From Transition Probabilities to Instantaneous Rates
A transition probability \(p_{ij}(h)\) records the chance of being in state \(j\) after a time interval of length \(h\), given that the chain started in state \(i\). For small \(h\), a move from \(i\) to a different state \(j\) is usually unlikely, and its probability is approximately a rate multiplied by \(h\). The generator records these first-order rates. Recovering it from the transition semigroup makes precise how a family of finite-time transition probabilities determines instantaneous behavior.
Let \((\Omega,\mathcal{F},\mathbb{P})\) be a probability space, and let \((X_t)_{t\ge0}\) be a time-homogeneous continuous-time Markov chain on a finite state space \(S\). Write \(P(t)=(p_{ij}(t))\) for its transition matrix, where \(p_{ij}(t)=\mathbb{P}(X_{s+t}=j\mid X_s=i)\). Each \(P(t)\) is row-stochastic, and \(P(0)=I\). The semigroup property is \(P(s+t)=P(s)P(t)\).
The off-diagonal entry is a small-time transition rate: if \(q_{ij}\) exists, then \(p_{ij}(h)=q_{ij}h+o(h)\) as \(h\downarrow0\). Here \(o(h)\) denotes a quantity whose ratio to \(h\) tends to zero. The diagonal entry is different because \(p_{ii}(h)\) is close to \(1\), not to \(0\). It measures the first-order decrease in the probability of still being in \(i\).
What the Derivatives Imply
Proof. Fix \(i\). If \(j\ne i\), then \(p_{ij}(h)\ge0\) for every \(h>0\), so its limit after division by \(h\) is nonnegative: \(q_{ij}\ge0\). Because \(S\) is finite, we can differentiate the finite row-sum identity \(\sum_{j\in S}p_{ij}(h)=1\) at \(h=0\) from the right. The derivative of the constant on the right is zero, so \(\sum_{j\in S}q_{ij}=0\). Rearranging gives \(q_{ii}=-\sum_{j\ne i}q_{ij}\). Finally, the definition of each right derivative gives \(p_{ij}(h)=\mathbf{1}_{\{i=j\}}+h q_{ij}+o(h)\), including the diagonal case. \(\square\)
Finiteness matters in the row-sum argument: it permits differentiation of a finite sum. On a countable state space, coordinatewise derivatives alone do not justify interchanging a derivative and an infinite sum. A row-sum conclusion there needs conditions that justify that interchange. In the finite-state setting, the theorem shows that a valid generator has nonnegative off-diagonal entries and diagonal entries determined by the row-sum constraint.
The same derivatives have a direct interpretation through holding times and jump destinations. Suppose that, on leaving state \(i\), the chain waits an exponential time with rate \(q_i\ge0\), then jumps to a different state \(j\) with probability \(r_{ij}\), where \(\sum_{j\ne i}r_{ij}=1\) when \(q_i>0\). If \(q_i=0\), the state is absorbing. For a finite-state chain with these rates, the generator entries are \(q_{ij}=q_i r_{ij}\) for \(j\ne i\), and \(q_{ii}=-q_i\).
Proof. Let \(\Lambda=\max_{k\in S}q_k\), which is finite. Starting at \(i\), the probability of a first jump by time \(h\) is \(1-e^{-q_i h}\le q_i h\le\Lambda h\). Conditional on the time and destination of that first jump, the chance of a further jump before time \(h\) is at most \(\Lambda h\). Therefore the probability of at least two jumps by time \(h\) is at most \(\Lambda^2h^2\), which is \(o(h)\). For \(j\ne i\), the probability of exactly one jump, from \(i\) to \(j\), is \(\int_0^h q_i e^{-q_i s}r_{ij}e^{-q_j(h-s)}\,ds\). Dividing by \(h\) and letting \(h\downarrow0\) gives \(q_i r_{ij}\), since the exponential factors tend to \(1\) uniformly for \(0\le s\le h\). Events with two or more jumps contribute at most \(\Lambda^2h^2=o(h)\), so \(p_{ij}(h)/h\to q_i r_{ij}\). For the diagonal, the probability of no jump is \(e^{-q_i h}=1-q_i h+o(h)\). A path that leaves \(i\) and returns by time \(h\) must make at least two jumps, an event of probability \(o(h)\). Hence \((p_{ii}(h)-1)/h\to-q_i\). If \(q_i=0\), the chain stays at \(i\), and these same limits give zero for every entry in its row. \(\square\)
Thus, when \(q_i>0\), the total rate of leaving \(i\) is \(\sum_{j\ne i}q_{ij}=q_i\), and the destination probabilities are \(r_{ij}=q_{ij}/q_i\). The division is meaningful only when \(q_i>0\); for an absorbing state there is no next jump destination to describe.
Worked Example: Recovering a Two-State Generator
Consider the transition semigroup on \(S=\{1,2\}\): \(P(t)=\begin{bmatrix}\tfrac35+\tfrac25e^{-5t}&\tfrac25(1-e^{-5t})\\[2pt]\tfrac35(1-e^{-5t})&\tfrac25+\tfrac35e^{-5t}\end{bmatrix}\). For every \(t\ge0\), the first row sums to \(\tfrac35+\tfrac25e^{-5t}+\tfrac25-\tfrac25e^{-5t}=1\), and the second sums to \(\tfrac35-\tfrac35e^{-5t}+\tfrac25+\tfrac35e^{-5t}=1\). Recover \(Q\) by taking right derivatives at zero.
