This page provides an independent statistical analysis and educational interpretation of publicly reported results. ClinicalTrials.gov provides the official trial registry record. Numerical trial results on this page are restricted to the results posted in the ClinicalTrials.gov record; calculations added by Clinical Biostats are labelled as such.
1. Trial at a Glance
This page covers the registry results for Treatment, Pain, and Opioids (NCT05363176), a randomized na study. The primary outcome is Medical Record Review and Treatment Utilization Form.
| Feature | Registry value |
|---|---|
| ClinicalTrials.gov identifier | NCT05363176 |
| Phase | NA |
| Condition | Chronic Pain |
| Allocation | Randomized |
| Design model | Parallel |
| Masking | Double |
| Enrollment | 300 |
| Arms in the primary outcome | 2 |
| Lead sponsor | VA Office of Research and Development |
| Results posted | Yes |
2. Clinical Question
Population
Veterans with chronic pain who use prescription opioids. The registry title and summary describe the population in those terms, but further eligibility details are not reported in the registry record.
Intervention
Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy for Treatment Seeking (CBT-TS), delivered by telehealth in one approximately 45-minute session. The intervention was intended to address beliefs that can be barriers to beginning or continuing treatment.
Comparator
Pain treatment education, also delivered by telehealth in one approximately 45-minute session. Further detail about the educational content is not reported in the registry record.
Primary question
By the 6-month post-treatment follow-up, did the proportion of participants who initiated a non-pharmacological pain treatment differ between the CBT-TS and pain-treatment-education groups? Initiation was defined as attending at least one appointment, based on medical-record review.
3. Trial Design
The registry describes NCT05363176 as a randomized, double-masked, parallel-group trial. It lists an enrollment of 300 and a completed status. The sponsor is the VA Office of Research and Development. The registry labels the phase as not applicable. Further detail about the randomization procedure, concealment, or which people were masked is not reported in the registry record.
The comparison was between two behavioral interventions delivered remotely: Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy for Treatment Seeking and pain treatment education. Each was described as a single telehealth session of approximately 45 minutes. The registry summary frames the study around beliefs that may hinder engagement in psychosocial and other non-pharmacological pain treatment. It does not report additional information about intervention fidelity, providers, or participant adherence to the sessions.
The primary outcome assessed treatment initiation by 6-months post-treatment. Medical-record chart review was used to identify whether a participant attended at least one appointment for a non-pharmacological pain treatment. The registry lists the Pain Treatment Willingness Scale, Medication Beliefs Questionnaire, Beck Hopelessness Scale, Pain Catastrophizing Scale, and Tampa Scale for Kinesiophobia-17 among secondary outcome measures. Numerical results are posted for some secondary measures, while numerical results for the remaining listed measures are not reported in the registry record.
The registry reports primary endpoint counts for 129 participants in the CBT for Treatment Seeking group and 136 in the Pain Treatment Education group. These arm counts are lower than the stated enrollment of 300. Reasons for the difference, including how many participants lacked endpoint data and how missing outcomes were handled, are not reported in the registry record. The analysis population and any exclusions are also not described in sufficient detail to determine how the reported counts relate to all randomized participants.
4. Participant Flow and Accounting
The registry reports how participants moved through each stage of the study. All counts below are exactly as posted; missing counts are not inferred from other stages.
Overall Study
| Stage | CBT for Treatment Seeking | Pain Treatment Education |
|---|---|---|
| STARTED | 151 | 149 |
| COMPLETED | 129 | 136 |
| NOT COMPLETED | 22 | 13 |
Reasons for not completing this period:
| Reason | CBT for Treatment Seeking | Pain Treatment Education |
|---|---|---|
| Withdrawal by Subject | 14 | 8 |
| Lost to Follow-up | 8 | 5 |
5. Baseline Characteristics
The table reproduces the baseline characteristics posted in the registry, which describe the participants analysed at baseline and help show whether the randomized groups were comparable.
Population: Baseline characteristics not assessed in 6 participants because they were lost to follow-up after consent.
