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Adult Giant Cell Glioblastoma Phase 2 Binary Endpoint NCT00238303

Vorinostat in Treating Patients With Progressive or Recurrent Glioblastoma Multiforme: Complete Statistical Analysis

This analysis examines a phase II trial of vorinostat in recurrent glioblastoma, focusing on the registry’s six-month alive-and-progression-free endpoint. It also explains the uncertainty around comparisons among the reported patient strata and the limits of the registry’s secondary and safety results.

Trial start: 2005-09  ·  Enrollment: 103  ·  Sponsor: National Cancer Institute (NCI)
Scope of this record

This page provides an independent statistical analysis and educational interpretation of publicly reported results. ClinicalTrials.gov provides the official trial registry record. Numerical trial results on this page are restricted to the results posted in the ClinicalTrials.gov record; calculations added by Clinical Biostats are labelled as such.

1. Trial at a Glance

This page covers the registry results for Vorinostat in Treating Patients With Progressive or Recurrent Glioblastoma Multiforme (NCT00238303), a randomized phase 2 study. The primary outcome is Proportion of Successes (Patients Alive and Progression-free).

103
Enrollment
Phase 2
3
Arms
In the primary outcome
+11.5 pts
Risk difference
Stratum 2 (Undergoing Surgery)
-12.5 to 35.5 pts
95% CI
Two-sided
FeatureRegistry value
ClinicalTrials.gov identifierNCT00238303
PhasePhase 2
ConditionAdult Giant Cell Glioblastoma, Adult Glioblastoma, Adult Gliosarcoma
AllocationRandomized
Design modelParallel
MaskingNone (open label)
Enrollment103
Arms in the primary outcome3
Lead sponsorNational Cancer Institute (NCI)
Results postedYes

2. Clinical Question

Population

Adults with progressive or recurrent glioblastoma multiforme were the population of interest. The registry lists adult glioblastoma, adult giant cell glioblastoma, adult gliosarcoma, and recurrent adult brain tumor among the conditions. For the primary result, 68 Stratum 1 patients were enrolled; 2 did not receive treatment, and the remaining 66 were analyzed.

Intervention

The intervention was oral vorinostat, also called suberoylanilide hydroxamic acid or SAHA. In the non-surgery Stratum 1 description, patients received it twice daily for 2 weeks, with courses repeating every 3 weeks if disease had not progressed and toxicity remained acceptable. The surgery stratum received SAHA before surgery and again after surgery.

Comparator

The registry identifies the trial allocation as randomized, with no masking and a parallel model. The posted results use Stratum 1 as the reference for comparisons with Stratum 2 and Stratum 3. These are reported strata, not a clearly described common control group; the details of how patients were assigned to strata are not reported in the registry record.

Primary question

What proportion of patients were alive and progression-free at 6 months? The endpoint treats success as being both alive and progression-free at that time. The record also reports results for surgery and non-surgery strata, but the clinical question should not be read as a direct randomized comparison of surgery versus no surgery: the record does not establish that interpretation.

3. Trial Design

This was a phase II trial of vorinostat in patients with progressive or recurrent glioblastoma. The registry lists the allocation as randomized, the masking as none, and the model as parallel. Enrollment was 103. The study began in 2005-09, reached primary completion in 2008-07, and is listed as completed. The sponsor was the National Cancer Institute.

The intervention descriptions distinguish patients undergoing surgery from those not undergoing surgery. Stratum 1 patients were described as not undergoing surgery and received oral SAHA twice daily for 2 weeks, with courses repeated every 3 weeks in the absence of progression or unacceptable toxicity. Stratum 2 patients were described as undergoing surgery: SAHA began before the operation, patients then underwent tumor-removal surgery, and postoperative SAHA was to begin within 1-4 weeks. The postoperative course description is truncated in the registry record. The results also include Stratum 3, described as not undergoing surgery; a complete treatment description for this stratum is not reported in the registry record.

The primary analysis population is specifically described as 66 Stratum 1 patients who started treatment. The record says 68 Stratum 1 patients were enrolled and 2 did not receive treatment. Results for Stratum 2 and Stratum 3 use 15 and 20 patients, respectively. Although the overall trial allocation is labelled randomized, the record does not explain the randomization procedure or how the reported strata relate to that allocation. The original statistical analysis plan, including its intended comparisons and any planned interim analyses, is not reported in the registry record.

