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Ischemic Stroke NA Continuous Endpoint NCT01007136

Transcranial Direct Current Stimulation (tDCS)-Enhanced Stroke Recovery: Complete Statistical Analysis

This analysis examines a randomized trial of transcranial direct current stimulation (tDCS) alongside occupational therapy after ischemic stroke. It focuses on the posted upper-extremity Fugl-Meyer results at 2 weeks, their uncertainty, and the limits of the registry record.

Trial start: 2009-03  ·  Enrollment: 62  ·  Sponsor: University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center
Scope of this record

This page provides an independent statistical analysis and educational interpretation of publicly reported results. ClinicalTrials.gov provides the official trial registry record. Numerical trial results on this page are restricted to the results posted in the ClinicalTrials.gov record; calculations added by Clinical Biostats are labelled as such.

1. Trial at a Glance

This page covers the registry results for Transcranial Direct Current Stimulation (tDCS)-Enhanced Stroke Recovery (NCT01007136), a randomized na study. The primary outcome is Upper Extremity Fugl-Meyer.

62
Enrollment
NA
4
Arms
In the primary outcome
-6.60
Mean difference
tDCS and Occupational Therapy
-22.83–9.63
95% CI
Two-sided
FeatureRegistry value
ClinicalTrials.gov identifierNCT01007136
PhaseNA
ConditionIschemic Stroke
AllocationRandomized
Design modelParallel
MaskingQuadruple
Enrollment62
Arms in the primary outcome4
Lead sponsorUniversity of Texas Southwestern Medical Center
Results postedYes

2. Clinical Question

Population

The registry describes a trial in people with ischemic stroke and reports clinical outcome data for participants with outcome data at the prespecified follow-up timepoint. The primary measure concerns upper-extremity motor performance. The record does not report further eligibility details in the information summarized for this comparison, such as the time since stroke, baseline severity requirements, or restrictions on other conditions.

Intervention

The intervention of interest combined tDCS with occupational therapy. The arm description says that 1 mA electric current was delivered over the lesioned motor cortex during the first 20 minutes of a one-hour physical therapy session. The stated purpose was to assess whether stimulation could improve recovery of hand weakness beyond rehabilitative treatment alone.

Comparator

The principal clinical comparator combined sham tDCS with occupational therapy. In that arm, current was ramped up and down over the lesioned motor cortex during the first seconds of the one-hour session. Both arms therefore included occupational therapy; the intended contrast was active stimulation versus the described sham procedure alongside therapy.

Primary question

The primary question was whether mean upper-extremity Fugl-Meyer performance at 2 weeks differed between the tDCS-plus-occupational-therapy arm and the sham-plus-occupational-therapy arm. The measure ranges from 0-66, with higher scores indicating better performance. The posted comparison is an unadjusted recalculation from the arm-level summaries, rather than a registry-reported inferential analysis.

3. Trial Design

The registry describes a randomized, quadruple-masked, parallel-group trial. It lists an enrollment of 62 and identifies ischemic stroke as the condition. The record does not report the details of sequence generation, allocation concealment, who was masked, or how masking was maintained. The phase is listed as NA. The trial is marked terminated; the registry dates shown are a start in 2009-03 and primary completion in 2014-03. The reason for termination is not reported in the registry record.

The primary clinical comparison is between tDCS with occupational therapy and sham tDCS with occupational therapy. Both arm descriptions refer to a one-hour physical therapy session. In the tDCS arm, 1 mA current was delivered over the lesioned motor cortex during the first 20 minutes. In the sham arm, current was ramped up and down for the first seconds. The record also lists tDCS and sham arms with no arm movement, as well as an fMRI control group with no intervention. That control subgroup did not have clinical intervention or clinical outcome measures performed; its data were used for the fMRI and TMS component.

For the primary outcome, the posted occupational-therapy comparison includes 15 participants in the tDCS arm and 13 in the sham arm. These are the outcome-specific counts, not the overall enrollment. The record says that all subjects with outcome data at the prespecified follow-up were included. It does not report a full accounting of enrollment, allocation, follow-up, exclusions, or missing outcomes by reason. Therefore, the relationship between total enrollment and the outcome-specific counts cannot be fully reconstructed from the registry record. No additional details about treatment adherence, therapy standardization, or follow-up procedures are reported in the registry record.

4. Participant Flow and Accounting

The registry reports how participants moved through each stage of the study. All counts below are exactly as posted; missing counts are not inferred from other stages.

