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Pain Phase 3 Continuous Endpoint NCT02634788

Study of Buprenorphine Sublingual Spray for the Treatment of Moderate to Severe Pain: Complete Statistical Analysis

This analysis examines a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled Phase 3 trial of buprenorphine sublingual spray for postoperative pain after bunionectomy. It focuses on the 0-to-48-hour pain-intensity endpoint, the sponsor’s posted comparisons, and the limits of interpreting the statistical results.

Trial start: 2016-01-29  ·  Enrollment: 322  ·  Sponsor: INSYS Therapeutics Inc
Scope of this record

This page provides an independent statistical analysis and educational interpretation of publicly reported results. ClinicalTrials.gov provides the official trial registry record. Numerical trial results on this page are restricted to the results posted in the ClinicalTrials.gov record; calculations added by Clinical Biostats are labelled as such.

1. Trial at a Glance

This page covers the registry results for Study of Buprenorphine Sublingual Spray for the Treatment of Moderate to Severe Pain (NCT02634788), a randomized phase 3 study. The primary outcome is Numeric Rating Scale (NRS) Summed Pain Intensity Difference (SPID) Over 0 to 48 Hours After Time 0 (NRS SPID-48).

322
Enrollment
Phase 3
4
Arms
In the primary outcome
81.93
Mean difference
Buprenorphine 0.5 mg TID
53.62–110.24
95% CI
Two-sided
FeatureRegistry value
ClinicalTrials.gov identifierNCT02634788
PhasePhase 3
ConditionPain
AllocationRandomized
Design modelParallel
MaskingDouble
Enrollment322
Arms in the primary outcome4
Lead sponsorINSYS Therapeutics Inc
Results postedYes

2. Clinical Question

Population

Participants with postoperative pain after bunionectomy were enrolled. The registry record reports 322 participants enrolled; the primary endpoint analysis included randomized participants in the Intent-to-Treat population who had an observed SPID-48 value. The number excluded from that endpoint analysis because of missing values is not reported in the registry record.

Intervention

Participants received buprenorphine sublingual spray at 0.5 mg, 0.25 mg, or 0.125 mg three times daily (TID) for two days. The trial was designed to compare the doses with placebo.

Comparator

The comparator was placebo-matching buprenorphine sublingual spray, given TID for two days. The randomized, double-blind, parallel-group design placed participants in one assigned treatment group.

Primary question

Did pain intensity over the period from 0 to 48 hours differ between each buprenorphine dose group and placebo, as measured by the Numeric Rating Scale Summed Pain Intensity Difference (NRS SPID-48)? The registry record posts least-squares mean estimates and ANCOVA comparisons for this endpoint.

3. Trial Design

This was a randomized, double-blind, parallel-group, placebo-controlled Phase 3 study sponsored by INSYS Therapeutics Inc. Its stated objective was to evaluate the analgesic efficacy of buprenorphine sublingual spray compared with placebo among participants with postoperative pain after bunionectomy. The registry record lists 322 participants enrolled and a completed study. It lists the start date as 2016-01-29 and primary completion as 2016-06-24.

Four groups are described: placebo and buprenorphine at 0.5 mg, 0.25 mg, or 0.125 mg TID. Each group’s treatment description specifies sublingual spray administered three times daily for two days. Double masking means the study was recorded as double-blind; further details about who was masked or how masking was maintained are not reported in the registry record.

The primary outcome was a continuous measure of pain intensity accumulated across 0 to 48 hours. The registry record reports least-squares means with standard errors by group and ANCOVA comparisons against placebo. It specifies treatment and site as main effects and baseline pain intensity as a covariate. The analysis population was randomized participants in the Intent-to-Treat population without missing SPID-48 values; missing values were not imputed.

The registry record does not report the trial’s original sample-size justification, the planned analysis population beyond the stated endpoint definition, or whether interim analyses were conducted. It also does not report allocation concealment or further protocol details. These omissions limit what can be inferred about the planning and conduct of the analysis from the registry record alone.

4. Participant Flow and Accounting

The registry reports how participants moved through each stage of the study. All counts below are exactly as posted; missing counts are not inferred from other stages.

