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Panic Disorder Phase 2 Binary Endpoint NCT05071430

Safety and Efficacy of HB-1 for Panic Disorder: Complete Statistical Analysis

The registry record describes a randomized, placebo-controlled phase 2 trial of HB-01 for panic disorder. The posted results focus on treatment-emergent adverse events and also include a participant-count outcome for panic attacks.

Trial start: 2022-02-03  ·  Enrollment: 86  ·  Sponsor: HB BioTech, LLC
Scope of this record

This page provides an independent statistical analysis and educational interpretation of publicly reported results. ClinicalTrials.gov provides the official trial registry record. Numerical trial results on this page are restricted to the results posted in the ClinicalTrials.gov record; calculations added by Clinical Biostats are labelled as such.

1. Trial at a Glance

This page covers the registry results for Safety and Efficacy of HB-1 for Panic Disorder (NCT05071430), a randomized phase 2 study. The primary outcome is Incidence of Treatment-Emergent Adverse Events.

86
Enrollment
Phase 2
2
Arms
In the primary outcome
+18.2 pts
Risk difference
Active Treatment (HB-01)
-2.9 to 39.2 pts
95% CI
Two-sided
FeatureRegistry value
ClinicalTrials.gov identifierNCT05071430
PhasePhase 2
ConditionPanic Disorder
AllocationRandomized
Design modelParallel
MaskingTriple
Enrollment86
Arms in the primary outcome2
Lead sponsorHB BioTech, LLC
Results postedYes

2. Clinical Question

Population

Adults aged 18 to 60 years, inclusive, with panic disorder were eligible. The brief summary describes male and female participants. The primary safety population is defined as randomized participants who received at least one dose of study drug.

Intervention

The active treatment was HB-01, a drug intervention. The active-treatment arm description says approximately 40 patients would receive the study drug.

Comparator

The comparator was a matched placebo. Its arm description also says approximately 40 patients would receive the assigned treatment.

Primary question

Over up to 12 weeks, how many participants in each arm experienced a treatment-emergent adverse event? The primary endpoint is a count of participants, and the registry describes safety monitoring that also included clinically significant changes in routine laboratory tests, ECGs, and orthostatic vital signs.

The clinical question is framed around safety rather than a measure of panic symptom severity. The registry also lists Number of Panic Attacks as a secondary outcome. Its posted results are expressed as participant counts, so they should be read according to that recorded measure rather than assumed to represent an average number of attacks or a change in attack frequency.

The active-treatment and placebo groups are compared over the recorded follow-up timeframe. For the primary endpoint, the registry reports 23 participants with an event among 42 in the active-treatment group and 15 among 41 in the placebo group. These counts describe the posted safety results; they do not by themselves establish why events occurred or whether a difference is attributable to treatment. The registry record does not report a detailed case definition for treatment-emergent events beyond the endpoint description.

3. Trial Design

This was a phase 2, randomized, parallel-group trial of HB-01 and placebo. The official title describes it as multicenter, double blind, and placebo-controlled, while the registry records masking as triple. The registry record does not explain how those masking descriptions relate to one another. Participants were assigned to active treatment or matched placebo, with the arm descriptions anticipating approximately 40 patients in each group.

The registry reports enrollment of 86. The primary safety results give 42 participants in the active-treatment group and 41 in the placebo group; the secondary outcome lists 42 in each group. These are the group sizes recorded for the respective results and should not be treated as interchangeable denominators. The primary endpoint population is defined as participants who were randomized and received at least one dose of study drug.

The study start date is 2022-02-03, the primary completion date is 2022-12-12, and the registry status is completed. The sponsor is HB BioTech, LLC. The registry identifies panic disorder as the condition and adults aged 18 to 60 years, inclusive, as the intended study population.

The available record gives the broad design and outcome descriptions but does not report the trial's original sample-size justification, detailed allocation procedures, or a full statistical analysis plan. The registry record also does not report how many participants discontinued, how missing observations were handled, or whether the posted outcome groups include every participant randomized. Those omissions limit assessment of the conduct and analysis beyond the details explicitly recorded.