Before assignment: Enrolled participants were assigned to groups unless they were found to meet one of the exclusion criteria, or withdrew their consent.

Overall Study

StagetDCS and Occupational TherapySham and Occupational TherapyfMRI Control Group no InterventiontDCS and no Arm MovementSham and no Arm Movement
STARTED19171564
COMPLETED15131564
NOT COMPLETED44000

Analysis population for the primary outcome, as defined in the registry: All subjects with outcome data at the prespecified follow-up timepoint were included. "fMRI Control Group no Intervention" subgroup did not have clinical intervention or clinical outcome measures performed, their data was used for the fMRI and TMS component of the study.

5. Baseline Characteristics

The table reproduces the baseline characteristics posted in the registry, which describe the participants analysed at baseline and help show whether the randomized groups were comparable.

Population: One subject who did not meet enrollment criteria was erroneously enrolled and was removed by PI from the study immediately after enrollment, prior to randomization. Therefore the total number of enrolled is one more then randomized.

CharacteristicUnittDCS and Occupational TherapySham and Occupational TherapyfMRI Control Group no InterventiontDCS and no Arm MovementSham and no Arm MovementTotal
Participants analysed1917156461
Age, Categorical: <=18 yearsParticipants000000
Age, Categorical: Between 18 and 65 yearsParticipants1012152342
Age, Categorical: >=65 yearsParticipants9504119
Age, Continuousyears62.5 (SD 11.3)60.7 (SD 10.3)49 (SD 13)66 (SD 10)63.5 (SD 8.3)59 (SD 13)
Sex: Female, Male: FemaleParticipants81193132
Sex: Female, Male: MaleParticipants11663329

6. Primary Endpoint

The registry lists the primary outcome as Upper Extremity Fugl-Meyer, measured over 2 weeks.

ElementRegistry entry
Result typeMean
Measure of spreadStandard Deviation
Unitunits on a scale
Endpoint classificationContinuous Endpoint

The primary endpoint is the Upper Extremity Fugl-Meyer measure at 2 weeks. It is a continuous motor outcome, reported as a mean with a standard deviation. The registry describes it as an upper-extremity motor outcome measure with scores from 0-66; higher values mean better performance. It is used to quantify motor function in the area relevant to the trial’s stated question about hand weakness and recovery after stroke.

A continuous score retains more gradation than a simple classification such as improved or not improved. It can represent differences in performance across participants, and a comparison of arm means describes the average score in each group. That summary does not show how each participant changed from baseline, because a baseline value or change-from-baseline result is not included in the posted primary outcome summaries. Nor does the group mean describe the full distribution of individual responses.

At the prespecified follow-up, the registry says that participants with outcome data were included. The record does not report a baseline-adjusted analysis or a threshold for defining a clinically important difference. The score range and direction of interpretation help explain the measure, but they do not by themselves establish how much difference would matter clinically. The interpretation should therefore keep the outcome’s scale, timing, and available-data population in view.

7. Results Posted in the Registry

Mean difference: tDCS and Occupational Therapy

-6.60

95% CI: -22.83 to 9.63

Recalculated from the posted summary statistics

Primary outcome by arm, with 95% confidence intervals
Primary outcome by arm with 95% confidence intervals-4.96.918.630.442.153.9tDCS and Occupational Therapy (n=15)Sham and Occupational Therapy (n=13)tDCS and no Arm Movement (n=6)Sham and no Arm Movement (n=4)units on a scale (95% CI)
Treatment effect versus the control arm
Forest plot of mean difference vs control (95% CI)tDCS and Occupational Therapy-25-18-10-2.834.7012mean difference vs control (95% CI)

8. Secondary Efficacy Endpoints

The registry also posts results for secondary outcomes. For each outcome below, the endpoint type, the test applied to the posted summary statistics, the result and its interpretation are given in turn. Secondary endpoints are usually not adjusted for multiple testing, so they support rather than confirm the primary finding.

Secondary outcomeTypeEffect measureEstimate (95% CI)Planning size, 80% power
Wolf Motor Function TestContinuous EndpointMean difference-11.20 (-28.86 to 6.46)54 per arm

Wolf Motor Function Test

Treatment effect versus the control arm
Forest plot of mean difference vs control (95% CI)tDCS and Occupational Therapy-32-23-15-7.101.099.29mean difference vs control (95% CI)

The registry lists one secondary clinical outcome: the Wolf Motor Function Test at 3 months. Thus, the record does not offer a set of several posted secondary clinical endpoints from which to judge consistency across many measures. The occupational-therapy comparison on that measure points in the same general direction as the primary comparison: the recalculated average is lower in the tDCS arm than in the sham arm. Its interval also includes zero. This directional alignment is a descriptive feature, not independent confirmation of a treatment effect.