Overall Study

StagePlaceboBuprenorphine 0.5 mg TIDBuprenorphine 0.25 mg TIDBuprenorphine 0.125 mg TID
STARTED79818082
COMPLETED75717577
NOT COMPLETED41055

Reasons for not completing this period:

ReasonPlaceboBuprenorphine 0.5 mg TIDBuprenorphine 0.25 mg TIDBuprenorphine 0.125 mg TID
Adverse Event0831
Lack of Efficacy4014
Lost to Follow-up0100
Withdrawal by Subject0110

Analysis population for the primary outcome, as defined in the registry: All randomized participants from the Intent-to-Treat (ITT) Population who did not have missing SPID-48 values. Missing SPID-48 data were not imputed.

5. Baseline Characteristics

The table reproduces the baseline characteristics posted in the registry, which describe the participants analysed at baseline and help show whether the randomized groups were comparable.

Population: Safety Population included all participants who were treated with the study drug.

CharacteristicUnitPlaceboBuprenorphine 0.5 mg TIDBuprenorphine 0.25 mg TIDBuprenorphine 0.125 mg TIDTotal
Participants analysed79818082322
Age, Continuousyears45.3 (SD 14.55)43.7 (SD 14.17)45.6 (SD 11.78)48.4 (SD 11.75)45.7 (SD 13.17)
Sex: Female, Male: FemaleParticipants63646463254
Sex: Female, Male: MaleParticipants1617161968

6. Primary Endpoint

The registry lists the primary outcome as Numeric Rating Scale (NRS) Summed Pain Intensity Difference (SPID) Over 0 to 48 Hours After Time 0 (NRS SPID-48), measured over Baseline and 0 to 48 hours after Time 0.

ElementRegistry entry
Result typeLeast Squares Mean
Measure of spreadStandard Error
Unitunits on a scale
Endpoint classificationContinuous Endpoint

The primary endpoint, NRS SPID-48, combines pain-intensity differences across the period from 0 to 48 hours after the first dose. Participants rated pain on an 11-point Numeric Rating Scale (NRS), from 0=no pain to 10=worst possible pain. A pain-intensity difference is the Time 0 pain score minus the score at a later assessment. Those differences are multiplied by the time elapsed since the prior assessment and summed across the measurement period.

Under this definition, a positive SPID indicates reduction in pain intensity relative to Time 0, while a negative score indicates an increase. The stated range for SPID-48 is -480 to 480. Because the measure accumulates differences over time, it reflects both the direction and duration of changes rather than a single pain rating. This can be useful when the question concerns pain experience across a defined observation period.

In general, an accumulated endpoint can retain information from multiple assessments, but its interpretation depends on the assessment schedule and the calculation rule. The registry record describes assessments at multiple time points up to 48 hours but does not enumerate the full schedule in the endpoint description. The primary endpoint analysis used ANCOVA, including treatment and site as main effects and baseline pain intensity as a covariate. The analysis excluded randomized participants with missing SPID-48 values, and those values were not imputed.

7. Results Posted in the Registry

Mean difference: Buprenorphine 0.5 mg TID

81.93

95% CI: 53.62 to 110.24

Recalculated from the posted summary statistics

Primary outcome by arm, with 95% confidence intervals
Primary outcome by arm with 95% confidence intervals57.486.7116145174204Placebo (n=75)Buprenorphine 0.5 mg TID (n=72)Buprenorphine 0.25 mg TID (n=75)Buprenorphine 0.125 mg TID (n=77)units on a scale (95% CI)
Treatment effect versus the control arm
Forest plot of mean difference vs control (95% CI)Buprenorphine 0.5 mg TIDBuprenorphine 0.25 mg TIDBuprenorphine 0.125 mg TID-8.8217426893119mean difference vs control (95% CI)

8. Secondary Efficacy Endpoints

The registry also posts results for secondary outcomes. For each outcome below, the endpoint type, the test applied to the posted summary statistics, the result and its interpretation are given in turn. Secondary endpoints are usually not adjusted for multiple testing, so they support rather than confirm the primary finding.

