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Early Parkinson Disease Phase 2 Continuous Endpoint NCT03655236

PROSEEK: A Phase 2 Study In Early Parkinson's Disease Patients Evaluating The Safety And Efficacy Of Abl Tyrosine Kinase Inhibition Using K0706: Complete Statistical Analysis

The registry record describes a terminated Phase 2 randomized, placebo-controlled study of K0706 in early Parkinson's disease. The primary endpoint was change in MDS-UPDRS Part III score from baseline to Week 40; posted summaries include arm means and unadjusted comparisons.

Trial start: 2019-02-18  ·  Enrollment: 513  ·  Sponsor: Sun Pharma Advanced Research Company Limited
Scope of this record

This page provides an independent statistical analysis and educational interpretation of publicly reported results. ClinicalTrials.gov provides the official trial registry record. Numerical trial results on this page are restricted to the results posted in the ClinicalTrials.gov record; calculations added by Clinical Biostats are labelled as such.

1. Trial at a Glance

This page covers the registry results for PROSEEK: A Phase 2 Study In Early Parkinson's Disease Patients Evaluating The Safety And Efficacy Of Abl Tyrosine Kinase Inhibition Using K0706 (NCT03655236), a randomized phase 2 study. The primary outcome is Change From Baseline to Week 40 in the Movement Disorder Society - Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (MDS-UPDRS) Part III Total Score..

513
Enrollment
Phase 2
3
Arms
In the primary outcome
2.50
Mean difference
K0706, Low Dose
0.66–4.34
95% CI
Two-sided
FeatureRegistry value
ClinicalTrials.gov identifierNCT03655236
PhasePhase 2
ConditionEarly Parkinson Disease
AllocationRandomized
Design modelParallel
MaskingQuadruple
Enrollment513
Arms in the primary outcome3
Lead sponsorSun Pharma Advanced Research Company Limited
Results postedYes

2. Clinical Question

Population

Participants with early Parkinson's disease who were not receiving dopaminergic therapy in Part 1. The registry lists an efficacy analysis set for the primary endpoint.

Intervention

Two K0706 dose groups: low dose and high dose. Part 2 was an optional long-term extension for participants who completed Week 40 of Part 1.

Comparator

Placebo in the randomized Part 1 comparison. The registry lists no Part 2 placebo participants in the posted safety groups.

Primary question

How did mean change from baseline to Week 40 in MDS-UPDRS Part III total score compare between each K0706 dose group and placebo?

The primary endpoint concerns motor examination scores. The registry describes Part III as an 18-item measure with a score range of 0-132; it notes that 32 and below is mild and 59 and above is severe. The endpoint is a change score, so the comparison focuses on the difference in average change over the stated period, rather than on an isolated Week 40 score.

The posted arm summaries report mean changes of 1.5 for low-dose K0706, 1.0 for high-dose K0706, and -1.0 for placebo. The unadjusted mean differences versus placebo are 2.5 for low dose and 2.0 for high dose. These summaries describe the observed data; they do not by themselves establish a treatment effect. Interpretation also depends on uncertainty, analysis methods, missing-data handling, and whether the comparisons account for multiple endpoints or doses.

3. Trial Design

PROSEEK is listed as a Phase 2, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study with a parallel design and quadruple masking. The registry lists 513 participants enrolled. The listed study dates are 2019-02-18 for study start and 2024-04-08 for primary completion. Its current status is terminated.

The study had two parts. Part 1 assessed efficacy, safety, and tolerability of two K0706 doses compared with placebo in participants with early Parkinson's disease who were not receiving dopaminergic therapy. Part 2 was an optional long-term extension for participants who completed Week 40 of Part 1. The primary endpoint was measured at Week 40, while the registry also lists outcomes extending into Part 2.

The primary endpoint summaries are reported for the efficacy analysis set. Arm sizes in those summaries are 164 for low-dose K0706, 162 for high-dose K0706, and 161 for placebo. These arm counts align with the registry's overall enrollment, but the record does not describe the relationship between all enrolled participants and each analysis population in further detail.

Randomization and masking are design features intended to support fair comparisons and limit bias. General: random assignment can help balance known and unknown participant characteristics across groups, while masking can reduce the influence of expectations on treatment delivery, participant reporting, and assessment. The registry does not report the randomization method, allocation concealment details, or which parties are included in its quadruple-masking description.

The record does not report why the study was terminated, the original target enrollment, the protocol's sample-size justification, or the trial's planned statistical analysis. It also does not report a detailed account of the optional extension's eligibility and analysis procedures. These omissions limit conclusions about the reasons for the study's design choices and how the posted results relate to the original plan.

4. Participant Flow and Accounting

The registry reports how participants moved through each stage of the study. All counts below are exactly as posted; missing counts are not inferred from other stages.