The secondary outcome concerns motor function and is related to the primary focus on upper-extremity motor performance, but it is a distinct measure taken at a different follow-up time. Agreement in direction across related measures can be informative, while it cannot make the estimates independent or remove their uncertainty. The registry record lists no reported secondary analyses. The numerical comparison is an unadjusted recalculation from the posted arm summaries, so it should not be treated as a registry-reported confirmatory finding.

Unadjusted secondary results carry less weight when many outcomes, timepoints, or comparisons may have been considered. Even without evidence that many analyses were conducted, testing multiple endpoints can increase the chance that at least one result appears unusual by chance. The registry lists 14 outcome measures, but only one secondary outcome is identified in the information summarized for this result; the record does not specify which measures were analyzed, how they were prioritized, or whether any adjustment for multiple testing was planned. No multiplicity correction should be presumed.

The appropriate reading is therefore restrained: the single posted secondary clinical comparison is directionally consistent with the primary estimate, but it is uncertain, unadjusted, and not reported as a formal registry analysis. It adds context about another motor measure and follow-up, but it does not resolve the precision limitations of the primary result or establish a broader pattern across secondary endpoints.

Secondary outcomes registered for this trial, for reference (only those above were recalculated):

9. Statistical Interpretation

Clinical Biostats interpretation

In the occupational-therapy arms, the posted mean score was 30.2 for tDCS and 36.8 for sham at 2 weeks. The unadjusted recalculated mean difference, defined as the tDCS mean minus the sham mean, was -6.6 units. Since higher Fugl-Meyer scores indicate better performance, the observed arm means and the estimated difference point toward a lower average score in the tDCS arm at this follow-up. This is a description of the posted outcome data, not a conclusion about treatment effectiveness.

The confidence interval for the recalculated difference extends from -22.83 to 9.629. It includes zero, so the data are compatible with no mean difference as well as with differences in either direction over the interval. Its width also shows that the estimate is imprecise: the observed difference is not pinned down closely by the available outcome counts and variability. The registry record does not state the confidence level attached to this interval, so no confidence level should be inferred from the posted numbers.

The unadjusted p-value is 0.425. This value does not establish that the groups are equivalent, and it does not give the probability that the null hypothesis is true. Rather, under the assumptions of the statistical test, it describes how unusual a result at least as discrepant as the observed one would be if the null hypothesis of no mean difference held. The registry record does not report a prespecified equivalence margin or a non-inferiority margin; consequently, the result cannot be read as an equivalence finding.

The comparison is a recalculation from posted summary statistics, not a registry-reported analysis. The registry record lists no reported analyses for the primary result. The recalculation is unadjusted and uses arm-level means and standard deviations; it does not account for baseline score, other prognostic factors, or any analysis plan that is not reported in the registry record. It also reflects participants with outcome data at the stated follow-up, rather than necessarily every enrolled or randomized participant.

The record includes additional arms, but the principal clinical question addressed by this comparison is the contrast between the two occupational-therapy arms. The no-arm-movement groups and the fMRI control subgroup have different descriptions and should not be combined with that clinical comparison without an analysis plan. The results therefore support a narrow reading: the posted summaries show lower average Fugl-Meyer performance in the tDCS arm than in the sham arm at 2 weeks, with substantial uncertainty around the unadjusted estimated difference. They do not establish why the observed scores differed or what the true effect would be in a larger or differently analyzed population.

10. Statistical Methods Explained

The primary measure is continuous, so the registry reports a mean and standard deviation for each arm. A mean represents the average score among participants contributing outcome data. A standard deviation describes how spread out participant scores are around that mean; it is not the uncertainty in the mean itself. In these results, the tDCS arm has a mean of 30.2 and standard deviation of 21.2, while the sham arm has a mean of 36.8 and standard deviation of 22.4. The observed spread is substantial relative to the arm means, which is relevant when judging how much information the available participants provide about a difference between group averages.