| Characteristic | Unit | CBT for Treatment Seeking | Pain Treatment Education | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Participants analysed | 146 | 148 | 294 | |
| Age, Continuous | Years | 62.73 (SD 10.83) | 65.20 (SD 9.51) | 63.97 (SD 10.24) |
| Sex: Female, Male: Female | Participants | 22 | 21 | 43 |
| Sex: Female, Male: Male | Participants | 124 | 127 | 251 |
| Race (NIH/OMB): American Indian or Alaska Native | Participants | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Race (NIH/OMB): Asian | Participants | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Race (NIH/OMB): Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander | Participants | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Race (NIH/OMB): Black or African American | Participants | 51 | 52 | 103 |
| Race (NIH/OMB): White | Participants | 85 | 83 | 168 |
| Race (NIH/OMB): More than one race | Participants | 2 | 8 | 10 |
| Race (NIH/OMB): Unknown or Not Reported | Participants | 5 | 4 | 9 |
| Ethnicity (NIH/OMB): Hispanic or Latino | Participants | 7 | 12 | 19 |
| Ethnicity (NIH/OMB): Not Hispanic or Latino | Participants | 139 | 135 | 274 |
| Ethnicity (NIH/OMB): Unknown or Not Reported | Participants | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| PROMIS Pain interference | units on scale | 15.61 (SD 3.68) | 14.8 (SD 4.21) | 15.2 (SD 3.97) |
| Pain Catastrophizing Scale | Units on a scale | 22.39 (SD 12.44) | 22.47 (SD 12.43) | 22.43 (SD 12.41) |
| Pain Treatment Willingness Scale | Units on a scale | 3.68 (SD 1.19) | 3.59 (SD 1.12) | 3.63 (SD 1.15) |
| Tampa Scale of Kinesiophobia | Units on a scale | 30.31 (SD 5.74) | 30.73 (SD 5.85) | 30.52 (SD 5.79) |
| Medication Beliefs Questionnaire | Units on a scale | 16.2 (SD 2.76) | 16.49 (SD 2.86) | 16.35 (SD 2.81) |
| Beck Hopelessness Scale | Units on a scale | 5.04 (SD 4.79) | 4.97 (SD 5.1) | 5.01 (SD 4.94) |
6. Primary Endpoint
The registry lists the primary outcome as Medical Record Review and Treatment Utilization Form, measured over 6-months post-treatment.
| Element | Registry entry |
|---|---|
| Result type | Count Of Participants |
| Measure of spread | not applicable |
| Unit | Participants |
| Endpoint classification | Binary Endpoint |
The primary endpoint is treatment initiation by 6-months post-treatment. It records whether a participant attended at least one appointment for a non-pharmacological pain treatment. The registry says this information was captured through medical-record chart review and a Treatment Utilization Form, with the investigators calculating the percent who initiated treatment by the follow-up.
This endpoint addresses engagement with care rather than a direct measure of pain intensity, function, or the quality of treatment received. A participant counts as having initiated treatment after attending at least one appointment; the endpoint does not, by itself, describe ongoing attendance or treatment completion. The registry gives examples of eligible non-pharmacological treatment as psychosocial interventions and movement-related interventions.
A binary endpoint is useful for comparing the proportion of participants in each group who met a defined event criterion. In this trial, that event is treatment initiation. The posted primary counts are 19 of 129 in the CBT for Treatment Seeking group and 17 of 136 in the Pain Treatment Education group. These counts describe the recorded events and denominators; they do not establish why a participant did or did not initiate treatment.
Medical-record review offers a way to assess documented treatment use, but the registry does not report how records were obtained across participants, how records from outside the health system were handled, or how uncertain records were classified. Those details matter because the endpoint depends on documented attendance. Such ascertainment details are not reported in the registry record.
7. Results Posted in the Registry
- Pain Treatment Education: 12.5% (17/136) versus 14.7% (19/129) on control; risk difference -2.2 percentage points (95% CI -10.5 to 6.0), risk ratio 0.85 (0.46–1.56); unadjusted two-proportion z-test p = 0.597.
Risk difference: Pain Treatment Education
95% CI: -10.5 to 6.0 percentage points
Recalculated from the posted summary statistics
8. Secondary Efficacy Endpoints
The registry also posts results for secondary outcomes. For each outcome below, the endpoint type, the test applied to the posted summary statistics, the result and its interpretation are given in turn. Secondary endpoints are usually not adjusted for multiple testing, so they support rather than confirm the primary finding.
| Secondary outcome | Type | Effect measure | Estimate (95% CI) | Planning size, 80% power |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pain Treatment Willingness Scale (PTWS) | Continuous Endpoint | Mean difference | -0.09 (-0.40 to 0.22) | 2,787 per arm |
| Medication Beliefs Questionnaire | Continuous Endpoint | Mean difference | 0.00 (-0.69 to 0.69) | n/a |
| Beck Hopelessness Scale (BHS) | Continuous Endpoint | Mean difference | 0.22 (-1.19 to 1.63) | 9,672 per arm |
Pain Treatment Willingness Scale (PTWS)
- Endpoint type: Continuous: a mean value per participant, compared as a difference in means.
- Test: Unadjusted two-sample z-test for the difference in means, using the posted standard deviations.
- Result:
- Pain Treatment Education: mean 3.61 versus 3.70 on control; difference -0.09 (95% CI -0.40 to 0.22), standardized effect d = -0.08; z-test p = 0.569.
- Interpretation:
- The 95% confidence interval includes no difference, so these data do not show a statistically significant difference between Pain Treatment Education and the control. The interval gives the range of effects that remain compatible with the data.