4. Participant Flow and Accounting

The registry reports how participants moved through each stage of the study. All counts below are exactly as posted; missing counts are not inferred from other stages.

Before assignment: Three participants withdrew prior to receiving study treatment changing 86 to 83 subjects treated.

Overall Study

StageActive Treatment (HB-01)Placebo Treatment
STARTED4241
COMPLETED3232
NOT COMPLETED109

Reasons for not completing this period:

ReasonActive Treatment (HB-01)Placebo Treatment
Adverse Event12
Lost to Follow-up44
Protocol Violation10
Withdrawal by Subject32
Other11

Analysis population for the primary outcome, as defined in the registry: Safety Population - subjects who were randomized and received at least one dose of study drug.

5. Baseline Characteristics

The table reproduces the baseline characteristics posted in the registry, which describe the participants analysed at baseline and help show whether the randomized groups were comparable.

Population: Of the 135 subjects screened, 86 subjects were randomized to the study, 44 to the treated group and 42 to the placebo group. 83 subjects received at least one dose of study medication, 42 in the active treatment arm and 41 in the placebo arm. Three participants withdrew prior to receiving study treatment.

CharacteristicUnitActive Treatment (HB-01)Placebo TreatmentTotal
Participants analysed424183
Age, Categorical: <=18 yearsParticipants000
Age, Categorical: Between 18 and 65 yearsParticipants424183
Age, Categorical: >=65 yearsParticipants000
Age, Continuousyears38.4 (SD 10.25)36.3 (SD 13.54)37.3 (SD 11.96)
Sex: Female, Male: FemaleParticipants313061
Sex: Female, Male: MaleParticipants111122
Race (NIH/OMB): American Indian or Alaska NativeParticipants202
Race (NIH/OMB): AsianParticipants134
Race (NIH/OMB): Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific IslanderParticipants000
Race (NIH/OMB): Black or African AmericanParticipants12921
Race (NIH/OMB): WhiteParticipants262551
Race (NIH/OMB): More than one raceParticipants022
Race (NIH/OMB): Unknown or Not ReportedParticipants123
Region of Enrollment: United StatesParticipants424183

6. Primary Endpoint

The registry lists the primary outcome as Incidence of Treatment-Emergent Adverse Events, measured over Up to 12 weeks.

ElementRegistry entry
Result typeCount Of Participants
Measure of spreadnot applicable
UnitParticipants
Endpoint classificationBinary Endpoint

The primary endpoint is the incidence of treatment-emergent adverse events, expressed as the number of participants reporting an event over up to 12 weeks. The registry describes safety evaluation through adverse-event monitoring and review of clinically significant changes in routine laboratory tests, ECGs, and orthostatic vital signs. It says the results were presented as the number of subjects reporting an adverse event as a percentage of the study population that met eligibility criteria.

The posted participant counts are 23 of 42 in the active-treatment group and 15 of 41 in the placebo group. The comparison also reports the corresponding proportions as 0.548 and 0.366, respectively. The endpoint is useful for describing how many people experienced at least one recorded event, but a participant count does not convey the number of separate events, their duration, severity, or clinical importance. Those details are not reported in the primary endpoint record.

Safety monitoring is a distinct purpose from assessing symptom benefit. A count of participants with an event can summarize the observed burden during the recorded timeframe, but it cannot alone identify causation or characterize risk outside the study population and follow-up. The registry does not report a more detailed event definition or a breakdown of all non-serious adverse-event types in the posted primary results.

7. Results Posted in the Registry

Risk difference: Active Treatment (HB-01)

+18.2

95% CI: -2.9 to 39.2 percentage points

Recalculated from the posted summary statistics

Primary outcome by arm, with 95% confidence intervals
Primary outcome by arm with 95% confidence intervals19.129.940.851.662.573.3Active Treatment (HB-01) (n=42)Placebo Treatment (n=41)% of participants (95% CI)
Treatment effect versus the control arm
Forest plot of risk difference (percentage points) vs control (95% CI)Active Treatment (HB-01)-6.273.5113233343risk difference (percentage points) vs control (95% CI)

8. Secondary Efficacy Endpoints

The registry also posts results for secondary outcomes. For each outcome below, the endpoint type, the test applied to the posted summary statistics, the result and its interpretation are given in turn. Secondary endpoints are usually not adjusted for multiple testing, so they support rather than confirm the primary finding.

