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Hepatic Insufficiency, Renal Insufficiency Phase 1 Registry Results NCT03172884

Study of Copanlisib in Hepatic or Renal Impairment: Complete Statistical Analysis

This analysis examines a completed, open-label, non-randomized phase 1 study of single-dose copanlisib in people with hepatic or renal impairment and healthy participants. The primary endpoint was maximum observed plasma concentration; numerical pharmacokinetic results are not reported in the registry record.

Trial start: 2017-06-14  ·  Enrollment: 30  ·  Sponsor: Bayer
Scope of this record

This page provides an independent statistical analysis and educational interpretation of publicly reported results. ClinicalTrials.gov provides the official trial registry record. Numerical trial results on this page are restricted to the results posted in the ClinicalTrials.gov record; calculations added by Clinical Biostats are labelled as such.

1. Trial at a Glance

This page covers the registry results for Study of Copanlisib in Hepatic or Renal Impairment (NCT03172884), a non-randomized phase 1 study. The primary outcome is Maximum Observed Concentration (Cmax) of Copanlisib in Plasma..

30
Enrollment
Phase 1
n/a
Arms
In the primary outcome
n/a
Effect
No re-analysis shown
n/a
95% CI
See limitations
FeatureRegistry value
ClinicalTrials.gov identifierNCT03172884
PhasePhase 1
ConditionHepatic Insufficiency, Renal Insufficiency
AllocationNon-Randomized
Design modelParallel
MaskingNone (open label)
Enrollment30
Arms in the primary outcomen/a
Lead sponsorBayer
Results postedYes

2. Clinical Question

Population

The study enrolled participants in groups defined by hepatic or renal function, alongside healthy participants. Hepatic impairment groups were classified as moderate, Child-Pugh B (score 7-9), or severe, Child-Pugh C (score 10-15), at screening. Severe renal impairment was defined as eGFR 15-29 mL/min/1.73 m² at screening, based on the MDRD equation. The registry lists an enrollment of 30.

Intervention

All groups received copanlisib, identified in the registry as ALIQOPA or BAY80-6946. The study is described as a single-dose study. The registry record does not report the administered dose in the information available for this analysis.

Comparator

The impaired-function groups were considered in comparison with healthy participants. This was not a randomized comparison: participants were assigned to groups according to their functional status rather than random allocation. The groups therefore should not be treated as interchangeable or as a like-for-like randomized control comparison.

Primary question

The primary endpoint was maximum observed concentration (Cmax) of copanlisib in plasma. The study objective was to evaluate pharmacokinetics and safety in participants with impaired hepatic or renal function in comparison with healthy participants. Numerical group-level Cmax results and the registry’s statistical comparison results are not reported in the registry record.

3. Trial Design

NCT03172884 is a completed phase 1 study titled “Study of Copanlisib in Hepatic or Renal Impairment.” Its official title describes an open-label, non-randomized, single-dose study comparing pharmacokinetics and safety in participants with impaired hepatic or renal function and healthy participants. The design is listed as parallel, with no masking and non-random allocation. The sponsor was Bayer. The registry lists a start date of 2017-06-14 and a primary completion date of 2020-03-13.

The groups were healthy participants, participants with moderate hepatic impairment, participants with severe hepatic impairment, and participants with severe renal impairment. The registry defines the hepatic categories using Child-Pugh classification at screening: Child-Pugh B (score 7-9) for moderate impairment and Child-Pugh C (score 10-15) for severe impairment. Severe renal impairment was defined using eGFR 15-29 mL/min/1.73 m² at screening, calculated with the MDRD equation. The registry record does not report the criteria used to select the healthy participants.

Because allocation was non-randomized, the group comparison is observational within a clinical study rather than a randomized treatment contrast. Differences in participant characteristics may accompany differences in organ function. The record does not report a randomization procedure, masking, or a protocol-level rationale for the group sizes. It lists total enrollment as 30, but the posted information does not give a numerical primary endpoint result for each group.

