Why a Known Factor Can Be Pulled Out
A conditional expectation averages a random variable while holding the conditioning information fixed. If a factor is already determined by that information, it has the same value throughout each conditional average. It can therefore multiply the average rather than remain inside it. The phrase “known given the conditioning information” has a precise meaning: the factor must be measurable with respect to the information on which we condition.
This principle is called the pull-out property. Its familiar discrete form says that if we condition on a discrete random variable \(Z\), then a function of \(Z\) can be taken outside the conditional expectation. The general result applies to any sigma-algebra and, with an integrability condition, even to an unbounded factor.
The defining averaging condition is the main tool in the proof. Informally, it says that averaging \(X\) over any event described by the conditioning information gives the same result as averaging its conditional expectation over that event. The pull-out property shows how this characterization behaves when we multiply by a factor already described by \(\mathcal G\).
The Pull-Out Theorem
Here “finite-valued” means that \(Y\) is real-valued almost surely; it does not mean that it takes only finitely many distinct values. The integrability assumptions ensure that both sides define integrable random variables. To prove the result carefully, we first establish the averaging identity for a bounded \(\mathcal G\)-measurable multiplier.
Proof of the lemma. First take \(H\) to be a simple random variable, \(H=\sum_{j=1}^m c_j 1_{A_j}\), where \(A_j\in\mathcal G\) and the \(c_j\) are real constants. By the defining averaging condition and linearity,
For bounded measurable \(H\), choose simple \(\mathcal G\)-measurable \(H_k\) such that \(H_k\to H\) pointwise and \(|H_k|\leq C\) for a finite constant \(C\). The dominated convergence theorem applies on the left, since \(|H_k U|\leq C|U|\). It applies on the right because \(E[U\mid\mathcal G]\) is integrable and \(|H_k E[U\mid\mathcal G]|\leq C|E[U\mid\mathcal G]|\). Taking limits proves the lemma. \(\square\)
We now prove the theorem, including the case where \(Y\) is unbounded. Write \(M=E[X\mid\mathcal G]\), and define \(Y_n=\max(-n,\min(Y,n))\). Each \(Y_n\) is bounded and \(\mathcal G\)-measurable. The lemma, applied to \(U=|X|\) and \(H=\min(|Y|,n)\), gives
Both sides increase as \(n\) increases. By the monotone convergence theorem, their limits are equal, so
The inequality \(|M|\leq E[|X|\mid\mathcal G]\) holds almost surely by the standard conditional-expectation bound. Consequently, \(E[|YM|]\leq E[|Y|E[|X|\mid\mathcal G]]<\infty\). Thus \(YM\) is integrable, as is \(YX\) by assumption.
For any \(A\in\mathcal G\), the random variable \(1_A Y_n\) is bounded and \(\mathcal G\)-measurable. Applying the lemma with \(U=X\) and \(H=1_A Y_n\) yields \(E[1_A Y_n X]=E[1_A Y_n M]\). As \(n\) tends to infinity, \(Y_n\to Y\) pointwise and \(|Y_n|\leq |Y|\). The dominated convergence theorem applies to both sides: the dominating variables are \(1_A|YX|\) and \(1_A|YM|\), respectively, both integrable. Hence
Since \(YM\) is \(\mathcal G\)-measurable and integrable, this is exactly the defining characterization of \(E[YX\mid\mathcal G]\). Therefore \(E[YX\mid\mathcal G]=YM\) almost surely. \(\square\)
Discrete Conditioning: A Factor That Is a Function of the Conditioning Variable
Suppose \(Z\) is discrete and we condition on \(Z\). A function \(g(Z)\) is determined by the observed value of \(Z\), so it is measurable with respect to the information generated by \(Z\). When \(X\) and \(g(Z)X\) are integrable, the theorem gives
At a particular value \(z\) with \(P(Z=z)>0\), this is the ordinary conditional-mean identity \(E[g(z)X\mid Z=z]=g(z)E[X\mid Z=z]\): within that conditional average, \(g(z)\) is a constant. Values \(z\) with probability zero do not determine a conditional expectation and need not be assigned a particular conditional mean.
Worked Example: Pulling Out a Function of a Discrete Variable
Let \(Z\) take values \(0\) and \(1\), each with probability \(1/2\). Given \(Z=0\), let \(X\) equal \(2\) or \(6\), each with conditional probability \(1/2\). Given \(Z=1\), let \(X\) equal \(1\) or \(5\), each with conditional probability \(1/2\). Find \(E[(Z+2)X\mid Z]\).