Medication Beliefs Questionnaire
- Endpoint type: Continuous: a mean value per participant, compared as a difference in means.
- Test: Unadjusted two-sample z-test for the difference in means, using the posted standard deviations.
- Result:
- Pain Treatment Education: mean 15.97 versus 15.97 on control; difference 0.00 (95% CI -0.69 to 0.69), standardized effect d = 0.00; z-test p = 1.000.
- Interpretation:
- The 95% confidence interval includes no difference, so these data do not show a statistically significant difference between Pain Treatment Education and the control. The interval gives the range of effects that remain compatible with the data.
Beck Hopelessness Scale (BHS)
- Endpoint type: Continuous: a mean value per participant, compared as a difference in means.
- Test: Unadjusted two-sample z-test for the difference in means, using the posted standard deviations.
- Result:
- Pain Treatment Education: mean 5.04 versus 4.82 on control; difference 0.22 (95% CI -1.19 to 1.63), standardized effect d = 0.04; z-test p = 0.759.
- Interpretation:
- The 95% confidence interval includes no difference, so these data do not show a statistically significant difference between Pain Treatment Education and the control. The interval gives the range of effects that remain compatible with the data.
The registry lists five secondary outcome measures that cover willingness to pursue pain treatment, medication beliefs, hopelessness, pain catastrophizing, and kinesiophobia. Numerical arm-level results and inferential comparisons are posted for the Pain Treatment Willingness Scale, Medication Beliefs Questionnaire, and Beck Hopelessness Scale. Numerical results for the other listed measures are not reported in the registry record.
Across the secondary outcomes with numerical comparisons, the observed group contrasts are close to zero relative to the uncertainty in those estimates. The posted confidence intervals for the available unadjusted mean differences include zero, and the registry's adjusted analyses do not provide confidence intervals for the adjusted contrasts. Taken together, these results do not show a consistent, precise pattern of group separation across the reported secondary measures.
These measures relate to beliefs and psychological factors that the study rationale identifies as potentially relevant to treatment engagement. They are distinct from the primary endpoint, which records whether a participant attended at least one appointment. The secondary results can offer context about participant-reported beliefs and psychological measures, but they do not directly establish whether participants initiated care or whether that care continued. The primary comparison remains the direct test of the registered treatment-initiation question.
Secondary outcomes generally carry less weight than the primary outcome because they are additional questions and may involve multiple comparisons. When many outcomes are examined, some apparently notable findings can occur by chance even if there is no underlying difference. The registry record does not report whether multiplicity adjustments were planned or applied. Therefore, secondary comparisons should be read as supportive or exploratory evidence, rather than as independent confirmation of the primary result. The incomplete numerical reporting for the listed measures further limits conclusions about the full secondary-outcome pattern.
Secondary outcomes registered for this trial, for reference (only those above were recalculated):
- Pain Treatment Willingness Scale (PTWS)
- Medication Beliefs Questionnaire
- Beck Hopelessness Scale (BHS)
- Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS)
- Tampa Scale for Kinesiophobia-17 (TSK-17)
9. Statistical Interpretation
The posted primary counts show treatment initiation for 19 of 129 participants assigned to CBT for Treatment Seeking and 17 of 136 assigned to Pain Treatment Education. The registry's own logistic-regression analysis reports an odds ratio of 1.167, with a 95% confidence interval from .603 to 2.277. The interval includes the value corresponding to no difference in odds, so the posted estimate is compatible with a range of possible group differences. The reported result does not establish a clear separation between the groups.
An unadjusted recalculation from the posted counts expresses the comparison as a risk difference, with Pain Treatment Education compared with CBT for Treatment Seeking. The estimate is close to zero, and its confidence interval spans values on both sides of zero. This broadly agrees with the registry analysis in that neither gives a precise indication of a difference between the interventions. The registry analysis and the simple recalculation use different statistical measures and should not be treated as identical estimates.
The distinction between a point estimate and its interval is important. The point estimate is the single value summarizing the observed contrast under a particular analysis. The confidence interval conveys uncertainty around that estimate. Here, the interval is wide enough to include a range of possible effects, rather than concentrating narrowly around one value. The findings therefore do not resolve whether the groups differ in treatment initiation.
The endpoint captures attendance at at least one appointment by the 6-month post-treatment follow-up. It does not measure how much treatment participants received after initiation, whether care continued, or whether pain or function changed. The result is consequently about a defined engagement outcome, not about every potential consequence of either intervention.
The registry posts secondary measures related to treatment willingness, medication beliefs, hopelessness, pain catastrophizing, and kinesiophobia. Available numerical comparisons do not provide a consistent, precise signal of separation across the reported measures. They are secondary outcomes and do not replace the primary endpoint. The registry does not report numerical results for every secondary measure named in the record, so the overall secondary-outcome evidence is incomplete.