The displayed mean difference is an unadjusted recalculation using the two arm means. Its direction is tDCS minus sham, so a negative value means the tDCS arm’s observed mean is lower. The recalculated difference is -6.6 units. It is expressed in the original score units, which makes its scale directly interpretable against the Fugl-Meyer measure. It is not adjusted for baseline values or other participant characteristics. A difference in observed means can reflect the treatment contrast, chance variation, differences in who contributed outcome data, or other features that an adjusted design or analysis might address; the posted summaries alone cannot separate those possibilities.

The confidence interval gives a range of values compatible with the estimate under the method’s assumptions. For this comparison, the interval runs from -22.83 to 9.629. An interval that crosses zero does not establish that there is no effect; it indicates that the data do not narrowly distinguish a negative difference from no difference or a positive difference. The registry record does not state the confidence level for the interval. In general, confidence intervals are useful because they display both the estimated direction and the precision, whereas a p-value alone does not show the range of plausible effect sizes.

The unadjusted p-value is 0.425. In general, a p-value is calculated under a null hypothesis and a statistical model; it measures the compatibility of the observed data with that model, not the probability that a treatment is beneficial or ineffective. Here, the p-value is not adjusted for other endpoints or comparisons. The registry record does not report a multiplicity procedure, a prespecified statistical analysis plan, or a registry-reported analysis for this primary comparison. It is therefore best treated as a descriptive, unadjusted inferential statistic accompanying the recalculation, rather than as a complete account of the trial’s planned analysis.

The comparison also reports a standardized effect size of -0.303. A standardized effect expresses the mean difference in standard-deviation units rather than in Fugl-Meyer points. In general, this can help compare effects across measures with different scales, but it removes the original scale’s direct interpretation. The sign retains the same direction: negative indicates a lower tDCS mean relative to sham under the stated subtraction order. The pooled standard deviation used in the recalculation is 21.76. The standardized effect is not a separate outcome, and it does not resolve the uncertainty reflected by the confidence interval.

The outcome-specific analysis population matters. The registry says that all subjects with outcome data at the prespecified follow-up were included. It does not state that missing outcomes were imputed, nor does it describe an intention-to-treat analysis or a per-protocol analysis. Those methods should not be assumed. If outcome availability differs between groups or is related to measured performance, a complete-case summary can represent a selected subset of the randomized participants. The registry record does not provide enough information to evaluate that possibility.

General statistical context: random assignment is intended to make treatment groups comparable on average, including on characteristics not measured at baseline, but randomization does not guarantee balance in a small realized sample. Masking can limit some forms of influence on treatment delivery or outcome assessment, though the registry does not specify who was masked or how masking success was assessed. The parallel design assigns participants to groups for comparison over the same trial period; the registry does not report further details of assignment or follow-up that would support a more specific account.

General statistical context: variability and sample size jointly affect precision. Greater variation in individual scores makes a group mean less precise, while more observed participants generally provide more information, subject to the assumptions of the analysis and the quality of the data. Here, the outcome-specific counts are 15 and 13 in the two occupational-therapy arms, and the standard deviations are large relative to the difference estimate. The wide interval is consistent with limited precision. This explanation describes general statistical principles; it does not establish the reason the trial enrolled or analyzed the number of participants it did.

For planning illustrations, the posted calculations use the observed effect and specified assumptions described with the planning figures. Those are not the trial’s original design calculations: the registry record does not report the original sample-size assumptions. A planning calculation based on an observed effect is sensitive to that effect estimate, which is uncertain in a small sample. Such illustrations can show how required group size changes under the chosen assumptions, but they cannot substitute for a prespecified design rationale or an observed treatment effect.

11. Confidence Intervals and Precision

The primary mean difference is -6.6 units, with a confidence interval from -22.83 to 9.629. Because this interval includes zero, the posted data do not distinguish the observed difference from no mean difference at the interval’s range of uncertainty. The interval also includes values on both sides of zero, so it allows for an average difference favoring either arm. The registry record does not report the confidence level for this interval; the numerical limits should be read as posted rather than assigned an unstated confidence level.

The interval is wide in relation to the point estimate. That width is a practical expression of limited precision: the estimate gives a direction and central value, but the available data leave a broad range of possible mean differences. The outcome-specific counts are 15 and 13, and the reported standard deviations are 21.2 and 22.4. Group means are summaries, while the standard deviations indicate considerable participant-to-participant variation. With relatively few outcome observations and substantial spread, a mean difference can be estimated imprecisely.