4. Participant Flow and Accounting

The registry reports how participants moved through each stage of the study. All counts below are exactly as posted; missing counts are not inferred from other stages.

Overall Study

StageStratum 1 (Not Undergoing Surgery)Stratum 2 (Undergoing Surgery)Stratum 3 (Not Undergoing Surgery)
STARTED681520
COMPLETED531311
NOT COMPLETED1529

Reasons for not completing this period:

ReasonStratum 1 (Not Undergoing Surgery)Stratum 2 (Undergoing Surgery)Stratum 3 (Not Undergoing Surgery)
Withdrawal by Subject1112
Death101
Other Medical Problems202
Poor tolerance of study treatment101
Adverse Event013

Analysis population for the primary outcome, as defined in the registry: 68 Stratum 1 patients were enrolled. 2 stratum 1 patients did not receive treatment. Therefore, the remaining 66 patients were analyzed.

5. Baseline Characteristics

The table reproduces the baseline characteristics posted in the registry, which describe the participants analysed at baseline and help show whether the randomized groups were comparable.

CharacteristicUnitStratum 1 (Not Undergoing Surgery)Stratum 2 (Undergoing Surgery)Stratum 3 (Not Undergoing Surgery)Total
Participants analysed681520103
Age, Continuousyears58 (26 to 78)49 (23 to 61)55.5 (25 to 78)56 (23 to 78)
Sex: Female, Male: FemaleParticipants3041044
Sex: Female, Male: MaleParticipants38111059
Region of Enrollment: United Statesparticipants681520103

6. Primary Endpoint

The registry lists the primary outcome as Proportion of Successes (Patients Alive and Progression-free), measured over At 6 months.

ElementRegistry entry
Result typeNumber
Measure of spread95% Confidence Interval
Unitpercentage of participants
Endpoint classificationBinary Endpoint

The primary endpoint is the proportion of participants who were alive and progression-free at 6 months. It combines survival status with disease status at a specified time: a patient counts as a success only if both conditions are met. This kind of endpoint gives a time-specific summary of whether patients are alive without recorded progression, rather than describing tumor response alone.

The registry describes the estimate as the number of successes divided by the total number of evaluable patients. It specifies a binomial point estimator and an exact 95% confidence interval. Progression was defined using changes in measurable disease or, for evaluable disease that was not bidimensionally measurable, an unequivocal increase in enhancement or mass effect as agreed upon by the primary physician and quality control physicians, or the appearance of new lesions. For bidimensionally measurable disease, the definition includes a >25% increase in the product of perpendicular diameters or new lesions.

The endpoint is useful for conveying a clinically interpretable milestone, but it does not describe when progression occurred within the interval or how long patients remained progression-free after 6 months. The registry’s definition and estimate therefore need to be read as a specific time-point proportion, not as a complete account of survival or disease course.

7. Results Posted in the Registry

Risk difference: Stratum 2 (Undergoing Surgery)

+11.5

95% CI: -12.5 to 35.5 percentage points

Recalculated from the posted summary statistics

Primary outcome by arm, with 95% confidence intervals
Primary outcome by arm with 95% confidence intervals0.011.422.734.145.556.9Stratum 1 Patients That Start… (n=66)Stratum 2 (Undergoing Surgery) (n=15)Stratum 3 (Not Undergoing Sur… (n=20)% of participants (95% CI)
Treatment effect versus the control arm
Forest plot of risk difference (percentage points) vs control (95% CI)Stratum 2 (Undergoing Surgery)Stratum 3 (Not Undergoing Sur…-25-120.77142740risk difference (percentage points) vs control (95% CI)

8. Secondary Efficacy Endpoints

The registry also posts results for secondary outcomes. For each outcome below, the endpoint type, the test applied to the posted summary statistics, the result and its interpretation are given in turn. Secondary endpoints are usually not adjusted for multiple testing, so they support rather than confirm the primary finding.