Subject Disposition in Part 1 Period

StageK0706, Low DoseK0706, High DosePlacebo
STARTED171174168
COMPLETED11466120
NOT COMPLETED5710848

Reasons for not completing this period:

ReasonK0706, Low DoseK0706, High DosePlacebo
Adverse Event255512
Death100
Physician Decision032
Lost to Follow-up132
Parkinson's disease progression285
Poor compliance020
Protocol Violation110
Requires prohibited medication453
Study terminated by Sponsor12813
Withdrawal by Subject053
Withdrawal of consent11166
Other022

Subject Disposition in Part 2 Period

StageK0706, Low DoseK0706, High DosePlacebo
STARTED724077
COMPLETED362127
NOT COMPLETED361950

Reasons for not completing this period:

ReasonK0706, Low DoseK0706, High DosePlacebo
Adverse Event2512
Lost to Follow-up100
Parkinson's disease progression402
Protocol Violation104
Requires prohibited medication315
Study terminated by Sponsor181113
Withdrawal by Subject112
Withdrawal of consent5112
Other100

Analysis population for the primary outcome, as defined in the registry: Efficacy analysis set

5. Baseline Characteristics

The table reproduces the baseline characteristics posted in the registry, which describe the participants analysed at baseline and help show whether the randomized groups were comparable.

CharacteristicUnitK0706, Low DoseK0706, High DosePlaceboTotal
Participants analysed171174168513
Age, Continuous: Part 1years64.3 (SD 8.44)65.3 (SD 7.67)65.4 (SD 8.03)65.0 (SD 8.05)
Age, Continuous: Part 2years62.6 (SD 7.75)65.3 (SD 6.66)66.0 (SD 7.84)64.5 (SD 7.70)
Sex: Female, Male: Part 1 – FemaleParticipants617147179
Sex: Female, Male: Part 1 – MaleParticipants110103121334
Sex: Female, Male: Part 2 – FemaleParticipants23112054
Sex: Female, Male: Part 2 – MaleParticipants492957135
Ethnicity (NIH/OMB): Part 1 – Hispanic or LatinoParticipants16171548
Ethnicity (NIH/OMB): Part 1 – Not Hispanic or LatinoParticipants154156153463
Ethnicity (NIH/OMB): Part 1 – Unknown or Not ReportedParticipants1102
Ethnicity (NIH/OMB): Part 2 – Hispanic or LatinoParticipants82414
Ethnicity (NIH/OMB): Part 2 – Not Hispanic or LatinoParticipants643873175
Ethnicity (NIH/OMB): Part 2 – Unknown or Not ReportedParticipants0000
Race (NIH/OMB): Part 1 – American Indian or Alaska NativeParticipants0011
Race (NIH/OMB): Part 1 – AsianParticipants33292890
Race (NIH/OMB): Part 1 – Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific IslanderParticipants0000
Race (NIH/OMB): Part 1 – Black or African AmericanParticipants61310
Race (NIH/OMB): Part 1 – WhiteParticipants132144136412
Race (NIH/OMB): Part 1 – More than one raceParticipants0000
Race (NIH/OMB): Part 1 – Unknown or Not ReportedParticipants0000
Race (NIH/OMB): Part 2 – American Indian or Alaska NativeParticipants0011
Race (NIH/OMB): Part 2 – AsianParticipants1961338
Race (NIH/OMB): Part 2 – Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific IslanderParticipants0000
Race (NIH/OMB): Part 2 – Black or African AmericanParticipants1102
Race (NIH/OMB): Part 2 – WhiteParticipants523363148
Race (NIH/OMB): Part 2 – More than one raceParticipants0000
Race (NIH/OMB): Part 2 – Unknown or Not ReportedParticipants0000

6. Primary Endpoint

The registry lists the primary outcome as Change From Baseline to Week 40 in the Movement Disorder Society - Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (MDS-UPDRS) Part III Total Score., measured over Week 40.

ElementRegistry entry
Result typeMean
Measure of spreadStandard Deviation
Unitscore on a scale
Endpoint classificationContinuous Endpoint

The primary endpoint is change from baseline to Week 40 in the Movement Disorder Society - Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale Part III total score. Part III is the motor examination component. The registry describes it as containing 18 items, with a score range of 0-132, and gives severity context of 32 and below as mild and 59 and above as severe.

A change score represents how the measured score moved over the specified period. Comparing average change between a randomized treatment group and placebo can describe whether the groups' observed motor examination scores changed differently during Part 1. The scale provides a structured way to record motor examination findings, and a total score condenses multiple items into one endpoint for comparison.