These results describe the posted analyses for the participants with reported endpoint data. They should be interpreted in light of the difference between the enrollment figure and the primary endpoint denominators, the lack of reported detail about missing outcomes and analysis populations, and the limits of a single attendance-based endpoint. They do not establish that either intervention works or does not work.
10. Statistical Methods Explained
The primary outcome is binary: each participant is classified according to whether treatment initiation was recorded by the follow-up. The event is attending at least one appointment for non-pharmacological pain treatment. The registry reports the event counts and denominators for each group, as well as an analysis based on logistic regression. The posted comparison is a superiority analysis.
What does logistic regression contribute?
In general, logistic regression models the odds of a binary event. An odds ratio compares the odds between groups; it is not the same quantity as a difference in event proportions. An odds ratio at the null value represents equal odds between groups. The registry reports an odds ratio of 1.167 and a 95% confidence interval from .603 to 2.277. Because the interval includes the null value, the estimate remains compatible with no difference as well as with effects in either direction. The registry record does not specify the covariates, if any, included in this logistic-regression model.
What is the unadjusted risk difference?
A risk difference subtracts the event proportion in one group from the event proportion in the other. The unadjusted recalculation uses only the posted counts and denominators, without covariate adjustment. It expresses the comparison as Pain Treatment Education versus CBT for Treatment Seeking. The risk-difference estimate is close to zero, and the recalculated confidence interval crosses zero. This is a direct summary of the observed group proportions, whereas the registry's odds ratio summarizes a contrast in odds. Different measures can have different numerical scales while describing the same underlying comparison.
The registry also posts a p-value for its logistic-regression analysis, and the recalculation includes an unadjusted p-value. A p-value describes how compatible the observed data are with a specified null model under the assumptions of the test. It does not measure the probability that the null hypothesis is true, the size of an effect, or the practical importance of an estimate. The confidence interval adds information about the range of effect sizes reasonably compatible with the data and model.
How should continuous secondary outcomes be read?
For the posted secondary outcomes with numerical results, the registry gives group means and standard deviations at 6-months post-treatment. A mean is a summary of the observed scores in a group; a standard deviation describes how dispersed individual scores are around that mean. An unadjusted mean difference compares the group means. Its confidence interval describes uncertainty in that difference. These comparisons are not the same as a comparison of change from baseline: the registry entries describe scores at follow-up, and baseline-adjusted analyses are separately reported as ANCOVA.
ANCOVA is a general approach that compares group outcomes while accounting for one or more covariates. The registry names ANCOVA for the posted analyses of the Pain Treatment Willingness Scale, Medication Beliefs Questionnaire, and Beck Hopelessness Scale. For these analyses, it reports an F-value or F-test and a p-value, but does not identify the covariates or give confidence intervals for the adjusted contrasts. The unadjusted mean-difference recalculations and the registry's ANCOVA results therefore answer related but not necessarily identical statistical questions.
Why can dispersion matter?
In general, the amount of variation in an outcome affects how precisely a group mean or contrast can be estimated. Greater dispersion makes individual scores less alike and can make it harder to distinguish a group contrast from sampling variation, all else being equal. For count outcomes, over-dispersion means that variability exceeds what a simple model assumes. The primary outcome is posted as participant event counts, but the registry analysis is logistic regression rather than a count-rate model. Over-dispersion is therefore not the central issue for interpreting this binary endpoint.
The registry supplies standard deviations for the posted continuous secondary measures, so their variability can be considered alongside their group means. The confidence intervals for the unadjusted mean differences reflect both the estimated contrast and its uncertainty. The registry's adjusted analyses provide test statistics but not adjusted confidence intervals, limiting direct comparison of precision across adjusted and unadjusted results.
All recalculated comparisons are simple unadjusted analyses of posted summary statistics. They do not reproduce the registry's regression or ANCOVA models, and they do not account for unreported covariates, missing-data methods, or other features of the original analysis. Since the discrepancy indicator is false, there is no flagged conflict between the posted analysis and the recalculation. Where the registry reports its own analysis, that remains the study's posted analysis; the recalculation is a complementary descriptive check.
11. Confidence Intervals and Precision
Confidence intervals describe uncertainty in an estimated effect under the assumptions of the analysis. They do not give a range that must contain the true effect, and their width is informative: a wider interval leaves more possible values compatible with the observed data than a narrower interval. For the primary endpoint, the registry's odds-ratio interval extends from .603 to 2.277 around an estimate of 1.167. It includes the null value for an odds ratio, indicating that the posted estimate does not precisely distinguish the groups.
