Tutorials › Stochastic Processes › An Exact Three-State Diagonalization Workshop

Chapman-Kolmogorov Equations and n-Step Transitions · Tutorial 120 of 994

An Exact Three-State Diagonalization Workshop

Learn to diagonalize a three-state transition matrix exactly and use its eigenvalues and eigenvectors to compute and check n-step probabilities.

Intermediate 10 min read

What You'll Learn

  • Check that a three-state matrix is row-stochastic before using it as a transition matrix.
  • Find a full set of right eigenvectors and form the diagonalization.
  • Use the diagonalization to derive an exact formula for the matrix powers.
  • Compute selected n-step transition probabilities using exact fractions.
  • Verify answers against direct small-step calculations and row sums.
  • Recognize why the formula for positive powers must be handled separately at time zero.

A Three-State Chain for Exact Diagonalization

Diagonalization is especially useful when the question asks for transition probabilities after many steps. Instead of multiplying the transition matrix repeatedly, we express it in an eigenvector basis, raise its diagonal form to the desired power, and transform back. This workshop carries out the calculation for one chain from the stochasticity check through to exact entries of \(P^n\).

Let \((\Omega,\mathcal{F},\mathbb{P})\) be a probability space, and let \((X_n)_{n\ge0}\) be a discrete-time Markov chain with state space \(S=\{1,2,3\}\) and transition matrix \(P=(p_{ij})\). Its filtration is \(\mathcal{F}_n=\sigma(X_0,\ldots,X_n)\). The entry \(p_{ij}^{(n)}\) of \(P^n\) is the probability of being in state \(j\) after \(n\) steps when the chain starts in state \(i\). Distributions are row vectors, so an initial distribution \(\mu_0\) evolves by \(\mu_n=\mu_0P^n\).

Consider the matrix

$$ P= \begin{bmatrix} \tfrac12&\tfrac12&0\\ \tfrac14&\tfrac12&\tfrac14\\ 0&\tfrac12&\tfrac12 \end{bmatrix}. $$

Before calculating powers, check the rows: \(\tfrac12+\tfrac12+0=1\), \(\tfrac14+\tfrac12+\tfrac14=1\), and \(0+\tfrac12+\tfrac12=1\). Every entry is nonnegative, so \(P\) is row-stochastic and is a valid transition matrix.

Definition: A diagonalization of a square matrix \(P\) is a factorization \(P=VDV^{-1}\), where \(V\) is invertible and \(D\) is diagonal. The columns of \(V\) are right eigenvectors of \(P\), and the corresponding diagonal entries of \(D\) are their eigenvalues. For an integer \(n\ge0\), this gives \(P^n=VD^nV^{-1}\).
Proposition: If \(v_1,\ldots,v_m\) are linearly independent right eigenvectors of an \(m\times m\) matrix \(P\), with \(Pv_r=\lambda_rv_r\), then \(P=VDV^{-1}\), where \(V\) has columns \(v_r\) and \(D\) has diagonal entries \(\lambda_r\). Consequently, \(P^n=VD^nV^{-1}\) for every integer \(n\ge0\).

Proof. Linear independence of the \(m\) columns makes \(V\) invertible. The eigenvector equations, placed side by side, say \(PV=VD\). Multiplying on the right by \(V^{-1}\) gives \(P=VDV^{-1}\). For \(n\ge1\), multiplying this identity by itself \(n\) times and using \(V^{-1}V=I\) gives \(P^n=VD^nV^{-1}\). For \(n=0\), both sides equal the identity matrix, since \(P^0=I\) and \(D^0=I\). \(\square\)

Find the Eigenvectors and Assemble the Diagonalization

For the eigenvalue \(1\), the column vector \(v_1=(1,1,1)^{\mathsf T}\) works: multiplying by \(P\) gives \((1,1,1)^{\mathsf T}\). This reflects the fact that the rows sum to one. For a second eigenvector, direct multiplication gives \(P(1,0,-1)^{\mathsf T}=(\tfrac12,0,-\tfrac12)^{\mathsf T}\), so \(v_2=(1,0,-1)^{\mathsf T}\) has eigenvalue \(\tfrac12\). Finally, \(P(1,-1,1)^{\mathsf T}=(0,0,0)^{\mathsf T}\), so \(v_3=(1,-1,1)^{\mathsf T}\) has eigenvalue \(0\).

Use these vectors as the columns of \(V\). The eigenvectors are linearly independent, as can be checked using the inverse displayed below; thus they provide a full eigenvector basis.

$$ V= \begin{bmatrix} 1&1&1\\ 1&0&-1\\ 1&-1&1 \end{bmatrix}, \qquad D= \begin{bmatrix} 1&0&0\\ 0&\tfrac12&0\\ 0&0&0 \end{bmatrix}, \qquad V^{-1}= \begin{bmatrix} \tfrac14&\tfrac12&\tfrac14\\ \tfrac12&0&-\tfrac12\\ \tfrac14&-\tfrac12&\tfrac14 \end{bmatrix}. $$

For example, the first row of \(V^{-1}\) multiplied by the first column of \(V\) gives \(\tfrac14+\tfrac12+\tfrac14=1\), while its products with the second and third columns give \(\tfrac14-\tfrac14=0\) and \(\tfrac14-\tfrac12+\tfrac14=0\). The other rows give the other rows of the identity by the same direct multiplication. The eigenvector equations therefore give \(PV=VD\), and the inverse yields \(P=VDV^{-1}\).