Precision is distinct from whether a result crosses a conventional statistical threshold. A p-value of 0.425 does not make the confidence interval narrow, and it does not show that the arms are alike. Conversely, the interval’s inclusion of zero does not show that the true mean difference is exactly zero. To demonstrate similarity within a clinically meaningful range would require a suitable prespecified margin and an analysis designed for that question; such a margin is not reported in the registry record.

The interval is based on the unadjusted recalculation from the posted summary statistics, and it concerns the outcome-data population described in the registry. It does not capture every possible source of uncertainty, such as missing outcomes or unreported analytic choices. The result should therefore be read as a fairly imprecise estimate from the available summaries, not as a definitive estimate of the treatment contrast for all enrolled participants.

12. Planning a Similar Trial: Sample Size

This is a planning illustration, not a re-evaluation of the original trial. It asks: if a new study wanted to detect a difference like the one observed, or a smaller one, how large would it need to be? It is deliberately not “observed power” of the finished trial, which is not a meaningful quantity.

Effect to detectParticipants per arm, 80% powerParticipants per arm, 90% power
100% of the observed effect171229
75% of the observed effect304407
50% of the observed effect683914
Sample size needed versus the size of the effect to detect
Sample size needed versus size of effect to detect1002005001,0002,00040%60%80%100%80% power90% powersize of effect to detect, as % of the effect observed (log vertical scale: participants per arm)
Treat these figures cautiously. The observed difference is imprecise: its confidence interval includes no difference at all. A sample size built on a noisy estimate can be far too small or too large, so the smaller-effect rows are the more cautious guide.
Method and assumptions. Two-sided α = 0.05, 1:1 allocation, two-sample comparison of means with the pooled standard deviation. Calculated for the comparison: tDCS and Occupational Therapy.

The planning figures are participants per arm, not total participants and not total events. They are illustrations based on the observed effect, not the trial’s original design calculations; the original design assumptions are not reported in the registry record. The stated planning assumptions are a two-sided significance level of 0.05, equal allocation between the two arms, and a normal approximation. The effect to detect is set to the stated fraction of the observed effect. The separate rule for time-to-event calculations is not relevant to these continuous outcomes.

The 80% power column means the number of participants per arm estimated to give an 80% chance of detecting the specified effect under those assumptions if that effect is the true effect. The 90% column expresses the corresponding planning target for a 90% chance. These are design probabilities under a model, not guarantees for an individual study. For the primary comparison, planning for 100% of the observed effect gives 171 participants per arm for 80% power and 229 participants per arm for 90% power. Planning for 75% of the observed effect gives 304 and 407 participants per arm, respectively; planning for 50% gives 683 and 914.

The pattern matters more than treating any one figure as a definitive target. A smaller effect is harder to distinguish from random variation, so detecting a smaller fraction of the observed effect requires more participants under the same assumptions. The observed effect itself is uncertain, and basing a planning illustration on it can make the resulting figures sensitive to chance variation in this trial. These figures are not observed power. They do not indicate the probability that the trial’s result is correct or the chance that an effect exists; they are planning illustrations under the stated assumptions.

13. How the Sample Size Is Derived

Power is the probability that a study of a given size rejects the null hypothesis when a specific true effect exists. It depends on four things: the effect to detect, the variability of the outcome, the significance level (here a two-sided α of 0.05, so z1−α/2 = 1.960) and the desired power (z1−β = 0.842 for 80% and 1.282 for 90%).

Formula

n = 2 (z1−α/2 + z1−β)2 σ2 / Δ2

n is the number of participants in each arm, Δ is the difference in means to detect and σ is the common standard deviation.

Worked calculation for this trial

  1. Observed difference Δ = -6.600; pooled standard deviation σ = 21.762.
  2. n = 2 × (1.96 + 0.842)2 × 21.7622 / -6.6002 = 170.7, rounded up to 171 participants per arm for 80% power.

The smaller-effect rows in the table above repeat the same calculation with the effect multiplied by 0.75 and 0.5 (for ratios, applied to the logarithm of the ratio).