Secondary outcomeTypeEffect measureEstimate (95% CI)Planning size, 80% power
Percentage of Participants Using Rescue Medication for PainBinary EndpointRisk difference-41.9 pts (-53.3 to -30.6)15 per arm

Percentage of Participants Using Rescue Medication for Pain

Treatment effect versus the control arm
Forest plot of risk difference (percentage points) vs control (95% CI)Buprenorphine 0.5 mg TIDBuprenorphine 0.25 mg TID-58-45-33-20-8.104.26risk difference (percentage points) vs control (95% CI)

The registry lists a broad set of secondary outcomes, including pain intensity and pain-intensity difference at selected follow-up times, summed pain-intensity differences, total pain relief, onset and peak timing, pain-relief categories, and rescue-medication use. Taken together, these measures examine pain from different angles: point-in-time ratings, accumulated changes, reported relief, timing, and use of additional pain medication. Their overall role is to add context to the primary 0-to-48-hour accumulated pain measure, rather than to replace it.

The posted rescue-medication results generally follow the pattern of the primary endpoint: the 0.5 mg TID group has a lower reported proportion using rescue medication than placebo, while the two lower-dose groups are closer to placebo. This provides a related but distinct outcome, since rescue-medication use is not the same measure as pain intensity. The registry record lists 14 secondary outcomes, but detailed results for all listed outcomes are not included in the available record. Unreported results should not be inferred from the primary endpoint.

Some secondary comparisons have unadjusted statistical results. When many outcomes or comparisons are assessed, the chance of obtaining at least one apparently notable result by chance can increase. In general, multiplicity procedures can address that issue, but the registry record does not report whether the secondary analyses used a multiplicity adjustment or a prespecified hierarchy. For that reason, unadjusted secondary findings carry less weight than the designated primary endpoint and should be viewed as supportive or exploratory rather than conclusive.

The secondary outcomes can help characterize whether different measurements point in a broadly similar direction, but they do not independently establish a treatment effect. They may also differ in populations, assessment times, missing-data patterns, and statistical properties. Further details about those analysis choices are not reported in the registry record. Their interpretation therefore depends on the endpoint definitions and analysis methods as well as the primary result.

Secondary outcomes registered for this trial, for reference (only those above were recalculated):

9. Statistical Interpretation

Clinical Biostats interpretation

The posted primary-endpoint least-squares mean was 89.4 for placebo, 171.3 for buprenorphine 0.5 mg TID, 125.6 for 0.25 mg TID, and 124.8 for 0.125 mg TID. Positive values indicate reductions in pain intensity under the endpoint definition. The sponsor’s ANCOVA comparisons report positive mean differences versus placebo for each buprenorphine group: 81.93 for 0.5 mg TID, 36.18 for 0.25 mg TID, and 35.46 for 0.125 mg TID.

The sponsor reports 95% confidence intervals of 53.82 to 110.04 for 0.5 mg TID, 8.43 to 63.93 for 0.25 mg TID, and 7.86 to 63.05 for 0.125 mg TID. The corresponding reported p-values are < 0.001, 0.011, and 0.012. These estimates describe the posted model-based contrasts, not a guarantee that the same differences would occur in another study or population. The confidence intervals express uncertainty about the estimated contrasts under the analysis model.

The estimated contrast is larger for the 0.5 mg TID group than for either lower-dose group in the posted results. The registry record does not establish whether differences among active doses were tested directly, and no such direct comparisons are posted in the reported analyses. Comparisons against placebo therefore should not be read as formal evidence that one active dose differs from another.

The registry also posts rescue-medication use as a secondary outcome. Its general pattern is consistent with a lower proportion using rescue medication in the 0.5 mg TID group than in placebo, while the two lower-dose groups are closer to placebo. The secondary results are not a substitute for the primary endpoint and should be interpreted cautiously because multiplicity handling is not reported in the registry record.

These results describe statistical estimates in a particular short-duration, postoperative pain study. They do not by themselves establish the clinical importance of the differences, explain how an individual participant might respond, or support conclusions about treatment beyond the studied setting and duration. Those matters require evidence and context not reported in the registry record.

10. Statistical Methods Explained

The primary endpoint is continuous: each participant’s SPID-48 is a numerical score, and the group summaries are least-squares means. A least-squares mean is a model-based group estimate that accounts for the covariates and factors included in the analysis. It is not simply the raw arithmetic mean unless the model and data make those quantities coincide. The registry record reports standard errors for the group estimates: 10.11 for placebo, 10.32 for buprenorphine 0.5 mg TID, 10.1 for 0.25 mg TID, and 9.944 for 0.125 mg TID.