General: continuous outcomes such as scores are commonly summarized by a mean and standard deviation. The mean describes the group's average change, while the standard deviation describes how dispersed individual scores are around that average. Neither statistic alone shows the full range of individual experiences.

The posted values are mean changes, not final scores, and the registry identifies the population as the efficacy analysis set. The record does not provide the scale's measurement properties, a threshold for a clinically important change, or additional details about the examination and scoring procedures. Therefore, the numerical contrast can be described statistically, but the record alone does not establish what size of change would be meaningful to participants or clinicians.

7. Results Posted in the Registry

Mean difference: K0706, Low Dose

2.50

95% CI: 0.66 to 4.34

Recalculated from the posted summary statistics

Primary outcome by arm, with 95% confidence intervals
Primary outcome by arm with 95% confidence intervals-2.8-1.5-0.30.92.13.4K0706, Low Dose (n=164)K0706, High Dose (n=162)Placebo (n=161)score on a scale (95% CI)
Treatment effect versus the control arm
Forest plot of mean difference vs control (95% CI)K0706, Low DoseK0706, High Dose-0.350.661.672.673.684.69mean difference vs control (95% CI)

8. Secondary Efficacy Endpoints

The registry also posts results for secondary outcomes. For each outcome below, the endpoint type, the test applied to the posted summary statistics, the result and its interpretation are given in turn. Secondary endpoints are usually not adjusted for multiple testing, so they support rather than confirm the primary finding.

Secondary outcomeTypeEffect measureEstimate (95% CI)Planning size, 80% power
To Determine if K0706 Delays the Initiation of Symptomatic Medications in ParticipantsBinary EndpointRisk difference+1.4 pts (-5.1 to 7.9)6,986 per arm
Change in Health Related Quality of Life as Measured by the European Quality of Life Questionnaire 5 Level VersionContinuous EndpointMean difference-0.03 (-0.05 to -0.00)241 per arm
Change in Clinician Global Impression SeverityContinuous EndpointMean difference0.00 (-0.17 to 0.17)n/a

To Determine if K0706 Delays the Initiation of Symptomatic Medications in Participants

Treatment effect versus the control arm
Forest plot of risk difference (percentage points) vs control (95% CI)K0706, Low DoseK0706, High Dose-20-14-7.82-1.904.029.93risk difference (percentage points) vs control (95% CI)

Change in Health Related Quality of Life as Measured by the European Quality of Life Questionnaire 5 Level Version

Treatment effect versus the control arm
Forest plot of mean difference vs control (95% CI)K0706, Low DoseK0706, High Dose-0.07-0.06-0.04-0.03-0.010.01mean difference vs control (95% CI)

Change in Clinician Global Impression Severity

Treatment effect versus the control arm
Forest plot of mean difference vs control (95% CI)K0706, Low DoseK0706, High Dose-0.43-0.30-0.17-0.040.090.22mean difference vs control (95% CI)

The registry lists secondary outcomes covering combined MDS-UPDRS Parts II and III change, initiation of symptomatic medication, health-related quality of life, clinician global impression of severity, autonomic symptoms, and serum K0706 concentration. Posted results are available for some of these outcomes, including comparisons for the medication-initiation measure, quality-of-life score, and clinician global impression. Other listed secondary outcomes do not have posted results in the record.

Across the reported outcomes, the numerical pattern is not uniform. Some unadjusted comparisons have intervals that exclude zero, while others do not. This range of findings is a reason to interpret secondary outcomes as a collection of supportive or exploratory observations rather than as a single consistent confirmation of the primary result. The secondary outcomes also measure different concepts, so their estimates are not direct replications of the motor examination endpoint.

Secondary outcomes can add context: a trial may measure function, quality of life, treatment initiation, or other domains alongside its primary measure. However, each additional test creates another opportunity for a result to appear unusual by chance. The registry does not report a multiplicity procedure or a prespecified hierarchy for these secondary tests. Their p-values are unadjusted, so they carry less evidential weight than results interpreted under a clearly defined testing strategy.

Some secondary results are participant counts, while others are continuous scores. These outcome types require different summaries and interpretations. The registry's descriptions identify the relevant timeframe, but it does not provide a complete analysis plan or detailed context for all measures. Therefore, the overall secondary pattern can be described as mixed and incomplete, but should not be used to claim that the primary finding is confirmed or contradicted.

Secondary outcomes registered for this trial, for reference (only those above were recalculated):

9. Statistical Interpretation

Clinical Biostats interpretation

At Week 40, the posted mean change in MDS-UPDRS Part III was 1.5 in the low-dose K0706 group, 1.0 in the high-dose K0706 group, and -1.0 in the placebo group. The unadjusted difference in mean change was 2.5 for low-dose K0706 versus placebo, with a 95% confidence interval of 0.662 to 4.338 and an unadjusted p-value of 0.008. For high-dose K0706 versus placebo, the mean difference was 2.0, with a 95% confidence interval of 0.285 to 3.715 and an unadjusted p-value of 0.022.