R code

alpha <- 0.05
z_a   <- qnorm(1 - alpha / 2)          # two-sided
delta <- -6.6                      # observed difference in means
sigma <- 21.7620700372849                     # pooled standard deviation
n_per_arm <- function(power, frac = 1) {
  ceiling(round(2 * (z_a + qnorm(power))^2 * sigma^2 / (delta * frac)^2, 6))
}
for (f in c(1, 0.75, 0.5))
  cat(sprintf("%3.0f%% of observed effect: n per arm = %s (80%% power), %s (90%% power)\n", 100 * f,
              format(n_per_arm(0.80, f), big.mark = ","), format(n_per_arm(0.90, f), big.mark = ",")))

# Check against R's built-in function (t-based, so very slightly larger)
cat("power.t.test:", round(power.t.test(delta = delta, sd = sigma, power = 0.80)$n, 1), "\n")

# Simulation: exact two-sample t-test using simulated means and variances
set.seed(1007136)
n    <- n_per_arm(0.80)
reps <- 20000
m_diff <- rnorm(reps, delta, sigma * sqrt(2 / n))             # difference in sample means
s2     <- sigma^2 * rchisq(reps, 2 * (n - 1)) / (2 * (n - 1))   # pooled sample variance
tstat  <- m_diff / sqrt(s2 * 2 / n)
cat(sprintf("Simulated power at n = %s per arm: %.3f (%d replicates)\n", format(n, big.mark = ","), mean(abs(tstat) > qt(0.975, 2 * (n - 1))), reps))

Output from running the code

100% of observed effect: n per arm = 171 (80% power), 229 (90% power)
 75% of observed effect: n per arm = 304 (80% power), 407 (90% power)
 50% of observed effect: n per arm = 683 (80% power), 914 (90% power)
power.t.test: 171.6 
Simulated power at n = 171 per arm: 0.798 (20000 replicates)

The simulation draws many sets of group means and variances at the planned sample size and counts how often the two-sample t-test rejects the null. It should land close to the target power; at very small required sample sizes it can fall below it, because the normal approximation is rough there.

14. Multiplicity, Missing Data and Analysis Populations

Multiplicity arises when a study evaluates more than one outcome, timepoint, treatment contrast, or subgroup. If many hypotheses are tested, the chance of at least one apparently noteworthy result by chance can increase. The registry lists 14 outcome measures and one secondary outcome is identified in the posted clinical results. It does not report which of the listed measures were formally analyzed, how the primary outcome was prioritized in the statistical plan, or whether any multiplicity adjustment was planned or performed. The posted unadjusted p-values should therefore not be read as accounting for all possible comparisons.

The record lists no reported analyses for the primary comparison and no reported analyses for the secondary outcome. The comparisons discussed are unadjusted recalculations from arm-level summary statistics. The registry record does not report a prespecified statistical analysis plan, any interim analyses, stopping rules, subgroup analysis plan, or adjustment for baseline covariates. These items should be treated as not reported in the registry record, rather than inferred from the trial design or the posted outcome summaries.

Missing data also limit interpretation. For the primary endpoint, the record says that all subjects with outcome data at the prespecified follow-up were included. That describes an available-outcome population; it does not establish that all randomized participants contributed data. The record does not report the number or reasons for missing primary outcomes by assigned arm, how missing values were handled, or whether sensitivity analyses assessed the effect of missingness. It also does not report a complete participant flow that would reconcile enrollment with outcome-specific counts.

In general, complete-case summaries can be biased if outcome availability is related to treatment assignment or to participant outcomes, although the available record cannot establish whether that happened in this trial. Nor does the registry provide enough information to determine whether the analysis population followed an intention-to-treat principle. The stated population should be described as participants with outcome data at the prespecified follow-up, without assigning it a stronger analysis label. These gaps matter because conclusions from randomized assignment depend in part on how follow-up and analysis preserve the intended comparison.

15. Safety Results

The registry reports serious adverse events as affected participants divided by participants at risk.

ArmParticipants with serious adverse eventsParticipants at riskPercentage
tDCS and Occupational Therapy21910.5%
Sham and Occupational Therapy21711.8%
fMRI Control Group no Intervention0150.0%
tDCS and no Arm Movement060.0%
Sham and no Arm Movement040.0%
Participants with at least one serious adverse event
Serious adverse events by armtDCS and Occupational Therapy10.5%Sham and Occupational Therapy11.8%fMRI Control Group no Interve…0.0%tDCS and no Arm Movement0.0%Sham and no Arm Movement0.0%% of participants with at least one serious adverse event

Deaths

ArmDeaths (participants affected of at risk)
tDCS and Occupational Therapy1 of 19
Sham and Occupational Therapy0 of 17
fMRI Control Group no Intervention0 of 15
tDCS and no Arm Movement0 of 6
Sham and no Arm Movement0 of 4

Other (non-serious) adverse events

Participants with at least one non-serious event at or above the registry's 0% reporting threshold.