The primary analysis used analysis of covariance (ANCOVA). In general, ANCOVA estimates group differences while adjusting for specified covariates. Here, the record says treatment and site were included as main effects and baseline pain intensity was included as the covariate. Baseline adjustment can account for initial differences in the measured outcome, while including site allows the model to account for site-related variation. The registry record does not give further details of the model specification, such as whether interactions or additional covariates were considered.

The comparisons are reported as least-squares mean differences between each buprenorphine dose and placebo. A positive difference in this endpoint means the estimated SPID-48 is higher in the buprenorphine group than in placebo; the endpoint definition associates positive scores with reduced pain relative to Time 0. The differences are model-based estimates, and their uncertainty is described with 95% confidence intervals. A confidence interval gives a range of values compatible with the data and the statistical model at the stated confidence level. It does not represent the range of individual participant outcomes.

The reported p-values quantify how incompatible the observed contrast is with a null hypothesis of no difference under the analysis assumptions. They do not measure the probability that the null hypothesis is true, nor do they describe the size or clinical importance of an effect. The registry reports p-values from the ANCOVA comparisons, while a separate simple recalculation uses posted summary statistics and is explicitly unadjusted. For understanding the trial’s stated analysis, the ANCOVA results are the relevant posted results.

In general, variance describes how widely individual outcomes vary, while a standard error describes uncertainty in an estimated mean or contrast. The registry provides standard errors for the arm estimates. The simple recalculation estimates a pooled standard deviation from those standard errors and sample sizes, and marks that estimate as approximate. Standard deviations and standard errors are not interchangeable: the former describe outcome variability among participants, while the latter describe precision of an estimate. Any standardized effect based on the approximate pooled standard deviation is therefore an additional summary, not the sponsor’s primary analysis.

For the simple recalculations, the estimated differences and confidence intervals are close to the sponsor’s posted ANCOVA comparisons, but they are not identical in every detail. These recalculations do not adjust for treatment, site, and baseline pain intensity as the ANCOVA does. They should be treated as a secondary check using posted summary statistics, not as a replacement for the sponsor’s model-based analysis. The registry record does not report a discrepancy flag for these results.

The sample-size illustrations use a two-sided significance level of 0.05, equal allocation between the two arms, and a normal approximation. They consider effects that are stated fractions of the observed effect. In general, power is the probability of detecting an effect of a specified size under the assumptions of a statistical model and study design, if that effect is present. The illustrations are planning calculations based on observed effects, not evidence about the power the completed trial actually had. The trial’s own original sample-size justification and design assumptions are not reported in the registry record.

For continuous outcomes, a mean difference is directly expressed in the outcome’s units. For the secondary rescue-medication outcome, the data are binary at the participant level: a participant either used rescue medication during the stated window or did not. In general, a risk difference expresses the difference between proportions in two groups, while a confidence interval describes uncertainty in that difference. The posted secondary calculations are unadjusted; no adjusted model or multiplicity correction for those comparisons is reported.

Over-dispersion is a general concern when observed variability exceeds what a statistical model assumes. In binary or count settings, ignoring over-dispersion can make standard errors too small and confidence intervals too narrow. The registry record does not identify over-dispersion as a feature of the primary continuous endpoint analysis, so it should not be assumed to have affected these results. More broadly, model assumptions matter because uncertainty estimates depend on whether the statistical model reasonably describes the data.

11. Confidence Intervals and Precision

The sponsor’s 95% confidence intervals for the primary mean differences are 53.82 to 110.04 for buprenorphine 0.5 mg TID versus placebo, 8.43 to 63.93 for 0.25 mg TID versus placebo, and 7.86 to 63.05 for 0.125 mg TID versus placebo. Each interval is entirely above zero, which is consistent with a positive estimated difference under the reported ANCOVA model. The intervals nevertheless span a range of possible contrast values; the point estimates should not be treated as exact population effects.

In general, a narrower confidence interval indicates greater precision, while a wider interval indicates more uncertainty about the size of the estimate. Precision is influenced by factors including sample size and outcome variability. The posted interval for the 0.5 mg TID contrast is centered around a larger estimated difference than the intervals for the lower-dose contrasts. The intervals for the two lower-dose comparisons overlap substantially, but overlap alone is not a formal test of whether those doses differ. No direct active-dose contrast is reported.