Worked Example: Diagonalize the Matrix

Verify the eigenvector calculations and the diagonalization for the matrix in this workshop.

For \(v_1=(1,1,1)^{\mathsf T}\), the three entries of \(Pv_1\) are \(\tfrac12+\tfrac12+0=1\), \(\tfrac14+\tfrac12+\tfrac14=1\), and \(0+\tfrac12+\tfrac12=1\). Thus \(Pv_1=v_1\).

For \(v_2=(1,0,-1)^{\mathsf T}\), the entries of \(Pv_2\) are \(\tfrac12+0+0=\tfrac12\), \(\tfrac14+0-\tfrac14=0\), and \(0+0-\tfrac12=-\tfrac12\). Hence \(Pv_2=\tfrac12v_2\). For \(v_3=(1,-1,1)^{\mathsf T}\), the entries are \(\tfrac12-\tfrac12+0=0\), \(\tfrac14-\tfrac12+\tfrac14=0\), and \(0-\tfrac12+\tfrac12=0\), so \(Pv_3=0v_3\).

In matrix form these three checks give \(PV=VD\). Since the displayed \(V^{-1}\) satisfies \(V^{-1}V=I\), multiplying by that inverse gives \(P=VDV^{-1}\), as required.

An Exact Formula for the Powers

For \(n\ge1\), the diagonal power is \(D^n=\operatorname{diag}(1,2^{-n},0)\). The zero eigenvalue contributes zero at every positive power. Multiplying \(VD^nV^{-1}\) gives the formula below. The case \(n=0\) is different: \(D^0=I\), including a \(1\) in the position corresponding to the zero eigenvalue.

Theorem: For the transition matrix in this workshop and every integer \(n\ge1\),
$$ P^n= \begin{bmatrix} \tfrac14+2^{-(n+1)}&\tfrac12&\tfrac14-2^{-(n+1)}\\ \tfrac14&\tfrac12&\tfrac14\\ \tfrac14-2^{-(n+1)}&\tfrac12&\tfrac14+2^{-(n+1)} \end{bmatrix}. $$

Proof. The three eigenvectors above are linearly independent because \(V^{-1}V=I\). The proposition therefore gives \(P^n=VD^nV^{-1}\). For \(n\ge1\), \(D^n=\operatorname{diag}(1,2^{-n},0)\). Multiplication gives the contribution from the eigenvalue \(1\) as a matrix whose every row is \((\tfrac14,\tfrac12,\tfrac14)\), and the contribution from the eigenvalue \(\tfrac12\) as \(2^{-n}\) times \(\begin{bmatrix}\tfrac12&0&-\tfrac12\\0&0&0\\-\tfrac12&0&\tfrac12\end{bmatrix}\). The eigenvalue \(0\) contributes nothing for \(n\ge1\). Adding the two displayed contributions gives the stated entries, since \(2^{-n}\tfrac12=2^{-(n+1)}\). \(\square\)

The expression also passes basic probability checks. Each row sums to \(1\): the first and third have cancelling terms \(+2^{-(n+1)}\) and \(-2^{-(n+1)}\), while the middle row sums to \(\tfrac14+\tfrac12+\tfrac14=1\). For nonnegativity, \(n\ge1\) implies \(2^{-(n+1)}\le\tfrac14\), so even the smallest entries, \(\tfrac14-2^{-(n+1)}\), are nonnegative.

Worked Example: Compute the Second-Step Matrix

Use the formula to find \(P^2\), then verify it by direct multiplication.

Substituting \(n=2\) gives \(2^{-(n+1)}=2^{-3}=\tfrac18\). Thus the first row is \((\tfrac14+\tfrac18,\tfrac12,\tfrac14-\tfrac18)=(\tfrac38,\tfrac12,\tfrac18)\); the second is \((\tfrac14,\tfrac12,\tfrac14)\); and the third is \((\tfrac18,\tfrac12,\tfrac38)\).

$$ P^2= \begin{bmatrix} \tfrac38&\tfrac12&\tfrac18\\ \tfrac14&\tfrac12&\tfrac14\\ \tfrac18&\tfrac12&\tfrac38 \end{bmatrix}. $$

For a direct check, the first row of \(P^2\) is \(\tfrac12\) times the first row of \(P\) plus \(\tfrac12\) times its second row, giving \((\tfrac14+\tfrac18,\tfrac14+\tfrac14,0+\tfrac18)=(\tfrac38,\tfrac12,\tfrac18)\). The second row is \(\tfrac14\) times the first row, \(\tfrac12\) times the second, and \(\tfrac14\) times the third: its entries are \(\tfrac18+0+\tfrac18=\tfrac14\), \(\tfrac18+\tfrac14+\tfrac18=\tfrac12\), and \(0+\tfrac18+\tfrac18=\tfrac14\). The third row is \(\tfrac12\) times the second row plus \(\tfrac12\) times the third, giving \((\tfrac18,\tfrac12,\tfrac38)\). Each resulting row sums to \(1\): \(\tfrac38+\tfrac12+\tfrac18=1\), \(\tfrac14+\tfrac12+\tfrac14=1\), and \(\tfrac18+\tfrac12+\tfrac38=1\).