The unadjusted risk-difference interval also crosses zero. A risk difference of zero corresponds to equal observed event proportions; an interval spanning zero permits both a lower and a higher event proportion in Pain Treatment Education relative to CBT for Treatment Seeking. The primary event counts are modest relative to the enrollment figure, and the registry does not explain the difference between those denominators and the enrollment total. Without details on missing outcomes and the analysis population, the contribution of incomplete endpoint ascertainment to precision cannot be assessed from the registry record.
The reported intervals for the posted continuous secondary comparisons also include zero. This indicates uncertainty about the direction of those mean differences, rather than a precise estimate of a nonzero contrast. The adjusted ANCOVA entries do not include confidence intervals, so their precision cannot be read directly from the posted adjusted statistics alone.
Confidence intervals should be considered with the endpoint's definition and the analysis method. The primary interval concerns odds of documented treatment initiation, not treatment duration, pain, or function. It also reflects the statistical model used; it does not account for unreported choices such as handling of missing records or model covariates. The interval communicates uncertainty, but cannot fill gaps in the registry's description of data completeness or analysis procedures.
12. Planning a Similar Trial: Sample Size
This is a planning illustration, not a re-evaluation of the original trial. It asks: if a new study wanted to detect a difference like the one observed, or a smaller one, how large would it need to be? It is deliberately not “observed power” of the finished trial, which is not a meaningful quantity.
| Effect to detect | Participants per arm, 80% power | Participants per arm, 90% power |
|---|---|---|
| 100% of the observed effect | 3,716 | 4,974 |
| 75% of the observed effect | 6,721 | 8,996 |
| 50% of the observed effect | 15,376 | 20,583 |
The sample-size illustrations are planning calculations based on the observed effect, not the trial's original design assumptions. For these comparisons, the figures are participants per arm, not total events. The calculations use a two-sided significance level of 0.05, equal allocation between the two arms, and a normal approximation. The effect to detect is set to the stated fraction of the observed effect. The trial's own original sample-size assumptions and justification are not reported in the registry record.
The 80% power column gives the number of participants per arm the illustration estimates would be needed to have an 80% chance of detecting the specified effect under the listed assumptions, if that effect and model assumptions were correct. The 90% power column uses a higher target chance of detecting that effect and therefore requires more participants per arm. These are planning quantities, not counts observed in the trial.
Rows that plan for 100%, 75%, and 50% of the observed effect show how the required sample size changes when the target effect is smaller. A smaller effect is harder to distinguish from sampling variation, so more participants are required under the same planning assumptions. The observed effect is itself uncertain, particularly when its confidence interval is broad or includes the null value; using it as a planning input does not make it a reliable forecast of a future effect.
This is not observed power. It is an illustration of sample sizes under explicit assumptions, based on the observed effect and the stated planning method. It should not be read as a retrospective measure of the trial's ability to detect an effect, nor as evidence that the trial was or was not adequately designed. The registry's original sample-size justification is not reported.
13. How the Sample Size Is Derived
Power is the probability that a study of a given size rejects the null hypothesis when a specific true effect exists. It depends on four things: the effect to detect, the variability of the outcome, the significance level (here a two-sided α of 0.05, so z1−α/2 = 1.960) and the desired power (z1−β = 0.842 for 80% and 1.282 for 90%).
Formula
n is the number of participants in each arm, p0 and p1 are the control and treatment proportions, and p̄ is their average.
Worked calculation for this trial
- Control proportion p0 = 0.147; treatment proportion p1 = 0.125; average p̄ = 0.136.
- First term: z1−α/2 × √[2p̄(1−p̄)] = 1.96 × 0.4850 = 0.9506.
- Second term: z1−β × √[p0(1−p0) + p1(1−p1)] = 0.842 × 0.4847 = 0.4080.
- n = (0.9506 + 0.4080)2 / (-0.0223)2 = 3,715.7, rounded up to 3,716 participants per arm for 80% power.
The smaller-effect rows in the table above repeat the same calculation with the effect multiplied by 0.75 and 0.5 (for ratios, applied to the logarithm of the ratio).
R code
alpha <- 0.05
z_a <- qnorm(1 - alpha / 2) # two-sided
p0 <- 0.147286821705426 # control proportion
p1 <- 0.125 # treatment proportion
n_per_arm <- function(power, frac = 1) {
q1 <- p0 + (p1 - p0) * frac # smaller effect = fraction of the observed difference
pbar <- (p0 + q1) / 2
z_b <- qnorm(power)
ceiling(round((z_a * sqrt(2 * pbar * (1 - pbar)) + z_b * sqrt(p0 * (1 - p0) + q1 * (1 - q1)))^2 / (q1 - p0)^2, 6))
}
for (f in c(1, 0.75, 0.5))
cat(sprintf("%3.0f%% of observed effect: n per arm = %s (80%% power), %s (90%% power)\n", 100 * f,
format(n_per_arm(0.80, f), big.mark = ","), format(n_per_arm(0.90, f), big.mark = ",")))
# Check against R's built-in function (unrounded n per arm)
cat("power.prop.test:", round(power.prop.test(p1 = p0, p2 = p1, power = 0.80)$n, 1), "\n")