The confidence intervals are conditional on the statistical model and analysis population used. The primary endpoint analysis included randomized participants without missing SPID-48 values, and missing values were not imputed. The number of participants excluded from that analysis for missing endpoint data is not reported in the registry record. That absence prevents assessment of how missing endpoint values might affect precision or the representativeness of the analyzed population.

Confidence intervals address sampling uncertainty under the analysis assumptions, not every source of uncertainty. They do not address unreported choices in study design, possible bias, generalizability beyond the study setting, or the clinical importance of a difference. The reported intervals are a useful guide to statistical precision, but interpretation should also consider the outcome definition, analysis population, and the registry’s incomplete reporting of some design and analysis details.

12. Planning a Similar Trial: Sample Size

This is a planning illustration, not a re-evaluation of the original trial. It asks: if a new study wanted to detect a difference like the one observed, or a smaller one, how large would it need to be? It is deliberately not “observed power” of the finished trial, which is not a meaningful quantity.

Effect to detectParticipants per arm, 80% powerParticipants per arm, 90% power
100% of the observed effect1824
75% of the observed effect3243
50% of the observed effect7296
Sample size needed versus the size of the effect to detect
Sample size needed versus size of effect to detect205010020040%60%80%100%80% power90% powersize of effect to detect, as % of the effect observed (log vertical scale: participants per arm)
Method and assumptions. Two-sided α = 0.05, 1:1 allocation, two-sample comparison of means with the pooled standard deviation. Standard deviation was approximated from model-based standard errors, so treat it as rough. Calculated for the comparison: Buprenorphine 0.5 mg TID.

The planning illustrations report participants per arm for the two-arm comparisons, not total participants across the trial. They are based on a two-sided significance level of 0.05, equal allocation between the two arms, and a normal approximation. The effect to detect is set to the stated fraction of the observed effect. The original design assumptions and sample-size justification for the completed trial are not reported in the registry record.

The 80% power column gives the number of participants per arm estimated to provide an 80% chance of detecting the selected effect under those planning assumptions. The 90% power column gives the corresponding number per arm for a 90% chance. These are planning illustrations rather than descriptions of the completed trial’s design. This is not observed power.

Each planning row uses a different portion of the observed effect as the target effect. The illustrations show that smaller effects need more participants to detect under the same assumptions. For example, the figures for planning for 50% of the observed effect are larger than the figures for planning for 100% of the observed effect. This follows the general statistical relationship between effect size and sample requirements: when the target difference is smaller, more information is needed to distinguish it from random variation.

The calculations are not guarantees that a future study will achieve the stated power. They rely on assumptions about allocation, significance level, effect size, and the normal approximation, and do not include design features that are not listed in the planning assumptions. They should be read as illustrative scenarios tied to the observed estimates, not as evidence about the original rationale for enrollment.

13. How the Sample Size Is Derived

Power is the probability that a study of a given size rejects the null hypothesis when a specific true effect exists. It depends on four things: the effect to detect, the variability of the outcome, the significance level (here a two-sided α of 0.05, so z1−α/2 = 1.960) and the desired power (z1−β = 0.842 for 80% and 1.282 for 90%).

Formula

n = 2 (z1−α/2 + z1−β)2 σ2 / Δ2

n is the number of participants in each arm, Δ is the difference in means to detect and σ is the common standard deviation.

Worked calculation for this trial

  1. Observed difference Δ = 81.930; pooled standard deviation σ = 87.540.
  2. n = 2 × (1.96 + 0.842)2 × 87.5402 / 81.9302 = 17.9, rounded up to 18 participants per arm for 80% power.

The smaller-effect rows in the table above repeat the same calculation with the effect multiplied by 0.75 and 0.5 (for ratios, applied to the logarithm of the ratio).

R code

alpha <- 0.05
z_a   <- qnorm(1 - alpha / 2)          # two-sided
delta <- 81.93                      # observed difference in means
sigma <- 87.5404632912985                     # pooled standard deviation
n_per_arm <- function(power, frac = 1) {
  ceiling(round(2 * (z_a + qnorm(power))^2 * sigma^2 / (delta * frac)^2, 6))
}
for (f in c(1, 0.75, 0.5))
  cat(sprintf("%3.0f%% of observed effect: n per arm = %s (80%% power), %s (90%% power)\n", 100 * f,
              format(n_per_arm(0.80, f), big.mark = ","), format(n_per_arm(0.90, f), big.mark = ",")))