For the first off-diagonal entry, \(\lim_{h\downarrow0}p_{12}(h)/h=\tfrac25\lim_{h\downarrow0}(1-e^{-5h})/h=\tfrac25\cdot5=2\). For the other, \(\lim_{h\downarrow0}p_{21}(h)/h=\tfrac35\cdot5=3\). The diagonal limits are \(\lim_{h\downarrow0}\tfrac25(e^{-5h}-1)/h=\tfrac25(-5)=-2\) and \(\lim_{h\downarrow0}\tfrac35(e^{-5h}-1)/h=\tfrac35(-5)=-3\). Therefore \(Q=\begin{bmatrix}-2&2\\3&-3\end{bmatrix}\).
Check: The first row sums to \(-2+2=0\), and the second to \(3-3=0\). The off-diagonal rates give exit rates \(2\) from state \(1\) and \(3\) from state \(2\), as the diagonal entries require.
Worked Example: A Two-Stage Pure-Birth Chain
Let \(S=\{1,2,3\}\), where state \(1\) moves to \(2\) at rate \(2\), state \(2\) moves to \(3\) at rate \(3\), and state \(3\) is absorbing. The transition probabilities are \(p_{11}(t)=e^{-2t}\), \(p_{12}(t)=2(e^{-2t}-e^{-3t})\), \(p_{13}(t)=1-3e^{-2t}+2e^{-3t}\); \(p_{22}(t)=e^{-3t}\), \(p_{23}(t)=1-e^{-3t}\), and \(p_{33}(t)=1\), with all other entries zero.
Before differentiating, check the rows. Row 1 sums to \(e^{-2t}+2e^{-2t}-2e^{-3t}+1-3e^{-2t}+2e^{-3t}=1\). Row 2 sums to \(e^{-3t}+1-e^{-3t}=1\), and row 3 sums to \(1\). For row 1, \(q_{12}=\lim_{h\downarrow0}2(e^{-2h}-e^{-3h})/h=2((-2)-(-3))=2\), while \(q_{13}=\lim_{h\downarrow0}(1-3e^{-2h}+2e^{-3h})/h=0-3(-2)+2(-3)=0\). Also \(q_{11}=-2\). For row 2, \(q_{23}=3\) and \(q_{22}=-3\); state 3 has \(q_{33}=0\). Hence \(Q=\begin{bmatrix}-2&2&0\\0&-3&3\\0&0&0\end{bmatrix}\).
Check: The generator row sums are \(-2+2+0=0\), \(0-3+3=0\), and \(0+0+0=0\). In particular, \(p_{13}(h)\) has zero first derivative at zero: its first-order probability of reaching state 3 is zero, because reaching 3 from 1 requires two jumps.
Worked Example: From Holding Rates to Generator Entries
Suppose that from state \(1\) the chain exits at rate \(6/5\), jumping to state \(2\) with probability \(1/3\) and to state \(3\) with probability \(2/3\). From state \(2\) it exits at rate \(3/2\) and jumps to state \(1\) with probability \(1\); state \(3\) is absorbing. Compute the generator from the small-time rates.
From state \(1\), the off-diagonal rates are \(q_{12}=(6/5)(1/3)=2/5\) and \(q_{13}=(6/5)(2/3)=4/5\), so \(q_{11}=-(2/5+4/5)=-6/5\). From state \(2\), \(q_{21}=(3/2)(1)=3/2\), \(q_{22}=-3/2\), and \(q_{23}=0\). The absorbing state has a zero row. Thus \(Q=\begin{bmatrix}-6/5&2/5&4/5\\3/2&-3/2&0\\0&0&0\end{bmatrix}\).
Check: Its row sums are \(-6/5+2/5+4/5=0\), \(3/2-3/2+0=0\), and \(0\). The first row’s off-diagonal rates sum to \(6/5\), and dividing them by \(6/5\) recovers destination probabilities \(1/3\) and \(2/3\); the second row’s only exit rate is \(3/2\).
A Common Mistake and Its Correction
A frequent error is to divide the diagonal transition probability itself by \(h\). In the two-state example, this would give \(p_{11}(h)/h=e^{-2h}/h\), which diverges as \(h\downarrow0\); it is not the diagonal generator entry. The chain is in state \(1\) with probability close to \(1\) at a very short time, so the relevant quantity is the change from \(1\): \((p_{11}(h)-1)/h=(e^{-2h}-1)/h\to-2\). For off-diagonal entries, by contrast, \(p_{ij}(0)=0\), so no subtraction is needed.
The derivative definition is useful because it separates immediate behavior from later transitions. An off-diagonal \(q_{ij}\) measures the first-order chance of moving from \(i\) to \(j\), while \(q_{ii}\) balances the total rate of leaving \(i\). These are local, time-zero quantities; a transition probability \(p_{ij}(t)\) for a nonzero \(t\) can include paths with several jumps and should not be read as a single jump rate.
Check Your Understanding
Use the derivative definition and check row constraints in each problem.
- If \(p_{12}(h)=7h+o(h)\) for two distinct states, what is \(q_{12}\)?
- If a finite-state generator row has off-diagonal entries \(q_{i2}=1/4\) and \(q_{i3}=3/4\), what must its diagonal entry be?
- For \(p_{ii}(h)=e^{-4h}\), compute \(q_{ii}\). Why is \(p_{ii}(h)/h\) not the appropriate limit?
- A state has exit rate \(5\) and next-destination probabilities \(2/5\) and \(3/5\). What are its two off-diagonal generator entries and its diagonal entry?
- Why does the two-stage example have \(q_{13}=0\), even though \(p_{13}(t)\) can be positive for \(t>0\)?