# Simulation: how often does the z-test reject at the 80%-power sample size?
set.seed(5363176)
n <- n_per_arm(0.80)
reps <- 20000
x0 <- rbinom(reps, n, p0); x1 <- rbinom(reps, n, p1)
ph <- (x0 + x1) / (2 * n)
z <- ((x1 - x0) / n) / sqrt(ph * (1 - ph) * 2 / n)
cat(sprintf("Simulated power at n = %s per arm: %.3f (%d replicates)\n", format(n, big.mark = ","), mean(abs(z) > z_a, na.rm = TRUE), reps))
Output from running the code
100% of observed effect: n per arm = 3,716 (80% power), 4,974 (90% power)
75% of observed effect: n per arm = 6,721 (80% power), 8,996 (90% power)
50% of observed effect: n per arm = 15,376 (80% power), 20,583 (90% power)
power.prop.test: 3715.7
Simulated power at n = 3,716 per arm: 0.801 (20000 replicates)
The simulation draws many pairs of event counts at the planned sample size and counts how often the two-proportion z-test rejects the null. It should land close to the target power; at very small required sample sizes it can fall below it, because the normal approximation is rough there.
14. Analyses Reported by the Sponsor
| Method | Estimate | 95% CI | P-value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Regression, Logistic | Odds Ratio (OR) 1.167 | .603 to 2.277 | 0.647 |
The registry's own primary analysis is logistic regression, reported as an odds ratio of 1.167 with a 95% confidence interval from .603 to 2.277. The unadjusted recalculation instead uses the posted event counts to estimate a risk difference for Pain Treatment Education relative to CBT for Treatment Seeking. These are different effect measures and use different analysis approaches, so their numerical values should not be compared as though they were estimates on the same scale.
Both analyses indicate substantial uncertainty around the comparison: the registry's odds-ratio interval includes the null value, and the recalculated risk-difference interval crosses zero. The recalculation is a simple check based on posted summary counts; it does not reproduce the registry's regression model or any adjustments that may have been used. The registry does not report the logistic model's covariates or other details needed to reconstruct it fully.
The discrepancy indicator is false, so no conflict is flagged between the registry analysis and the recalculation. The registry analysis remains the sponsor-reported result, while the unadjusted result supplies a complementary view of the group counts. Neither result should be interpreted as establishing a treatment effect, and the registry record does not provide enough methodological detail to explain every modeling choice.
15. Multiplicity, Missing Data and Analysis Populations
The registry identifies a primary outcome and lists secondary outcomes, but it does not report a multiplicity strategy. Multiplicity arises when analyses address several outcomes or contrasts: the more comparisons made, the greater the possibility of observing an apparently notable result by chance. Methods such as adjustment of significance thresholds or a pre-specified hierarchy can address that issue, but whether any such approach was used is not reported in the registry record. The posted secondary results should therefore be interpreted with caution, especially when considered separately from the primary outcome.
Important details about missing data are also not reported. The enrollment entry is 300, while primary endpoint data are posted for 129 participants in the CBT for Treatment Seeking group and 136 in the Pain Treatment Education group. The registry does not explain the difference, describe missingness by group, state how a missing medical record was classified, or specify whether imputation or another missing-data method was used. The posted counts alone do not establish why participants are absent from the endpoint denominators.
The analysis population is not defined in enough detail to determine whether the reported comparisons include all randomized participants, only participants with available outcome data, or another subset. The registry does not report whether an intention-to-treat principle was used, how exclusions were handled, or whether participants were analyzed according to assigned intervention. Those details affect how the results can be interpreted and reproduced.
The registry names logistic regression for the primary outcome and ANCOVA for several secondary outcomes, but does not provide the full statistical analysis plan, covariates, model diagnostics, or handling of protocol deviations. The methods and adjustment set for the adjusted analyses are therefore not fully described in the registry record. These omissions do not change the posted estimates, but they limit assessment of robustness and the ability to reproduce the sponsor's analyses.