Secondary outcomeTypeEffect measureEstimate (95% CI)Planning size, 80% power
Number of Panic AttacksBinary EndpointRisk difference+16.7 pts (-3.0 to 36.3)123 per arm

Number of Panic Attacks

Treatment effect versus the control arm
Forest plot of risk difference (percentage points) vs control (95% CI)Active Treatment (HB-01)-6.132.9912213039risk difference (percentage points) vs control (95% CI)

The registry posts one secondary outcome, Number of Panic Attacks, and characterizes it as a participant count over up to 12 weeks. Its unadjusted point estimate is in the same direction as the primary safety comparison, but that broad pattern should not be taken as corroboration of the primary result. The endpoints measure different things, and the secondary result has its own uncertainty and outcome-definition limitations.

The label may sound like a measure of how often attacks occurred, but the registry records the outcome unit as participants and the parameter as a count of participants with an event. The specific classification rule is not reported in the registry record. Consequently, the result cannot be interpreted as a mean number of attacks, a change from baseline, or a rate of attacks without additional documentation.

The secondary comparison is an unadjusted recalculation from posted counts. No secondary analyses are reported in the registry record, and no plan for prioritizing or adjusting secondary comparisons is reported. When several outcomes are examined, the chance of observing an apparently notable result by chance can increase. Adjustment or a prespecified hierarchy can help address that issue, but the record does not state whether either was used. For that reason, an unadjusted secondary result generally carries less evidential weight than a prespecified primary analysis, especially when the analysis plan is unavailable.

The overall pattern is therefore limited: the posted secondary estimate points in the same broad direction as the primary comparison, but the record does not establish that the result is robust, confirmatory, or clinically meaningful. It is best treated as an exploratory piece of context. The trial's primary endpoint remains a safety outcome, and the secondary participant-count result should not be used to replace a dedicated, fully described assessment of panic symptoms.

Secondary outcomes registered for this trial, for reference (only those above were recalculated):

9. Statistical Interpretation

Clinical Biostats interpretation

In the primary safety results, treatment-emergent adverse events were reported for 23 of 42 participants receiving HB-01 and 15 of 41 receiving placebo. The recalculated, unadjusted risk difference is 0.182, with an interval from -0.029 to 0.393. The positive point estimate indicates that the observed proportion was higher in the active-treatment group, while the interval includes zero and also allows values on either side of zero. The posted data therefore leave substantial uncertainty about the size and direction of the underlying difference.

The unadjusted p-value is 0.097. A p-value summarizes how compatible the observed data are with a specified no-difference model under the assumptions of the calculation; it is not the probability that the treatments are equal, nor does it measure the clinical importance of the result. The registry record reports no primary analysis count, and no sponsor analysis is reported in the registry record. The numerical comparison is a simple unadjusted recalculation from the posted counts, not a substitute for an analysis specified by the trial investigators.

The secondary outcome, Number of Panic Attacks, has a point estimate in the same direction as the primary comparison, but its interval also includes zero. This directional similarity is not independent confirmation of a treatment effect: the secondary measure is based on the same trial, has a different outcome definition, and is not accompanied by a reported analysis plan or multiplicity adjustment. Its registry description is a count of participants, not a report of the average frequency of attacks.

These results should be read as descriptive evidence from a completed phase 2 trial with relatively limited group sizes, not as a definitive estimate. The confidence intervals indicate that the data are compatible with a range of effects, and the posted counts do not establish causality. The record does not report how missing data were treated, whether all randomized participants contributed to each endpoint, or whether the analysis adjusted for any baseline factors. Such details matter when judging how robust an apparent difference may be.

The posted primary endpoint is a safety measure, while the listed secondary outcome concerns panic attacks. Neither outcome alone captures the full balance of potential benefit and harm. The available registry results support describing the observed counts and uncertainty; they do not justify a clinical recommendation or a claim that HB-01 does or does not work.