# Check against R's built-in function (t-based, so very slightly larger)
cat("power.t.test:", round(power.t.test(delta = delta, sd = sigma, power = 0.80)$n, 1), "\n")

# Simulation: exact two-sample t-test using simulated means and variances
set.seed(2634788)
n    <- n_per_arm(0.80)
reps <- 20000
m_diff <- rnorm(reps, delta, sigma * sqrt(2 / n))             # difference in sample means
s2     <- sigma^2 * rchisq(reps, 2 * (n - 1)) / (2 * (n - 1))   # pooled sample variance
tstat  <- m_diff / sqrt(s2 * 2 / n)
cat(sprintf("Simulated power at n = %s per arm: %.3f (%d replicates)\n", format(n, big.mark = ","), mean(abs(tstat) > qt(0.975, 2 * (n - 1))), reps))

Output from running the code

100% of observed effect: n per arm = 18 (80% power), 24 (90% power)
 75% of observed effect: n per arm = 32 (80% power), 43 (90% power)
 50% of observed effect: n per arm = 72 (80% power), 96 (90% power)
power.t.test: 18.9 
Simulated power at n = 18 per arm: 0.779 (20000 replicates)

The simulation draws many sets of group means and variances at the planned sample size and counts how often the two-sample t-test rejects the null. It should land close to the target power; at very small required sample sizes it can fall below it, because the normal approximation is rough there.

Very small required sample. The formula gives a very small requirement because the observed effect is very large relative to the variability. Normal-approximation formulas are unreliable at such sizes, and the simulation above shows the power actually achieved. An exact or simulation-based design would be needed in practice.

14. Analyses Reported by the Sponsor

MethodEstimate95% CIP-value
ANCOVALS Mean Difference 81.9353.82 to 110.04< 0.001
ANCOVALS Mean Difference 36.188.43 to 63.930.011
ANCOVALS Mean Difference 35.467.86 to 63.050.012

The registry’s own reported primary analyses use ANCOVA and present least-squares mean differences against placebo. The sponsor reports 81.93 for buprenorphine 0.5 mg TID, 36.18 for 0.25 mg TID, and 35.46 for 0.125 mg TID, with the confidence intervals and p-values stated in the primary-endpoint results. Those model-based comparisons account for treatment and site and adjust for baseline pain intensity, as described in the record.

A separate simple recalculation from posted arm summaries gives estimates of 81.93, 36.18, and 35.45 for the same comparisons. Its intervals and p-values are unadjusted and are not exactly the same as the sponsor’s ANCOVA intervals and p-values. The recalculation is useful as a check on the scale and direction of the reported contrasts, but it does not reproduce the adjusted analysis. The sponsor’s analysis is the trial’s reported analysis; the simple recalculation should not be mistaken for an alternative primary result.

The registry record does not flag a discrepancy between the recalculation and the sponsor’s analysis. Small differences in displayed values do not establish a substantive contradiction, especially when methods differ. Interpretation should therefore be anchored in the reported ANCOVA estimates and their intervals, while recognizing that no additional analysis details beyond those in the record are available.

15. Multiplicity, Missing Data and Analysis Populations

The registry record identifies one primary endpoint, NRS SPID-48, and lists numerous secondary outcomes. It reports ANCOVA comparisons for the primary endpoint and a collection of secondary outcomes, including repeated pain assessments and measures of pain relief and medication use. The record does not report a multiplicity adjustment, a testing hierarchy, or a strategy for controlling the overall type I error across the primary and secondary analyses. Consequently, the primary result has a clearer designated role, while individual unadjusted secondary findings require caution.

In general, multiplicity arises when several hypotheses are tested. The more comparisons made, the greater the chance that one or more results may appear statistically notable even if there is no corresponding effect. Methods such as prespecified hierarchies or adjusted significance thresholds can address this concern, but the use of any such method in this trial is not reported in the registry record. It is not appropriate to assume that the posted secondary p-values were adjusted.

The primary endpoint population included all randomized participants from the Intent-to-Treat population who did not have missing SPID-48 values. The record explicitly states that missing SPID-48 data were not imputed. It does not report the number of randomized participants with missing primary endpoint values or give details about the reasons for missingness. Without those details, the influence of missing data on the estimated contrasts cannot be assessed from the registry record.