Secondary outcomeTypeEffect measureEstimate (95% CI)Planning size, 80% power
Confirmed Tumor ResponseBinary EndpointRisk difference-3.0 pts (-7.2 to 1.1)n/a

Confirmed Tumor Response

Treatment effect versus the control arm
Forest plot of risk difference (percentage points) vs control (95% CI)Stratum 3 (Not Undergoing Sur…-7.83-5.91-3.99-2.07-0.151.77risk difference (percentage points) vs control (95% CI)

The registry lists survival, confirmed tumor response, and time to progression as secondary outcomes. Numerical results are posted for confirmed tumor response, while detailed numerical results for survival and time to progression are not reported in the registry record. The confirmed-response results therefore provide only a partial view of the secondary outcome set and should not be treated as a complete account of the trial’s secondary findings.

The response outcome addresses whether a tumor response was confirmed, whereas the primary endpoint asks whether a patient was both alive and progression-free at 6 months. These outcomes are related through disease status, but they are not interchangeable: a patient may be progression-free without a confirmed response, and response status alone does not capture survival at the primary time point. The secondary results therefore add context but do not directly verify or negate the primary result.

Secondary outcome findings generally carry less weight when the analysis plan and multiplicity approach are not reported. Testing or examining several outcomes and groups can increase the chance of apparently notable findings arising by chance. The record does not report a multiplicity adjustment or a hierarchy that would identify which secondary outcome was intended to be confirmatory. The reported secondary comparisons should consequently be read as descriptive or exploratory rather than as independent confirmation of the primary result.

The absence of posted survival and time-to-progression estimates limits any assessment of consistency across outcomes. It is not appropriate to infer their results from the primary endpoint or from the response outcome. Likewise, a lack of a reported analysis is not evidence that no events occurred. The secondary record supports a cautious, incomplete interpretation: it describes the scope of outcomes assessed and offers some response data, but does not provide a full set of results capable of establishing a consistent pattern across endpoints.

Secondary outcomes registered for this trial, for reference (only those above were recalculated):

9. Statistical Interpretation

Clinical Biostats interpretation

For the primary endpoint, 15.2% of the 66 treated Stratum 1 patients were reported as alive and progression-free at 6 months; the 95% confidence interval is 7.5% to 26.1%. The interval is wide, so the point estimate should not be read as a highly precise value for the underlying proportion. The corresponding reported estimates are 26.7% for Stratum 2, with a 95% confidence interval of 7.8% to 55.1%, and 10.0% for Stratum 3, with a 95% confidence interval of 1.2% to 31.7%.

The recalculated unadjusted risk difference for Stratum 2 compared with Stratum 1 is 0.115, with a 95% confidence interval from -0.125 to 0.355 and p = 0.287. For Stratum 3 compared with Stratum 1, it is -0.051, with a 95% confidence interval from -0.209 to 0.106 and p = 0.56. Both intervals include zero, so these data do not establish a difference between either stratum and Stratum 1. The estimates are also compatible with differences in either direction. These are unadjusted recalculations from the posted summary statistics, not analyses identified as the sponsor’s planned comparisons.

Interpretation is limited by the small numbers in the surgery and Stratum 3 groups and by the lack of a reported explanation of how the strata were assigned. The record labels the trial randomized, but that label alone does not establish that these stratum comparisons are randomized treatment contrasts. In particular, the surgical stratum differs by whether patients underwent surgery, and the registry does not provide enough detail to attribute an observed difference to surgery or to vorinostat timing.

The record also reports confirmed tumor response as a secondary outcome, but the secondary outcome results should not replace the primary time-point endpoint. Survival and time to progression are listed among the secondary outcomes, but detailed results for those outcomes are not reported in the registry record. Overall, the posted primary data describe the observed six-month proportions and their substantial uncertainty; they do not support a confident causal ranking of the reported strata.

10. Statistical Methods Explained

The primary outcome is binary: each evaluable patient either met the definition of alive and progression-free at 6 months or did not. For a binary outcome, the basic proportion is the number meeting the definition divided by the number evaluated. The registry explicitly describes this binomial point estimator. It reports 15.2% for the treated Stratum 1 population, whose analysis denominator is 66. The confidence interval expresses uncertainty around that estimated proportion rather than a range containing a fixed share of individual patient outcomes.

The registry specifies an exact binomial method for the 95% confidence interval. Exact methods are based on the binomial distribution and are commonly used for proportions, including when the number of patients or observed successes is limited. The interval can be asymmetric around the point estimate; that is not an error. It reflects the discrete nature of counts and the limits of plausible underlying proportions given the observed data. The resulting intervals are broad for the smaller reported strata, consistent with the limited information contributed by those group sizes.