ArmParticipants affected of at risk
tDCS and Occupational Therapy9 of 19
Sham and Occupational Therapy3 of 17
fMRI Control Group no Intervention0 of 15
tDCS and no Arm Movement2 of 6
Sham and no Arm Movement0 of 4

Most frequent serious adverse event terms

Event termOrgan systemtDCS and Occupational TherapySham and Occupational TherapyfMRI Control Group no InterventiontDCS and no Arm MovementSham and no Arm Movement
recurrent strokeNervous system disorders0 of 191 of 170 of 150 of 60 of 4
deathInfections and infestations1 of 190 of 170 of 150 of 60 of 4
mental status change hospitalisationNervous system disorders1 of 190 of 170 of 150 of 60 of 4
hip fractureMusculoskeletal and connective tissue disorders0 of 191 of 170 of 150 of 60 of 4

Most frequent non-serious adverse event terms

Event termOrgan systemtDCS and Occupational TherapySham and Occupational TherapyfMRI Control Group no InterventiontDCS and no Arm MovementSham and no Arm Movement
phosphene phenomenonNervous system disorders4 of 190 of 170 of 152 of 60 of 4
itching or tingtling under the electrodeProduct Issues5 of 191 of 170 of 150 of 60 of 4
vomitingGastrointestinal disorders1 of 191 of 170 of 150 of 60 of 4
sleepinessNervous system disorders1 of 190 of 170 of 150 of 60 of 4
car accidentSkin and subcutaneous tissue disorders0 of 191 of 170 of 150 of 60 of 4

Serious events with the highest arm-level rate: recurrent stroke (5.9%), hip fracture (5.9%), death (5.3%), mental status change hospitalisation (5.3%).

Do not overextend the safety comparison. Serious-adverse-event counts are safety observations, not efficacy outcomes, and should not be combined with the primary result into a single benefit-risk number.

The registry reports safety counts for five groups, with denominators labeled as participants at risk. In the tDCS-and-occupational-therapy group, serious adverse events affected 2 of 19 at risk, other adverse events affected 9 of 19, and 1 death was reported. In the sham-and-occupational-therapy group, serious events affected 2 of 17, other events affected 3 of 17, and no deaths were reported. For the groups with no arm movement, serious events affected none of 6 in the tDCS group and none of 4 in the sham group; other events affected 2 of 6 and none of 4, respectively. The fMRI control group had no serious or other adverse events reported among 15 at risk and no deaths.

These counts are descriptive and should be read with their group sizes in mind. The record lists serious-event terms including recurrent stroke, hip fracture, death, and mental status change hospitalisation, each with a percentage, but does not assign those terms to particular treatment groups in the information summarized. The adverse-event denominators differ from the outcome-specific counts for the primary comparison. The registry record does not provide further detail about event timing, severity classification, relatedness assessment, or how the risk groups were defined. The counts alone do not establish that an event was caused by an intervention or permit a complete comparative safety analysis.

16. What the Result Does, and Does Not, Mean

The posted primary data show a lower mean upper-extremity Fugl-Meyer score in the tDCS-plus-occupational-therapy group than in the sham-plus-occupational-therapy group at 2 weeks. The unadjusted recalculated difference is -6.6 units, and the interval from -22.83 to 9.629 spans zero. This combination conveys both the observed direction and the uncertainty: the point estimate favors a higher average score in the sham group, while the interval does not tightly identify the size or direction of the underlying mean difference.

The result does not establish that the groups are equivalent. An interval that includes zero can arise because the true difference is small, because the data are too imprecise to distinguish a difference, or through other features not resolvable from the summary. The registry record does not report an equivalence margin or a non-inferiority design. Similarly, the unadjusted p-value of 0.425 does not establish that there is no treatment effect and is not the probability that the observed result is due to chance.

The figures also do not establish whether any difference is clinically important. The scale range and the fact that higher scores mean better performance clarify direction, but a threshold for an important change is not reported. The primary result is a comparison of group means at follow-up, not an account of each participant’s change from baseline. The record does not provide the information needed to infer individual improvement, recovery trajectories, or how many participants experienced a meaningful change.