In general, a complete-case analysis can be sensitive to how missingness relates to treatment and outcome. If participants with missing data differ systematically from those with observed outcomes, the analyzed group may not fully represent all randomized participants. This is a general methodological consideration, not a claim that such bias occurred in this trial. The registry record also does not report interim analyses or additional sensitivity analyses for missing outcomes.

The record’s description of baseline adjustment and the included treatment and site effects is useful, but further model diagnostics and analysis-plan details are not reported. This limits assessment of whether all modeling and missing-data decisions were prespecified or whether alternative assumptions were examined.

16. Safety Results

The registry reports serious adverse events as affected participants divided by participants at risk.

ArmParticipants with serious adverse eventsParticipants at riskPercentage
Placebo0790.0%
Buprenorphine 0.5 mg TID1811.2%
Buprenorphine 0.25 mg TID0800.0%
Buprenorphine 0.125 mg TID0820.0%
Participants with at least one serious adverse event
Serious adverse events by armPlacebo0.0%Buprenorphine 0.5 mg TID1.2%Buprenorphine 0.25 mg TID0.0%Buprenorphine 0.125 mg TID0.0%% of participants with at least one serious adverse event

Other (non-serious) adverse events

Participants with at least one non-serious event at or above the registry's 5% reporting threshold.

ArmParticipants affected of at risk
Placebo38 of 79
Buprenorphine 0.5 mg TID76 of 81
Buprenorphine 0.25 mg TID67 of 80
Buprenorphine 0.125 mg TID57 of 82

Most frequent serious adverse event terms

Event termOrgan systemPlaceboBuprenorphine 0.5 mg TIDBuprenorphine 0.25 mg TIDBuprenorphine 0.125 mg TID
AngioedemaSkin and subcutaneous tissue disorders0 of 791 of 810 of 800 of 82

Most frequent non-serious adverse event terms

Event termOrgan systemPlaceboBuprenorphine 0.5 mg TIDBuprenorphine 0.25 mg TIDBuprenorphine 0.125 mg TID
NauseaGastrointestinal disorders13 of 7968 of 8147 of 8036 of 82
VomitingGastrointestinal disorders4 of 7959 of 8133 of 8024 of 82
DizzinessNervous system disorders7 of 7944 of 8126 of 8018 of 82
HeadacheNervous system disorders9 of 7913 of 8123 of 8015 of 82
Oxygen saturation decreasedInvestigations4 of 797 of 818 of 806 of 82
ConstipationGastrointestinal disorders1 of 798 of 816 of 809 of 82
SomnolenceNervous system disorders0 of 7911 of 816 of 806 of 82
PruritusSkin and subcutaneous tissue disorders1 of 7911 of 812 of 802 of 82
HyperhidrosisSkin and subcutaneous tissue disorders0 of 798 of 811 of 802 of 82
Hot flushVascular disorders1 of 795 of 812 of 802 of 82

Serious events with the highest arm-level rate: angioedema (1.2%).

Do not overextend the safety comparison. Serious-adverse-event counts are safety observations, not efficacy outcomes, and should not be combined with the primary result into a single benefit-risk number.

The registry reports serious adverse events among participants at risk in each group: 0 of 79 for placebo, 1 of 81 for buprenorphine 0.5 mg TID, 0 of 80 for buprenorphine 0.25 mg TID, and 0 of 82 for buprenorphine 0.125 mg TID. The single serious adverse event is listed under angioedema, with a reported term percentage of 1.2%. These are counts in the registry record, not estimates of comparative risk with uncertainty intervals.

The small number of reported serious events limits the precision of any between-group safety interpretation. Zero reported events in a group does not establish that the risk is zero, and the registry record does not provide a formal comparative safety analysis. The deaths field has no reported value; deaths are therefore not reported in the registry record, rather than established as absent.

These figures do not establish whether an event was caused by study treatment. The registry record gives event counts but does not provide enough detail to assess timing, relatedness, severity beyond the serious-event designation, or clinical course. They should be read as descriptive safety reporting for this trial and its stated treatment period.

17. What the Result Does, and Does Not, Mean

The primary results show positive model-based differences in NRS SPID-48 for each buprenorphine dose compared with placebo. Under the endpoint definition, positive SPID values indicate reduced pain relative to Time 0, and a positive contrast indicates a higher estimated SPID in the buprenorphine group. The sponsor’s confidence intervals for all three comparisons lie above zero. These are findings about the measured outcome and analysis in this particular trial.