10. Statistical Methods Explained

The posted outcomes are recorded as participant counts: each result gives the number of participants with the event and the number in the relevant group. For a binary outcome, each participant is classified according to whether the defined event was recorded. This is different from an outcome that counts every event or measures a continuous quantity such as a score.

What does a risk difference describe?

A risk difference compares the proportions with an event in two groups by subtracting one group's proportion from the other's. A value above zero in these comparisons means the event proportion is higher in the active-treatment group than in the placebo group; a value below zero means it is lower. For the primary endpoint, the recalculated unadjusted risk difference is 0.182. This is an absolute comparison of the recorded proportions, not a relative increase and not a count of additional events. It is calculated from the posted summary counts and does not adjust for other participant characteristics.

How do relative measures differ?

A risk ratio compares the event proportions as a ratio, while an odds ratio compares the odds of an event. They express the contrast on different scales from the risk difference, so their numerical values are not directly interchangeable. For the primary endpoint, the posted recalculation gives a risk ratio of 1.497 with an interval from 0.919 to 2.438, and an odds ratio of 2.098 with an interval from 0.871 to 5.055. These relative measures are also unadjusted. Because the endpoint is not rare in the posted groups, the odds ratio should not be read as though it were the risk ratio.

What does the p-value contribute?

The unadjusted p-value for the primary comparison is 0.097. In general, a p-value measures how unusual results at least as discrepant as those observed would be under a specified statistical model and its assumptions. It does not give the probability that the null hypothesis is true, quantify the size of an effect, or account for whether an outcome matters to patients. Its interpretation depends on the analysis and assumptions, and the registry record does not report a sponsor analysis or a detailed primary statistical plan. The posted value is therefore best treated as part of the unadjusted summary rather than as a complete account of the trial's analysis.

Why do intervals matter alongside point estimates?

A point estimate compresses the observed contrast to one number. A confidence interval communicates uncertainty around that estimate under the method used. The primary risk-difference interval ranges from -0.029 to 0.393. Since it includes zero, it includes no difference as well as possible differences in either direction. Intervals do not remove uncertainty, and their coverage interpretation depends on the confidence level and method. The registry result does not state the interval's confidence level or the precise interval procedure, so those details are not reported in the registry record.

What can be inferred from participant counts?

A count of participants with an event records whether people experienced the endpoint, not how many separate events each person had. For adverse events, the primary endpoint description also refers to laboratory tests, ECGs, and orthostatic vital signs as part of safety evaluation, but the posted primary result is the participant count reporting an adverse event. It does not supply a complete breakdown of event type, severity, or timing. For Number of Panic Attacks, the registry likewise records participants and counts. The specific rule used to classify a participant for that outcome is not reported in the registry record, so the label should not be expanded into an assumed measure of attack frequency or change.

The comparison is described as recalculated and unadjusted from posted summary statistics. It should not be mistaken for a prespecified or adjusted model-based analysis. The registry record reports zero analyses, and the secondary outcome has no reported analyses. It does not give a statistical model, covariate adjustment, missing-data method, or interval construction procedure. Those gaps make it important to separate the observable arithmetic summary from claims about the investigators' intended inferential method.

For binary outcomes, general methods may use different approaches to estimate uncertainty, and those methods can behave differently with limited group sizes or sparse events. No method should be attributed to this trial unless it is recorded. Over-dispersion is a concern in some count models when variation exceeds a model's assumptions; it is not a quantity reported for these participant-level binary outcomes, and the record does not describe a count-model analysis. General statistical cautions should not be mistaken for evidence that any particular model was used.

11. Confidence Intervals and Precision

The primary risk-difference interval is -0.029 to 0.393 around a point estimate of 0.182. This is a broad range relative to the point estimate and crosses zero. In practical statistical terms, the posted data do not pin down the direction or magnitude of the difference precisely: values consistent with a modest difference favoring placebo, no difference, and a larger difference favoring the active-treatment group all fall within the interval. The interval is an uncertainty summary under a statistical procedure; it is not a list of likely individual outcomes.