Progression is not simply a judgment based on one universally stated measurement. The registry definition distinguishes bidimensionally measurable disease from evaluable disease that is not bidimensionally measurable. For measurable disease, it describes a >25% increase in the product of perpendicular diameters of contrast enhancement or mass, or the appearance of new lesions. For evaluable disease, it describes an unequivocal increase in contrast enhancement or mass effect, with agreement by the primary physician and quality control physicians, or new lesions. This operational definition matters because classification as progression determines whether a patient can count as progression-free at the endpoint.

The posted comparisons use risk differences. A risk difference subtracts the reference group’s event proportion from the comparison group’s event proportion; its sign indicates which reported proportion is larger. The intervals for these recalculations are on the risk-difference scale, and an interval containing zero does not rule out either a lower or higher underlying proportion in the comparison group. The registry also includes unadjusted p-values for these comparisons. They are recalculated from posted summary statistics, and the record does not identify them as sponsor-reported inferential analyses. No adjustment for other factors is described for these calculations.

The risk differences and p-values require particular caution because the record presents Stratum 1, Stratum 2, and Stratum 3, but does not explain how the strata map to randomized assignment. The registry’s overall design label is randomized; it does not, by itself, show that the surgery and non-surgery strata form exchangeable groups. Differences may reflect patient selection or other features not described in the record. A statistical comparison of proportions cannot resolve that design uncertainty.

Confidence intervals and p-values answer related but different questions. A confidence interval conveys the range of effect estimates compatible with the data under the method’s assumptions and indicates precision. A p-value measures how unusual the observed result, or a more extreme result, would be under a stated null hypothesis and model. A p-value is not the probability that the null hypothesis is true, and it does not measure clinical importance. Here, the broad intervals are important for interpretation even where a single p-value is available.

The registry lists secondary outcomes of survival, confirmed tumor response, and time to progression. Confirmed tumor response has posted results, including estimates and intervals for some groups, while response for the surgery group is not estimable from the posted result because its reported denominator is zero. The record gives no reported analyses for that secondary outcome. Detailed survival and time-to-progression estimates are not reported in the registry record. The presence of outcome names in the registry is not equivalent to having complete numerical results or a prespecified analysis for each outcome.

The statistical analysis plan, including model choices beyond the described binomial estimator, handling of censoring, treatment of missing outcome status, covariate adjustment, and interim analyses, is not reported in the registry record. These details should not be inferred from the trial’s phase or design labels. Similarly, the registry does not report the original sample-size justification or the assumptions used in the trial’s own design. The separate sample-size illustrations use stated planning assumptions and are not evidence of the trial’s original design rationale or its achieved power.

11. Confidence Intervals and Precision

The primary estimate for Stratum 1 is 15.2%, with a 95% confidence interval of 7.5% to 26.1%. This interval indicates substantial uncertainty around the estimated proportion: values across a broad range remain compatible with the observed data under the exact binomial method. It should not be interpreted as a prediction interval for individual patients or as a guarantee that the underlying proportion lies within those limits.

The intervals for the other reported strata are also broad. Stratum 2 has an estimate of 26.7%, with limits from 7.8% to 55.1%; Stratum 3 has an estimate of 10.0%, with limits from 1.2% to 31.7%. The relatively small group sizes contribute to limited precision, particularly for Stratum 2. The point estimates differ, but the uncertainty intervals overlap broadly. Overlap is not itself a formal test of a difference; the recalculated risk-difference intervals provide a direct estimate of uncertainty for the comparisons.

For Stratum 2 versus Stratum 1, the recalculated risk-difference interval extends from -0.125 to 0.355. For Stratum 3 versus Stratum 1, it extends from -0.209 to 0.106. Both intervals include zero and encompass effects in opposite directions. Thus, the comparisons are imprecise and do not distinguish a difference from no difference. The trial’s stratification and allocation details are also insufficiently described to support a strong causal interpretation of these contrasts.

Precision is not the same as validity or importance. A narrow interval would describe statistical precision under the analysis assumptions, while design limitations could still affect whether an estimate answers a causal question. Conversely, a wide interval does not show that there is no effect; it shows that the data leave considerable uncertainty about its size and direction.