These are unadjusted comparisons of posted arm-level summary statistics. The registry lists no reported analyses for the primary outcome, so the comparisons should not be mistaken for a complete account of the sponsor's prespecified analysis. The posted confidence intervals describe uncertainty for the calculated mean differences under the corresponding unadjusted comparison; they do not address every source of uncertainty, such as missing outcomes or multiplicity.

The direction of a difference needs to be read alongside the endpoint definition. The mean difference is K0706 minus placebo, and the reported arm means are changes from baseline. Thus the positive contrasts reflect the separation between the reported average changes in the two groups. The registry does not state how the endpoint's direction was prespecified for interpretation, nor does it give a threshold for clinical importance. Statistical separation alone cannot establish that a difference is meaningful in practice.

The unadjusted p-values are below the conventional 0.05 planning significance level listed for the sample-size illustration. However, these p-values do not incorporate any correction for testing two dose groups or multiple outcomes. Whether the prespecified analysis used adjustments, a hierarchy, or another multiplicity approach is not reported in the registry record. Accordingly, the values should be read as exploratory unadjusted summaries, not as confirmation that a family-wise testing plan was satisfied.

The trial is listed as terminated, but the record does not report the reason. Termination does not by itself indicate whether the posted endpoint results are complete, whether the study ended early relative to its plan, or why the decision was made. The record's primary completion date is 2024-04-08, but additional detail about the termination and its impact on data collection is not reported in the registry record.

Overall, the posted numbers show distinct average changes across the three groups and positive unadjusted differences versus placebo for both dose comparisons. The precision estimates and limitations matter: the record does not give adjusted analyses, a detailed missing-data account, or the protocol assumptions needed to assess whether these comparisons answer the study's intended confirmatory question.

10. Statistical Methods Explained

The primary measure is continuous, and the registry says it is summarized as a mean with standard deviation. The posted means describe the average change in each group, while the standard deviations describe the spread of participant changes within each group. A mean difference compares two group averages. For the primary comparisons, the reported contrast is K0706 minus placebo.

What does a confidence interval express?

General: a confidence interval gives a range of estimates compatible with the observed data under the statistical method used. A narrower interval indicates greater precision for that estimate, while a wider interval indicates less precision. It is not a range containing every participant's outcome, and it does not represent the probability that a particular treatment effect is inside the interval.

The primary confidence intervals are reported as 0.662 to 4.338 for low-dose K0706 versus placebo and 0.285 to 3.715 for high-dose K0706 versus placebo. They express uncertainty around the calculated unadjusted mean differences. Their interpretation depends on the calculation method and assumptions; the registry does not report a full inferential analysis plan for these results.

What does a p-value add?

General: a p-value measures how unusual data at least as inconsistent with a specified null hypothesis would be if that hypothesis and the statistical model were correct. It is not the probability that the null hypothesis is true, nor does it measure the size or importance of a difference. The posted unadjusted p-values for the primary comparisons are 0.008 and 0.022. The registry record lists no reported analyses for the primary outcome, so these should be distinguished from a sponsor-reported model-based analysis.

The word unadjusted is important. Each dose is compared with placebo, and the registry also lists multiple secondary outcomes. When multiple statistical tests are considered, the chance of at least one apparently unusual result can increase. General: a testing plan may address this through a prespecified hierarchy, adjustment, or other approach. Whether any such procedure was used for the trial is not reported in the registry record.

Why does variation matter?

General: the standard deviation measures the spread of participant-level values around the group mean. A mean difference is estimated less precisely when participant outcomes are more variable, all else being equal. The reported primary standard deviations are 8.77 for low dose, 7.58 for high dose, and 8.13 for placebo. These values help describe the observed spread but do not reveal the shape of the outcome distributions or whether model assumptions were checked.

The registry's posted comparison details include pooled standard deviations and standardized effect estimates. General: a pooled standard deviation combines the within-group variability for a two-group comparison, and a standardized effect expresses a mean difference relative to a measure of that variability. These can help put a continuous contrast on a scale less dependent on the original scoring units. They do not replace the original-unit mean difference or its confidence interval.

What is and is not reported about the analysis?

The primary endpoint is identified for the efficacy analysis set, and the arm-level summaries include the number of participants summarized in each group. The registry does not report the model specification, covariates, assumptions about missing outcomes, imputation procedures, sensitivity analyses, or whether baseline values were incorporated in an adjusted model. It also does not report whether the primary test was prespecified as one-sided or two-sided, although the sample-size illustration is explicitly described as two-sided.