The primary outcome was plasma Cmax of copanlisib. Secondary outcomes included Cmax and area under the concentration-time curve for metabolite M-1, as well as treatment-emergent adverse events and their severity. The registry lists 7 outcome measures and 9 analyses. The detailed analysis specifications and the numerical pharmacokinetic results are not reported in the registry record.

4. Participant Flow and Accounting

The registry reports how participants moved through each stage of the study. All counts below are exactly as posted; missing counts are not inferred from other stages.

Before assignment: 50 participants were screened in study. 16 were screen failure and 4 withdrew from study. 30 participants were assigned to study arms.

Overall Study

StageModerate Hepatic Impairment GroupSevere Hepatic Impairment GroupSevere Renal Impairment GroupHealthy Participants
STARTED8688
COMPLETED8688
NOT COMPLETED0000

5. Baseline Characteristics

The table reproduces the baseline characteristics posted in the registry, which describe the participants analysed at baseline and help show whether the randomized groups were comparable.

CharacteristicUnitModerate Hepatic Impairment GroupSevere Hepatic Impairment GroupSevere Renal Impairment GroupHealthy ParticipantsTotal
Participants analysed868830
Age, Continuousyears65.5 (SD 9.4)47.5 (SD 11.1)65.8 (SD 12.1)60.9 (SD 6.6)60.7 (SD 11.7)
Age, Customized: In uteroParticipants00000
Age, Customized: Preterm newborn infants (gestational age < 37 wks)Participants00000
Age, Customized: Newborns (0-27 days)Participants00000
Age, Customized: Infants and toddlers (28 days-23 months)Participants00000
Age, Customized: Children (2-11 years)Participants00000
Age, Customized: Adolescents (12-17 years)Participants00000
Age, Customized: Adults (18-64 years)Participants463619
Age, Customized: From 65-84 yearsParticipants405211
Age, Customized: 85 years and overParticipants00000
Sex: Female, Male: FemaleParticipants31239
Sex: Female, Male: MaleParticipants556521
Ethnicity (NIH/OMB): Hispanic or LatinoParticipants00000
Ethnicity (NIH/OMB): Not Hispanic or LatinoParticipants868830
Ethnicity (NIH/OMB): Unknown or Not ReportedParticipants00000
Race (NIH/OMB): American Indian or Alaska NativeParticipants00000
Race (NIH/OMB): AsianParticipants00000
Race (NIH/OMB): Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific IslanderParticipants00000
Race (NIH/OMB): Black or African AmericanParticipants00000
Race (NIH/OMB): WhiteParticipants868830
Race (NIH/OMB): More than one raceParticipants00000
Race (NIH/OMB): Unknown or Not ReportedParticipants00000
BMIkg/m^227.90 (SD 4.68)27.12 (SD 4.76)26.60 (SD 3.07)26.48 (SD 1.64)27.02 (SD 3.53)

6. Primary Endpoint

The registry lists the primary outcome as Maximum Observed Concentration (Cmax) of Copanlisib in Plasma., measured over before copanlisib administration as well as 10 min and 1 h (end of infusion), 1.5, 2, 2.5, 3, 5, 8, 24, 48, 72, 96, 120 and 168 h after start of infusion.

ElementRegistry entry
Result typeGeometric Mean
Measure of spreadGeometric Coefficient of Variation
Unitμg/L
Endpoint classificationnot reduced to a single comparison

The primary endpoint, maximum observed concentration (Cmax) of copanlisib in plasma, is the highest concentration measured among the blood samples collected after administration. The registry describes sampling before copanlisib administration and at 10 min and 1 h (end of infusion), 1.5, 2, 2.5, 3, 5, 8, 24, 48, 72, 96, 120 and 168 h after start of infusion. Cmax is reported as a geometric mean with geometric coefficient of variation as its dispersion measure.

As a general pharmacokinetic concept, Cmax describes the observed peak concentration over the sampled period. It is used alongside other measures, such as area under the concentration-time curve, because the peak and the overall exposure over time describe different features of a concentration profile. The sampled maximum is dependent on the collection schedule: it is the largest measured value, not necessarily a directly observed concentration at the exact time of the true biological peak.