12. Planning a Similar Trial: Sample Size

This is a planning illustration, not a re-evaluation of the original trial. It asks: if a new study wanted to detect a difference like the one observed, or a smaller one, how large would it need to be? It is deliberately not “observed power” of the finished trial, which is not a meaningful quantity.

Effect to detectParticipants per arm, 80% powerParticipants per arm, 90% power
100% of the observed effect195261
75% of the observed effect329440
50% of the observed effect699935
Sample size needed versus the size of the effect to detect
Sample size needed versus size of effect to detect2005001,0002,00040%60%80%100%80% power90% powersize of effect to detect, as % of the effect observed (log vertical scale: participants per arm)
Treat these figures cautiously. The observed difference is imprecise: its confidence interval includes no difference at all. A sample size built on a noisy estimate can be far too small or too large, so the smaller-effect rows are the more cautious guide.
Method and assumptions. Two-sided α = 0.05, 1:1 allocation, pooled-variance normal approximation for two proportions. Counts were reconstructed from the posted percentages and arm sizes, so small rounding differences are possible. Calculated for the comparison: Stratum 2 (Undergoing Surgery).

The sample-size illustrations use a two-sided significance level of 0.05, equal allocation between two arms, and a normal approximation. The effect to detect is set to a stated fraction of the observed effect. The entries give participants per arm for 80% power and participants per arm for 90% power. They are planning illustrations based on the observed effect, not the original trial’s design assumptions, which are not reported in the registry record.

The 80% power column gives the number of participants per arm estimated to be needed for an 80% chance of detecting the specified effect under those planning assumptions, if that effect is truly present. The 90% power column describes the corresponding planning target for a 90% chance. These are prospective design calculations, not claims about what the completed trial achieved. This is not observed power.

Rows use different fractions of the observed effect. Planning for 75% of the observed effect or 50% of the observed effect means targeting a smaller effect than planning for 100% of the observed effect. Smaller effects are harder to distinguish from random variation, so the illustrations require more participants per arm as the target effect gets smaller. The displayed requirements can be large, particularly for the comparison with a smaller observed difference.

The figures apply only to the stated comparison and assumptions. They do not account for a different allocation scheme, losses to follow-up, covariate adjustment, multiplicity, or a different statistical model unless such features are explicitly included; those features are not part of the stated illustration. For time-to-event outcomes, the record’s general note says sample-size entries would refer to total events using the Schoenfeld approach, while other entries refer to participants per arm. These particular illustrations are expressed as participants per arm.

13. How the Sample Size Is Derived

Power is the probability that a study of a given size rejects the null hypothesis when a specific true effect exists. It depends on four things: the effect to detect, the variability of the outcome, the significance level (here a two-sided α of 0.05, so z1−α/2 = 1.960) and the desired power (z1−β = 0.842 for 80% and 1.282 for 90%).

Formula

n = [ z1−α/2 √(2p̄(1−p̄)) + z1−β √(p0(1−p0) + p1(1−p1)) ]2 / (p1 − p0)2

n is the number of participants in each arm, p0 and p1 are the control and treatment proportions, and p̄ is their average.

Worked calculation for this trial

  1. Control proportion p0 = 0.152; treatment proportion p1 = 0.267; average p̄ = 0.209.
  2. First term: z1−α/2 × √[2p̄(1−p̄)] = 1.96 × 0.5751 = 1.1272.
  3. Second term: z1−β × √[p0(1−p0) + p1(1−p1)] = 0.842 × 0.5693 = 0.4791.
  4. n = (1.1272 + 0.4791)2 / (0.1152)2 = 194.6, rounded up to 195 participants per arm for 80% power.

The smaller-effect rows in the table above repeat the same calculation with the effect multiplied by 0.75 and 0.5 (for ratios, applied to the logarithm of the ratio).