The comparison values are unadjusted recalculations from posted summary statistics. They are useful for understanding the reported arm summaries, but they are not a substitute for a complete analysis based on participant-level data and the planned statistical model. The registry record lists zero reported analyses for the primary outcome. The record does not explain why analysis-level results are absent.

General: a randomized comparison can support an estimate of the difference between assigned groups when follow-up and analysis preserve the randomized comparison. Departures from assigned treatment, missing outcome measurements, or analysis exclusions can affect interpretation. The registry gives an efficacy analysis set but does not explain its inclusion criteria or how it was formed, so the extent to which the posted summaries represent all randomized participants cannot be fully assessed from the record.

11. Confidence Intervals and Precision

The primary mean-difference estimates are accompanied by confidence intervals. For low-dose K0706 versus placebo, the estimate is 2.5 with a 95% confidence interval from 0.662 to 4.338. For high-dose K0706 versus placebo, the estimate is 2.0 with a 95% confidence interval from 0.285 to 3.715. Both intervals are entirely above zero, which indicates that zero is not among the values covered by these unadjusted intervals under their calculation method.

General: a confidence interval communicates precision by showing a range of plausible effect estimates under a statistical procedure. It is not an interval for individual participant changes, and its width does not account automatically for design issues, missing data, or multiple testing. The intervals describe the recalculated unadjusted comparisons, rather than a reported adjusted sponsor analysis.

The arm-level standard deviations are 8.77, 7.58, and 8.13 for low-dose K0706, high-dose K0706, and placebo, respectively. These values indicate that participant changes varied around the group means. The registry does not provide the underlying distributions, so the degree of skewness, outliers, or other distributional features cannot be assessed from these summaries.

Precision is also distinct from clinical importance. The record does not report a threshold for a meaningful change on MDS-UPDRS Part III, so the intervals cannot be judged against such a threshold using the registry information alone. In addition, the record does not report how missing data were handled or whether the displayed comparisons reflect all randomized participants. Those uncertainties are separate from the numerical width of the intervals.

12. Planning a Similar Trial: Sample Size

This is a planning illustration, not a re-evaluation of the original trial. It asks: if a new study wanted to detect a difference like the one observed, or a smaller one, how large would it need to be? It is deliberately not “observed power” of the finished trial, which is not a meaningful quantity.

Effect to detectParticipants per arm, 80% powerParticipants per arm, 90% power
100% of the observed effect180241
75% of the observed effect320428
50% of the observed effect719963
Sample size needed versus the size of the effect to detect
Sample size needed versus size of effect to detect1002005001,0002,00040%60%80%100%80% power90% powersize of effect to detect, as % of the effect observed (log vertical scale: participants per arm)
Method and assumptions. Two-sided α = 0.05, 1:1 allocation, two-sample comparison of means with the pooled standard deviation. Calculated for the comparison: K0706, Low Dose.

The sample-size illustration translates an observed comparison into planning quantities under stated assumptions. For this continuous endpoint, the figures are participants per arm, not total events. The illustration assumes a two-sided significance level of 0.05, equal allocation between the two arms, and a normal approximation. It considers effects equal to 100%, 75%, and 50% of the observed effect.

The 80% power column gives the number of participants per arm that the illustration estimates would be needed to have an 80% chance of detecting the specified effect under those assumptions. The 90% power column gives the corresponding number per arm for a 90% chance. Greater power requires more participants when the other assumptions remain the same. Smaller effects are harder to distinguish from random variation, so planning for a smaller fraction of the observed effect requires more participants.

These figures are illustrations based on the observed effect, not the trial's original design calculations. The protocol's own sample-size assumptions and justification are not reported in the registry record. The results are not observed power: they do not measure the probability that the completed trial detected an effect, and they cannot compensate for uncertainty in the observed effect estimate.

Planning based on an observed effect can be especially sensitive to the size of that estimate. General: observed effects from a study may be imprecise, and a planning exercise that treats them as fixed can understate or overstate the enrollment needed for future work. The values should therefore be read as assumption-dependent illustrations rather than recommendations or evidence about how the original study was designed.

13. How the Sample Size Is Derived

Power is the probability that a study of a given size rejects the null hypothesis when a specific true effect exists. It depends on four things: the effect to detect, the variability of the outcome, the significance level (here a two-sided α of 0.05, so z1−α/2 = 1.960) and the desired power (z1−β = 0.842 for 80% and 1.282 for 90%).

Formula

n = 2 (z1−α/2 + z1−β)2 σ2 / Δ2

n is the number of participants in each arm, Δ is the difference in means to detect and σ is the common standard deviation.