The registry record does not report the numerical Cmax values by group, the associated geometric coefficients of variation, or the estimated differences or ratios between groups. As a result, the endpoint definition and schedule can be described, but the magnitude and precision of the observed group results cannot be evaluated from the registry information.

7. Why No Re-analysis Is Shown

Reported as posted, not recalculated. Not a randomized comparison (allocation: non-randomized); arms are not a like-for-like control comparison. A result is recalculated only when the posted data support a clean two-arm comparison, so no result is shown beyond what the sponsor posted.

8. Statistical Interpretation

Clinical Biostats interpretation

The study’s primary question concerns copanlisib pharmacokinetics across groups defined by hepatic or renal function, with healthy participants serving as a reference group. The primary endpoint is Cmax, and the study also included outcomes for the metabolite M-1 and treatment-emergent adverse events. However, numerical primary endpoint estimates and their uncertainty are not reported in the registry record. The posted information therefore does not support a quantitative account of how Cmax differed between any impaired-function group and healthy participants.

The design matters when interpreting any group contrast. Participants were not randomly allocated, and group membership reflected hepatic or renal status. Randomization can help balance measured and unmeasured characteristics across treatment groups; a non-randomized comparison does not have that protection. A difference between groups, if quantified, would describe the observed groups and would not by itself show that organ impairment caused the difference. This is especially important when the sample is divided among several distinct functional-status groups.

The stated endpoint uses a geometric mean and geometric coefficient of variation. As a general statistical explanation, geometric summaries are often used for positive measurements with a right-skewed distribution, as can occur with concentration data. The geometric coefficient of variation describes relative dispersion on a multiplicative scale. These summaries communicate central tendency and variability but do not replace the need to see group estimates and an uncertainty measure. Those estimates are not reported in the registry record.

The registry lists enrollment of 30, but enrollment alone does not establish the precision of a pharmacokinetic comparison. Precision depends on the observed variability and the number of participants contributing usable measurements to each analysis. The group-specific analysis counts and uncertainty intervals are not reported in the registry record. No conclusion about statistical significance or the size of a group contrast can be drawn from an enrollment total alone.

Safety information is also limited to counts. In the registry’s adverse-event summary, no serious events are listed as affecting participants in any of the four groups. The “other” affected counts are 0 in the moderate hepatic impairment group, 0 in the severe hepatic impairment group, 2 in the severe renal impairment group, and 2 among healthy participants. These counts do not establish comparative risk, and the registry record does not provide inferential estimates for between-group safety differences. In a small, non-randomized study, descriptive counts should be read as a record of observed events rather than as a definitive comparison.

Overall, the record establishes the study question, design, endpoint, assessment schedule, and selected event counts. It does not report the numerical pharmacokinetic results needed to judge the magnitude or precision of the primary comparison. The interpretation must remain correspondingly limited: the objective was to evaluate pharmacokinetics and safety across organ-function groups, but the registry information does not show the primary endpoint estimates or a statistical conclusion about them.

9. Statistical Methods Explained

What does Cmax represent?

Cmax is the highest measured concentration in a participant’s series of blood samples. In this study, the endpoint was the maximum observed plasma concentration of copanlisib. The registry gives a sampling schedule extending from before administration through 168 h after start of infusion, with multiple samples during and after infusion. As a general concept, more frequent sampling near a concentration peak can better characterize its timing and height, but the maximum recorded value remains tied to the actual sampling times. The record does not report the individual concentration profiles or the time at which each participant reached Cmax.

Why report geometric summaries?

The primary endpoint is specified as a geometric mean with a geometric coefficient of variation. As a general statistical explanation, concentration measurements are positive and can have a multiplicative, right-skewed distribution. A geometric mean summarizes measurements on a logarithmic scale and then expresses the result on the original scale. The geometric coefficient of variation describes spread relative to the geometric mean, rather than spread as an additive distance. This approach can be suitable for pharmacokinetic measurements, but the registry record does not provide the values needed to assess the observed distributions or group variability.

What does the design imply for comparisons?

