From One-Step Transitions to Boundary-Value Equations
A random walk on a graph evolves one transition at a time, but many questions concern what happens when it reaches a specified set. For example, starting from a vertex in a domain, what is the probability that the walk exits through one part of the boundary? How long does it take, on average, to reach the boundary?
The transition operator provides a direct way to express these quantities. A function that is unchanged by one application of this operator is called harmonic. Hitting probabilities are harmonic away from the boundary, while expected hitting times satisfy a related equation with an additional constant term.
Harmonic Functions for a Markov Chain
Let \(S\) be a finite or countable state space, and let \(P(x,y)\) be the transition probability from \(x\) to \(y\). For a bounded function \(f:S\to\mathbb{R}\), the transition operator is
The sum is well-defined for bounded \(f\), since the transition probabilities are nonnegative and sum to one. This operator gives the conditional expected value of \(f\) after one step, given the current state.
When the chain is a simple random walk on a locally finite graph, each neighbor of \(x\) is chosen with equal probability. Harmonicity then says that the value at \(x\) is the average of the values at its neighbors. For a general Markov chain, the average is weighted by the transition probabilities.
Often, values are specified on a boundary \(B\subseteq S\), and the question is to find a harmonic function on the remaining domain \(D=S\setminus B\). The specified boundary values encode the event or quantity being studied.
First-Step Equations for Hitting Probabilities
For a set \(B\), define its hitting time by \(\tau_B=\inf\{n\in\mathbb{N}_0:X_n\in B\}\), with the infimum of the empty set taken to be infinity. Let \(A\subseteq B\) be the part of the boundary designated as a successful exit. Define \(h(x)\) to be the probability, starting at \(x\), that the walk first reaches \(B\) in \(A\). If the walk never reaches \(B\), this event does not occur.
This is a local equation: the value at a state depends on the values at states that can follow it in one step. The boundary values distinguish the particular event whose probability is being computed. In particular, if \(A\) and \(C\) are disjoint and \(B=A\cup C\), then \(h\) gives the probability of reaching \(A\) before \(C\).
Worked Example: A Hitting Probability on a Path
Consider the path with states \(0,1,2,3\), where \(0\) and \(3\) are boundary states. From state \(1\), the chain moves to \(0\) with probability \(1/3\) and to \(2\) with probability \(2/3\). From state \(2\), it moves to \(1\) with probability \(1/4\) and to \(3\) with probability \(3/4\). Let \(h(i)\) be the probability of reaching \(3\) before \(0\). The boundary values are \(h(0)=0\) and \(h(3)=1\). The first-step equations are
Substitute the second equation into the first:
Thus \(h(1)=3/5\), and then \(h(2)=\frac14(3/5)+\frac34=9/10\). Checking the original equations gives \(\frac23(9/10)=3/5\) and \(\frac14(3/5)+3/4=9/10\), as required.
First-Step Equations for Expected Hitting Times
Probability is not the only quantity that can be found by conditioning on the first step. Let \(\tau_B\) be the hitting time of a boundary \(B\), and define \(e(x)=\mathbb{E}_x[\tau_B]\), allowing the value infinity. At a boundary state the remaining time is zero. At a state outside the boundary, one step is taken before the chain can continue.
The constant \(1\) matters: unlike a hitting probability, an expected time is not harmonic. It solves an inhomogeneous equation, often written \(e=1+Pe\) on the interior. One should not infer from a solution to this equation alone that the expected time is finite; finiteness needs justification.
Worked Example: Expected Exit Time from a Path
Use the path chain from the previous example, and let \(e(i)\) be the expected number of steps to hit either \(0\) or \(3\). The boundary values are \(e(0)=e(3)=0\). At the two interior states,
Substituting the second equation into the first gives $$ e(1)=1+\frac{2}{3}\left(1+\frac14e(1)\right) =\frac53+\frac16e(1), $$ so \(e(1)=2\). Consequently \(e(2)=1+\frac14(2)=3/2\). Direct substitution verifies \(1+\frac23(3/2)=2\) and \(1+\frac14(2)=3/2\). These are finite expectations because from either interior state there is a positive probability of exiting within a bounded number of steps; repeated trials make the probability of remaining inside decay geometrically.