R code

alpha <- 0.05
z_a   <- qnorm(1 - alpha / 2)          # two-sided
p0 <- 0.151515151515152                          # control proportion
p1 <- 0.266666666666667                          # treatment proportion
n_per_arm <- function(power, frac = 1) {
  q1 <- p0 + (p1 - p0) * frac               # smaller effect = fraction of the observed difference
  pbar <- (p0 + q1) / 2
  z_b <- qnorm(power)
  ceiling(round((z_a * sqrt(2 * pbar * (1 - pbar)) + z_b * sqrt(p0 * (1 - p0) + q1 * (1 - q1)))^2 / (q1 - p0)^2, 6))
}
for (f in c(1, 0.75, 0.5))
  cat(sprintf("%3.0f%% of observed effect: n per arm = %s (80%% power), %s (90%% power)\n", 100 * f,
              format(n_per_arm(0.80, f), big.mark = ","), format(n_per_arm(0.90, f), big.mark = ",")))

# Check against R's built-in function (unrounded n per arm)
cat("power.prop.test:", round(power.prop.test(p1 = p0, p2 = p1, power = 0.80)$n, 1), "\n")

# Simulation: how often does the z-test reject at the 80%-power sample size?
set.seed(238303)
n    <- n_per_arm(0.80)
reps <- 20000
x0 <- rbinom(reps, n, p0); x1 <- rbinom(reps, n, p1)
ph <- (x0 + x1) / (2 * n)
z  <- ((x1 - x0) / n) / sqrt(ph * (1 - ph) * 2 / n)
cat(sprintf("Simulated power at n = %s per arm: %.3f (%d replicates)\n", format(n, big.mark = ","), mean(abs(z) > z_a, na.rm = TRUE), reps))

Output from running the code

100% of observed effect: n per arm = 195 (80% power), 261 (90% power)
 75% of observed effect: n per arm = 329 (80% power), 440 (90% power)
 50% of observed effect: n per arm = 699 (80% power), 935 (90% power)
power.prop.test: 194.6 
Simulated power at n = 195 per arm: 0.806 (20000 replicates)

The simulation draws many pairs of event counts at the planned sample size and counts how often the two-proportion z-test rejects the null. It should land close to the target power; at very small required sample sizes it can fall below it, because the normal approximation is rough there.

14. Multiplicity, Missing Data and Analysis Populations

The registry lists multiple outcomes: the primary six-month alive-and-progression-free proportion, survival, confirmed tumor response, and time to progression. Comparisons are also presented across the reported strata. When several outcomes or group comparisons are examined, the chance of at least one apparently unusual result can increase. Statistical methods can address that multiplicity, for example by adjusting thresholds or defining a hierarchy of hypotheses, but no such approach is reported in the registry record.

The record does not provide a full statistical analysis plan. It does not report whether secondary outcomes were intended as confirmatory or exploratory, whether subgroup comparisons were prespecified, or whether interim analyses were planned. The number of analyses reported in the registry is zero, despite the presence of posted outcome results and recalculated comparisons. The recalculated unadjusted p-values should therefore not be mistaken for a documented sponsor analysis or for multiplicity-adjusted evidence.

The primary population description is informative about treatment initiation: 68 Stratum 1 patients were enrolled, 2 did not receive treatment, and the remaining 66 were analyzed. However, the record does not describe how missing six-month status was handled, whether all patients had complete follow-up at that time, or whether any censoring or imputation method was used. The exact binomial method is specified for the interval, but that alone does not describe the handling of missing outcome data.

The registry’s allocation label is randomized, but the relationship between randomization and the three reported strata is not explained. Details of sequence generation, concealment, stratification factors, and analysis by assigned group are not reported in the registry record. The posted population is described as patients who started treatment for Stratum 1, which is not necessarily the same as an analysis of all randomized patients. The record does not report an intention-to-treat analysis or a per-protocol definition.

These omissions do not establish that particular methods were absent from the study; they mean that the registry record does not document them. They limit assessment of selection, missing-data bias, and the risk of chance findings across multiple outcomes. Interpretation should rest on the reported endpoint definitions and estimates while recognizing that important analysis details are unavailable.

15. Safety Results

The registry reports serious adverse events as affected participants divided by participants at risk.

ArmParticipants with serious adverse eventsParticipants at riskPercentage
Stratum 1 (Not Undergoing Surgery)136619.7%
Stratum 2 (Undergoing Surgery)31520.0%
Stratum 3 (Not Undergoing Surgery)42020.0%
Participants with at least one serious adverse event
Serious adverse events by armStratum 1 (Not Undergoing Sur…19.7%Stratum 2 (Undergoing Surgery)20.0%Stratum 3 (Not Undergoing Sur…20.0%% of participants with at least one serious adverse event

Other (non-serious) adverse events

Participants with at least one non-serious event at or above the registry's 0% reporting threshold.