The registry record does not identify the confidence level or interval method, so those should not be assumed. In general, a confidence interval is constructed so that a procedure has a stated long-run coverage property under its assumptions. It does not mean that a fixed treatment effect has a particular probability of lying within the calculated interval after the data are observed.

The secondary risk-difference interval is -0.030 to 0.363 around a point estimate of 0.167. It also crosses zero and spans a wide range of possible differences. Both intervals reflect uncertainty in estimates derived from the posted group counts, and neither establishes that there is no difference simply because zero is included. Conversely, the positive point estimates do not establish a reliable positive effect. The interval widths and the limited group sizes make precision a central consideration when interpreting these results.

Precision is separate from clinical importance. The registry does not define a threshold for a clinically meaningful difference, and the interval alone cannot indicate whether any value would matter to patients. More information about outcome definitions, missingness, and analysis methods would also be needed to assess how well these intervals represent uncertainty in the trial's full data.

12. Planning a Similar Trial: Sample Size

This is a planning illustration, not a re-evaluation of the original trial. It asks: if a new study wanted to detect a difference like the one observed, or a smaller one, how large would it need to be? It is deliberately not “observed power” of the finished trial, which is not a meaningful quantity.

Effect to detectParticipants per arm, 80% powerParticipants per arm, 90% power
100% of the observed effect117156
75% of the observed effect207276
50% of the observed effect459614
Sample size needed versus the size of the effect to detect
Sample size needed versus size of effect to detect1002005001,0002,00040%60%80%100%80% power90% powersize of effect to detect, as % of the effect observed (log vertical scale: participants per arm)
Treat these figures cautiously. The observed difference is imprecise: its confidence interval includes no difference at all. A sample size built on a noisy estimate can be far too small or too large, so the smaller-effect rows are the more cautious guide.
Method and assumptions. Two-sided α = 0.05, 1:1 allocation, pooled-variance normal approximation for two proportions (control proportion held at the observed value). Calculated for the comparison: Active Treatment (HB-01).

The planning figures are participants per arm, not total participants and not total events. They are illustrations based on the observed effect, not the trial's original design calculation. The assumptions listed for the illustration are a two-sided significance level of 0.05, equal allocation between two arms, a normal approximation, and an effect to detect equal to the stated fraction of the observed effect. The trial's own original sample-size assumptions and justification are not reported in the registry record.

For the primary endpoint, planning for 100% of the observed effect gives 117 participants per arm for 80% power and 156 participants per arm for 90% power. Planning for 75% of the observed effect gives 207 participants per arm for 80% power and 276 participants per arm for 90% power. Planning for 50% of the observed effect gives 459 participants per arm for 80% power and 614 participants per arm for 90% power.

The 80% power column represents the illustrative per-arm size calculated to give an 80% chance of detecting the specified effect under the listed assumptions if that effect were the true one. The 90% column makes the analogous calculation for a 90% chance. Smaller effects are harder to distinguish from random variation, so the illustrations require more participants per arm as the target effect shrinks. The plotted relationship should be read in that same planning sense: the required size rises as the effect to detect becomes smaller.

These estimates are not observed power. They do not describe the probability that this completed trial detected an effect after its results were known, and they should not be used to infer that a nonsignificant result reflects either an adequate or inadequate original design. The calculations are hypothetical planning illustrations based on the observed effect and specified assumptions.

13. How the Sample Size Is Derived

Power is the probability that a study of a given size rejects the null hypothesis when a specific true effect exists. It depends on four things: the effect to detect, the variability of the outcome, the significance level (here a two-sided α of 0.05, so z1−α/2 = 1.960) and the desired power (z1−β = 0.842 for 80% and 1.282 for 90%).

Formula

n = [ z1−α/2 √(2p̄(1−p̄)) + z1−β √(p0(1−p0) + p1(1−p1)) ]2 / (p1 − p0)2

n is the number of participants in each arm, p0 and p1 are the control and treatment proportions, and p̄ is their average.