Worked calculation for this trial

  1. Observed difference Δ = 2.500; pooled standard deviation σ = 8.459.
  2. n = 2 × (1.96 + 0.842)2 × 8.4592 / 2.5002 = 179.7, rounded up to 180 participants per arm for 80% power.

The smaller-effect rows in the table above repeat the same calculation with the effect multiplied by 0.75 and 0.5 (for ratios, applied to the logarithm of the ratio).

R code

alpha <- 0.05
z_a   <- qnorm(1 - alpha / 2)          # two-sided
delta <- 2.5                      # observed difference in means
sigma <- 8.45902648666897                     # pooled standard deviation
n_per_arm <- function(power, frac = 1) {
  ceiling(round(2 * (z_a + qnorm(power))^2 * sigma^2 / (delta * frac)^2, 6))
}
for (f in c(1, 0.75, 0.5))
  cat(sprintf("%3.0f%% of observed effect: n per arm = %s (80%% power), %s (90%% power)\n", 100 * f,
              format(n_per_arm(0.80, f), big.mark = ","), format(n_per_arm(0.90, f), big.mark = ",")))

# Check against R's built-in function (t-based, so very slightly larger)
cat("power.t.test:", round(power.t.test(delta = delta, sd = sigma, power = 0.80)$n, 1), "\n")

# Simulation: exact two-sample t-test using simulated means and variances
set.seed(3655236)
n    <- n_per_arm(0.80)
reps <- 20000
m_diff <- rnorm(reps, delta, sigma * sqrt(2 / n))             # difference in sample means
s2     <- sigma^2 * rchisq(reps, 2 * (n - 1)) / (2 * (n - 1))   # pooled sample variance
tstat  <- m_diff / sqrt(s2 * 2 / n)
cat(sprintf("Simulated power at n = %s per arm: %.3f (%d replicates)\n", format(n, big.mark = ","), mean(abs(tstat) > qt(0.975, 2 * (n - 1))), reps))

Output from running the code

100% of observed effect: n per arm = 180 (80% power), 241 (90% power)
 75% of observed effect: n per arm = 320 (80% power), 428 (90% power)
 50% of observed effect: n per arm = 719 (80% power), 963 (90% power)
power.t.test: 180.7 
Simulated power at n = 180 per arm: 0.799 (20000 replicates)

The simulation draws many sets of group means and variances at the planned sample size and counts how often the two-sample t-test rejects the null. It should land close to the target power; at very small required sample sizes it can fall below it, because the normal approximation is rough there.

14. Multiplicity, Missing Data and Analysis Populations

The record lists one primary endpoint, two K0706 dose groups, and multiple secondary outcomes. That structure creates multiple possible comparisons. The posted primary and secondary comparison p-values are unadjusted. The record does not report whether the study used a hierarchy, family-wise error control, a false-discovery approach, or another strategy to account for multiple testing.

General: when many hypotheses are tested, interpreting each p-value as if it were the only test can overstate the strength of evidence. A prespecified approach can define which comparisons are confirmatory and how error rates are controlled. Without that information, the posted unadjusted p-values are descriptive of individual contrasts and do not establish that a broader set of claims has met a multiplicity-controlled criterion.

The record does not report how missing primary outcome measurements were handled. It does not describe imputation, a likelihood-based approach, sensitivity analyses, or assumptions about why data might be missing. This matters because analysis of incomplete outcomes can depend on whether missingness is related to observed or unobserved outcomes.

The primary population is named as the efficacy analysis set, but its membership criteria are not reported. The registry does not state whether the analysis followed intention-to-treat principles, how treatment discontinuations or protocol deviations were handled, or whether participants with missing measurements were excluded. Arm counts in the posted outcome summaries are available, but they do not alone resolve these analysis-population questions.

The record also lists no reported analyses for the primary endpoint and no reported analyses for the listed secondary outcome with participant counts. Consequently, the posted summaries and unadjusted recalculations do not supply the missing details of the prespecified inferential plan. The original analysis plan, multiplicity strategy, and missing-data methods are not reported in the registry record.

15. Safety Results

The registry reports serious adverse events as affected participants divided by participants at risk.

ArmParticipants with serious adverse eventsParticipants at riskPercentage
K0706, Low Dose (Part 2)3724.2%
K0706, High Dose (Part 2)111179.4%
K0706, Low Dose (Part 1)141718.2%
K0706, High Dose (Part 1)71734.0%
Placebo (Part 1)51673.0%
Participants with at least one serious adverse event
Serious adverse events by armK0706, Low Dose (Part 2)4.2%K0706, High Dose (Part 2)9.4%K0706, Low Dose (Part 1)8.2%K0706, High Dose (Part 1)4.0%Placebo (Part 1)3.0%% of participants with at least one serious adverse event

Deaths

ArmDeaths (participants affected of at risk)
K0706, Low Dose (Part 2)0 of 72
K0706, High Dose (Part 2)0 of 117
Placebo (Part 2)0 of 0
K0706, Low Dose (Part 1)1 of 171
K0706, High Dose (Part 1)0 of 173
Placebo (Part 1)0 of 167

Other (non-serious) adverse events

Participants with at least one non-serious event at or above the registry's 5% reporting threshold.