ArmParticipants affected of at risk
Stratum 1 (Not Undergoing Surgery)65 of 66
Stratum 2 (Undergoing Surgery)14 of 15
Stratum 3 (Not Undergoing Surgery)19 of 20

Most frequent serious adverse event terms

Event termOrgan systemStratum 1 (Not Undergoing Surgery)Stratum 2 (Undergoing Surgery)Stratum 3 (Not Undergoing Surgery)
Platelet count decreasedInvestigations7 of 660 of 151 of 20
PneumoniaInfections and infestations3 of 660 of 150 of 20
Neutrophil count decreasedInvestigations3 of 660 of 150 of 20
Peripheral motor neuropathyNervous system disorders2 of 660 of 151 of 20
SeizureNervous system disorders2 of 660 of 151 of 20
ConfusionPsychiatric disorders3 of 660 of 150 of 20
ThrombosisVascular disorders3 of 660 of 150 of 20
Disease progressionGeneral disorders1 of 660 of 151 of 20
FatigueGeneral disorders2 of 660 of 150 of 20
Leukocyte count decreasedInvestigations2 of 660 of 150 of 20

Most frequent non-serious adverse event terms

Event termOrgan systemStratum 1 (Not Undergoing Surgery)Stratum 2 (Undergoing Surgery)Stratum 3 (Not Undergoing Surgery)
FatigueGeneral disorders57 of 6611 of 1516 of 20
Platelet count decreasedInvestigations45 of 6612 of 1517 of 20
Hemoglobin decreasedBlood and lymphatic system disorders34 of 6610 of 159 of 20
Leukocyte count decreasedInvestigations26 of 669 of 155 of 20
DiarrheaGastrointestinal disorders21 of 667 of 158 of 20
AnorexiaMetabolism and nutrition disorders18 of 665 of 1510 of 20
NauseaGastrointestinal disorders17 of 668 of 157 of 20
Neutrophil count decreasedInvestigations20 of 666 of 155 of 20
Blood glucose increasedMetabolism and nutrition disorders22 of 661 of 153 of 20
DysgeusiaNervous system disorders15 of 663 of 154 of 20

Serious events with the highest arm-level rate: headache (13.3%), platelet count decreased (10.6%), central nervous system necrosis (6.7%), hydrocephalus (6.7%), disease progression (5.0%).

Do not overextend the safety comparison. Serious-adverse-event counts are safety observations, not efficacy outcomes, and should not be combined with the primary result into a single benefit-risk number.

The registry reports serious adverse events for each of the three groups, with 13 of 66 participants affected in Stratum 1, 3 of 15 in Stratum 2, and 4 of 20 in Stratum 3. It also reports other adverse events affecting 65 of 66, 14 of 15, and 19 of 20 participants, respectively. These are counts of participants affected, not counts of separate events, so a participant could potentially contribute to more than one reported event term.

The listed serious adverse-event terms include headache at 13.3%, platelet count decreased at 10.6%, central nervous system necrosis at 6.7%, hydrocephalus at 6.7%, disease progression at 5.0%, and muscle weakness left-sided at 5.0%. The registry does not give additional context in these figures about severity grading, timing, duration, attribution to treatment, or overlap among terms. Death counts are not reported in the posted safety data; a missing value should not be read as zero.

These descriptive counts do not establish comparative safety. The group sizes differ, the record does not explain the stratum assignment, and no adjusted safety comparison is reported. The counts should be interpreted as the registry’s recorded safety information, not as a basis for individual treatment decisions.

16. What the Result Does, and Does Not, Mean

The result describes the proportion of the analyzed Stratum 1 patients who were alive and progression-free at the six-month assessment, together with uncertainty around that proportion. It is a time-specific outcome in a phase II trial, not a complete measure of long-term survival, tumor control, quality of life, or the experience of every patient. The endpoint depends on the registry’s progression definitions and the assessment of evaluable disease.

The estimates for the three reported strata are not, on their own, proof that one approach is superior to another. Although the registry labels the overall allocation randomized, it does not explain how that allocation relates to the surgery and non-surgery strata in the results. In particular, the posted contrasts cannot establish that a difference is caused by surgery, by the timing of vorinostat, or by vorinostat itself. The recalculated comparison intervals include zero and are broad, leaving considerable uncertainty about the size and direction of any contrast.