The study was open-label, parallel, and non-randomized. The groups were defined by organ-function status and included healthy participants as a reference. As a general statistical principle, random assignment helps separate treatment-group differences from differences in participant characteristics. Here there was no randomized assignment to impairment categories, and the categories themselves reflect clinical status. Any comparison should therefore be understood as a comparison between the observed groups, not as a randomized causal estimate. The registry record does not report adjustment methods that might account for differences between groups.

The study is described as a single-dose investigation. A single-dose pharmacokinetic assessment can characterize concentrations after that administration under the study conditions. It does not, by itself, describe repeated-dose exposure or outcomes over a longer treatment course. The dose and details of dosing procedures are not reported in the registry record available for this analysis.

How should variability and uncertainty be read?

A confidence interval, as a general statistical concept, gives a range of values compatible with the data under the assumptions of the analysis. It helps readers distinguish a point estimate from its precision. A narrow interval indicates greater precision than a wide interval, while neither an interval nor a point estimate alone establishes clinical importance. The registry information does not report confidence intervals for the primary endpoint or comparisons, so their precision cannot be assessed.

Variability within a group and uncertainty about a group estimate are related but distinct. A geometric coefficient of variation describes the spread of participant measurements on a relative scale. An interval around a group estimate describes uncertainty in estimating that group’s central value or a contrast. The record identifies the dispersion measure for Cmax but does not report its numerical value or an uncertainty interval. It is therefore not possible to characterize the observed variability or the precision of a group contrast.

For general context, over-dispersion occurs when observed variation is greater than a statistical model expects. A model that fails to account for over-dispersion may understate uncertainty. The registry record does not identify a model for the primary comparison, report a dispersion assessment beyond naming the geometric coefficient of variation, or state that over-dispersion was assessed. This concept should not be taken as a description of what occurred in this study.

What can be inferred from the analysis listing?

The registry lists 7 outcome measures and 9 analyses. These counts indicate that several outcomes and analyses were registered, but they do not describe the statistical procedures used for the primary endpoint. The analysis model, transformation details, covariates, handling of outliers, and rules for selecting a comparison are not reported in the registry record. It would be inappropriate to assume a particular test, model, or adjustment strategy from the endpoint summary alone.

Secondary pharmacokinetic outcomes include maximum observed concentration of metabolite M-1 and its area under the concentration-time curve in plasma from 0 to 168 h. As general concepts, Cmax captures a measured peak, while area under the curve summarizes concentration over a specified period. These endpoints provide different descriptions of exposure. The record names them as outcomes but does not provide their numerical results or analysis estimates.

The adverse-event outcomes concern the number of participants with treatment-emergent adverse events and their severity. Counts describe how many participants were recorded in the relevant categories. Statistical comparisons of such outcomes may use methods suited to categorical data, but the registry record does not specify whether any inferential test or adjusted analysis was conducted. The adverse-event summary should consequently be read descriptively.

No sample-size justification, interim analysis plan, or detailed statistical analysis plan is reported in the registry record. Planning illustrations based on an observed effect, when presented, are not observed power and do not establish that the study was designed to detect a particular effect. The record does not include numerical planning results in the information available for this analysis, and no such values can be interpreted.

10. Multiplicity, Missing Data and Analysis Populations

The registry lists 7 outcome measures and 9 analyses, covering the primary Cmax endpoint, metabolite M-1 pharmacokinetic outcomes, and adverse-event outcomes. When multiple outcomes or comparisons are examined, the chance of at least one apparently notable result can increase. As a general statistical concept, multiplicity procedures can control that chance or otherwise clarify which results are confirmatory and which are exploratory.

The registry record does not report a multiplicity adjustment, a hierarchy of endpoints, or a prespecified strategy for interpreting the multiple analyses. It also does not give the detailed analysis plan needed to determine whether the listed analyses were treated as confirmatory or exploratory. No claim about adjustment or control of false-positive findings is therefore supported.