ArmParticipants affected of at risk
K0706, Low Dose (Part 2)21 of 72
K0706, High Dose (Part 2)85 of 117
Placebo (Part 2)0 of 0
K0706, Low Dose (Part 1)131 of 171
K0706, High Dose (Part 1)150 of 173
Placebo (Part 1)124 of 167

Most frequent serious adverse event terms

Event termOrgan systemK0706, Low Dose (Part 2)K0706, High Dose (Part 2)Placebo (Part 2)K0706, Low Dose (Part 1)K0706, High Dose (Part 1)Placebo (Part 1)
HyperglycaemiaMetabolism and nutrition disorders0 of 721 of 1170 of 00 of 1711 of 1733 of 167
Parkinson's diseaseNervous system disorders0 of 721 of 1170 of 01 of 1711 of 1732 of 167
PneumoniaInfections and infestations1 of 721 of 1170 of 01 of 1710 of 1730 of 167
Pleural effusionRespiratory, thoracic and mediastinal disorders0 of 721 of 1170 of 01 of 1710 of 1731 of 167
COVID-19Infections and infestations0 of 720 of 1170 of 01 of 1711 of 1731 of 167
HypoglycaemiaMetabolism and nutrition disorders0 of 721 of 1170 of 00 of 1710 of 1731 of 167
Benign prostatic hyperplasiaReproductive system and breast disorders0 of 721 of 1170 of 01 of 1710 of 1730 of 167
AppendicitisInfections and infestations0 of 720 of 1170 of 02 of 1710 of 1730 of 167
Transient ischaemic attackNervous system disorders0 of 720 of 1170 of 01 of 1710 of 1731 of 167
Bacterial sepsisInfections and infestations0 of 721 of 1170 of 00 of 1710 of 1730 of 167

Most frequent non-serious adverse event terms

Event termOrgan systemK0706, Low Dose (Part 2)K0706, High Dose (Part 2)Placebo (Part 2)K0706, Low Dose (Part 1)K0706, High Dose (Part 1)Placebo (Part 1)
RashSkin and subcutaneous tissue disorders1 of 728 of 1170 of 023 of 17130 of 1736 of 167
DiarrhoeaGastrointestinal disorders2 of 726 of 1170 of 018 of 17120 of 1737 of 167
NauseaGastrointestinal disorders2 of 723 of 1170 of 018 of 17118 of 17310 of 167
Urinary tract infectionInfections and infestations1 of 727 of 1170 of 09 of 17116 of 17313 of 167
Covid-19Infections and infestations0 of 726 of 1170 of 017 of 1717 of 17314 of 167
HeadacheNervous system disorders2 of 724 of 1170 of 011 of 17113 of 17310 of 167
FatigueGeneral disorders0 of 728 of 1170 of 05 of 17117 of 1738 of 167
ErythemaSkin and subcutaneous tissue disorders0 of 728 of 1170 of 09 of 17118 of 1731 of 167
Back painMusculoskeletal and connective tissue disorders2 of 726 of 1170 of 014 of 1715 of 1739 of 167
NasopharyngitisInfections and infestations4 of 723 of 1170 of 05 of 1716 of 17312 of 167

Serious events with the highest arm-level rate: hyperglycaemia (1.8%), pneumonia (1.4%), coronary heart disease (1.4%), pneumonitis (1.4%), parkinson's disease (1.2%).

Do not overextend the safety comparison. Serious-adverse-event counts are safety observations, not efficacy outcomes, and should not be combined with the primary result into a single benefit-risk number.

Safety counts are reported separately for Part 1 and Part 2. In Part 1, serious adverse events affected 14 of 171 participants in the low-dose group, 7 of 173 in the high-dose group, and 5 of 167 in the placebo group. The corresponding counts with other adverse events were 131, 150, and 124. Deaths reported for these groups were 1, 0, and 0, respectively.

For Part 2, the registry lists serious adverse events affecting 3 of 72 participants in the low-dose group and 11 of 117 in the high-dose group. Other adverse events affected 21 of 72 and 85 of 117, respectively. The placebo Part 2 group has zero participants at risk in the posted safety record, with zero events reported. These groups reflect the optional extension rather than a continuing randomized placebo comparison.