16. Safety Results
The registry reports serious adverse events as affected participants divided by participants at risk.
| Arm | Participants with serious adverse events | Participants at risk | Percentage |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBT for Treatment Seeking | 10 | 151 | 6.6% |
| Pain Treatment Education | 12 | 149 | 8.1% |
Deaths
| Arm | Deaths (participants affected of at risk) |
|---|---|
| CBT for Treatment Seeking | 1 of 151 |
| Pain Treatment Education | 0 of 149 |
Other (non-serious) adverse events
Participants with at least one non-serious event at or above the registry's 0% reporting threshold.
| Arm | Participants affected of at risk |
|---|---|
| CBT for Treatment Seeking | 28 of 151 |
| Pain Treatment Education | 28 of 149 |
Most frequent serious adverse event terms
| Event term | Organ system | CBT for Treatment Seeking | Pain Treatment Education |
|---|---|---|---|
| Surgery/procedure | Surgical and medical procedures | 3 of 151 | 2 of 149 |
| Hospitalization associated with respiratory issues | Respiratory, thoracic and mediastinal disorders | 0 of 151 | 4 of 149 |
| cardiac issues | Cardiac disorders | 2 of 151 | 1 of 149 |
| Musculoskeletal pain | Musculoskeletal and connective tissue disorders | 1 of 151 | 2 of 149 |
| Fatigue | General disorders | 1 of 151 | 1 of 149 |
| Gastrointestinal issues | Gastrointestinal disorders | 1 of 151 | 1 of 149 |
| Hospitalization associated with renal functioning | Renal and urinary disorders | 0 of 151 | 2 of 149 |
| Encephalopathy | Nervous system disorders | 1 of 151 | 0 of 149 |
| Car accident | Injury, poisoning and procedural complications | 1 of 151 | 0 of 149 |
| Leukemia | Blood and lymphatic system disorders | 0 of 151 | 1 of 149 |
Most frequent non-serious adverse event terms
| Event term | Organ system | CBT for Treatment Seeking | Pain Treatment Education |
|---|---|---|---|
| Musculoskeletal pain | Musculoskeletal and connective tissue disorders | 5 of 151 | 9 of 149 |
| Emergency department visit related to respiratory issues | Respiratory, thoracic and mediastinal disorders | 8 of 151 | 5 of 149 |
| Psychiatric distress | Psychiatric disorders | 2 of 151 | 7 of 149 |
| Outpatient procedure | Surgical and medical procedures | 6 of 151 | 2 of 149 |
| Abdominal or other pain related to GI system | Gastrointestinal disorders | 6 of 151 | 1 of 149 |
| Infections | Infections and infestations | 3 of 151 | 4 of 149 |
| Emergency department visit related to skin | Skin and subcutaneous tissue disorders | 2 of 151 | 3 of 149 |
| Fall or accident | Injury, poisoning and procedural complications | 2 of 151 | 3 of 149 |
| Emergency department visit related to reproductive organs | Reproductive system and breast disorders | 2 of 151 | 1 of 149 |
| Weakness, achiness, general pain | General disorders | 2 of 151 | 0 of 149 |
Serious events with the highest arm-level rate: hospitalization associated with respiratory issues (2.7%), surgery/procedure (2.0%), musculoskeletal pain (1.3%), hospitalization associated with renal functioning (1.3%), cardiac issues (1.3%).
The registry posts serious adverse event figures separately from the primary treatment-initiation outcome. For CBT for Treatment Seeking, 10 of 151 participants at risk were affected by serious adverse events; for Pain Treatment Education, 12 of 149 at risk were affected. Other adverse events affected 28 of 151 participants in the CBT group and 28 of 149 in the education group. The registry also records one death in the CBT group and zero in the education group.
These are counts with the stated at-risk denominators, not estimates of whether an intervention caused an event. The record does not provide enough detail to assess event timing, attribution, severity criteria, or whether an event was related to treatment. The listed serious-event terms include hospitalization associated with respiratory issues at 2.7%, surgery/procedure at 2.0%, musculoskeletal pain at 1.3%, hospitalization associated with renal functioning at 1.3%, cardiac issues at 1.3%, and fatigue at 0.7%.
Serious adverse event counts and the primary endpoint answer different questions and should not be conflated. These safety figures describe events recorded in the registry; they do not by themselves establish comparative safety or causation.
17. What the Result Does, and Does Not, Mean
The primary result concerns a specific engagement outcome: documented attendance at at least one non-pharmacological pain-treatment appointment by 6-months post-treatment. The posted counts are similar in scale between groups, and the registry's odds-ratio confidence interval includes the null value. The unadjusted risk-difference interval also crosses zero. The available evidence therefore does not precisely distinguish the groups on this outcome.
That uncertainty is not proof that the interventions are equivalent. A confidence interval spanning the null can include a range of effects, including potentially meaningful differences in either direction. Establishing equivalence or non-inferiority requires a design and analysis that directly address those questions, and such an objective is not reported in the registry record. The posted trial is described as a superiority analysis.
The result also does not address all aspects of pain care. The endpoint counts initiation, not how many sessions a participant attended, whether treatment was sustained, or whether pain, function, medication use, or quality of life changed. The registry's secondary measures provide some information on related beliefs and psychological constructs, but do not substitute for those unmeasured or unreported outcomes.
The findings are specific to Veterans with chronic pain who use prescription opioids and to the two telehealth behavioral sessions described in the registry. The record does not report enough eligibility, implementation, or participant-characteristic detail to assess how closely the enrolled sample represents other populations or settings. Generalization beyond the studied population and interventions is therefore uncertain.