A Tree Example: Hitting a Specified Leaf
On a tree, the equations reflect the degree of each vertex. Consider a tree with root \(r\), children \(u\) and \(v\), and leaves \(x,y,z\), where \(u\) is adjacent to \(r,x,y\), and \(v\) is adjacent to \(r,z\). Run simple random walk and stop when it first reaches a leaf. Let \(h\) be the probability of stopping at \(x\). The boundary values are \(h(x)=1\), \(h(y)=h(z)=0\). Each interior value is the average over neighboring vertices, so $$ h(u)=\frac{h(r)+1+0}{3},\qquad h(v)=\frac{h(r)+0}{2},\qquad h(r)=\frac{h(u)+h(v)}{2}. $$
Substitution into the root equation gives $$ h(r)=\frac12\left(\frac{h(r)+1}{3}+\frac{h(r)}{2}\right), $$ hence \(h(r)=2/7\). It follows that \(h(u)=3/7\) and \(h(v)=1/7\). Checking each equation: \((2/7+1)/3=3/7\), \((2/7)/2=1/7\), and \((3/7+1/7)/2=2/7\). Thus the probability of stopping at \(x\) from the root is \(2/7\).
Finite Domains: Finiteness and Uniqueness
On a finite state space, a useful condition guarantees that the boundary is reached in finite expected time. Suppose that from every state in \(D=S\setminus B\), there is a path to \(B\) whose transitions all have positive probability. Since \(D\) is finite, one can choose one such path from each state. The path lengths have a finite maximum \(L\), and their probabilities have a positive minimum \(\eta\). Thus, from any interior state, the probability of reaching \(B\) within \(L\) steps is at least \(\eta\). Applying the Markov property in successive blocks gives $$ \mathbb{P}_x(\tau_B>kL)\leq (1-\eta)^k,\qquad k\in\mathbb{N}_0. $$ This geometric bound implies \(\mathbb{E}_x[\tau_B]<\infty\).
This result ensures uniqueness, not just a method for solving the equations. The hitting probability itself supplies a solution for its boundary data. The expected exit time supplies a solution to the corresponding inhomogeneous equation when the stated finiteness condition holds.
Worked Example: Expected Exit Time in a Finite Domain
Consider two interior states \(a,b\) and boundary states \(g,d\). From \(a\), the chain moves to \(g\) with probability \(1/2\) and to \(b\) with probability \(1/2\). From \(b\), it moves to \(a,g,d\), each with probability \(1/3\). Let \(t(a)\) and \(t(b)\) be the expected times to reach \(\{g,d\}\). The equations are
Substitution yields \(t(a)=1+\frac12(1+\frac13t(a))=\frac32+\frac16t(a)\), so \(t(a)=9/5\). Then \(t(b)=1+\frac13(9/5)=8/5\). Checking gives \(1+\frac12(8/5)=9/5\) and \(1+\frac13(9/5)=8/5\). The boundary values are zero. Exit is almost sure with finite expectation: from either interior state there is a positive-probability route to the boundary in at most two steps, so the finite-domain bound applies.
Why the Equations Need Their Conditions
First-step conditioning is simple, but it does not by itself guarantee that a proposed system of equations uniquely determines the desired quantity. On an infinite domain, a boundary may never be reached, and different harmonic functions can share the same boundary values. Even when a first-step equation is valid, one must distinguish the probabilistically defined solution from any other algebraic solution unless suitable conditions ensure uniqueness.
For finite domains, checking that every interior state has a positive-probability route to the boundary is a practical safeguard. It gives finite expected exit time and ensures uniqueness for the harmonic boundary problem. The equations then translate a probabilistic question into a finite system of linear equations, while the probabilistic definitions tell us which solution the system represents.
Check Your Understanding
Try answering these questions by writing the relevant first-step equations before calculating.
- What does it mean for a function to be harmonic on a subset of a Markov chain's state space?
- How do the boundary values encode the probability of reaching one part of a boundary before another?
- Why does the expected hitting-time equation contain an added \(1\), while the hitting-probability equation does not?
- For the tree example, what equation would change if the walk chose neighbors with unequal transition probabilities?
- Why does a positive-probability path from every state in a finite domain to its boundary imply finite expected exit time?