Missing-data handling is not reported in the registry record. The available information does not state how incomplete concentration profiles, missed sample collections, withdrawals, or unavailable outcome measurements were treated. It also does not report imputation methods or sensitivity analyses for missing observations.

The analysis populations are not described in sufficient detail to identify which participants contributed to each endpoint analysis. The registry lists total enrollment as 30, but does not report group-specific numbers with evaluable Cmax measurements or the denominators used for each pharmacokinetic analysis. The record also does not state whether the primary analysis used all enrolled participants or a defined pharmacokinetic population. These omissions limit assessment of missingness, analysis-set selection, and the precision of the reported results.

11. Safety Results

The registry reports serious adverse events as affected participants divided by participants at risk.

ArmParticipants with serious adverse eventsParticipants at riskPercentage
Moderate Hepatic Impairment Group080.0%
Severe Hepatic Impairment Group060.0%
Severe Renal Impairment Group080.0%
Healthy Participants080.0%

Deaths

ArmDeaths (participants affected of at risk)
Moderate Hepatic Impairment Group0 of 8
Severe Hepatic Impairment Group0 of 6
Severe Renal Impairment Group0 of 8
Healthy Participants0 of 8

Other (non-serious) adverse events

Participants with at least one non-serious event at or above the registry's 1% reporting threshold.

ArmParticipants affected of at risk
Moderate Hepatic Impairment Group0 of 8
Severe Hepatic Impairment Group0 of 6
Severe Renal Impairment Group2 of 8
Healthy Participants2 of 8

Most frequent non-serious adverse event terms

Event termOrgan systemModerate Hepatic Impairment GroupSevere Hepatic Impairment GroupSevere Renal Impairment GroupHealthy Participants
HypertensionVascular disorders0 of 80 of 62 of 81 of 8
Atrial fibrillationCardiac disorders0 of 80 of 60 of 81 of 8
DiarrhoeaGastrointestinal disorders0 of 80 of 61 of 80 of 8
HeadacheNervous system disorders0 of 80 of 60 of 81 of 8
Do not overextend the safety comparison. Serious-adverse-event counts are safety observations, not efficacy outcomes, and should not be combined with the primary result into a single benefit-risk number.

The registry’s adverse-event summary distinguishes serious-event counts from other affected counts for each group. The serious-event counts are 0 for the moderate hepatic impairment group, 0 for the severe hepatic impairment group, 0 for the severe renal impairment group, and 0 for healthy participants. The corresponding numbers at risk are 8, 6, 8, and 8. No deaths are listed in any group.

The “other” affected counts are 0 in the moderate hepatic impairment group, 0 in the severe hepatic impairment group, 2 in the severe renal impairment group, and 2 among healthy participants. The numbers at risk for those groups are 8, 6, 8, and 8, respectively. These are descriptive counts, not estimates of comparative safety. No percentages or risk contrasts are reported in the registry record, and none should be inferred from the counts.

A zero count in a small group means no event was recorded among the listed participants in that category; it does not establish that the underlying event risk is zero. The registry also does not provide event narratives or the full detail needed to interpret timing, duration, or relatedness. The counts should therefore be read as a limited description of the posted safety summary rather than a complete characterization of safety.

12. What the Result Does, and Does Not, Mean

The registry record documents a phase 1 investigation of copanlisib pharmacokinetics and safety among participants with hepatic or renal impairment and healthy participants. It identifies Cmax of copanlisib in plasma as the primary endpoint, gives the sampling schedule, describes how the impairment groups were classified, and reports selected adverse-event counts. These registry entries clarify the intended question and the structure of the study.

The record does not report numerical Cmax estimates, geometric coefficients of variation, confidence intervals, or statistical comparisons. It therefore does not establish the observed magnitude, direction, or precision of any pharmacokinetic difference between the impaired-function groups and healthy participants. The study objective should not be mistaken for a result: an evaluation was intended, but the numerical primary endpoint findings are not reported in the registry record.

The non-randomized design also limits interpretation. Participants were grouped according to organ function, so an observed contrast would describe differences between these groups and could reflect differences beyond the impairment classification. Without reported adjustment methods or detailed participant characteristics, the registry information does not allow those influences to be assessed.

