, assessment frequency, or all safeguards against bias. It also does not report detailed censoring and missing-data rules or sensitivity analyses, so the robustness of the primary estimate to alternative assumptions cannot be assessed from this record alone.

The registry record does not report the original sample-size justification, full statistical analysis plan, multiplicity strategy, or details of interim analyses. These omissions restrict evaluation of the intended error control, monitoring, and prespecified analysis choices. The planning illustrations based on the observed effect are not a substitute for the original design rationale.

Secondary outcomes span response, quality of life, and safety, but the registry does not provide numerical results for every listed outcome in the available record. The available response analyses use different methods for sponsor-reported and unadjusted recalculated results; these should not be conflated. Safety counts also require caution because exposure, denominators, follow-up, and event definitions are not fully characterized in the registry summaries. These limitations define what can be concluded from the posted record; they do not by themselves show that the reported analyses are incorrect.

20. Related Tutorials

21. Related Statistical Calculators

22. Sources

Continue through the Clinical Biostats statistical pathway

Use this trial's endpoint as a starting point for deeper study of effect measures, confidence intervals, and sample-size planning.

23. Record Summary

NCT03884101, LEAP-001, was a completed Phase 3 randomized, open-label, parallel-group study of lenvatinib plus pembrolizumab versus paclitaxel plus carboplatin for first-line treatment of advanced or recurrent endometrial carcinoma. Enrollment was 842. The primary endpoint was PFS assessed by blinded independent central review in randomized pMMR participants.

The reported median PFS was 9.6 months for lenvatinib plus pembrolizumab and 10.2 months for paclitaxel plus carboplatin. The sponsor-reported hazard ratio was 1.01, with a 95% confidence interval of 0.83 to 1.24. This estimate does not establish a clear PFS difference, while its interval allows uncertainty in both directions.

The registry also lists response, quality-of-life, and safety outcomes. The results should be interpreted with attention to endpoint populations, distinct analysis methods, open-label conduct, and details not reported in the registry record, including the full statistical plan and multiplicity approach.

Clinical Biostats