The registry record also does not report the original sample-size rationale, detailed handling of missing outcomes, complete statistical analysis plan, or numerical results for all listed secondary outcomes. Those gaps restrict the conclusions that can be drawn from the posted information. The secondary response outcome is a different measure from being alive and progression-free at 6 months, and the unavailable survival and time-to-progression results cannot be inferred.

Accordingly, the data support a descriptive account of the recorded endpoint estimates, not a definitive causal comparison or a claim of clinical benefit or lack of benefit. The uncertainty intervals, group sizes, population definitions, and incompletely documented design all matter. The statistical results do not replace clinical judgment and should not be used as medical advice.

17. Why This Trial Matters Statistically

This trial illustrates why a registry’s design label and its outcome presentation must be considered together. The study is labelled randomized, yet its results are organized into surgery and non-surgery strata without a reported explanation of how those strata relate to randomization. Recognizing that distinction prevents a descriptive difference between groups from being treated automatically as a causal treatment effect.

The primary endpoint also demonstrates how an intuitive proportion can still be uncertain. The 6-month alive-and-progression-free measure is straightforward to describe, but the confidence intervals are broad, especially in the smaller groups. Reporting an estimate alongside its interval makes the limits of the data visible and discourages overinterpretation of a single percentage.

The record provides enough information to understand the primary endpoint definition, the exact binomial interval method, and the analyzed Stratum 1 population. At the same time, it leaves key questions about the statistical plan, missing outcomes, multiplicity, and secondary analyses unresolved. This contrast is instructive: a numerical result can be reproducible from registry summaries while still lacking the documentation needed to assess all aspects of its inferential status.

Finally, the sample-size illustrations show how design targets depend on the effect one wishes to detect and on explicit planning assumptions. They are not evidence about the power achieved by the completed trial and are not the original trial’s stated design justification. Keeping those distinctions clear is central to reading clinical trial statistics responsibly.

18. Limitations

Several limitations are specific to the registry information for this trial. The primary analysis uses 66 Stratum 1 patients who started treatment, after 2 of the 68 enrolled Stratum 1 patients did not receive treatment. The record does not explain whether the primary analysis was intended to include all randomized participants, how the two untreated patients were handled in the trial’s original analysis, or whether any patients lacked six-month outcome data.

The design description is incomplete for interpreting group comparisons. The overall trial is labelled randomized, but the record does not describe the allocation procedure or explain why the results distinguish Stratum 1 and Stratum 3 as not undergoing surgery. It also does not provide a complete treatment description for Stratum 3. Consequently, the estimates should not be treated as a clean randomized comparison of surgery and no surgery, or of different treatment schedules.

The surgery group is small, and its confidence interval is wide. The Stratum 3 estimate is also based on a relatively small group. The resulting uncertainty makes point estimates unstable as summaries of the underlying proportions. The recalculated pairwise comparisons are unadjusted and do not account for potential differences between strata.

Other limitations include the absence of a reported original sample-size justification, statistical analysis plan, multiplicity strategy, missing-data approach, and interim-analysis information. Although survival and time to progression are listed as secondary outcomes, their numerical results are not reported in the registry record. Safety details are limited to participant counts and selected serious adverse-event terms; death counts are not reported. These documentation gaps constrain interpretation without proving that the underlying study did not conduct additional analyses.

19. Related Tutorials

20. Related Statistical Calculators

21. Sources

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Use this trial's endpoint as a starting point for deeper study of effect measures, confidence intervals, and sample-size planning.

22. Record Summary

NCT00238303 is a completed phase II trial of vorinostat in progressive or recurrent glioblastoma, with enrollment of 103 and primary completion in 2008-07. The registry labels the design randomized, unmasked, and parallel. Treatment descriptions include vorinostat alone in a non-surgery stratum and vorinostat around surgery in a surgery stratum.

The primary outcome is the proportion alive and progression-free at 6 months. The analyzed Stratum 1 population comprised 66 patients who started treatment. The registry reports binomial estimates with exact 95% confidence intervals and also presents results for two other strata. Recalculated unadjusted comparisons are imprecise and do not establish differences. Secondary outcome reporting is incomplete, and the statistical plan, missing-data methods, and original sample-size rationale are not reported in the registry record.

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