Worked calculation for this trial

  1. Control proportion p0 = 0.366; treatment proportion p1 = 0.548; average p̄ = 0.457.
  2. First term: z1−α/2 × √[2p̄(1−p̄)] = 1.96 × 0.7045 = 1.3807.
  3. Second term: z1−β × √[p0(1−p0) + p1(1−p1)] = 0.842 × 0.6926 = 0.5829.
  4. n = (1.3807 + 0.5829)2 / (0.1818)2 = 116.7, rounded up to 117 participants per arm for 80% power.

The smaller-effect rows in the table above repeat the same calculation with the effect multiplied by 0.75 and 0.5 (for ratios, applied to the logarithm of the ratio).

R code

alpha <- 0.05
z_a   <- qnorm(1 - alpha / 2)          # two-sided
p0 <- 0.365853658536585                          # control proportion
p1 <- 0.547619047619048                          # treatment proportion
n_per_arm <- function(power, frac = 1) {
  q1 <- p0 + (p1 - p0) * frac               # smaller effect = fraction of the observed difference
  pbar <- (p0 + q1) / 2
  z_b <- qnorm(power)
  ceiling(round((z_a * sqrt(2 * pbar * (1 - pbar)) + z_b * sqrt(p0 * (1 - p0) + q1 * (1 - q1)))^2 / (q1 - p0)^2, 6))
}
for (f in c(1, 0.75, 0.5))
  cat(sprintf("%3.0f%% of observed effect: n per arm = %s (80%% power), %s (90%% power)\n", 100 * f,
              format(n_per_arm(0.80, f), big.mark = ","), format(n_per_arm(0.90, f), big.mark = ",")))

# Check against R's built-in function (unrounded n per arm)
cat("power.prop.test:", round(power.prop.test(p1 = p0, p2 = p1, power = 0.80)$n, 1), "\n")

# Simulation: how often does the z-test reject at the 80%-power sample size?
set.seed(5071430)
n    <- n_per_arm(0.80)
reps <- 20000
x0 <- rbinom(reps, n, p0); x1 <- rbinom(reps, n, p1)
ph <- (x0 + x1) / (2 * n)
z  <- ((x1 - x0) / n) / sqrt(ph * (1 - ph) * 2 / n)
cat(sprintf("Simulated power at n = %s per arm: %.3f (%d replicates)\n", format(n, big.mark = ","), mean(abs(z) > z_a, na.rm = TRUE), reps))

Output from running the code

100% of observed effect: n per arm = 117 (80% power), 156 (90% power)
 75% of observed effect: n per arm = 207 (80% power), 276 (90% power)
 50% of observed effect: n per arm = 459 (80% power), 614 (90% power)
power.prop.test: 116.7 
Simulated power at n = 117 per arm: 0.821 (20000 replicates)

The simulation draws many pairs of event counts at the planned sample size and counts how often the two-proportion z-test rejects the null. It should land close to the target power; at very small required sample sizes it can fall below it, because the normal approximation is rough there.

14. Multiplicity, Missing Data and Analysis Populations

The registry identifies one primary outcome and lists Number of Panic Attacks as a secondary outcome. It also records 4 outcome measures, while only one secondary outcome is posted in the record. The registry does not explain the relationship between those entries or report a prespecified hierarchy for testing outcomes. It does not report whether multiplicity was addressed through an adjustment, a gatekeeping procedure, or another strategy. These details are not reported in the registry record.

Multiplicity matters because testing several outcomes can increase the chance that at least one result appears unusual under a no-effect model. This general concern does not mean that a particular posted finding is false; it means that isolated unadjusted results require caution when the full testing plan is unknown. The secondary comparison is explicitly unadjusted in the recalculation, and no secondary analyses are reported. The primary comparison is also an unadjusted recalculation from posted summary counts, not a documented sponsor analysis.

Missing-data handling is not reported in the registry record. The record does not say whether participants with missing endpoint information were excluded, whether values were imputed, or whether sensitivity analyses were performed. It also does not provide a participant flow accounting for outcome availability or explain whether the denominators changed because of missing observations. Those details could affect both the estimated proportions and their uncertainty.