Worked Example: A Five-Step Transition Probability

Find the probability of being in state \(3\) after five steps, starting in state \(1\). Here \(n=5\), so the correction term is \(2^{-(5+1)}=2^{-6}=\tfrac1{64}\). The formula gives

$$ p_{13}^{(5)}=\tfrac14-\tfrac1{64}=\tfrac{16}{64}-\tfrac1{64}=\tfrac{15}{64}. $$

As an additional probability check, the first row of \(P^5\) is \((\tfrac{17}{64},\tfrac12,\tfrac{15}{64})\): its first entry is \(\tfrac14+\tfrac1{64}=\tfrac{17}{64}\), and its second is \(\tfrac12=\tfrac{32}{64}\). The entries sum to \(\tfrac{17+32+15}{64}=\tfrac{64}{64}=1\), and each is nonnegative.

Propagate an Initial Distribution

Once the matrix power is known, the distribution after \(n\) steps follows by multiplying the initial row vector by \(P^n\). This uses the row-vector convention: the \(j\)th entry of \(\mu_0P^n\) is \(\sum_i\mu_0(i)p_{ij}^{(n)}\), the total probability of reaching \(j\) from all possible starting states.

Worked Example: Start in State 1 and Take Three Steps

Suppose \(X_0=1\), so \(\mu_0=(1,0,0)\). For \(n=3\), the correction term is \(2^{-(3+1)}=2^{-4}=\tfrac1{16}\). Multiplication by the first row of \(P^3\) gives

$$ \mu_3=\mu_0P^3= \left(\tfrac14+\tfrac1{16},\tfrac12,\tfrac14-\tfrac1{16}\right) =\left(\tfrac5{16},\tfrac12,\tfrac3{16}\right). $$

The entries sum to \(\tfrac5{16}+\tfrac8{16}+\tfrac3{16}=\tfrac{16}{16}=1\). As a direct small-step check, \(\mu_1=(\tfrac12,\tfrac12,0)\). Multiplying by \(P\) once more gives \(\mu_2=(\tfrac38,\tfrac12,\tfrac18)\). A further multiplication gives \(\mu_3\): its entries are \(\tfrac38\cdot\tfrac12+\tfrac12\cdot\tfrac14=\tfrac3{16}+\tfrac2{16}=\tfrac5{16}\), \(\tfrac38\cdot\tfrac12+\tfrac12\cdot\tfrac12+\tfrac18\cdot\tfrac12=\tfrac3{16}+\tfrac4{16}+\tfrac1{16}=\tfrac12\), and \(\tfrac38\cdot0+\tfrac12\cdot\tfrac14+\tfrac18\cdot\tfrac12=\tfrac18+\tfrac1{16}=\tfrac3{16}\). This agrees with the diagonalization formula.

Common Pitfall: Forgetting the Zero-Eigenvalue Term at Time Zero

The formula for \(P^n\) above is stated only for \(n\ge1\). Substituting \(n=0\) into it would give the matrix with every row \((\tfrac14+\tfrac12,\tfrac12,\tfrac14-\tfrac12)=(\tfrac34,\tfrac12,-\tfrac14)\). This is not \(P^0=I\): it even has a negative entry. The error is treating the zero-eigenvalue contribution as zero at \(n=0\). In fact, \(D^0=I\), so \(0^0\) need not be evaluated as a scalar; the whole diagonal matrix at exponent zero is the identity. The correct calculation is \(P^0=VD^0V^{-1}=VIV^{-1}=I\).

Diagonalization gives exact powers efficiently, but the result should still be checked: confirm the original matrix is stochastic, use the correct row-vector convention for distributions, keep track of whether the exponent is zero or positive, and verify that the calculated probability rows sum to one.

Check Your Understanding

Use the diagonalization and formula in this tutorial, and show the arithmetic in your answers.

  1. Verify directly that \((1,-1,1)^{\mathsf T}\) is an eigenvector with eigenvalue zero.
  2. Use the formula to find the entry \(p_{31}^{(4)}\). Check that it is nonnegative.
  3. Write the first row of \(P^3\) and verify that its entries sum to one.
  4. If the initial distribution is \((0,1,0)\), find the distribution after two steps.
  5. Explain why the positive-power formula must not be used at \(n=0\), and state the correct value of \(P^0\).