The safety summary records no serious events and gives counts for other events, but these counts are descriptive. They do not demonstrate equivalence between groups or establish the absence of risk. The small group counts and lack of comparative uncertainty estimates further limit interpretation.

In short, this record is informative about the study design and outcome definitions but incomplete for judging the primary pharmacokinetic findings. It does not support a conclusion that copanlisib exposure was higher, lower, or similar across the groups, nor does it support a definitive comparative safety conclusion.

13. Why This Trial Matters Statistically

This study illustrates a common pharmacokinetic question: whether drug concentration profiles differ across groups with varying organ function. Such questions require clearly defined participant categories, a specified concentration endpoint, and a sampling schedule capable of measuring the relevant profile. The registry identifies each of these elements for copanlisib, including the hepatic and renal impairment criteria and the Cmax sampling times.

It also highlights why design and analysis details matter. A non-randomized comparison can be useful for describing pharmacokinetics across clinically defined groups, but it does not provide the same protection from group differences as random allocation. Statistical interpretation must account for that design rather than treating the healthy group as a randomized control.

Reporting the geometric mean and geometric coefficient of variation is relevant because pharmacokinetic measurements are often analyzed on a multiplicative scale. The endpoint definition alone, however, cannot establish the size or reliability of a finding. Numerical estimates and uncertainty measures are necessary for judging both the observed contrast and its precision; those results are not reported in the registry record.

The study also demonstrates the distinction between registered outcomes and interpretable findings. Listing the primary and secondary outcomes makes the aims visible, but without endpoint results, analysis methods, and information about the analysis populations, readers cannot determine how the planned questions were answered. The safety counts offer a limited descriptive view, not a complete comparative analysis.

For biostatisticians and clinical researchers, the central lesson is to read study purpose, design, endpoint, analysis, and results as separate pieces of evidence. A clear pharmacokinetic question and a defined collection schedule are important, but conclusions depend on reported estimates and their uncertainty. In this record, the design and measurement framework are described more fully than the numerical findings.

14. Limitations

The principal limitation for interpreting this trial is that numerical results for the primary Cmax endpoint are not reported in the registry record. The group-level geometric means, geometric coefficients of variation, and estimates of between-group contrasts are unavailable in the information summarized. Without those results, neither effect size nor precision can be assessed.

The design was non-randomized and open-label. Group assignment was based on hepatic or renal function, so groups may differ in other characteristics as well. The registry information does not report adjustment methods or enough participant-level detail to evaluate the extent of those differences. The healthy participants are a reference group, but not a randomized control group.

Although total enrollment is listed as 30, evaluable sample sizes for individual pharmacokinetic outcomes are not reported in the registry record. The record also does not specify missing-data handling, the analysis populations, or whether all scheduled samples were available. These gaps make it difficult to judge the contribution of incomplete measurements to the analysis.

The statistical analysis plan, including the model and multiplicity approach, is not reported in the registry record. The analysis listing does not by itself identify which comparisons were planned, how uncertainty was estimated, or whether adjustment was used. The sample-size justification and interim analysis procedures are also not reported.

Finally, the adverse-event summary provides limited counts without event-level descriptions or comparative uncertainty estimates. These data can describe the posted counts but cannot establish a comprehensive safety profile or a precise difference between groups.

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18. Record Summary

NCT03172884 is a completed, open-label, non-randomized, parallel-group phase 1 study sponsored by Bayer. It evaluated single-dose copanlisib in healthy participants and participants with moderate or severe hepatic impairment or severe renal impairment. The registry lists enrollment of 30, a start date of 2017-06-14, and a primary completion date of 2020-03-13.

The primary endpoint was plasma Cmax of copanlisib, summarized as a geometric mean with geometric coefficient of variation. Secondary outcomes included pharmacokinetic measures for metabolite M-1 and treatment-emergent adverse events. Numerical primary pharmacokinetic results and detailed statistical methods are not reported in the registry record. The adverse-event summary lists no serious events in the groups and includes descriptive counts for other events.

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