First calculate the conditional mean of \(X\) for each value of \(Z\):
The factor \(Z+2\) is \(2\) when \(Z=0\) and \(3\) when \(Z=1\). Pull it outside the conditional expectation:
Thus the conditional expectation is the random variable equal to \(8\) on \(\{Z=0\}\) and \(9\) on \(\{Z=1\}\). Direct checking gives \((2\cdot2+2\cdot6)/2=8\) in the first case and \((3\cdot1+3\cdot5)/2=9\) in the second.
Finite Partitions: The Same Identity on Each Atom
A finite partition is a collection of disjoint events \(A_1,\ldots,A_m\) whose union is the entire sample space. Conditioning on the partition means knowing which event \(A_j\) occurred. A random variable \(Y\) is measurable with respect to this information when it is constant on each partition event, apart from possible null sets. On each event, pulling out \(Y\) is simply pulling out a numerical constant.
Worked Example: A Piecewise-Constant Factor on a Partition
Let \(A\) and \(B\) partition the sample space, with \(P(A)=0.4\) and \(P(B)=0.6\). Suppose \(E[X\mid A]=5\) and \(E[X\mid B]=2\). Define \(Y=3\) on \(A\) and \(Y=-2\) on \(B\). Find \(E[YX\mid \{A,B\}]\).
On \(A\), \(Y\) is the constant \(3\), so the conditional mean is \(3E[X\mid A]=3(5)=15\). On \(B\), \(Y\) is the constant \(-2\), so the conditional mean is \((-2)E[X\mid B]=(-2)(2)=-4\). Therefore
As a check, the unconditional mean of this conditional expectation is \(0.4(15)+0.6(-4)=6-2.4=3.6\). The unconditional mean of \(YX\) agrees: \(E[YX]=0.4(3)(5)+0.6(-2)(2)=6-2.4=3.6\). This agreement checks the averages over the two partition events.
The finite-partition calculation extends to any \(\mathcal G\)-measurable factor, not just one that is constant on a finite number of events. In the general setting, measurability plays the role of “constant on each conditioning case.” The proof above replaces a finite list of cases with bounded approximations and the defining averaging property.
Unbounded Factors and the Integrability Check
Boundedness of \(Y\) is a convenient sufficient condition, but it is not necessary. For an unbounded factor, the theorem requires \(XY\) to be integrable. The proof also establishes that \(Y E[X\mid\mathcal G]\) is integrable under these assumptions. Checking this condition matters: an identity involving conditional expectations of nonintegrable variables is not justified by the pull-out property.
Worked Example: An Unbounded Discrete Factor
Let \(Z\) have the geometric distribution \(P(Z=k)=2^{-k}\) for \(k=1,2,\ldots\). Given \(Z=k\), let \(X\) be Bernoulli with success probability \(1/(k+1)\). Take \(Y=Z\), which is unbounded but determined by the conditioning information.
Since \(X\) is an indicator, \(E[X\mid Z=k]=1/(k+1)\). Also,
Thus \(ZX\) is integrable. The pull-out property gives
The conditional expectation is bounded by \(1\), so it is integrable as well. This example shows why the product-integrability condition allows factors beyond bounded functions of the conditioning variable.
Common Mistake: Pulling Out a Factor That Is Not Known
A factor cannot be pulled out merely because it is a random variable in the same model, or because its unconditional value is known. It must be determined by the conditioning information. For example, if \(X\) and \(Y\) are independent Bernoulli random variables with success probability \(1/2\), and we condition on \(X\), then \(Y\) is not determined by \(X\). In fact,
These are not equal almost surely: when \(X=1\) and \(Y=0\), which has probability \(1/4\), the first is \(1/2\) and the second is \(0\). The incorrect reasoning is “\(X\) is known given \(X\), so it can be replaced by any factor in the product.” The correction is to check the measurability of the factor being pulled out: here \(X\) is known given \(X\), but \(Y\) is not.
Check Your Understanding
Use the measurability condition, not just the algebraic form of the product, to decide whether the pull-out property applies.
- If \(X\) is integrable and \(g(Z)\) is bounded, what identity relates \(E[g(Z)X\mid Z]\) to \(E[X\mid Z]\)?
- A partition has events \(A_1,A_2\), and \(Y=4\) on \(A_1\) and \(Y=0\) on \(A_2\). If \(E[X\mid A_1]=3\), what is \(E[YX\mid A_1]\)?
- Why does the general theorem require an integrability condition when the conditioning-measurable factor is unbounded?
- If \(Y\) is not measurable with respect to the conditioning information, can the pull-out theorem be applied to \(E[YX\mid\mathcal G]\)? Explain.
- In the unbounded-factor example, verify directly that \(E[|ZX|]\leq 1\).