General: adverse-event counts describe how many participants were recorded as affected, not the severity, duration, or causal relationship of each event. The registry lists the most frequent serious-event terms with percentages, but does not provide enough detail to infer that a treatment caused an event. Exposure duration and the event-collection and coding methods are not reported in the registry record.

16. What the Result Does, and Does Not, Mean

The posted primary summaries describe average MDS-UPDRS Part III changes over Part 1 and unadjusted differences between each K0706 dose group and placebo. They show positive mean-difference estimates for both dose comparisons, with confidence intervals that do not include zero under the reported unadjusted calculations. This is a description of the posted data, not a clinical recommendation or proof of a treatment effect.

Statistical evidence and clinical importance are different questions. The registry does not state a threshold for a meaningful change on the motor examination scale. It also does not provide participant-level outcome distributions or enough information about the analysis population and missing data to establish how broadly the group averages represent all randomized participants.

The unadjusted comparisons do not establish that multiplicity was controlled across dose groups and outcomes. The record does not report the planned statistical analysis or sponsor-reported primary analyses. Therefore, the comparisons should be viewed with the limits of summary-statistic recalculation in mind, rather than treated as a complete confirmatory analysis.

The trial's terminated status is relevant context, but the reason for termination is not reported in the registry record. It cannot be inferred from that status alone whether the study ended early, whether termination was related to efficacy or safety, or how it affected follow-up. The posted safety counts likewise do not establish causation or allow a complete comparison of risk without additional context about exposure and event ascertainment.

In short, the record contains useful group summaries and calculated uncertainty for the primary endpoint, as well as selected secondary and safety information. It does not supply all the protocol, analysis, missing-data, and clinical-interpretation details needed to turn these numbers into a definitive account of the study's overall evidence.

17. Why This Trial Matters Statistically

This study illustrates the difference between a registry outcome summary and a full statistical report. The primary endpoint is clearly identified, and arm-level means, standard deviations, comparison estimates, confidence intervals, and unadjusted p-values permit a reader to understand the observed contrasts. At the same time, the record lists no reported analyses for the primary endpoint, leaving important details of the planned analysis unknown.

It also illustrates why uncertainty and multiplicity matter together. Confidence intervals describe precision for individual unadjusted comparisons, but they do not account automatically for the presence of two dose comparisons and several secondary outcomes. Without a reported testing strategy, individual p-values should not be taken as a complete assessment of the evidence across the study.

The study includes an optional extension, making it important to distinguish the randomized Part 1 placebo comparison from later Part 2 safety summaries. The Part 2 placebo group has no participants at risk in the posted safety information, so extension data do not provide the same three-group comparison as Part 1.

Finally, the registry status is terminated, but its reason is not reported. That missing context limits interpretation of study conduct and completion. The case demonstrates how statistical interpretation depends not only on outcome estimates, but also on transparent reporting of design assumptions, analysis populations, missing-data methods, and the prespecified plan for interpreting multiple outcomes.

18. Limitations

The registry record does not explain why the study was terminated. Without that context, the status cannot be linked to the primary results, safety findings, recruitment, or operational considerations. Nor does the record state whether termination changed follow-up or the planned analyses.

The original sample-size rationale is not reported. The available planning illustration uses observed effects and stated assumptions, which does not explain the enrollment target or power calculations used when the trial was designed. The record also does not provide a protocol-level analysis plan, including the planned model, covariate adjustment, or multiplicity strategy.

Although the primary endpoint is assigned to an efficacy analysis set, the registry does not define that set or say how missing measurements, treatment discontinuations, or protocol deviations were handled. The arm-level sample sizes alone cannot answer those questions. There are no reported primary analyses in the record, so the posted recalculations from summary statistics may not reflect the sponsor's planned inferential method.

The registry provides selected secondary outcomes, but not results for every listed measure. The secondary comparisons that are posted are unadjusted, and the record does not report a testing hierarchy. This makes it difficult to assess the broader pattern as a prespecified family of hypotheses.

Safety counts are divided between Part 1 and the optional extension, and the extension lacks a placebo group in the posted record. Detailed exposure time, event attribution, and adverse-event collection methods are not reported. These limitations restrict direct safety comparisons and causal interpretation.

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22. Record Summary

NCT03655236 is a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled Phase 2 parallel study of K0706 in early Parkinson's disease. The registry lists quadruple masking, 513 enrolled participants, study start on 2019-02-18, primary completion on 2024-04-08, and a terminated status.

The primary endpoint was change from baseline to Week 40 in MDS-UPDRS Part III total score. Posted means and unadjusted comparisons show positive mean differences versus placebo for both K0706 dose groups. The registry record does not report primary analyses or the trial's original statistical plan, including multiplicity and missing-data methods. The reason for termination is not reported in the registry record.

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