They do not establish how large a difference would matter to participants. The registry record does not state a threshold for clinical importance or a minimal clinically important difference. Statistical evidence about a mean contrast and judgments about practical importance are separate questions. The results also do not describe the experience of every participant; group estimates can conceal substantial variation among individuals.

The study evaluated postoperative pain after bunionectomy and used treatment for two days. The record does not establish whether the estimates apply to other types of pain, other treatment durations, or other populations. Nor do placebo comparisons establish whether the active doses differ from each other; direct active-dose comparisons are not reported.

The findings do not amount to medical advice or a recommendation for an individual. They do not resolve all questions about benefit and harm, and the serious adverse event counts are too limited to provide a complete account of safety. Missing primary endpoint values were not imputed, and the number of missing values is not reported. Multiplicity handling for the secondary outcomes is also not reported. Those limits should be considered alongside the statistical estimates.

18. Why This Trial Matters Statistically

This trial illustrates how an accumulated continuous endpoint can represent repeated measurements across a clinically defined observation window. NRS SPID-48 combines pain-intensity differences and the time between assessments, so its interpretation depends on both the scale and the accumulation rule. The registry provides the definition and the analysis model, allowing readers to distinguish this outcome from a single pain score at one time point.

The report also illustrates the distinction between unadjusted summaries and covariate-adjusted estimates. The sponsor’s primary comparison uses ANCOVA, including treatment and site and adjusting for baseline pain intensity. A simple recalculation from group summaries can check the broad scale of the differences, but it does not replicate the sponsor’s model. Recognizing that distinction is central to reading registry results accurately.

Confidence intervals add information beyond a p-value by showing the range of contrast values compatible with the data and the model. The posted intervals are useful for judging statistical precision, while the absence of a reported clinical-importance threshold prevents a direct conclusion about practical significance. The sample-size illustrations similarly demonstrate how smaller target effects require larger planned groups under stated assumptions, without revealing the rationale for the original enrollment.

Finally, the record makes some important limitations visible: primary endpoint data were not imputed, details about missing observations are absent, and multiplicity handling for secondary outcomes is not reported. These are not reasons to dismiss the posted estimates, but they define what can and cannot be concluded from the registry entry. Careful statistical reading involves both the estimates and the boundaries of the available reporting.

19. Limitations

The registry record does not report the original sample-size justification, so the enrollment cannot be linked from this record to a prespecified target effect or power calculation. The planning illustrations based on observed effects do not fill that gap. Interim analysis details are also not reported.

The primary endpoint analysis excluded participants with missing SPID-48 values, and no imputation was performed. The number of missing values and the reasons for missingness are not reported. This leaves uncertainty about the extent to which the analyzed population represents all randomized participants.

The record does not describe multiplicity control for the secondary outcomes, nor does it report detailed results for every listed secondary endpoint. The posted unadjusted secondary comparisons should therefore not be treated as equivalent in evidential weight to the designated primary analysis. Direct comparisons among active doses are not reported, so their relative differences cannot be inferred from comparisons against placebo alone.

The trial addressed postoperative pain after bunionectomy and a two-day treatment course. Generalization beyond that setting or duration is not established by the registry record. More detailed information on masking procedures, allocation concealment, protocol deviations, analysis diagnostics, and adverse-event relatedness is not reported. The serious adverse event counts are sparse and are descriptive rather than a definitive comparative safety assessment.

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23. Record Summary

NCT02634788 is a completed, randomized, double-blind, parallel-group, placebo-controlled Phase 3 trial sponsored by INSYS Therapeutics Inc. The registry record lists 322 participants enrolled and describes buprenorphine sublingual spray at 0.5 mg, 0.25 mg, or 0.125 mg TID for two days, compared with placebo.

The primary endpoint was NRS SPID-48, analyzed using ANCOVA with treatment and site as main effects and baseline pain intensity as a covariate. The sponsor reports positive least-squares mean differences versus placebo for all three dose groups. Primary endpoint data were not imputed for participants with missing values.

Secondary outcomes covered additional pain assessments and related measures, including rescue-medication use. The registry also reports serious adverse event counts, with one event in the 0.5 mg TID group and none in the other listed groups. Important details, including the original sample-size justification, missing-data counts, and multiplicity handling, are not reported in the registry record.

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