The primary endpoint population is described as the safety population: participants randomized who received at least one dose of study drug. The primary groups contain 42 and 41 participants, while the secondary groups contain 42 and 42. The registry record does not explain the denominator difference or provide a separate definition of the secondary analysis population. Enrollment is reported as 86, but the record does not give enough detail to reconcile enrollment with the endpoint populations. No inference about exclusions, withdrawals, or missing outcomes should be made from these figures alone.

These reporting gaps constrain interpretation of the posted comparisons. A full statistical assessment would ordinarily need the prespecified analysis population, outcome definitions, handling of missing data, and multiplicity approach. Since these are not reported, the results are most defensibly described as posted counts and unadjusted comparisons with uncertainty, rather than as evidence from a documented confirmatory testing strategy.

15. Safety Results

The registry reports serious adverse events as affected participants divided by participants at risk.

ArmParticipants with serious adverse eventsParticipants at riskPercentage
Active Treatment (HB-01)0420.0%
Placebo Treatment0410.0%

Deaths

ArmDeaths (participants affected of at risk)
Active Treatment (HB-01)0 of 42
Placebo Treatment0 of 41

Other (non-serious) adverse events

Participants with at least one non-serious event at or above the registry's 0% reporting threshold.

ArmParticipants affected of at risk
Active Treatment (HB-01)23 of 42
Placebo Treatment15 of 41

Most frequent non-serious adverse event terms

Event termOrgan systemActive Treatment (HB-01)Placebo Treatment
orthostatic hypotensionVascular disorders4 of 424 of 41
covid-19Infections and infestations3 of 422 of 41
nauseaGastrointestinal disorders3 of 422 of 41
insomniaPsychiatric disorders3 of 422 of 41
HeadacheNervous system disorders0 of 423 of 41
fatigueGeneral disorders3 of 420 of 41
dizzinessNervous system disorders2 of 420 of 41
lightheadednessNervous system disorders1 of 421 of 41
migraineNervous system disorders1 of 421 of 41
dizziness on standingNervous system disorders1 of 420 of 41
Do not overextend the safety comparison. Serious-adverse-event counts are safety observations, not efficacy outcomes, and should not be combined with the primary result into a single benefit-risk number.

The registry reports zero serious adverse events among 42 participants in the active-treatment safety group and zero among 41 participants in the placebo safety group. It also reports zero deaths in each group. No top serious adverse-event terms are listed. These are counts observed in the recorded safety groups, not proof that serious events or deaths cannot occur.

The primary adverse-event endpoint is broader than serious adverse events: it records participants reporting any treatment-emergent adverse event, with 23 in the active-treatment group and 15 in the placebo group. Serious-event counts and overall adverse-event counts answer different questions and should not be conflated. The serious-event figures alone do not describe the type, timing, or severity of non-serious events, nor do they establish whether an event was caused by study treatment.

The safety timeframe is up to 12 weeks. A zero count within the observed groups and timeframe is a limited observation, not a guarantee about longer exposure or other populations. The registry record does not report further detail about serious-event definitions or individual event descriptions in these results.

16. What the Result Does, and Does Not, Mean

The posted data show that treatment-emergent adverse events were recorded for more participants in the active-treatment group than in the placebo group, with an unadjusted risk-difference estimate of 0.182. The interval from -0.029 to 0.393 includes zero and allows a range of differences, so the estimate is imprecise. The results are a description of what was recorded in this trial; they do not establish that treatment caused the observed difference.

The secondary participant-count outcome has a point estimate in the same direction, but it is not a direct measure of attack frequency as recorded. The registry does not report a secondary analysis plan or multiplicity approach. This result therefore adds limited context and cannot be treated as independent confirmation or as a complete measure of clinical benefit.

The trial's phase 2 design, group sizes, and follow-up timeframe are important context. The registry reports a completed randomized comparison, but does not provide the full analysis plan, missing-data procedures, a detailed flow of participants through each analysis, or the original sample-size justification. Those omissions limit how confidently the posted comparisons can be generalized beyond the recorded participants and period.