The findings should be confined to the posted comparison, endpoint, follow-up, and available outcome population. The record describes additional groups and a separate fMRI/TMS component; those data do not automatically answer the clinical comparison. No reason for trial termination is reported, and the available outcome summaries do not explain the termination. More generally, one small outcome-specific comparison with an imprecise interval cannot by itself settle whether the intervention changes motor outcomes in other settings or populations. It gives a limited estimate with substantial uncertainty, not medical advice or a basis for an individual treatment decision.

17. Why This Trial Matters Statistically

This trial is statistically instructive because it separates a point estimate from the strength of evidence around that estimate. The observed mean difference has a direction, but its confidence interval extends across zero and is wide. A reader who focuses only on the sign of the point estimate could overstate what the data establish; a reader who focuses only on the p-value could mistakenly treat a non-small value as proof of no effect. Precision and uncertainty are central to interpreting a small available-outcome comparison.

The registry also illustrates the importance of distinguishing enrollment from the population contributing to a specific endpoint. Enrollment is 62, while the primary occupational-therapy comparison has 15 and 13 outcome observations. The record states that participants with outcome data at follow-up were included, but does not explain the full movement from enrollment to those counts. Transparent participant flow and missing-data methods are important for understanding how closely an outcome analysis reflects the randomized groups.

Another statistical issue is the boundary between registry-reported analyses and post hoc recalculation. The posted means and standard deviations support a straightforward unadjusted comparison, but the record lists no reported inferential analyses. That distinction matters: a calculation from summaries can aid interpretation, but it does not recover unreported details of a planned model, covariate adjustment, multiplicity strategy, or sensitivity analysis.

Finally, the presence of multiple listed outcomes and additional study groups makes a narrowly defined contrast essential. The main clinical question concerns active versus sham stimulation when both groups receive occupational therapy. Groups without arm movement and an fMRI control subgroup have different roles in the record and should not be folded into that contrast. A clear account of the target comparison, outcome timing, analysis population, and uncertainty makes the statistical reading more faithful to what the registry actually documents.

18. Limitations

The registry record leaves important design and analysis details unresolved. It does not report the original sample-size justification or its assumptions, so the planning illustrations based on the observed effect cannot be taken as the trial’s original design rationale. The reason the trial was terminated is also not reported in the registry record. Termination status alone does not explain whether enrollment, follow-up, or analysis was affected.

The primary comparison is based on outcome-specific counts of 15 and 13, and the registry describes inclusion of people with outcome data at the prespecified follow-up. A full participant-flow account, reasons for missing outcomes, and missing-data methods are not reported. This makes it difficult to assess how the observed-data population relates to all randomized participants. Baseline Fugl-Meyer scores and an analysis of change from baseline are not included in the posted primary summaries, nor is a baseline-adjusted estimate reported.

The results are means and standard deviations rather than participant-level data or a complete distributional description. The registry record does not report an analysis model, diagnostics, or sensitivity analyses. It also does not report who was masked, details of allocation concealment, treatment adherence, therapy standardization, or a clinically important difference threshold. These omissions do not prove that such procedures or analyses did not occur; they mean they are not reported in the registry record.

The broader study includes no-arm-movement groups and a no-intervention fMRI control subgroup, but the clinical question addressed by the main comparison is the tDCS-plus-therapy arm versus sham-plus-therapy. The fMRI subgroup did not have clinical outcome measures performed. The information summarized does not provide enough detail to combine those groups or assess all study objectives. In addition, the registry lists 14 outcome measures while the posted clinical summary identifies one secondary outcome; the status and analysis of the other measures are not clear from the registry record.

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22. Record Summary

The registry identifies NCT01007136 as Transcranial Direct Current Stimulation (tDCS)-Enhanced Stroke Recovery, with the official title TDCS-enhanced Stroke Recovery and Cortical Reorganization. The sponsor is University of Texas Southwestern Medical Center. The study is listed as randomized, quadruple-masked, and parallel, with an enrollment of 62. Its condition is ischemic stroke, its phase is listed as NA, and its status is terminated. The recorded start is 2009-03 and primary completion is 2014-03.

The primary clinical outcome is the Upper Extremity Fugl-Meyer measure at 2 weeks. In the occupational-therapy comparison, the unadjusted recalculated mean difference is -6.6 units, with a confidence interval from -22.83 to 9.629 and an unadjusted p-value of 0.425. The registry record lists no reported analysis for this comparison. The outcome summaries include participants with outcome data at follow-up; the registry does not report the original design assumptions, a complete missing-data account, or the reason for termination.

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