Finally, the distinction between enrollment and reported endpoint denominators, along with unreported missing-data and analysis-population details, limits assessment of how complete the primary comparison is. The result describes the posted data and analysis; it does not establish that either intervention works or does not work, and it is not a basis for individual treatment decisions.
18. Why This Trial Matters Statistically
This trial raises a clear statistical question about engagement: whether a brief telehealth intervention targeting treatment-seeking beliefs differs from pain-treatment education in the likelihood of initiating non-pharmacological pain care. The primary endpoint translates that question into a defined, observable event rather than relying only on stated willingness or intention. It is therefore useful to distinguish actual documented initiation from beliefs that might precede it.
The registry also illustrates why effect measures and uncertainty need to be read together. The sponsor's logistic-regression result is an odds ratio, while the simple recalculation is a risk difference based on the observed counts. Each describes the comparison on a different scale. Both estimates are uncertain, and the intervals do not establish a clear separation. Reporting both the outcome counts and the model-based result helps clarify what was observed and what remains unresolved.
Interpretation also depends on outcome ascertainment. Medical-record review provides a measure of documented attendance, but it may not capture every form of treatment use unless records are complete and accessible. The registry's lack of detail on record coverage, missing data, and the analysis population is therefore statistically important, not merely administrative.
Finally, the secondary measures connect the trial rationale with psychological and belief-related outcomes, but multiple comparisons and incomplete reporting constrain how much they can add to the primary finding. Reading the primary endpoint, secondary outcomes, uncertainty, and missing methodological details together gives a more balanced account than focusing on any single point estimate or p-value.
19. Limitations
- The posted summary statistics are the only data these results rest on; patient-level data, full protocols and statistical analysis plans are not available.
- Recalculated results are simple, unadjusted calculations from posted summaries. They do not replace the sponsor's prespecified analysis.
The primary endpoint is a narrow measure of treatment engagement: attendance at at least one appointment. It does not capture continuation, intensity, or completion of non-pharmacological treatment. Nor does it directly measure pain or functional outcomes. Its reliance on medical-record review makes the result dependent on documentation and record availability, while the registry does not report how records from different care settings were handled or how incomplete documentation was classified.
The posted primary denominators are smaller than the enrollment figure of 300, but the registry does not explain the difference. Missing-data rates, reasons for missing outcomes, and the approach to missing records are not reported. Because the analysis population is also unspecified, the extent to which the comparison represents all randomized participants is unclear.
The interventions are described as single telehealth sessions of approximately 45 minutes, but further information about content delivery, adherence, provider training, and fidelity is not reported in the registry record. The record also does not state which parties were masked despite labeling the study double masked. These omissions limit assessment of intervention implementation and risk of bias.
Several secondary measures are named, but numerical results are posted for only some of them. The registry does not report a multiplicity strategy, and the adjusted ANCOVA entries omit confidence intervals and covariate details. The primary logistic-regression covariates are likewise not reported. These gaps restrict evaluation of the full analysis and the robustness of adjusted comparisons.
Lastly, the trial concerns Veterans with chronic pain who use prescription opioids, and the registry does not provide extensive participant characteristics or eligibility details. The applicability of the results to other populations, treatment settings, or intervention formats cannot be fully assessed from the registry record.
20. Related Tutorials
21. Related Statistical Calculators
22. Sources
- ClinicalTrials.gov: Treatment, Pain, and Opioids — NCT05363176.
- Registry record last updated 2026-05-29; status last verified 2026-05.
- Results first posted 2026-05-29.
- Data retrieved from ClinicalTrials.gov on 2026-11-09.
- Group sizes, means, event counts and sponsor-reported p-values are reproduced as posted. Effect estimates, confidence intervals and p-values not attributed to the sponsor are independently calculated from the posted summary statistics.
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23. Record Summary
NCT05363176 is a completed, randomized, double-masked, parallel trial sponsored by the VA Office of Research and Development. It compared one telehealth session of Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy for Treatment Seeking with one telehealth session of pain treatment education among Veterans with chronic pain who use prescription opioids. The registry lists enrollment of 300.
The primary outcome was initiation of non-pharmacological pain treatment by 6-months post-treatment, defined as attending at least one appointment and assessed through medical-record review. The posted event counts are 19 of 129 in the CBT group and 17 of 136 in the education group. The sponsor-reported logistic-regression estimate is an odds ratio of 1.167, with a 95% confidence interval from .603 to 2.277. The interval includes the null value, and the unadjusted recalculation is likewise uncertain.
The record lists secondary measures and serious adverse event counts, but important details about missing data, analysis populations, covariates, and multiplicity are not reported. The results describe the posted treatment-initiation comparison and should be interpreted within those reporting limits.