Statistical uncertainty is not the same as evidence of equivalence. An interval containing zero does not prove that the groups have identical outcomes; it indicates that the available data do not precisely distinguish a range of possibilities. Likewise, a positive point estimate does not demonstrate a clinically important difference. The registry does not specify a threshold for clinical importance, and the summary counts do not supply the detail needed to judge event severity or patient impact.

These results should not be read as medical advice or as a determination that HB-01 works or does not work. They support a cautious account of the observed safety counts and their uncertainty, while leaving questions about the size, clinical relevance, and robustness of group differences unresolved.

17. Why This Trial Matters Statistically

This trial is statistically informative because it makes the distinction between an observed contrast and a precise estimate visible. The primary point estimate is positive, but its interval is broad and includes zero. Looking only at the point estimate or a single p-value would omit the uncertainty that is essential to interpreting a modest-sized randomized comparison.

It also illustrates why endpoint definition matters. The primary result counts participants who reported treatment-emergent adverse events, whereas the registry's secondary outcome is labeled Number of Panic Attacks but is recorded as a participant count. Without a more detailed outcome definition, it would be easy to overinterpret that label as an event frequency or symptom-change measure. Statistical summaries are only as interpretable as the outcomes they represent.

The record also highlights the value of transparent analysis reporting. The comparisons are unadjusted recalculations from posted counts, and no sponsor analysis is reported in the registry record. Information about the original sample-size rationale, analysis populations, missing-data handling, interval method, and multiplicity strategy is not reported. Those omissions do not invalidate the counts, but they limit the strength of inferential conclusions that can be drawn from them.

Finally, planning illustrations based on an observed effect can show how assumptions about target effect and desired power influence sample-size requirements. They are not evidence about the original design or about the probability that this trial detected a true effect. Keeping planning calculations distinct from trial results helps prevent a common misreading of post-study sample-size exercises.

18. Limitations

Several limitations specific to this registry record affect interpretation. The trial is described as phase 2, and the primary results come from groups of 42 and 41 participants. The primary endpoint interval is broad, so the observed comparison is not precise. The follow-up timeframe is up to 12 weeks, which limits what the posted safety counts describe about duration beyond that period.

The primary outcome counts participants reporting an adverse event, but the registry does not provide a detailed definition of treatment-emergent events or a complete breakdown of event types, severity, or timing. The safety description mentions laboratory tests, ECGs, and orthostatic vital signs, while the posted primary outcome is expressed as an adverse-event participant count. The record does not show how those monitoring elements relate to the reported count.

The secondary outcome is also recorded as participants, while its title could be read as a count of attacks. The registry does not report the precise classification rule, so interpretation as attack frequency, symptom change, or rate is not supported by the record. The relationship between the 4 outcome measures recorded and the single posted secondary outcome is not explained.

Important analysis details are not reported in the registry record: the trial's original sample-size justification, full statistical plan, interval method and confidence level, missing-data handling, participant flow, multiplicity approach, and sponsor analyses. The primary safety population is defined, but the record does not reconcile all group denominators across outcomes. These limitations make the posted results most useful as descriptive summaries and unadjusted comparisons rather than a complete account of the trial's inferential evidence.

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22. Record Summary

NCT05071430 is a completed phase 2 randomized, parallel-group, placebo-controlled trial of HB-01 for panic disorder. The official title describes a multicenter, double-blind study, while the registry records triple masking. The intended population was male and female adults aged 18 to 60 years, inclusive.

The primary endpoint was the number of participants reporting treatment-emergent adverse events over up to 12 weeks. The posted counts were 23 of 42 for active treatment and 15 of 41 for placebo. The unadjusted recalculated risk difference is 0.182, with an interval from -0.029 to 0.393. Zero serious adverse events and zero deaths are recorded in both safety groups.

Number of Panic Attacks is the one posted secondary outcome, recorded as a participant count. The registry does not report sponsor analyses, a full statistical plan, or key details on missing data and multiplicity. The results should therefore be interpreted as posted counts and uncertain, unadjusted comparisons.

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